1. What does the presence or absence of the little red and black picture next to an opponent's name mean?

2. After c. 50 missions, I am convinced that the actual chance of success is much lower than the estimate reported. Seems to apply to the AI too, since in every game I get dozens of reports that an AI mission against me has failed, but <10 or even <5 that they have succeeded (that is -- not counting the additional dozens of times that I capture AI spies just hanging around).

Anybody know what the real success chances are/how they are determined.

3. Random question: what does a little silver star next to city's name mean? My capital always has one, so do some non-cpaitals, both mine and AI?

Thanks in advance.

The Icon tells you that you currently have more EP's on him, than he on you.

It would be odd to have 2 different odd calculations programmed (one for display other for actually doing it) just to fool you.
Also how do you distinguish between failed AI missions, and catching spies while "just hanging around" ? The message is the same.

Some numbers are in Bhruics Thread on Spy Detection (http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=247719). Mission Success is a few post below.

The silver star indicates Forbiden Palace/Versailes "secondary capital" .

ck07, for an example on spy detection odds read the article in my sig. I also has reference to Bhruic thread Refar posted.

ck07, for an example on spy detection odds read the article in my sig. I also has reference to Bhruic thread Refar posted.

This is quite helpful, but I remain convinced that the reported odds are higher than the real odds. My N is too big to be just bad luck (bothe for me and AIs). Your article does not address this question. Any thoughts. Have you noticed the same tendency that I have?

To the previous poster, the messages are not the same: there is a message saying "caught while attempting ....." you must be partly right, though, in that I get many "stumbled upon near [city]" for every successul AI mission against me.

When my spies sit in any enemy city they are rarely caught unless I attempt a mission, so I infer that the large number of AI spies that I "stumble upon" are largely failed missions -- which in turn must mean that their success percentage must be very low.

Well, you need to calculate your own odds :) I can't put all possible scenarios to the article. The link to the original spy detection article is inside my article, you can find the answer there...

Also, realize spy detection has a huge random component. It might be just that you or the AI have had some very unlucky games in terms of spy detection, even despite large N.

I would also suggest using ships to station your spies to eliminate risk of getting caught.