Crosspost, I hadn't seen Wotan's latest posting when I wrote my last one, so responding to his latest comments now.

Corinth, two workers now, one will finish goldmine and then road that tile during my turn set the other might help roading towards Athens for a quick reshuffle of forces after Athen has fallen or develop the horse tile for extra hammers?

At size 5, Corinth is going to work cows, 2 farms, 2 scientists. At size 6 it will add the gold mine. So it won't work the horses unless it grows to size 7, or pops a GS, either of which will take a long time. We probably want the horses eventually, but we can do this later with the Athens workers, I think.

5 Workers from Utica will be ours in two turns time. If 2 go towards Djenne to help develop it they could road in the interim while we wait for Djenne to be developed. Three SW to help develop Carthage primarily and other cities in later turn sets. One to mine copper, one to chop hill forest and one to chop grassland forest. Carthage will rush Granary and then start on either Library or a Galley build?

We need to move our forces to Djenne, then conquer it, then wait for it to come out of resistance, before we can make any improvements there. I think you might run out of useful roads to build. At most, we need one North-South route from Carthage through Djenne toward Timbuktu.

Roads double our movement and I am having a pretty hard time understanding what is so important with tile developments so 8 workers or a total of 70+ turns worth of Worker actions during my turn set should be all about improvments other than roads? Eg. When Corinth grow the extra citizen will be put on science duty so it will still work 3 tiles, 2 times Flood Plains and either gold mine or cow or maybe horse should be develop that tile. Corinth has a few tiles to develop but so many so the Workers from Utica cannot help us get a road network? And Athers should fall prior to the end of my turnset adding another batch of Workers. I have always made sure to build roads in any iteration of Civ, why is it so unimportant in CIV? Doubling the speed of units should make a difference, at least that is my opinion.

Roads in Civ3 increased the commerce on their tiles, so they were automatic and needed everywhere. Civ4 is much different, because roads are only used for transportation.

Chopping a forest takes usually 6 worker turns, and generates 45 hammers, until we run out of forests (which won't happen soon). Building a road takes 3 or 4 worker turns, so each road reduces our chopping by 20-25 hammers.

After we conquer everyone on our continent, we're going to have a while to reposition our forces, before we can build galleons. So speed of movement is not so essential except where it helps us conquer more quickly. Building roads that will speed up many of our units moving toward Mansa is probably good. Building roads that connect Carthage to Smurkzdon is also good. Other than that, there are a lot of places we could build roads for some small benefit, but not enough to be worth doing.

I don't have a problem with the suggestion to build roads. What bothered me in your original plan, and to some extent still in the new one, is that you mentioned roads while leaving out things that are much more important, like the second gold mine for Camsmurkz, the banana plantation for Sparta, the dye plantation for Smurkzdon (needed for happiness, as well as increased commerce). Maybe you consider the banana plantation and gold mine "obvious". But we don't know unless you put it in the plan.

If we chop two jungles around Smurkzdon, then we would get an extra health point and we could grow to size 9 without suffering a health penalty. That might be worth doing. We could build another mine on the jungle hill, or a cottage on the jungle river grassland. This would be after the banana plantation and dye plantation.

If we chop two jungles around Smurkzdon, then we would get an extra health point and we could grow to size 9 without suffering a health penalty. That might be worth doing. We could build another mine on the jungle hill, or a cottage on the jungle river grassland. This would be after the banana plantation and dye plantation.
This I like! And will move to start implementing.

EDIT: Firing up the game now. Good to see you online David.

Utica falls without any losses on turn 2.

Hadrumetum falls on turn 3, but we lose an Axeman; 88.6% chance to win. :(
And to my surprise Hanibal is still alive! Where are the remnants of his empire? Northeast?

A few turns later and just prior to attacking athens, a seventh Archer is built in Athens, now we have a very tough task ahead of us. Unless the "elite" Axe participate in the attack we will have to allow for two turns even if we have max luck. And I guess the "MASH" Axe is only committed should it have 99.9% chance?

Absolutely hate this game right now. Check my final turn to understand why. ;) And thanks David for staying up in order to be available should I need assistance. the bad stuff was unfortunately beyond either my own or your realm of influence.

Save (http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm6/Smurkz_SG006_BC0145_01.CivWarlordsSave)

Turn log


0 – 295BC pre-flight
Move Elephant near Utica to clear fog, no seafood in the tile so Utica will be razed.

IBT: Confusianism has been founded in a distant land.

1 – 280BC
Battle of Utica
Elephant attack and kill Archer
Axeman Attack and kill second defender.
Utica is razed and we gain 133 gold.

Add a second Scientist to Corinth.
Move Workers as discussed.

2 – 265BC
Kill the lonely Carthagian Archer since he really disrupt the Workers moving from “Utica”.

3 – 250BC
Smurkzdon Elephant -> Elephant
Rush Granary in Carthage.

Battle of Hadrumetum
Elephant attack and kill Archer
Axeman attack and die.
Spearman finish the redlined Archer.
Hadrumetum is razed and we gain 88 gold.

IBT: Most cultured nations listed, we are in third place after two unknowns. Mansa in fourth, Alexander in fifth and Hannibal in the seventh and last position.

4 – 235BC
Carthage Granary -> Galley
Moving units towards our new target, Djenne. Closing in on Athens. Worker move to next Gold after finishing goldmine near Camsmurkz.

5 – 220BC
Currency finish, we start researching MC.
Oxsmurkz Elephant -> Galley

6 – 205BC
Research to 0%.

IBT: Game suggest we build a Market in Smurkzdon, I reply: we have all the infrastructure we need, thank you!

7 – 190BC
Research to 100%
A seventh Archer appear in Athens. We will need absolutely max luck if we are going to take it in one turn.

IBT: Hinduism founded in a distant land.

8 – 175BC
Forces in position to start attack on Djenne, it has 50% defense from culture so best odds are at roughly 18%. Need to reduce it first so will probably not happen during my turn set.

9 – 160BC
Smurkzdon Elephant -> Elephant.

Battle of Athens
Catapult retreat after combat, not a dent in the Archer it attacked but the 6 additional Archers each got .4 damage.
Elephant -> Archer Win 5.4
Elephant -> Archer Win Unscathed
Elephant -> Archer Win Unscathed Great results so far
Elephant -> Archer Lose 85.6% chance Archer at .6 left
Elephant -> Archer Win 2.6
With 2 fully fresh Elephants I call off the attack since only one Axe is expendable and the odds are 36.2% Next turn we have 2 Archers at full strength and a wounded archer to deal with so should result in a conquest.

10 – 2290BC
Battle of Athens cont.
Elephant -> Archer Lose 74.3% Archer 3.0! Not a dent in it
Elephant -> Archer Lose 74.3% Archer 3.0! Not a dent in it this time either!!!! Two attacks, 12 consecutive hits, without any in return. Roughly 6% chance of both surviving and they are absolutely fresh?????? Unbelievable, I stop and post to allow the team to have a say.

Continue reducing Djenne but absolutely will not attack with my current luck. meeting in 20 mins so have to rush now. Later guys. Hope I have not done anything bad that was in my power to influence. the attacks in my final turn II sure hope you don't regard as a mistake.

Here is your Session Turn Log from 295 BC to 145 BC:

Turn 147, 295 BC: Logging Game to File: SGOTM6.txt
Turn 147, 295 BC: Confucianism has been founded in a distant land!

Turn 148, 280 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (9.60) vs Hannibal's Archer (5.67)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Combat Odds: 95.1%
Turn 148, 280 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 148, 280 BC: (Plot Defense: +14%)
Turn 148, 280 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 148, 280 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 15 (70/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 15 (55/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Churchill's War Elephant has defeated Hannibal's Archer!
Turn 148, 280 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.00) vs Hannibal's Archer (3.27)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Combat Odds: 88.2%
Turn 148, 280 BC: (Plot Defense: +14%)
Turn 148, 280 BC: (Fortify: +20%)
Turn 148, 280 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 148, 280 BC: (City Attack: -75%)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (76/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (52/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (28/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (84/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (4/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (0/100HP)
Turn 148, 280 BC: Churchill's Axeman has defeated Hannibal's Archer!
Turn 148, 280 BC: You have captured Utica!!!
Turn 148, 280 BC: You have destroyed the city of Utica!!!

Turn 149, 265 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.50) vs Hannibal's Archer (3.75)
Turn 149, 265 BC: Combat Odds: 86.6%
Turn 149, 265 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 149, 265 BC: (Plot Defense: +50%)
Turn 149, 265 BC: (Combat: -25%)
Turn 149, 265 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (84/100HP)
Turn 149, 265 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (68/100HP)
Turn 149, 265 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (52/100HP)
Turn 149, 265 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (36/100HP)
Turn 149, 265 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (76/100HP)
Turn 149, 265 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (20/100HP)
Turn 149, 265 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (52/100HP)
Turn 149, 265 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (28/100HP)
Turn 149, 265 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (4/100HP)
Turn 149, 265 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (0/100HP)
Turn 149, 265 BC: Churchill's Axeman has defeated Hannibal's Archer!

Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (9.60) vs Hannibal's Archer (5.58)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Combat Odds: 95.3%
Turn 150, 250 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 150, 250 BC: (Plot Defense: +11%)
Turn 150, 250 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 150, 250 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 26 (74/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 26 (48/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 26 (22/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 26 (0/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's War Elephant has defeated Hannibal's Archer!
Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.00) vs Hannibal's Archer (3.33)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Combat Odds: 87.5%
Turn 150, 250 BC: (Plot Defense: +11%)
Turn 150, 250 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 150, 250 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 150, 250 BC: (City Attack: -75%)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (76/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (52/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (84/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (28/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (68/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (4/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (52/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (36/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (20/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (4/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 16 (0/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Hannibal's Archer has defeated Churchill's Axeman!
Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's Spearman (4.40) vs Hannibal's Archer (0.22)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Combat Odds: 100.0%
Turn 150, 250 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 150, 250 BC: (Plot Defense: +11%)
Turn 150, 250 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 150, 250 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Hannibal's Archer is hit for 24 (0/100HP)
Turn 150, 250 BC: Churchill's Spearman has defeated Hannibal's Archer!
Turn 150, 250 BC: You have captured Hadrumetum!!!
Turn 150, 250 BC: You have destroyed the city of Hadrumetum!!!

Turn 151, 235 BC: You have discovered Currency!
Turn 151, 235 BC: The borders of Carthage have expanded!

Turn 154, 190 BC: Sparta will grow to size 6 on the next turn
Turn 154, 190 BC: Camsmurkz has grown to size 5

Turn 155, 175 BC: Your Catapult has reduced the defenses of Djenne to 44%!
Turn 155, 175 BC: Your Catapult has reduced the defenses of Djenne to 39%!
Turn 155, 175 BC: Your Catapult has reduced the defenses of Athens to 0%!
Turn 155, 175 BC: Smurkzdon will grow to size 9 on the next turn
Turn 155, 175 BC: Smurkzdon will become unhealthy on the next turn
Turn 155, 175 BC: Sparta has grown to size 6
Turn 155, 175 BC: Corinth has grown to size 6
Turn 155, 175 BC: Corinth has become unhappy

Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's Catapult (5.00) vs Alexander's Archer (7.35)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Combat Odds: 7.8%
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Your Catapult has caused collateral damage! (6 Units)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's Catapult is hit for 24 (76/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's Catapult is hit for 24 (52/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's Catapult is hit for 24 (28/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's Catapult is hit for 24 (4/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Your Catapult has withdrawn from combat with a Archer!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (10.40) vs Alexander's Archer (7.35)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Combat Odds: 85.2%
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Extra Combat: -30%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 16 (84/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 16 (68/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (77/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (54/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (31/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (8/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (0/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant has defeated Alexander's Archer!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Your War Elephant has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (9.60) vs Alexander's Archer (6.46)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Combat Odds: 92.5%
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (65/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (42/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (19/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (0/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant has defeated Alexander's Archer!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Your War Elephant has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (8.80) vs Alexander's Archer (6.46)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Combat Odds: 83.8%
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 22 (66/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 22 (44/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 22 (22/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 22 (0/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant has defeated Alexander's Archer!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Your War Elephant has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (8.80) vs Alexander's Archer (6.20)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Combat Odds: 85.3%
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (83/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (65/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (42/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (19/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (66/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (49/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (32/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (15/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (0/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's War Elephant!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Your War Elephant has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (8.80) vs Alexander's Archer (6.20)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Combat Odds: 85.3%
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (83/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (65/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (42/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (66/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (49/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (32/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (19/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (0/100HP)
Turn 156, 160 BC: Churchill's War Elephant has defeated Alexander's Archer!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Your War Elephant has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Your Catapult has reduced the defenses of Djenne to 33%!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Your Catapult has reduced the defenses of Djenne to 28%!
Turn 156, 160 BC: Smurkzdon will grow to size 9 on the next turn
Turn 156, 160 BC: Smurkzdon will become unhealthy on the next turn

Turn 157, 145 BC: Your Catapult has reduced the defenses of Djenne to 22%!
Turn 157, 145 BC: Your Catapult has reduced the defenses of Djenne to 17%!
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (9.60) vs Alexander's Archer (7.11)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Combat Odds: 74.3%
Turn 157, 145 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 157, 145 BC: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 157, 145 BC: (Plot Defense: +27%)
Turn 157, 145 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 157, 145 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 157, 145 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (83/100HP)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (66/100HP)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (49/100HP)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (32/100HP)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (15/100HP)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (0/100HP)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's War Elephant!
Turn 157, 145 BC: Your War Elephant has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (9.60) vs Alexander's Archer (7.11)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Combat Odds: 74.3%
Turn 157, 145 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 157, 145 BC: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 157, 145 BC: (Plot Defense: +27%)
Turn 157, 145 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 157, 145 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 157, 145 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (83/100HP)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (66/100HP)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (49/100HP)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (32/100HP)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (15/100HP)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (0/100HP)
Turn 157, 145 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's War Elephant!
Turn 157, 145 BC: Your War Elephant has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 157, 145 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 44 ? for Carthage.
Turn 157, 145 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 44 ? for Carthage.

I have no complaint, I probably would have done what you did. There was probably a mistake in my turnset in not sending one more elephant toward Athens.

We got clams and fish from Carthage, so clearing jungles to improve health in Smurkzdon is not really an issue, I forgot about that.

I don't think the bad luck at Athens is a huge setback, overall I'm still pretty happy with the results of this turnset. Good job. Carthage is doing well. We need to crank up revenues and build some Wealth, but I think we have an excellent change of getting Optics by the time our 2 GS are ready.

One thing I would have done differently is I wouldn't have chopped the forest 2S of Carthage, I would have saved it for when we get Astronomy so we can chop galleys. This is the kind of thing that could be brought out in a plan discussion (but it's hard to cover every detail).

Looks good to me. The RNG was going to hit us sometime again - though after the jungle rice and this, it seems like we deserve good luck now.

Do people think we can take Athens with the current force after healing? Or do we need reinforcements?

Should the worker south of Carthage mine the hill for the hammers, or move north to help with the spices?

In the light of hindsight, I do think the second elephant attack was a mistake. After the first elephant lost completely, we weren't going to be in good shape even if the second elephant won. We would have then been left with attacking a full-strength archer with axe (probably losing), and then throwing in the wounded elephants. We could have lost everything that way.

But it's not a huge mistake, I think any of us could have tried it this way.

Now I think we probably do need reinforcements. And they are very far away. :( By the time our reinforcements arrive, he will have built two or three new archers.

In eight turns, we could have one more elephant (from Sparta) and the new catapult from Corinth (if we move a citizen temporarily, to generate extra hammers to finish it this turn). But is that really enough? He will probably have 2 new archers by then?

In 12 turns, we could send 4 elephants (six total at Athens), plus the new catapult (2 total). That would certainly be enough. But then will we be able to take Djenne?

In the light of hindsight, I do think the second elephant attack was a mistake.
Yes, totally agree. I can only say I was taken by surprise and that in combination with time getting pretty tight for me made it a stupid choice. At least I stopped after two attacks. ;)

Is unkle around? If he needs to switch, I can sub. However, I won't be able to really take the time to look at the game until Wednesday night, post a plan perhaps on Thursday and play on Friday?

:cringe: Ouch, that's really bad luck. Can't say I wouldn't have done the same thing though... So overall a solid turnset Wotan! :goodjob:

I can't check the save until tomorrow morning so I can't see just how bad it is. Am I correct that we have two wounded elephants, one axe and a medic against 3 archers? If so then I think we should heal up for ~2 turns and then attack again. If the alternative is to wait 12 turns or more then I don't see what we have to lose really.

I don't have the save here, but I do remember that in addition to the forces you list, we have a catapult at 0.2 health. In two turns, it will be near 50% health and could suicide to start the attack.

Ah, that's good news. All the more reason to attack!

Who's up ? Is that you Niklas ? Did you "get it" ?

I cannot really work on the game before next monday, so please swap me until then, if Chris is okay.

unkle is 'up' but we can switch. This is my official 'got it.'

If anyone has suggestions or comments for the upcoming turnset, please go ahead and post them. I'll only be able to spare a few minutes here and there until late Wednesday evening. It's possible I can post a plan Wednesday evening if there's been sufficient discussion, and play the set Thursday evening. A more likely scenario is posting a turnset Thursday evening and playing on Friday evening.

No, unkle is right, I'm up. :p

Current Roster and Schedule:
Niklas - UP! (Jan 25)
ChrisShaffer - On Deck! (Jan 28)
unkle - Warming up (Jan 31)
zyxy (Feb 3)
DaviddesJ (Feb 6)
Wotan (Feb 9)

So yes, this is a got it. I'll look over the save tomorrow morning. But my tentative plan is indeed to attack Athens again in 2 turns, unless someone talks me out of it. ;)

EDIT: Btw Wotan, your last turn is 145 BC and not 2290 BC right? ;)

oh, whoops, no problem :)

If unkle still needs a substitute this weekend, I can take it.

Chris,

let's do that. Seems like I m going to be *very* busy this week. So if that's ok with you, we should swap (Niklas, if you can update roster...).

Thanks a lot :)

I am quite skeptical about attacking 3 archers with 2 elephants, axe, catapult, medic. And he might well have 4 by then, he's been cranking them out pretty fast.

The good news is, I think, the catapult's collateral damage is not reduced if it's damaged (right?). So if we sacrifice the catapult, we'll likely be up against two wounded archers behind the fresh one (wounded catapult won't do much direct damage).

The two elephant attacks will be in the 70% range, most often we win one and lose one. Then we have an axe with only combat 1 against the 3rd archer, usually we lose this too. Now we have our invaluable medic against two wounded archers, we take some risk in attacking (possibly a substantial risk, depending on wounds), and we still don't capture the city.

And that's if he has 3 archers not 4.

We could easily lose a Combat 3 elephant, a catapult, and an axe, while reducing the defenders by only one archer. Then we have to send that many more units to take the city later.

If we send 3 more elephants to take Athens in 12 turns, we should be able to have road to Athens by then, so all of those units could heal and still reach Timbuku for final assault there within 25 turns from now.

An unfortunate aspect of delaying conquest of Athens is we don't connect stone for HG. I guess we should build Wealth in Camsmurkz after aqueduct, until we connect stone. Too bad to delay HG, though.

Ok, looking over the save.

At Athens, the top gun defender will be a C2 archer, or possibly a C1 CG1 archer (upgraded after killing two elephants). Assuming a C2 archer, it will have strength 3.6 if fully healed, and +125% defenses from fortified, city and hill. Our top gun attacker will be a C3 elephant with strength 10.4. It will have ~71% chance to win. However, if that archer is wounded 10% from the catapult attack, the odds increase to ~85%. If he is wounded 20%, the odds increase to ~94%.

Our C2 Elephant has roughly 10% lower win chance all over against the same opposition, i.e. ~65-75-85.

Our C1 axe has ~7-17-22% chance against that opposition. If he's facing a C1 archer, those chances increase to ~16-21-27%. But even in the worst case (unhurt C2 archer) he has ~60% chance of doing 2+ hits on the defender, putting it at 68% health, and ~40% chance of doing 3+ hits, putting it at 52%.

Based on the above, my suggestion is thus the following. Heal up our forces for two turns (can cats be healed by the medic even if they bombard?). Assuming Alex hasn't built another archer, suicide the cat and attack with the elephants. If we're facing two C2 archer, attack with the C2 elephant first. If either elephant loses, immediately call off the remaining attacks. If both win, attack with the axe, most likely losing. If the medic then has 90+% chance of winning, attack. Otherwise wait for another turn or two, and then attack again with the elephants.

My reasoning for wanting to attack is that if we win, we'll have saved a lot of time. If we don't win, we'll have to wait a long time anyway, and if we wait 12 turns or 15 turns for a few extra elephants (replacing those we would kill here and now), that's no big a difference. But 2 turns compared to 12 turns is definitely a bit difference.

Thoughts and comments on that? I'll go over the rest of the save and post a more thorough plan later.

I believe the medic will health the catapult 15% each turn, even if it bombards.

I support the plan to attack. The benefits are significant.

I am skeptical that you get healing if you bombard, but will investigate.

I'm not sure I understand what significant benefits we get by capturing Athens sooner. It's going to be size 2 when we get it, it will take a long time to contribute much economically. The biggest effect of taking it sooner would be not diverting other forces down there. Conversely, the biggest cost is that if we lose a catapult and our most promoted elephant, to no effect, then we have to divert even more units down there and it will take even longer to fall and tie us up longer. I'm more inclined to play it safe, just because safe seems good enough.

If you want to attack, I would attack with weaker elephant first, at least that way we are more likely to lose the more expendable unit, and if it wins then the chance of the stronger elephant winning next is very high.

I'll be bummed if the net result is losing our medic, though.

Elsewhere, Sparta should switch from granary to wealth, and Camsmurkz build wealth after aqueduct until we have stone. I also think we should build wealth after galley in Carthage. Rather than put 135 hammers into library, I think we would rather have the 135 gold. We might pop rush library if we hit happiness limit. The plains hill mine looks useful, since we have so much food and not too much to do with it (no point in another GP farm).

Alright, here's a more thorough plan:

Cities
Smurkzdon Elephant -> wealth ; grows in one, work what? no good tiles, maybe scientist for the bpt?
Oxmurkz Galley -> Galley
Camsmurkz Aqueduct -> wealth ; work gold over forest when mine completes.
Sparta wealth
Corinth Catapult -> wealth
Carthage Galley -> wealth ; work copper and horses instead of food-high tiles after growth. 8 turns until whip UH runs out, probably won't whip a lib though.
Djenne Granary for fast growth after capture.

Workers
Worker near Smurkzdon should either fix a riverside cottage or mine another hill. Both require clearing a jungle first. Alternative is to let Smurkzdon hire a scientist for +3 bpt. I would favor mining the riverside hill though.

Worker between Cam/Don/Sparta will extend the road SE and E.

Camsmurkz worker will finish gold mine, then move to help the roaders.

Sparta worker will finish camp, then road.

Corinth worker road towards Athens?=

Carthage workers will build mine on plains hill and plantation on spices.

Workers NW of Carthage will road NW-wards, but run towards Djenne to start working there as soon as borders expand. Plantation on dyes first since that's in the first ring of tiles.

Djenne worker will complete the last road segment, then move to clear the jungle on the rice until borders expand.

Any particular stretches of road that we want to see more than others?

Military

Implement plan from above to hopefully capture Athens. Abort if things go awry. Yes I plan to attack with the C2 elephant first.

Bombard Djenne for 2.5 turns (->2%), then suicide cat and move in to kill.

Biggest issue as I see it, in what direction do we move elephants during the 2 turns until we know about Athens? I'm inclined to move the dumbos away from Athens, if they have to turn around they will still likely be there too early since we'd need more reinforcements then.

Research
MC -> Machinery

Anything I've forgotten?

I think there are several benefits to taking Athens early.

1) No need to commit additional forces to the fight - newly built units can go to Mansa.

2) Stone allows Camsmurkz to begin building the Hanging Gardens.

3) Three workers captured earlier = 20+ turns of work.

Comments on the plan:

Smurkzdon scientist makes sense for now. We should chop the jungle 1E and mine the hill, then work that.

Note that Djenne is a holy city and cultural borders will expand in 3 turns after resistance.

After we suicide both catapults, the next one will be in Corinth. If you have road choices, building to deliver that catapult to Timbuktu would be nice.

I'd move the current elephants north for now - as you say, if they need to turn around, two turns won't matter much.

I'd move the current elephants north for now - as you say, if they need to turn around, two turns won't matter much.

I'm sorry, I think this is completely backwards. Our chance of taking Athens soon is quite small --- as I understand Niklas's plan, it's something like 3 to 1 against. (First, Alex has to build no more archers in the next two turns, then, both of our elephant attacks have to win, then, our C1 axe has to wound the last archer enough that we are willing to risk the Medic, then, the Medic axe has to win. So maybe that's 75%*75%*75%*75%*90% = 28%.) Then, the downside of not having forces in motion to take Athens is that it takes even longer for them to get down there, and we are facing even more archers, and we have to commit even more units, which takes even longer. And, then, all of those units need to finish off Athens and make their way all the way back to Timbuktu (unless you think we can take it without them, which seems pretty unlikely to me). The longer we delay that, the longer we delay our final subjugation of the island and full preparations for launching overseas, which is now only 40 turns away.

As I posted earlier, if we send units toward Athens now, and they have to walk all the way there, take the city, and then walk all the way back to Timbuktu, that's still only about 25 turns, which gives us time to regroup after finishing Mansa, clean up any remaining cities, and poise ourselves to go overseas. But if we spend two turns moving units away from Athens rather than toward it, and then they take an extra two turns to reach Athens, and we allow another turn or two after that for the extra units we need to send because he's built more defenders in the meantime, then we're talking about a very considerable delay in taking Timbuktu, which is starting to become a problem for our timeline.

And remember that this is the common case, it's much more likely than a quick conquest for which we don't need extra units.

It just seems to me that there is an excessive level of optimism here, when we encounter perfectly normal luck, or even slightly bad luck, we're going to have positioned ourselves badly.

I am pretty nervous about accepting a likely loss of a catapult and an elephant to most likely kill just one archer, in exchange for a small chance of taking Athens quickly. I'm worried it's going to deplete our overall forces that we need elsewhere. But I'll go along with it if that's what people want. But I definitely think we need to be planning for the worst case, or at least for the expected, average case, not planning for the best case and then regrouping if we don't get it.

The key question in my mind is, can we send enough forces toward Athens now to be confident of taking it when they get there, and also confident of taking Djenne promptly? Taking Djenne soon seems more important than taking Athens soon, because it will contribute considerably more to our economy (although it's true that Athens comes with workers). The main argument against an early attack on Athens is that, in order to plan for the likely failure of that attack, we have to divert more forces toward Athens now, not less, and that means that the attack on Djenne is in trouble.

The alternative approach would be to concentrate on Djenne now, and then send sufficient forces from Djenne to Athens after the former falls. The problem is that, I fear, the time to conquer Djenne, then heal, then walk to Athens, then heal, then walk to Timbuktu, is going to be too long to be acceptable. And will we have enough forces to take out Mansa on schedule?

Hope I'm not being too critical here, I am just trying to be realistic.

Realistic is good. Your 28% estimate is kind of scary.

p.s. note that the line you quoted from me was in response to Niklas query:

Biggest issue as I see it, in what direction do we move elephants during the 2 turns until we know about Athens? I'm inclined to move the dumbos away from Athens, if they have to turn around they will still likely be there too early since we'd need more reinforcements then.

Smurkzdon Elephant -> wealth ; grows in one, work what? no good tiles, maybe scientist for the bpt?
Oxmurkz Galley -> Galley

I would work the lake tile in Smurkzdon (2f 2c). Second choice would be grassland forest (2f 1h). At least until we build a mine or cottage. Either of these seems way better than scientist, to me.

When you talk about shifting from elephants to wealth, I think you're underestimating how many elephants we need to conquer Mansa. Skirmishers on hills are tough. In my opinion, our barracks cities (Smurkzdon and Oxsmurkz) have to build elephants for the foreseeable future. We might need about a dozen for attacking Timbuktu, if he piles up lots of skirmishers (and spears??) there.

Also, I think that if you extrapolate forward, you'll find that we're on track to get Optics within 40 turns without these cities building wealth. And we don't get much benefit from getting Optics any sooner.

I can see the benefit in building a second west-coast galley, one to explore north and one to go south. But is this a luxury we can do without? In 40 turns, we should be able to map what's accessible both north and south. And upgrading galleys is going to be expensive, we will probably find it more feasible to crank out new galleons, so the galleys don't have much value except local exploration (if we're assuming we need Astronomy to reach enemies).

If consensus is to go ahead with a second ship on the west coast, I would probably suggest either trireme (for fighting barbs) or workboat (at least it's cheap), instead of a galley (since we don't need more transport?). We haven't seen any barbarian galleys yet, I don't know when those are likely to appear.

Camsmurkz Aqueduct -> wealth ; work gold over forest when mine completes.
Sparta wealth
Corinth Catapult -> wealth
Carthage Galley -> wealth ; work copper and horses instead of food-high tiles after growth. 8 turns until whip UH runs out, probably won't whip a lib though.
Djenne Granary for fast growth after capture.

This all sounds ok, although Djenne will also have a lot of commerce and could use a library. How many forests are in Djenne's fat cross, for chopping?

Workers
Worker near Smurkzdon should either fix a riverside cottage or mine another hill. Both require clearing a jungle first. Alternative is to let Smurkzdon hire a scientist for +3 bpt. I would favor mining the riverside hill though.

I don't have the game open now, but I don't think Smurkzdon has another river hill available.

Worker between Cam/Don/Sparta will extend the road SE and E.

Camsmurkz worker will finish gold mine, then move to help the roaders.

Sparta worker will finish camp, then road.

Corinth worker road towards Athens?

Carthage workers will build mine on plains hill and plantation on spices.

Workers NW of Carthage will road NW-wards, but run towards Djenne to start working there as soon as borders expand. Plantation on dyes first since that's in the first ring of tiles.

Djenne worker will complete the last road segment, then move to clear the jungle on the rice until borders expand.

Any particular stretches of road that we want to see more than others?

It seems to me the most important roads are the ones conveying units toward Athens and Timbuktu. So, SE from Smurkzdon between the mountains, to near Sparta, then branching SW toward Athens and NE toward Timbuktu. I can't draw an exact sketch now. Roads around Carthage don't seem so important at the moment, we are neither sending units down there nor bringing them up from there.

Military

Implement plan from above to hopefully capture Athens. Abort if things go awry. Yes I plan to attack with the C2 elephant first.

Bombard Djenne for 2.5 turns (->2%), then suicide cat and move in to kill.

Doesn't Djenne have just 2 skirmishers now? Suicide cat doesn't have much use against small stacks, if there are only 2 defenders then you just get one collateral attack in addition to the direct damage (right?). Doesn't seem like a big help. I'd rather attack with units that can hope to win, and save the cats that we can use in several other ways.

If Djenne gets a 3rd defender before we are ready to attack it, then I'm not sure we have enough units there to take it. But I don't think we can get more in just 2 turns? I apologize for not viewing the exact situation.

What are your thoughts about the barb city? Just ignore it?

I think I remember a third skirmisher appearing in Djenne at the end of my turn set. It is a very tough nut to crack I guess. But there are two Cats there so we should be able to get two of the defender to about 75% strength if both attack prior to other units moving in.

Sacrificing two catapults would be painful, especially if we might also use two at Athens. That's all of our cats, plus the one about to finish at Corinth. We would need to build several more just to finish off Mansa. I guess I was assuming we wouldn't sacrifice any catapults at Djenne, seems like a big cost just for ~12hp on each of 2 units (plus some direct damage).

I guess we could get lucky and have one withdraw, like the one at Athens.

I would work the lake tile in Smurkzdon (2f 2c). Second choice would be grassland forest (2f 1h). At least until we build a mine or cottage. Either of these seems way better than scientist, to me.
Do we really need more growth here? Normally I'd agree with you, but it seems right now what we really need is commerce. 2f 2c > 3 b but 3b > 2c if food is irrelevant.

When you talk about shifting from elephants to wealth, I think you're underestimating how many elephants we need to conquer Mansa. Skirmishers on hills are tough. In my opinion, our barracks cities (Smurkzdon and Oxsmurkz) have to build elephants for the foreseeable future. We might need about a dozen for attacking Timbuktu, if he piles up lots of skirmishers (and spears??) there.
You are probably right, especially with Athens still looming ahead of us. I'll go for elephants in Smurkzdon and Omurkz during my turnset (the latter after galley).

I can see the benefit in building a second west-coast galley, one to explore north and one to go south. But is this a luxury we can do without? In 40 turns, we should be able to map what's accessible both north and south. And upgrading galleys is going to be expensive, we will probably find it more feasible to crank out new galleons, so the galleys don't have much value except local exploration (if we're assuming we need Astronomy to reach enemies).
I wanted to build more galleys for upgrading, nothing else. But that can wait until we get closer to Astro.

This all sounds ok, although Djenne will also have a lot of commerce and could use a library. How many forests are in Djenne's fat cross, for chopping?
I'll have a look later, but it's plenty. I think granary takes precedence though, since none of the good commerce tiles are improved yet.

I don't have the game open now, but I don't think Smurkzdon has another river hill available.
Weird, I was sure I checked that, don't have the save open now either. But a non-river hill is also better.

It seems to me the most important roads are the ones conveying units toward Athens and Timbuktu. So, SE from Smurkzdon between the mountains, to near Sparta, then branching SW toward Athens and NE toward Timbuktu. I can't draw an exact sketch now. Roads around Carthage don't seem so important at the moment, we are neither sending units down there nor bringing them up from there.
Sounds reasonable, then I know how to prioritize.


Doesn't Djenne have just 2 skirmishers now? Suicide cat doesn't have much use against small stacks, if there are only 2 defenders then you just get one collateral attack in addition to the direct damage (right?). Doesn't seem like a big help. I'd rather attack with units that can hope to win, and save the cats that we can use in several other ways.

If Djenne gets a 3rd defender before we are ready to attack it, then I'm not sure we have enough units there to take it. But I don't think we can get more in just 2 turns? I apologize for not viewing the exact situation.
There are indeed 3 defenders at Djenne, and it will be a tough nut to crack. I was wondering whether we had enough units here, but since no one had suggested otherwise I sort of assumed we had counted. My bad. We have only one elephant, three axes and one spear, against three hilltop defenders. Without a suicide attack there's no way we're going to take the town. With one suicide attack, it'll be touchy, but I didn't think we could spare the second, we need someone to bombard Timbuktu.

Regarding Athens, I'm well aware that we are against the odds. My wish to move the units away comes from the idea that if I lose at Athens, the dumbos we have in the vicinity right now won't be enough to take it. So even if the closest three elephants move away, they will still be back at Athens before we have gotten enough newly-built units down there to help them.

Another idea is that if the attack on Athens fails (likely), how about taking out Mansa first? We likely want our units to end near the west coast anyway, so we can regroup at Athens instead of after taking Timbuktu.

What are your thoughts about the barb city? Just ignore it?
Yes. Do we want it? Another GP farm seems like a waste at this point. And it doesn't seem much of a threat to me. Do you argue we should attack it?

Smurkzdon's remaining hill is not on a river. I would still mine it though - it's the next best tile.

Why would we build a library in Djenne? Are we planning to research past Astronomy? I asked this before and nobody answered.

Assuming we don't research after Astronomy, we should have plenty of money to upgrade the galleys Niklas wants to build.

Barb city is too late at this point. Ignore it.

Djenne has four forests in the fat cross.

Nice play, Wotan!

I agree with David that an attack on Athens looks very risky. There is also the danger of WW.

Why do the elephants need to go north? There is no point in going to Timbuktu ahead of any catapults. And if we want to explore, I suggest to train a chariot somewhere, mainly because it is faster.

Djenne also looks risky. The top skirmisher defends at nearly 10! But we have two elephants that can reach it in 5 turns.

Smurkzdon cottage looks better than hill, because the town can grow twice with current happiness/health. The lake is needed by Oxsmurkz in a short while. The cottage will get another 3 commerce very soon.

Yes, ignore the barb town now. We might take it later when we get near Astro - it can whip a few galleons maybe.
Btw, there is another barb town NE of Oxsmurkz, between the cow and spice.

I am well aware that Athens will be risky, and that the normal outcome will be that we will fail the attack. I'm not trying to argue that we will probably win, I'm arguing that I think we should take the chance anyway, for the potential benefit of having Athens sooner.

Having looked at the save again, I have sketched a proposal for a strategy that focuses on Timbuktu before Athens. Please comment.

First of all, attacking Djenne right now is too risky. Waiting 5 turns for two more elephants to join the attack seems like the best option to me. Thus I would let both catapults bombard once, and after that send one of them on towards Timbuktu. The second catapult bombards 3 times more to get the defenses down to 2%, and then the attackers move in, without suiciding any cat. We should have enough units to take it anyway, assuming he doesn't build more Skirmishers in those 5 turns.

After Djenne, our forces move on Timbuktu. The cat we send will be in position and can start bombarding 8 turns from now. If we capture Djenne on turn 5 from now, the roads will let the second catapult reach Timbuktu on turn 10 and start bombarding on turn 11. That means the defenses will be gone on turn 13, making that the target for attacking Timbuktu. Make that turn 15 instead, and assuming we lose one elephant at Djenne (haven't checked the propbabilities yet), and we could have 6 elephants, two cats and possibly a few axes ready to attack. That includes time for healing after Djenne.

Theoretically our forces at Timbuktu could reach Athens in time to attack 9 turns later. That requires perfect roading, and no time to heal. In reality we might expect it to take ~13 turns, allowing for healing. That means we could in this scenario expect to capture Athens within 30 turns from now. That's not long before Astronomy, and much later than we would have wanted.

In comparison, assuming we want to be secure in taking Djenne first and retarget our troops for Athens after that, we can expect to take Athens within 20 turns from now, but not within 15. Then the same 10 turns hold for the other way around - 10 turns to reach Timbuktu in the best case means we'll take it in ~35 turns.

I haven't included Kumbi Saleh in this at all, but I don't see it as a problem.

Thoughts and comments?

Since we're poised to take Djenne, and it's worth quite a bit to us, it makes sense to me to focus on that, and I agree we need to send more units there, rather than sending those elephants south toward Athens.

However, you should bear in mind that it's fairly likely that Djenne will have built another defender, if you aren't ready to attack it until five turns from now.

After that, I think that expecting to take Timbuktu with six elephants, two catapults, and a few axes, is probably unrealistic.

In your plan, what are you sending to escort the catapult to Timbuktu? The escorting units will have to be taken from the attack on Djenne, where we don't have any to spare. So I'm not sure this is so practical.

Beyond the cities you mentioned, we still have at least one more of Hannibal's cities to attack, and probably at least one more Mansa city we haven't found yet.

How quickly can we put a road in place from Djenne to Athens, so that we can send surviving units from Djenne to conquer Athens, and then quickly back to Timbuktu? That still seems more practical, to me, than the reverse.

I think food in Smurkzdon is definitely useful. If we hit the happiness limit, we can always convert food to hammers by pop rushing an elephant.

Expecting that we will have lots of gold for upgrades, after Astronomy, seems pretty optimistic to me. We're going to build a big surge of units (elephants and catapults) right around this time, our support costs are going to keep going up and up, and the towns that had been building wealth, we will want to switch to building units.

Chris may be right that library in Djenne is too late to be useful, although we could gain 4-5 beakers for 20-25 turns, which is not a trivial payoff. But, the longer it takes, the less valuable it is, and we have better things for our workers to do, in the short term, than chopping forests for a library. So I would probably agree with skipping that---i.e., just build granary, then wealth.

In your plan, what are you sending to escort the catapult to Timbuktu? The escorting units will have to be taken from the attack on Djenne, where we don't have any to spare. So I'm not sure this is so practical.
My intention was to guard the catapult with the elephant who is now 2S of KS. The two elephants I would bring in is the one E of KS, and the one in the jungle out E.

Beyond the cities you mentioned, we still have at least one more of Hannibal's cities to attack, and probably at least one more Mansa city we haven't found yet.
Indeed, but my thoughts regarding these is that we can save them until much later. Since/if we're going for Conquest then it's the last town that counts. I think we can send our very last built units to hunt down those towns, at the time when the major campaigning overseas is nearing its end.

How quickly can we put a road in place from Djenne to Athens, so that we can send surviving units from Djenne to conquer Athens, and then quickly back to Timbuktu? That still seems more practical, to me, than the reverse.
There's no way we could have enough of a road in place to take the elephants from Djenne to Athens. With some selected well-placed road snippets we might save a few turns here and there, but I'd say no more than 3 tops, and that's optimistic. We could have roads in place to take units from Timbuktu to Athens, or from Athens to Timbuktu, and from Djenne to Timbuktu (of course), but not Djenne to Athens. If anyone wants to prove me wrong, go right ahead. ;) (I don't have the game open now so this is all from memory).

But regardless - if we focus on Djenne, and then Athens, we won't have Timbuktu until ~35 turns from now. But if we don't expect to be able to handle it with the forces we have after Djenne, then there's no helping it, in that case we'd be better off delaying Timbuktu and taking Athens that we know we can take.

I think food in Smurkzdon is definitely useful. If we hit the happiness limit, we can always convert food to hammers by pop rushing an elephant.
Alright, I can agree with that too. I'll go for a cottage rather than a mine then.

Chris may be right that library in Djenne is too late to be useful, although we could gain 4-5 beakers for 20-25 turns, which is not a trivial payoff. But, the longer it takes, the less valuable it is, and we have better things for our workers to do, in the short term, than chopping forests for a library. So I would probably agree with skipping that---i.e., just build granary, then wealth.
I agree with Chris too - but this is after my turnset anyway. I will take the town and start on the granary, won't get further than that.

I think we're all in agreement regarding the start of the campaigning anyway. If there are no objections, I'll play the beginning of my turnset tomorrow, up to the capture of Djenne. At that point we'll also know if the gambit for Athens worked, and can plan better for the longer term.

There's no way we could have enough of a road in place to take the elephants from Djenne to Athens. With some selected well-placed road snippets we might save a few turns here and there, but I'd say no more than 3 tops, and that's optimistic. We could have roads in place to take units from Timbuktu to Athens, or from Athens to Timbuktu, and from Djenne to Timbuktu (of course), but not Djenne to Athens. If anyone wants to prove me wrong, go right ahead. ;) (I don't have the game open now so this is all from memory).

This doesn't sound right to me. If we can build a road from Athens to Timbuktu, why can't that road go through Djenne? It shouldn't add to the length, I think. Is it just that we don't get to use much of the existing roads that we have?

Another idea worth considering (although inconsistent with the risky early attack on Athens) would be to send the Medic from Athens toward Djenne now. If it could arrive around the time that Djenne falls, we could use it for rapid healing there, before sending our forces south toward Athens.

This doesn't sound right to me. If we can build a road from Athens to Timbuktu, why can't that road go through Djenne? It shouldn't add to the length, I think. Is it just that we don't get to use much of the existing roads that we have?
Oh, no, not at all. That road would go through Djenne, it makes good use of existing roads and doesn't add to the length. The problem is not where, but when. We can and will have a road from Athens to Djenne, but not in time for the stack to start moving after capturing Djenne. If we waited until (hypothetically) we've taken Timbuktu too, the road would be in place.

EDIT: Just to clarify, the road wouldn't go through Djenne itself, but through it's BFC. IIRC we would want to diverge so that the road goes from the dyes N-NW of Djenne, to the hill W-NW of Djenne, and from there straight SW.

Another idea worth considering (although inconsistent with the risky early attack on Athens) would be to send the Medic from Athens toward Djenne now. If it could arrive around the time that Djenne falls, we could use it for rapid healing there, before sending our forces south toward Athens.
Good idea, and not really inconsistent at all. The Athens gambit will conclude, for better or worse, in two turns. If we want to speed up the healing of the forces at Djenne with the medic, we can simply make them march unhealed. In the worst case the medic can meet up with them just outside Athens' borders, but perhaps better is to meet them in Corinth or Sparta (whichever is best situated) for the extra healing from being in the town. The medic should have plenty of time to get there, no?

Seems to me with 4-5 workers (leaving one to build hill mine in Carthage, and one to build spice plantation) we should be able to road most of the way from Djenne to Corinth in 6-7 turns. I still have to look at map for the exact route.

OK, I looked at a map. We need about 10 road segments to build a route from Djenne to Athens's cultural borders, so that's about 40 worker turns. And we have about 10 turns to build those (because we don't need the segments closest to Athens until our units get there, i.e., 5 turns to take Djenne and then 5 turns to move toward Athens). So that's about 4 workers dedicated to this task, which seems within our reach (we have 7 in the area, not counting the 2 closer to Smurkzdon). I don't think this is infeasible. The only real downside is that it will reduce our ability to quickly build improvements for Djenne---but I think not to an unacceptable degree.

Ideally, the route would run northeast from Athens, until it turns east toward Djenne, so that it is also the most direct path from Athens back toward Timbuktu. Unfortunately, this doesn't allow much reuse of the roads we've already built, so we might compromise somewhat on a less ideal route. It's really up to you, but I think the idea of immediately dedicating some workers to building this route is a good idea.

It might not be so bad to interrupt the ivory camp to build roads for a while, then finish it later. This worker is more or less located on the ideal route, already.

Turn 157 (145 BC):
Move elephants towards Djenne. Turns out the one out E had already moved this turn, that puts us back to capturing Djenne on turn 6. The upside is that the third elephant will join in as well then.

Wake worker building ivory camp, will put to roading duty next turn.

Switch Sparta to build wealth.

IBT: Oxmurkz galley->elephant, Carthage galley->wealth

Turn 158 (130 BC):
The elephant out E spots the borders of what's left of Hannibal.

Bombard Djenne to 6%. Hmm, that's faster than I thought, only one more hit needed then. I'll start moving the stack around.

Send western galley northwards first, since we likely want to end to the south in 40 turns we can send him there later.

Smurkzdon has grown and works the lake.

Research to 0%, saving up gold, +51 gpt now.

IBT: Corinth catapult->wealth, Camsmurkz aqueduct->wealth

Turn 159 (115 BC):
Battle for Athens:
Catapult suicides, collateral damage puts two archers at 2.6, and the direct attack puts the third at 2.2. Good outcome so far (but no retreat).
C2 Elephant vs C2 Archer (88 HP) =(85.8%)=> Elephant wins (15 HP)
C3 Elephant vs C1 Archer (88 HP) =(94.4%)=> Elephant wins (20 HP)
C1 Axeman vs C2 Archer (72 HP) =(57.6%)=> Archer wins (36 HP)
George Zhukov vs C2 Archer (36 HP) =(99.0%)=> Flawless win!

http://xs223.xs.to/xs223/08045/159athens215.png

>>The Save<< (http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm6/Smurkz_SG006_BC0115_01.CivWarlordsSave)

Time to rejoice, regroup and redeploy. :D

Turn 158, 130 BC: Your Catapult has reduced the defenses of Djenne to 11%!
Turn 158, 130 BC: Your Catapult has reduced the defenses of Djenne to 6%!

Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Catapult (3.20) vs Alexander's Archer (7.56)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Combat Odds: 0.0%
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Extra Combat: +20%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Plot Defense: +32%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Your Catapult has caused collateral damage! (2 Units)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Catapult is hit for 26 (38/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 14 (86/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 14 (72/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Catapult is hit for 26 (12/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Catapult is hit for 26 (0/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Catapult!
Turn 159, 115 BC: Your Catapult has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (9.60) vs Alexander's Archer (6.65)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Combat Odds: 85.8%
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Extra Combat: +20%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Plot Defense: +32%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (83/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (65/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (42/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (66/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (49/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (19/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (32/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (15/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 23 (0/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant has defeated Alexander's Archer!
Turn 159, 115 BC: Your War Elephant has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (10.40) vs Alexander's Archer (6.38)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Combat Odds: 94.4%
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Extra Combat: -30%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Plot Defense: +32%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 16 (84/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 16 (68/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 16 (52/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 24 (64/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 24 (40/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 24 (16/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 16 (36/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 16 (20/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 24 (0/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's War Elephant has defeated Alexander's Archer!
Turn 159, 115 BC: Your War Elephant has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.50) vs Alexander's Archer (5.44)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Combat Odds: 57.6%
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Extra Combat: +20%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Plot Defense: +32%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 21 (79/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 21 (58/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 18 (54/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 21 (37/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 18 (36/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 21 (16/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 21 (0/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Axeman!
Turn 159, 115 BC: Your Axeman has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Georgy Zhukov (Axeman) (5.50) vs Alexander's Archer (2.72)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Combat Odds: 99.0%
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Extra Combat: +20%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Plot Defense: +32%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 20 (16/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 20 (0/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Georgy Zhukov (Axeman) has defeated Alexander's Archer!
Turn 159, 115 BC: Your Georgy Zhukov has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 159, 115 BC: You have captured a Worker
Turn 159, 115 BC: You have captured a Worker
Turn 159, 115 BC: You have captured a Worker
Turn 159, 115 BC: You have captured Athens!!!
Turn 159, 115 BC: The Greek Civilization has been destroyed!!!

Yahoo! Yippee! Great news.

I must say I was a bit surprised by the high win probabilities. After the catapult did its damage, our combined win chance was over 75%. But I also now realize why that happens - the HP damage done stays to the next battle! All the probabilities I counted with in the pre-discussion was based on the archers beginning at 100 HP (but at lower strength from the damage). That thinking might seem silly and counter-intuitive, but that was actually what the strategy article (http://www.civfanatics.com/civ4/strategy/combat_explained.php) on the subject reported at the time I wrote my calculator, and I had no reason to disbelieve it. I see it has since been updated, so I guess I should update my calculator too.

But regardless, we won. :D

To connect the stone, we either need to clear the one black sea space by Camsmurkz or road to Athens. The only units close enough to clear the black are the galley or a worker. So perhaps the road to Athens would be a good thing still?

at the time I wrote my calculator, and I had no reason to disbelieve it. I see it has since been updated, so I guess I should update my calculator too.

Can you send/link a copy of your calculator?

The sheep in Athens will at +1 health to our empire. I checked, and it will only take two additional roads beyond the one already being built in Corinth to connect Athens by road, which will also give us stone. The three workers in Athens could build that quickly.

The elephant and all three axes outside Djenne are one XP from upgrades. Does this change anything? If nothing else, it should speed healing after the battle for those that survive.

We are at 40/60 for another great general. Perhaps we'll get it with the Mansa campaign?

Can you send/link a copy of your calculator?
I linked to it somewhere earlier in this thread. I gotta run now, otherwise I would have digged up the link for you. :)

I found the combat calculator on page 4. If you revise it, I'd appreciate a copy.

It was somewhat nostalgic reading the first four pages of this thread.

@Niklas: :goodjob: !! Good gambit, well played.
Cannot really follow the game before Monday, but I'll keep checking from time to time.

Looks good. Given the good results, I am inclined to say we can afford another galley in Oxsmurkz now (switch to galley then back to elephant). At this point (barring another reverse) the limiting factor on our win time seems to be how quickly and efficiently we can conquer our overseas foes, after Astronomy.. Unless we want to consider domination.

I'm surprised we only need 2 roads to connect Athens, but that sounds like a good plan, too.

Did we capture Athens with granary or lighthouse? If we don't have granary, do we want to build granary or library first? I guess we need cultural expansion even more than we need the granary.

We captured Athens with lighthouse and Stonehenge, but no granary.

We actually need three roads to connect Athens. There is one road already 1E of Athens. Two more roads NE of that will connect with the third road currently under construction 3NE of that, which will connect to the river system.

So the one road currently under construction plus two new roads will do the trick.

By the way, Athens will expand automatically due to Stonehenge - no need for library before granary.

Really? I've never seen a captured wonder generate culture. Is that different in this version?

Captured wonders don't give culture to the captor.

But we do get Monument effect from StoneHedge, right ?

Stonehenge is obsolete after Calendar, so no, we don't.

Duh. My bad. My previous experience with capturing Stonehenge was during a time when its monument power was active.

In Warlords too ? I thought it was pushed later (Astro or equivalent). That's probably a BtS intoxication...

Stonehenge expires later in BTS.

Turn 159 (115 BC):
Athens to Library, Oxmurkz to Galley. Research to 100%, MC in 3.

Move cats and most forces around Djenne, to get us closer to Timbuktu after Djenne falls.

Move eastern galley out to explore, and

http://xs123.xs.to/xs123/08046/159trireme357.png

Oops. Let's hope I survive the IBT.

IBT: Wow, I did survive, and at 1.5/2 health at that. I'm on a roll! :D

Turn 160 (100 BC):
Upgrade the surviving galley with Flanking in order to heal, up to 1.8. Giving Combat seems useless, but if he were to get two more xp somehow then we'll have Navigation.

Move in units on Djenne.

Turn 161 (85 BC):
Bombard Djenne defenses to 0%. There are now 4 skirmishers defending. I'm going to sacrifice a cat.

IBT: Metal Casting completed, continue on Machinery.
Smurkzdon elephant -> ... Hmm, forge or elephant? Forge costs two elephants, meaning we'd have to build another 8 for it to repay itself. It would increase happiness by 1 only, and add one unhealth. I decide not to for now, we can always change that in not too long.

Turn 162 (70 BC):
Battle for Djenne:
Catapult vs CG1 Skirmisher =(0.4%)=> Skirmisher unhurt, collateral damage for 10% on the other three.
C1 Elephant vs CG1 Skirmisher =(23.0%)=> Skirmisher at 2.6
C2 Elephant vs Skirmisher (89 HP) =(64.7%)=> Elephant at 0.8
C2 Elephant vs Skirmisher (89 HP) =(64.7%)=> Elephant at 0.8
C2 Elephant vs Skirmisher (89 HP) =(71.6%)=> Elephant at 6.6
CR3 Axe vs CG1 Skirmisher (64 HP) =(61.3%)=> Axe at 1.9, and

http://xs123.xs.to/xs123/08046/162djenne424.png

And what's more, Djenne already comes with a Granary, sweet! Queue up a library then. Send second cat and two axes towards Timbuktu to start bombarding.

Workers finish connecting Athens to our empire. Switch Camsmurkz to HG, ETA 19 turns.

Ozmurkz has grown to size 6, Smurkzdon still uses the lake so I let Oxmurkz work the coast instead. Could have used the forest, but at this point I favor research over production.

Actually, we now have 8 WEs, 3 axes (plus Zhukov), and two cats that will all bear down on Timbuktu. We aren't making enough money, but it seems we have enough troops for now. I switch Smurkzdon to wealth, may switch back to elephant if I find ridiculous troop numbers in Timbuktu.

IBT: Athens comes out of resistance.

Turn 163 (55 BC):
Come upon a Malinese retaliation party. Hmm, it would be nice to kill off those in the outside...

Turn 164 (40 BC):
Only two defenders in Timbuktu! Well, it's going to be more by the time we're ready to attack, but it's still nice.

IBT: Oxmurkz galley->wealth

Turn 165 (25 BC):
Bombard Timbuktu to 34%.

Turn 166 (10 BC):
Bombard Timbuktu to 28%.

One turn until Djenne comes out of resistance, we need a decision there and we should also discuss what to do with the wandering Skirmishers. I've played 9, I'll hand off here.

>>The Save<< (http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm6/Smurkz_SG006_BC0010_01.CivWarlordsSave)

Turn 159, 115 BC: Jeanne d'Arc (Great Prophet) has been born in a far away land!
Turn 159, 115 BC: Hannibal's Trireme (2.00) vs Churchill's Galley (1.42)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Combat Odds: 88.1%
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Plot Defense: +10%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: (Class Attack: -50%)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Hannibal's Trireme is hit for 16 (84/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Hannibal's Trireme is hit for 16 (68/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Hannibal's Trireme is hit for 16 (52/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Hannibal's Trireme is hit for 16 (36/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Galley is hit for 23 (77/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Hannibal's Trireme is hit for 16 (20/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Hannibal's Trireme is hit for 16 (4/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Hannibal's Trireme is hit for 16 (0/100HP)
Turn 159, 115 BC: Churchill's Galley has defeated Hannibal's Trireme!

Turn 161, 85 BC: You have discovered Metal Casting!

Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's Catapult (5.00) vs Mansa Musa's Skirmisher (9.80)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Combat Odds: 0.4%
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's Catapult is hit for 27 (73/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's Catapult is hit for 27 (46/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's Catapult is hit for 27 (19/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's Catapult is hit for 27 (0/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher has defeated Churchill's Catapult!
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (8.80) vs Mansa Musa's Skirmisher (9.80)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Combat Odds: 23.0%
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 21 (79/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 21 (58/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 21 (37/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 18 (82/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 21 (16/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 18 (64/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 21 (0/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher has defeated Churchill's War Elephant!
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (9.60) vs Mansa Musa's Skirmisher (8.01)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Combat Odds: 64.7%
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 18 (82/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 18 (64/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 18 (46/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 21 (68/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 18 (28/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 21 (47/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 21 (26/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 18 (10/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 21 (5/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 21 (0/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant has defeated Mansa Musa's Skirmisher!
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (9.60) vs Mansa Musa's Skirmisher (8.01)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Combat Odds: 64.7%
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 18 (82/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 21 (68/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 21 (47/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 21 (26/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 21 (5/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 18 (64/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 18 (46/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 18 (28/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 18 (10/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 21 (0/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant has defeated Mansa Musa's Skirmisher!
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant (9.60) vs Mansa Musa's Skirmisher (7.12)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Combat Odds: 71.6%
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 22 (67/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 22 (45/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant is hit for 17 (83/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 22 (23/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 22 (1/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 22 (0/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's War Elephant has defeated Mansa Musa's Skirmisher!
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.00) vs Mansa Musa's Skirmisher (4.35)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Combat Odds: 61.3%
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: (City Attack: -75%)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 21 (79/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 21 (58/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 18 (46/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 18 (28/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 18 (10/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 21 (37/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Mansa Musa's Skirmisher is hit for 18 (0/100HP)
Turn 162, 70 BC: Churchill's Axeman has defeated Mansa Musa's Skirmisher!
Turn 162, 70 BC: You have captured Djenne!!!

Turn 164, 40 BC: You have trained a Galley in Oxsmurkz. Work has now begun on a War Elephant.

Turn 165, 25 BC: Your Catapult has reduced the defenses of Timbuktu to 34%!

Turn 166, 10 BC: Your Catapult has reduced the defenses of Timbuktu to 28%!
Turn 166, 10 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 44 :hammers: for Athens.

Current Roster and Schedule:
ChrisShaffer - UP! (Jan 28)
unkle - On Deck! (Jan 31)
zyxy - Warming up (Feb 3)
DaviddesJ (Feb 6)
Wotan (Feb 9)
Niklas (Feb 12)

unkle said he'd be ready on Monday, so I think we should go ahead with him in the next turnset, and then I'll follow as originally planned.

If he still wants to switch, that's fine also.

Maps of the current situation

Athens
http://gesserit.net/smurkz/1.png
Timbuktu
http://gesserit.net/smurkz/2.png
World
http://gesserit.net/smurkz/3.png

Monday is two days away, so that's definitely time for one turnset in between. So unless you can't play before Tuesday I see no reason not to swap you two.

OK, that's fine.

Got it.

Research
Machinery -> optics

Cities
Smurkzdon spear spear spear spear, switch to cottage in 4 turns (I realize this will cost us 52 gold per spear, but we need garrisons and this will also allow us to ship more elephants and axes overseas)
Oxsmurkz wealth, switch to lake in 4 turns
Sparta wealth, work elephant camp on growth in 5 turns
Corinth wealth
Camsmurkz Hanging Gardens
Carthage wealth
Athens library then granary then wealth
Djenne wealth

Workers
Smurkzdon finish cottage, move to 1NE Camsmurkz to chop/cottage jungle (for HG growth population)
Athens 2 workers chop forest 1SW, then 3 workers mine gold, then copper
Sparta 1 worker build camp (for HG growth), 1 worker to Djenne to build plantations, 1 worker to finish road to Carthage (then to Djenne)
Between Sparta and Corinth road to connect Athens and Corinth
Corinth finish cottage, build another cottage (for HG growth)
Djenne 2 workers finish jungle chop then farm rice, 1 worker build dye plantation, arriving workers build dye plantations then spice plantations
* should one Djenne worker build a road NE toward Hannibal's remaining city?

Exploring
Western galley looks for bridge to purple culture
Northern galley moves West on pole (I doubt there is much to explore on the northern side of our own continent)
Eastern galley searches eastward

Military
Elephant (in same space as medic) moves to NW NW NW N to Kumbi Saleh (we have no defence if Mansa sends a skirmisher toward Sparta)
Oxsmurkz elephant moves into Oxsmurkz to garrison (no worries about barbarians since we have Great Wall)
Smurkzdon spears move south to garrison as they are built
Southern war elephants move north
Elephant and catapult to Djenne, continue bombardment

Dealing with Skirmishers
Most of our military have already moved this turn. In the current turn, these units are available to move:
* Elephant 1S of skirmishers, 3/2 XP, can be promoted to combat 1 or flanking
* Elephant in Djenne, combat 3
* Axe in Djenne, city raider 3
* Medic spear and wounded elephant in Djenne, should stay put
* Two axes 1SE of Timbuktu, should stay put
I propose moving the solo elephant 1W (to 1N2W of Djenne) and the elephant and axe in Djenne 1NW, then seeing where the skirmishers go. Hopefully, they'll move 1S across the river and we can easily finish them off.

Notes for future:
Smurkzdon, Sparta, Corinth and Carthage will be unhappy after Hanging Gardens population boost. A garrison would make Sparta and Corinth happy. Eliminating Hannibal will make Carthage happy.

Actually, we now have 8 WEs, 3 axes (plus Zhukov), and two cats that will all bear down on Timbuktu. We aren't making enough money, but it seems we have enough troops for now. I switch Smurkzdon to wealth, may switch back to elephant if I find ridiculous troop numbers in Timbuktu.

I don't understand wealth in Smurkzdon and Oxsmurkz. I agree we can probably conquer Mansa and Hannibal with what we have now, but how do you figure that we aren't making enough money? I can't load the save right now, but I think we have plenty of income to get three more techs (Machinery, Compass, Optics) in 30 turns.

Isn't it more useful to accumulate more elephants and catapults, so that we are ready to go overseas when we get Astronomy? Or, we could build settlers to prepare for a domination win. I don't see how extra gold (faster research) helps us much.

Smurkzdon spear spear spear spear, switch to cottage in 4 turns (I realize this will cost us 52 gold per spear, but we need garrisons and this will also allow us to ship more elephants and axes overseas)

I don't understand spears, at all. If you just want units for garrison purposes, then chariots are cheaper, and more flexible besides. And, if they are just garrison units, why build them in our cities with barracks? More to the point, why build any of them now? We can garrison our cities with our spare elephants, or catapults, and then replace those with chariots when we're actually ready to go overseas.

Duh, you're right, chariots would be better, and should be built in non-barracks cities. However, I think we need something now - From Athens to Corinth to Sparta to Camsmurkz we have zero (!) military units. If a surprise landing happened, we would be in dire straits. Sparta needs a garrison within 5 turns, or it will be unhappy when it grows. Other cities will need a garrison for happiness when we build the Hanging Gardens.

So, would you suggest turning around the elephants heading north near Sparta and Corinth and using them as garrisons? Or building chariots? Our only catapults are at Timbuktu and won't be useful as garrisons.

In regard to Niklas building wealth in Smurkzdon and Oxsmurkz, we currently have 112 gold and are losing 15/turn. If we build units in Smurkzdon and Oxsmurkz, we will be losing 43/turn. Machinery (5), Compass (5) and Optics (9) total 19 turns. We get our second Great Scientist in 31 turns. So you're probably right, we can afford to build units in both cities and run 0% science for some of those turns.

By the way, the turn log shows "Mansa Musa has 140 gold available for trade."

A quick check shows 0% science earns us 69/turn, enough to fund 1.6 turns of research. So over 31 turns, we can run 0% science for 10 turns and 100% science for 20 turns. When you factor in plunder, it's even better. So we can definitely afford to build units in Smurkzdon and Oxsmurkz.

I think Optics is actually faster than that, the science advisor doesn't estimate research times correctly for techs where you don't have the prerequisites yet (unless this has been fixed).

I think we do need to keep sending our existing units against Mansa. I have no problem with building chariots, or catapults, wherever we need them for garrisons. I'm not so concerned about a landing. It doesn't seem any of our other opponents have coastal access to our continent. If they do show up, we can poprush a defender.

Other comments welcome, btw. I've got relatively more time this weekend than normal, so I could post a plan on Sunday morning and play on Sunday evening if desired. Otherwise I'd need to play late Monday evening.

Good plan!

Comments (x-post with some of the above):

I think Mansa will have another city up north, because I have seen his units move that way.
We will get another GG soon. This time an instructor in Smurkzdon?
Compass will be needed before Optics.
Instead of spears in Smurkzdon, I suggest chariots. Cheaper, and mobile. The first one will finish in 2 turns, plenty in time to defend Sparta, so I would not use that elephant for that.
Smurkzdon will grow in 7 turns, and will become unhappy after HG. Perhaps hire a scientist now to stop growing? Alternatively, we could build a forge or colosseum. Or hope for some religion to spread...
Perhaps a more efficient use of the workers at Athens is that the two free ones chop the SW forest for one turn, then mine gold. The third worker finishes the SW chop. This does not lose any worker turns on movement, and gets the gold improved quickly.
Sparta needs more improved tiles if we want to fire the scientists in 5 turns.
I do not think we need a road to Hannibals city. Unless the city turns out to be good.
There is a road section missing on Athens - Djenne, near Corinth.
I agree with the proposed galley movements.
If Timbuktu is still defended by only 2 units only in two turns, then we have excellent chances to capture it.
Where did Mansa's skirmishers come from? I wouldn't bother too much about them, as they are weak on the attack and can at most pillage and be a nuisance. I would probably move healthy elephant from Djenne W-NW, and move the elephant that is there NW-N. It would be nice if we could prevent this raiding party from entering any towns, but I think we cannot prevent them from going to Kumbi.
Oxsmurkz elephant could also move NE to raze the barb town (do we get a lot of cash for this?)
There is silver in an otherwise useless spot SW of Athens. I do not think it is worth it.

Regarding wealth over units, I was under the impression that our bottleneck was the research time to Optics. I should have checked the numbers better, since it seems our second GS will be the bottleneck instead.

Mansa's skirmishers and warrior were first spotted on the hill S-SW of Timbuktu. From there they have wandered in the general direction of Djenne.

Good suggestions - keep them coming. I hope to incorporate them into a new plan tomorrow morning (CST aka GMT-6).

Regarding the road to Hannibal's last city, I was thinking it would speed movement of our attackers toward the city. Destroying that city would help a lot with happiness in Carthage, by eliminating 'we yearn for the motherland.'

A forge in Smurkzdon wouldn't be a bad idea. It will get +1 health from HG.

I figure to build one chariot in Smurkzdon for quick Sparta garrison, then build elephants. Remaining chariots can be built in non-barracks towns, as DaviddesJ suggested.

I do think we should give a serious thought to whether we can achieve domination faster than conquest. If that were our plan, we should start accumulating settlers.

I don't have the game installed here to open the save. But it seems pretty clear that we can achieve domination faster than conquest if we can build settlers fast enough. (And we have to research COL---then, once we control enough land and have enough settlers, we just build all the new cities and then run an artist in each to get cultural expansion in 4 turns. As I understand it, it doesn't matter if we run out of money during those four turns---some units may get disbanded, but our cities will continue to accumulate culture while we're on strike.)

It does seem to me that we can build a lot of settlers. We could probably build 15-20 between now and when we get our 2nd GS for Astronomy. It also seems that the cost of researching COL after Optics, isn't so burdensome.

So it is starting to seem to me that this may well be faster and easier than hunting down and razing every last AI city. We will only need to conquer a relatively small amount of overseas territory, to add to our home continent. Indeed, we may not even need to attack much; we can just settle cities in empty spaces that the AIs haven't expanded into yet?

We currently have 134 plots and 9.67% of the land. That means there are approximately 1,386 plots on the map and we need to control 887 of them to have 64% of the land. Domination population should be no problem - we currently have 34% of the world population and only need 49%.

887/21 = approx 42 expanded all-land cities to build or conquer, as ocean doesn't count, minus perhaps 2 for expansion from our current cities. Our current island has only 324 plots of land outside our current control. Of course, there could be much more land to the NE but it might also be mostly ocean. So there is approximately enough visible room in the remaining land we can see on our continent for 15 of the 40 cities we would need.

We would also need alphabet, literature, drama and music.

I must say that after the borig run for Domination last game I would favor conquest. Not sure which would be faster, but setting up 42 towns for expansion seems like a lot of work. Many of those settlers would need to be shipped, and that logistics of that will be hairy. But if the team wants to go for that, then Domination it is.
We would also need alphabet, literature, drama and music.
No, only CoL. A single artist is enough to expand borders, we don't need to use the lux rate (which would be slower anyway).

The plan

Research
Machinery -> calendar -> optics

Cities
Smurkzdon chariot -> forge, switch to cottage in 4 turns
Oxsmurkz elephants, switch to lake in 4 turns
Sparta wealth, work elephant camp on growth in 5 turns
Corinth wealth
Camsmurkz Hanging Gardens
Carthage chariot -> chariot -> chariot -> wealth
Athens library then granary then wealth
Djenne wealth

Workers
Smurkzdon finish cottage, move to 1NE Camsmurkz to chop/cottage jungle (for HG growth population)
Athens 2 workers chop forest 1SW, then 3 workers mine gold, then copper
Sparta 1 worker build camp (for HG growth), 1 worker to Djenne to build plantations, 1 worker to finish road to Carthage (then to Djenne)
Between Sparta and Corinth road to connect Athens and Corinth to the road network north to Djenne
Corinth finish cottage, build another cottage (for HG growth)
Djenne 2 workers finish jungle chop then farm rice, 1 worker build dye plantation, arriving workers build dye plantations then spice plantations
* should one Djenne worker build a road NE toward Hannibal's remaining city?

Exploring
Western galley looks for bridge to purple culture
Northern galley moves West on pole (I doubt there is much to explore on the northern side of our own continent)
Eastern galley searches eastward

Military
Elephant and medic north to Djenne
Oxsmurkz elephant moves into Oxsmurkz to garrison (no worries about barbarians since we have Great Wall)
Smurkzdon chariot to Sparta
Carthage chariots to Athens, Camsmurkz, Corinth (in that order)
Southern war elephants north to Djenne
Elephant and catapult to Djenne, continue bombardment

Dealing with Skirmishers
Most of our military have already moved this turn. In the current turn, these units are available to move:
* Elephant 1S of skirmishers, 3/2 XP, promote to combat 1 and move W.
* Elephant in Djenne, combat 3, move NW
* Axe in Djenne, city raider 3, move NW

Great General
* Join Smurkzdon as a Great Military Instructor

By the way, I don't figure there will be enough empty land for a non-military domination, so for my turnset I continue building elephants. If we do go for domination, we will still need to do some conquering - and there is that purple culture to the west that we can already see.

I'd like to play tonight, in perhaps 12 hours?

Chris, that sounds good.

I think we should stick with conquest, until/unless we have a good reason not to. For the moment, it doesn't look like we'll have enough land on our continent + bordering islands to reach domination, so overseas conquest will be needed anyway. But if we can spare a chariot to explore the NE, that will give us some more information.

Btw, we only have one port city in the east, so it might be good to let Carthage train some galleys for upgrading - but it is still too early, maybe.

We would also need alphabet, literature, drama and music.

No, we don't need any of those.

Obviously, it depends to some extent on the distribution of land in the parts of the world that we haven't seen. But it seems to me that conquering and colonizing perhaps 1/3 of the unseen world, will be faster than conquering all of it.

I do think we have to commit one way or the other, soon. We will need a whole lot more units if we are going to take out all of our remaining opponents simultaneously. When we chop our remaining forests, and put all of those hammers into more units, then we are pretty much committed.

Everyone else but me seems to have little interest in planning for domination, so perhaps the decision is made.

A forge in Smurkzdon wouldn't be a bad idea. It will get +1 health from HG.

Forge costs 180, and generates +25% hammers after that, so we need to generate another 720 hammers after the forge in order for (25% of 720) to add up to 180. How long will it take us to generate 180+720 = 900 hammers in Smurkzdon? Seems like it will be about 50 turns. We probably have about 50 turns of useful production, before it's too late to influence the end of the game. (Maybe slightly more if we do go for domination, since settlers can be built until the very end, and fill in gaps relatively nearby, plus they move faster than elephants.) I guess it seems roughly a wash.

We would also need alphabet, literature, drama and music.
No, we don't need any of those.

Right, Niklas already pointed that out several posts ago - and explained why as well.

I do think we have to commit one way or the other, soon. We will need a whole lot more units if we are going to take out all of our remaining opponents simultaneously. When we chop our remaining forests, and put all of those hammers into more units, then we are pretty much committed.

Everyone else but me seems to have little interest in planning for domination, so perhaps the decision is made.

I don't think it's made yet, but as I pointed out in #834, I don't think it needs to be made in the next ten turns. I won't be chopping trees for units during this turnset.

Either way, I believe we will need to conquer some enemy cities, and will need the few military units that I build in the next turnset. Do you disagree with that?

Forge costs 180, and generates +25% hammers after that, so we need to generate another 720 hammers after the forge in order for (25% of 720) to add up to 180. How long will it take us to generate 180+720 = 900 hammers in Smurkzdon? Seems like it will be about 50 turns. We probably have about 50 turns of useful production, before it's too late to influence the end of the game. (Maybe slightly more if we do go for domination, since settlers can be built until the very end, and fill in gaps relatively nearby, plus they move faster than elephants.) I guess it seems roughly a wash.

I agree it will take about 50 turns to balance out. However, it will also grant +1 happy.

Do you really think we'll be shipping our last units for conquest/domination in 50 turns? It's 32 turns until Astronomy. Will we build our last unit a mere 18 turns after Astronomy?

I admit to some ambivalence about the forge. We would need to clear a jungle and mine a grassland hill to get much use out of the extra population point the forge would support. Seems to me we might be able to whip the one unhappy population in Smurkzdon after we get Hanging Gardens, and that might be a better hammer bonus than the forge.

So I will drop the forge from the plan and replace it with elephants unless anyone has an argument in favor of the forge.

In regard to the domination vs. conquest question, I'm open to either solution. Whichever will actually win us the game faster is the one I support, even if it means more work figuring out the details of settler placement.

I think it's true that we could wait 10 more turns. But I doubt we'll know anything in 10 turns that we don't know now.

Sparta is going to generate a GS, and then presumably de-allocate the scientists. You didn't mention this in your plan, it does mean two more tiles to work.

I am skeptical about military instructor, although we probably won't get a GG in the next 10 turns. Military instructor gives 2 xp per subsequent unit we build, while warlord gives 20 xp right away, so to break even we have to build 10 more elephants after the GG, which seems moderately unlikely. Basically, the same argument as last time, but we're even closer to the end now.

Another Medic III warlord would seem pretty useful, at least if we are going for conquest and fighting on two (or three) fronts simultaneously. If we start with a chariot, we don't really need the extra speed point, although if we split the xp with another unit then we only get to 2+10 = 12, which is one short of what we need for Medic III. Perhaps we could try to build a 2xp chariot, and send it out to get one more xp before we turn it into a warlord.

Do you really think we'll be shipping our last units for conquest/domination in 50 turns? It's 32 turns until Astronomy. Will we build our last unit a mere 18 turns after Astronomy?

That seems about right. Conquest should take 30-40 turns from Astronomy, I hope. Elephants are slow, they will probably need to be built 10 turns before the end to play any role at all.

So I will drop the forge from the plan and replace it with elephants unless anyone has an argument in favor of the forge.

The forge also helps with whipping, as well as increasing the value of our remaining forests when we chop them. So that makes it easier to get to breakeven.

The forge allows us to generate more hammers later, thus we can build units closer to when we actually are ready to send them overseas, this means we don't have to pay maintenance as they sit around. This is an efficiency gain because units cost maintenance but the forge doesn't.

There's some chance we'll find and connect gems, in which case the forge will be worth another happiness point. Also, it's more likely we'll find additional health resources than happiness resources, so the health might become less of an issue.

I really don't feel strongly either way, I'm happy with either choice, to build the forge or not.

Smurkzdon can produce an elephant every 5-6 turns. So it will take 50-60 turns for the Great Instructor to generate 20 xp. Thus, I agree with David that it should be assigned as XP to units. I would suggest using the warrior that guards Smurkzdon, which already has 4/4 XP with Combat I. At any rate, if the Great General occurs during my turnset, I'll either reserve it or pause for discussion.

You're right that I forgot about Sparta's scientists becoming workers. How about changing these two Sparta workers:

1 worker to Djenne to build plantations, 1 worker to finish road to Carthage (then to Djenne)

To this instead:

2 workers to mine hills S and SW of Sparta

oh, and Sparta's population will work the 1F/2H forests in the event there aren't improved squares to work at any particular time.

Grin. OK, you've convinced me, retain the forge. The hammer bonus from chopping and whipping will pay it back.

Yes, ignore the barb town now. We might take it later when we get near Astro - it can whip a few galleons maybe.

The barbarian city isn't going to whip any galleons unless we take it soon, it will take a long time just to grow in population. Also if we want to get anything out of it we would have to expand its borders and transport a worker to the cow island.

We might attack it as just a way to promote our elephants to level 2. Our C1 elephants should be strong favorites against unpromoted archers in flatland city with no cultural defense (8.8 vs 5.25).

I would probably take it soon, just to not think about it any more. As soon as we have more elephants than we want to send east against Mansa. It seems pretty clear we have enough income that we can afford to take it.

The barbarian city isn't going to whip any galleons unless we take it soon, it will take a long time just to grow in population. Also if we want to get anything out of it we would have to expand its borders and transport a worker to the cow island.

We might attack it as just a way to promote our elephants to level 2. Our C1 elephants should be strong favorites against unpromoted archers in flatland city with no cultural defense (8.8 vs 5.25).

I would probably take it soon, just to not think about it any more. As soon as we have more elephants than we want to send east against Mansa. It seems pretty clear we have enough income that we can afford to take it.

I'm fine with this analysis. However, I'll admit I'm not sure what the answer is to this question - what is "more elephants than we want to send east against Mansa"?

Would it be OK for me to send the current Oxsmurkz elephant garrison plus the first Oxsmurkz-produced elephant to the barbarian city?

If Timbuktu doesn't get more defenders really soon then we already have all the necessary units in place there. And with the elephants that are coming from Sparta, we should have enough to take out 5 defenders, if he manages to magically conjure that many. So IMO that's a yes to your question.

Do you really think we'll be shipping our last units for conquest/