This is my first time posting a poll in this Demogame so I am sorry if I have some how screwed it up.

Rome will trade Saltpeter with us, so do we want to trade and upgrade our troops or just attack them?
Please see second post for trading synopsis.

The options are:
War, no Trade,
Trade (Break Deal) then War,
Trade (Wait 20 turns) then War,
Other,
No War,
Abstain.

-the Wolf

Changes Made.

Thank you Furiey for your very detailed synopsis. :goodjob:


These are the deals that are available for Saltpetre:

Which deal we take depends on whether we intend to allow it to run for 20 turns or stop it early. If we are to stop it early we either need a deal where we pay up front so we do not lose our reputation if we stop it, make the Romans declare on us (a gamble they may not do this), or accept that our reputation is dead (something we'd probably prefer to avoid).

Deals that we pay up front so we don't ruin our reputation if we stop early:

Option 1: We give: 873 gold. Rome gives: Saltpetre.

We give: Physics. Rome gives: Saltpetre, 78gpt (all they have), Incense. But if we sell Physics we need to look at other deals available and if we are stopping the deal early do them first so that we don't lose so much gpt when the deal is stopped. Persia for example has lots of gpt on offer, so we should sell it around first eg:

Option 2:
We give Physics, Persia gives 139gpt + 197 gold
We give Physics, France gives 19gpt + 45 gold (this is all the gpt they have so we should still get it all, but we should check the Roman deal before doing this as we do not want to pay Rome gpt)
We give Physics, Rome gives Saltpetre and as much gpt as they will give

Deals that we pay per turn so we either have to let run 20 turns, break and ruin our reputation, or have to get Rome to declare on us:

Option 3: We give: 48gpt + 9 gold. Rome gives Saltpetre
Option 4: We give: Wines, 35gpt + 3gold. Rome gives Saltpetre.
Option 5: We give: Wines, 633 gold. Rome gives Saltpetre.

I think I would prefer to do option 2 and trade Physics as this is a good trade with Persia anyway.

Troop Upgrades

We then need to look at the cost of Upgrades:

28 Knights to Cavalry @ 30 gold each = 840 gold
13 Trebuchets to Cannon @ 30 gold each = 390 gold
Total for Cavalry and Cannon (offensive troops) = 1230 gold

18 Hoplites to Muskets (defensive troops) @ 120 gold each = 2160 gold

Total upgrade cost = 3390 gold

Our current treasury is 3114 gold and we are at 70% science to give Magnetism in 2 turns at -79 gpt.

We can not currently afford to upgrade all our troops, although we could afford to upgrade all our offensive troops and most of the defence. The sale of Physics will bring in further gpt to fund our science spending, and bring in more gold to allow us to upgrade the remainder and still rush culture in Rome when we need to.

As a comparison:
Veteran Knight v Veteran Musket fortified in a City on flat land: 20% chance the Knight wins.
Veteran Cavalry v Veteran Musket fortified in a City on flat land: 38% chance the Cavalry wins, still not a cakewalk, but nearly double the chance of the Knight.

Personally I feel that the Romans will already have upgraded the majority of their Pikes to Muskets already. They have Leonado's so it will only cost 45 gold each compared to the usual cost of 90. Our Hoplites cost us 120 each to upgrade as they are the equivalent of upgrading from Spearmen.

-the Wolf

Take the honorable route and just attack them. Or trade and wait the twenty turns (it will go by sooner than you realize). Following the second option will allow us to address the Persian interlopers within our borders.

There are already far too many unsavory plans being floated around by our leadership --- talks of starving newly acquired cities is the most startling one --- and now we wish to default on a trade deal for an unfair advantage. Is this really the country I presided over a few short terms ago?

Either pursue war on an even playing field right now, or trade for the military advantage and wait out the deal. Anything less would be uncivilized.

With options 1 and 2 we pay up front in full. Rome gets everything they bargained for, but does not have to fulfil its part of the bargain by giving us Saltpetre (and gold in the case of option 2) for the full 20 turns. The information is posted in the discussion thread, and I have updated it to allow for not upgrading Elite troops and added an option 2b for selling Metallurgy or Democracy to France rather than Physics to maximise the return from the tech sale.

Option 2b in particular, even though Rome will end up not fulfilling their end of the bargain. It would be nice if they refused to leave after a demand.

I agree with TimBentley on this one.

War, UNH!, what is it good for? Absolutely everything!

Trade, but only if we give Rome fair value, up front.

-- Ravensfire

A trade where we pay up front is definitely what we need as we do NOT want to destroy our reputation. That is what I also voted based on. In my case Option 2b as it is a good trade for Physics anyway and we sell an older tech to France maximising our returns on the sale.

The most honorable should be is to make the deal now and wait 20 turns. Do we realy want to hurt our reputation and break the deal before the 20 turns are up?

We did trade 2b. Because we paid up front in this deal it will not hurt our reputation to break it. I did not actually declare war however, but stopped on turn 3 (1100 AD) at the point where the troops are as far as I can tell in position.