I had a very strange battle today and I am wondering if someone can tell me the odds of this happening.

My Unit
100 HP Musketman

Their Unit
100 HP Musketman

My Chance to win 86%

I lose the battle AND he is undamaged... what are the odds that this would happen?

I had a very strange battle today and I am wondering if someone can tell me the odds of this happening.

My Unit
100 HP Musketman

Their Unit
100 HP Musketman

My Chance to win 86%

I lose the battle AND he is undamaged... what are the odds that this would happen?

Not often, but it happens to everyone. Even with a 99% odd of winning, your unit can still lose the battle, which happens to me many times. Its so frustrated to see one of my best units die in a battle that he's certain to win.

Very unusual . I rarely build musketmen so don't have much experience with using them in combat . I've seen this happen when I've attacked enemy troops when they have good first strike ability , like samurai ect . but don't know if it's happened with a win chance that high .

Sorry can't help with odds .

My Chance to win 86%

I lose the battle AND he is undamaged... what are the odds that this would happen?
I guess you lose 16 HPs per round, so you lose 7 times in a row.
0.5^7 -> 0.78125%

The highest I have lost a battle at is around 97%. I have probably lost a couple 90-95% battle leaving the unit undamaged. If you play some scenarios with lots of battles it becomes more likely to happen.

I guess you lose 16 HPs per round, so you lose 7 times in a row.
0.5^7 -> 0.78125%

I see how it works, but I had an 86% chance to win the battle (14% chance to lose). Does that mean I had an 86% chance to win each round of the battle? If so then it is 0.14^7 = 0.000001054 (0.0001054%). Someone check the math because this seems awful unlikely!

Each battle round is 50%-50% chance, you win or lose.
A unit dies when it is running out of HPs.
The strength difference is represented by the combat odds.
I've to agree this is deceiving. At 86% combat odds you still
have to win 5 times (the opponent loses 24 HPs per round) to kill
the enemy unit.

If you fight enough battles, you will experience pretty much anything imaginable in terms of combat results. In Civ3, I once had an army with four elite cavalry being owned by a lone spearman on grassland, go calculate the odds of that! That was so annoying I just had to reload the game. I wouldn't reload when I lose a tank to a spear though, as that is an essential part of the Civ series :spear:

The highest I have lost a battle at is around 97%.

The other day I had a level ten grenadier bite the dust with a 99.4% win chance. I was pretty peeved -- I'd raised that little guy up for thousands of years!

Ya well today I took someones capital off the start in multiplayer, but the host had complete kills on and he had a warrior near my base. As he approached with one warrior I finished one in that city and fortified him. Somehow the guys one warrior despite having only an 11% chance of success because he had to attack across a river killed my warrior and took my city, so we basically swapped starting positions. Turned out my starting spot was better also.

Once in a multiplayer game a guy that was about 15 squares away from me send his first warrior attack me. I have 2 warriors in my capital at that time and whip a third that comes out the turns he comes beside my city.

My 3 warriors have strength 1 promotions. His have none and stands in a plain. Odds shows 60ish% for the first warrior. I attack with the 3 warriors, all of them dies and his warrior, at 1.6 strength!!!:mad:, takes my capital.

Death by the hand of the newb that sent his lone exploring warrior attack me... :badcomp:

That same game a second neighbor declared war and attacked my city with 4 warriors and the guy I initially attacked came with 2 and my two defended warriors lived with half health each. After that I didn't feel quite as bad.