Using the spreadsheet I put together to track results in the NFL Off/Def Challenge as the foundation I've put together a slightly more complicated version to see how the actual teams are performing.

I've sorted it by team, Defense first:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Offense_Defense_Analysis.PNG

I included defensive points scored in this version -- pts the defense earned for the team via Safeties and TDs off of Interceptions and Fumbles. That gives us the Adj Points total that rewards Ds for scoring and doesn't give the Offense free points.

In the Adj Pts field I've marked team/units that have done better than average Yellow, average Green and below average Blue.

(I've adjusted for teams that have played five games and those who have played only four by comparing those teams separately.)

So you can see at a glance that based just on points scored and surrendered, Green Bay, Oakland, Tampa Bay and Tennessee are all-around terible teams. No duh, right? ;)

But where this is useful is in measuring where teams are weaker than others. For instance Arizona, Detroit, Houston, New York Jets and San Francisco are actually okay on Offense. It's defensively that those teams are losing games.

Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami and Pittsburgh are fine on Defense but they can't do what they need to do Offensively.

That's right, last year's Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh is a crummy team so far this year. I said it. That's what the numbers are telling me.

The most balanced teams all around are San Diego, Philadelphia, Jacksonsville and of course Chicago. They are each in the top third of teams for both points scored and points surrendered. Indy is a great team offensively but only average defensively. They've given up 20 points/game -- that's actually borderline bad.

Carolina and Cincinnati look "fatally flawed" as of week 5. The Panthers are great defensively but can't score (and when Steve Smith doesn't play they can't win.) Cincy looks great offensively but gives up too many points.

And surprise! The best team in the NFC-West is not Seattle. The Rams (for all their flaws) have put up the points offensively to justify the top spot for now. Their 4 and 1 win record beats Seattle's 3 and 1 record too.

Thanks for this info, its actually very interesting to read.

Quick question, what does red mean and why doesn't Baltimore have any color?

I have not factored in strength of schedule yet. For instance, Baltimore kicked off the season with games against three opponents that we know to be weak -- Tampa Bay, Oakland and Cleveland. They struggled against Cleveland (which is not a good sign) and then struggled against a strong team in San Diego. Tonight's game vs Denver will be their toughest yet. Anyway those easy early games helped to get the Ravens off to a great start.

Thanks for this info, its actually very interesting to read.

Quick question, what does red mean and why doesn't Baltimore have any color?

Baltimore and Denver haven't played this week's game yet so those colors are to remind me that Baltimore has played five and Denver has played four when I add their numbers tonight or tomorrow.

Gotcha :)

Here's a simple Power Ranking based on # of wins. I added up each team's total wins and then added up the "total wins" for every opponent they've faced to determine "Points." Then I sorted by Points and Wins.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Win_Total_Analysis.PNG

Denver leads everyone because of the quality of the teams they've beaten. KC, NE and BAL have all won games this year.

At the other end of the spectrum San Diego's three wins don't amount to much because they've been against weak opponents.

Results imply that playoffs will look like this:

AFC-South = Indianapolis + HFA, WC Bye
AFC-West = Denver + WC Bye
AFC-East = New England
AFC-North = Baltimore or Cincinnati

WC, AFC seed 5 = Jacksonville
WC, AFC seed 6 = BAL, CIN or BUF

NFC-North = Chicago + HFA, WC Bye
NFC-East = Philadelphia + WC Bye
NFC-South = New Orleans or Carolina
NFC-West = St. Louis

WC, NFC seed 5 = New York Giants
WC, NFC seed 6 = NO, CAR or MIN

Of course there's still plenty of regular season to go. Should shift quite a bit as the weeks unfold.

Should shift quite a bit as the weeks unfold.

Except for the Bears, that is. They're gonna stay up there for a while, maybe even... until the Super Bowl!

Except for the Bears, that is. They're gonna stay up there for a while, maybe even... until the Super Bowl!

The Bears are great now, but it's a long season and players get hurt...

What happens if Grossman goes down (again)....?

That's a big if. He's a young QB -- his injury last pre-season could be regarded as a fluke.

I don't think he's injury prone, he was just put into some really bad situations early on. Now that he has some receivers to throw the ball to and a brain to know when to just throw it away, I don't foresee him getting hurt anytime soon.

Here's this week's points analysis update:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Offense_Defense_Analysis6.PNG

Here's an update to the power rankings spreadsheet:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Win_Total_Analysis2.PNG

Most of the Division front-runners are also at the top of this power-ranking:

New England
Baltimore
Indianapolis
Denver
Chicago
Seattle

Although New Orleans leads the NFC-South, Carolina has a slightly better power ranking. And the same goes for Philadelphia, who's edged out on this spreadsheet by the New York Giants. At this point the NFL's standings chart puts Dallas ahead of NY even though NY has defeated two divisional opponents. No question Monday Night's game is huge for both teams.

AFC Wildcard front-runners are San Diego, Jacksonville and Cincinnati. This power ranking indicates that JAX is the strongest team of the three. SD and Cincy are tied (although SD is a game ahead of Cincinnati in pursuit of the playoffs.)

So, in the case of the Bears, where do the points, other than the field goal, go? Do you just put all points scored for the offense, or simply add them to the defense?

So, in the case of the Bears, where do the points, other than the field goal, go? Do you just put all points scored for the offense, or simply add them to the defense?

I credited points directly scored by Defense to the Defense by subtracting them from the Points Surrendered. Special Teams points scored are credited to the offense.

Here's the Win total analysis after week 7, a power ranking based on opponents beaten. The more wins your beaten opponents get, the higher your ranking.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Win_Total_Analysis7.PNG

Based on this power ranking the projected Div champs are highlighted in green:

Ind, Chi, Den, NO, NE, NYG, Cin and Sea.

Car, Min, Jax and Bal are front-runners for the wild card spots.

Here's the points analysis through week 7. Teams at the top of the list have scored a lot of points and given up very few. Teams near the bottom have scored few and surrendered many.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Points_Analysis_Week_7.PNG

The color-coding indicates relative standings -- yellow = top-third, green = middle of the pack, blue = bottom-third. So Chicago, San Diego and New England are superior (yellow) both offensively and defensively while Cleveland, Arizona, Houston, Oakland and Tennessee are sucky teams in every possible way. Everyone else is somewhere in between.

Orange indicates that the team has had a Bye week. I've adjusted the relative standings to take that into account. Also the Adjusted Points totals apply points scored by the Defense (upon recovery of a Fumble or Interception) to the Defense.

By x-refing the Power Rankings and the Points Analysis we can see that while Indy is just as undefeated as Chicago it's more generous defense makes it fundamentally weaker. On the other hand, Chicago has faced no opponent stronger than Minnesota this year (and that includes Seattle... :() so they might have a harder time when they face play-off level teams. (Like NYG in week 10.)

Here's the Power Rankings-by-wins, updated for week 8. Teams in green are leading their divisions by the criteria of this spreadsheet (not necessarily officially) and are current favorites to win their Divs.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Win_Total_Analysis8.PNG

Carolina and Atlanta lead the pack in the hunt for the NFC wild card slot, Jacksonville and San Diego lead for wild card in the AFC.

Here's the Points analysis after week 8's games:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Points_Analysis_Week_8.PNG

Here's the Wins Power Ranking after week 9, the official 1/2 way point of the season, and all teams have played exactly eight games.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Win_Total_Analysis9.PNG

Indianapolis pulls way ahead of the pack with no losses and four high-quality wins.

Indy, Baltimore, Chicago, New England, New York Giants, New Orleans and Seattle now lead their divisions on the quality oppnents beaten ranking as well as decisive win totals. Though officially tied in wins, I think Denver leads San Diego with two victories over Div rivals. They also lead SD in quality of wins.

In fact Kansas City and Carolina lead div runner's up SD and Atlanta on this ranking. If these results extend to the end of the season I'd predict a shift in relative positions in the second half.

Jacksonville is competing with KC for the AFC's 2nd WC slot. If I take this chart as gospel I'd predict both KC and JAX beat SD to the post-season even though SD is playoff-worthy. And Carolina and Minnesota ultimately beat Atlanta for the NFC's WC slots.

Seattle's hold on it's Division is the most precarious of all. If St. Louis wins next week here in Qwest Field they are officially tied, but St. Louis has edge on this chart.

Here's the Points analysis after week 9:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Points_Analysis_Week_9.PNG

Chicago, San Diego, New England, NY Giants and Philadelphia have no significant weaknesses in terms of scoring and defense. They score a lot of points and keep opponents from scoring many against them, and/or their defenses make up lost points by scoring. Of these teams only Philly is significantly behind in it's run for the playoffs.

Indianapolis and St. Louis are great on offense but weak defensively. Indy obviously seems to be able to compensate for it, St. Louis not so much (although they could win the NFC-West and make the playoffs.)

Oakland, Buffalo and Minnesota have excellent defenses but are no good at scoring points. Minnesota might be good enough to make the playoffs, but Buffalo probably won't and Oakland certainly won't.

Dallas, New Orleans, Kansas City and Cincinnati have superior offenses but only average defenses. NO and KC look like real contenders for the playoffs, Dallas and Cincy could still go but their window of opportunity is slamming shut fast.

Jacksonville, Baltimore and Denver have superior defenses but only average offenses. All three look likely to make the playoffs, although JAX will go as a WC team, again.

Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Seattle are average offensively and defensively. It looks like Pittsburgh is going to miss the playoffs this year... Atlanta and Seattle could still make it.

Washington, the NY Jets, Green Bay and Detroit have average offenses but weak defenses, making for fun-to-watch shootouts when they play. All are well behind in their runs for the playoffs, despite a good week for Washington.

Miami, Carolina, Cleveland and Tampa Bay are terrible offensively but have average defenses. Of these only Carolina actually seems to have a real shot at the playoffs although they are in a tough situation with four losses. The reason for it is lack of offensive performance.

Tennessee, San Francisco, Houston and Arizona are terrible at both scoring and defending. These teams will likely have excellent draft position going into 2007.

problems w/ Oakland Raiders ......

1. multitudes of problems in a single bundle: a) questionable OC and playcalling; b) O-line that cannot hold water, let alone making holes to generate ground game; c) substandard QB corps; d) no dynamic RB; e) receivers dropping too many passes.

2. stupid offensive penalties killing drives, in addition to poor play executions.

3. severely imbalanced team: good D, but lack of offensive support. if it were not for the D, the Raiders might now have 0-8, instead of 2-6.

4. how is Al Davis going to sort out the O after this grueling season will be interesting? maybe not?!? too many holes to fix in one go.

5. the inability of the Raiders in attracting young, talented coaches down the stretch has been hurting the team.

Very nice work, and interesting reads.

Here's the Wins Power Ranking after week 10:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Win_Total_Analysis10.PNG

Indy leads thanks to it's "never losing games" thing, and having beaten mighty foes the NY Giants, Denver and New England... and BTW all of those were AWAY games.

Chicago is back on top with it's own beating of the NY Giants, away. Only one loss this season but not as tough a schedule as Indy either. Seattle (at home) and NY were it's only opponents with six+ wins so far.

Denver and Baltimore are ahead of the pack. The NY Giants, New England and New Orleans are also leading their Divs but in a tight cluster of opponent's wins totals.

Seattle rounds out the Div leaders but not respectably. It has mostly only beaten easy teams and lost some big games. Right now it looks like this year's wild card weekend "upset" loser.

Wild Card contenders are San Diego, Kansas City, Jacksonville, Carolina and Philadelphia. SD could steal the Div title from Denver when they finally meet this season. KC looks slightly better than Jacksonville, opening up the possibility of two teams from the AFC-West getting WC slots.

Below Philadelphia the quality of wins drops off. NY Jets, Atlanta and Dallas are in position to make a run for the playoffs but they aren't there yet.

Here's the Points analysis after week 10:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Points_Analysis_Week_10.PNG

Chicago, Dallas, New England and Philadelphia have no significant weaknesses in terms of scoring and defense. They score a lot of points and keep opponents from scoring many against them, and/or their defenses make up lost points by scoring. Of these teams Dallas and Philly are behind in the run for the playoffs, but not by much. By x-referencing the chart above, however I can tell you that the quality of Philadelphia's wins has been better than Dallas' overall. I would be less surprised by the Eagles taking the NFC-East than the Cowboys. (Also the Cowboys only just barely have a top-tier defense.)

San Diego, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Pittsburgh are great on offense but only average defensively. Indy obviously seems to be able to compensate for it, SD and NO are doing fine too (and the truth is SD's defense was stingy until week 10's game at Cincinnati.) Barring a miracle Pittsburgh is out of playoff contention.

Baltimore, Jacksonville, Denver and the New York Giants* have excellent defenses but are only average offensively. All of these teams are either in control of their Division or (in Jacksonville's case, stuck with Indianapolis as a Div rival) in control of a wild card spot. If you have to choose, great defense is better than great offense. (*Keeping in mind that the NYG's defense is only elite by a couple points...)

Kansas City, Atlanta, Seattle and Carolina are only average on offense and on defense. That's good enough for Seattle (in the weakest division in the NFL) but definitely not good enough for KC (in the toughest.) And Atlanta and Carolina are tied and stuck a game behind their Div leader NO. X-referencing the chart above it looks to me like Carolina has beaten stronger opponents than Atlanta, and (having beaten NO) has the best chance to take the Div title.

A Cincinnati vs St. Louis game would be the most fun to watch because these teams have superior offenses but weak defenses. That means lots of TDs and a huge final score... but lacking a respectable defense makes it hard for these teams to get to the playoffs much less win them. Neither is likely to upset their Division leaders, and will have a tough time claiming a wild card slot.

Minnesota, Miami, Buffalo and Oakland feature great defenses but terrible offenses -- they can only win games by keeping the score low. Nevertheless, Minnesota is good enough to compete for a wild card spot in the slightly inferior NFC. Miami, Buffalo and Oakland are out of the running and can only hope to play "spoiler" as Miami has for the past two weeks. (Also these three are just barely in the top tier of defensive teams. A couple more points and they'd be "average.")

The New York Jets, Green Bay, Detroit and Washington are respectable offensively but can't stop opponents defensively. The Jets at least are winning games, and with a surprise victory over New England away have serious momentum going for them. I don't think it'll be enough -- they just aren't good enough overall to make the playoffs this year. New England is the better team, and there are plenty more deserving teams in the AFC when it comes to the WC slot. GB has beaten four marginal opponents -- they can't beat strong teams. Detroit and Washington are two of the season's big disappointments, especially the Redskins who were expected to dominate the NFC-East. Won't happen now, and the switch to rookie QB Campbell makes it official.

Cleveland and Tampa Bay are solid defensively but have no offensive capability. They must control their opponent's scoring to have any chance. Both have had one or two surprise wins but neither is a serious playoff contender this year.

Houston, Arizona, San Francisco and Tennessee are the dregs of the league. It's an embarassment to lose to them because they can't score points and they can't keep their opponents from scoring points. Houston leads this bunch with two impressive wins over Div rival (and real playoff contender Jacksonville.) SF actually has four wins but they weren't as impressive. Tennessee can boast a victory over Washington back when it was at full strength and some close games against great teams. Arizona has only a win against terrible SF and a sad "coulda been" against powerful Chicago.

Here's this week's win total analysis:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Win_Total_Analysis11.PNG

Lots of shake-ups -- Indy, Chicago, Baltimore, New England and Seattle (barely!) still hold their div leads. San Diego officially took the lead f/ Denver w/ this week's win. Carolina is now officially tied w/ NO for the NFC-South title, but has defeated more powerful opponents. The New York Giants still lead the NFC-East with a better Div record, but by beating powerful Indianapolis Dallas has the edge in my ranking.

Denver and Kansas City are in the lead for the wild card slots in the AFC. The New York Giants and New Orleans lead in the NFC.

Points analysis after week 11:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Points_Analysis_Week_11.PNG

Chicago, NE, Dallas and Philadelphia are strong on both offense and defense. All but Philly lead or at least are tied for the lead in their divisions too. Philly faces upheaval now that McNabb is injured and likely out for the season -- I'd expect their offensive production to taper off.

SD, Indy, KC and Pittsburgh are strong offensively but only mediocre defensively. SD and Indy rule their Divs. KC is still a strong player. Pittsburgh is unlikely to win enough games to turn around their post-Super Bowl slump.

Baltimore, Jacksonville and Denver are strong defensively but only average offensively. That's good enough to keep each in the running for the play-offs. Baltimore dominates it's Div, Denver is right behind SD and Jacksonville is still a good bet for a WC spot.

New York Giants, Atlanta, Seattle and the New York Jets feature average offenses and average defenses. Seattle leads it's ultra-weak Div, the NY Giants technically lead their tough one, Atlanta and the NY Jets are still contenders for the playoffs, at least for a WC slot, although neither is a front-runner.

NO and Cincy are strong on offense but weak on defense and that is eroding their early promise this season. NO is still in a great postion to take the NFC-South title from Carolina, Cincy's best shot is to try for a WC spot. Fun to watch these two dynamic offenses in a shoot-out.

Carolina, Minnesota and Miami are strong on defense but weak on offense. That's more or less worked for Carolina, who is tied (but slightly ahead in terms of opponents beaten) for first in the NFC-South. Minnesota and Miami both would need a strong rally to compete for WC spots in thier conferences.

St. Louis, Detroit, Washington, Green Bay and San Francisco are average on offense but have weak defenses. None are realistic contenders for the play-offs, although SF and STL have the a chance to win their weak Division if Seattle continues losing games it should win.

Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland and Tampa Bay are weak offensively but have average defenses. The best they'll do this season is spoil someone else's chance to make it.

Houston, Arizona and Tennessee are weak offensively and defensively and have no business winning any games whatsoever.

Here's the Power Rankings based on wins after Week 12:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Win_Total_Analysis12.PNG

Teams in green are leading their divisions, orange teams are the top wild card contenders.

Here's the points analysis after week 12:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Points_Analysis_Week_12.PNG

Third BOYYYYYEEEE

I did not realize Tampa Bay was so bad statistically, they've fallen behind tha Raidahs now. And the only playoff team (currently) who is in the negative, the Carolina Panthers.

You have too much time on your hands Mojo :p

Third BOYYYYYEEEE

I did not realize Tampa Bay was so bad statistically, they've fallen behind tha Raidahs now. And the only playoff team (currently) who is in the negative, the Carolina Panthers.

You have too much time on your hands Mojo :p

Seattle's in the playoffs too! :D

I'm just a man with Excel who loves NFL football.

Updated Defeated Opponents Win Totals analysis after week 13:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Win_Total_Analysis13.PNG

I've highlighted teams that currently lead their Divisions in green, front-runners for the Wild Card slots (based on most Conf wins) in orange.

The Wild Card Race:

AFC, 7 wins each
Den 7-3
Cin 5-3
NYJ 5-4
Jac 4-4
KC 3-5

NFC, 6 wins each
NYG 5-3
Phi 5-3
Atl 4-4
Car 4-5

Here's the Points analysis after week 13:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Points_Analysis_Week_13.PNG

Here's the updated wins total analysis after week 14:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Win_Total_Analysis14.PNG

Teams in Green are Div leaders, teams in Orange are front runners for wild card spots.

Oops. Slight mistake on Chicago. The totals are correct but I forgot to change their win total from 10 to 11. Deal with it. :)

Here's the points total analysis after week 14:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Offense_Defense_Analysis_14.PNG

Indy's Defense slumps into the bottom 10... They are looking less and less like the Super Bowl champion.

Chicago is great all around, but their inconsistency in inexperience and not being an AFC team makes me think it's not going to happen.

Why not San Diego? While they are untouchable offensively they are vulnerable defensively. That's not going to cut it in the post-season.

New England is slightly more balanced than Baltimore, but if you believe that defense wins games, then Baltimore looks like the best.

Jacksonville looks good all around too but they have an inexperienced QB. I don't think they beat the odds and go all the way.

And Cincinnati has most of the pieces in place, except for the critical one -- Defense.

New Orleans and Dallas? NFC teams. Dallas' QB is still getting comfortable. NO is goooooood, but not good enough to beat the best in the AFC.

As of this week my money is on Baltimore to upset.

1. Veteran QB.

2. Defensively Elite.

3. An AFC team, having beaten many AFC teams.

SD will win this one..

Great job Mojo :goodjob:

Quality of wins analysis: Indy leads (barely!) despite it's recent slump. SD and Baltimore look like contenders. New England and Chicago are close behind. Jacksonville is the best team that won't play in the playoffs this year.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Win_Total_Analysis16.PNG

Chicago has been leading all year, but now SD is closing the gap. Baltimore's strong (strongest in the league) defense means they are very well positioned to win the Super Bowl. New England is another balanced, superior team. Jacksonville looks great on paper -- but doesn't have the wins. Indy's defensive struggles mean that their whole post-season is in jeopardy. It's looking like another year Peyton Manning is going to have to deal with an early loss.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Points_Analysis_Week_16.PNG

Here's the final 2006 Regular Season Wins analysis:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Win_Total_Analysis17.PNG

And Points analysis:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/uploads/21881/NFL_Points_Analysis_Week_17.PNG