View Full Version : Possible WWIII Scenario


Loki130
Aug 02, 2008, 05:21 AM
Here's my idea for a WWIII scenario-perhaps not the most realistic, but i think it works and would make for a good game. If reviews are good, i'll see if i can't make something out of it.

In late 2011 a devastating flu pandemic combined with severe economic crisis removed the United States from its position on top of the world. With low morale and decaying order at home, they bagan a massive withdrawl of troops from the Middle East and Europe. This had a catostrophic effect; While the lack of American targets lead to a slight decrease in terror attacks, the new governments of Iraq and Afghanistan were under immense strain. Also, many other Middle Eastern states saw an oppurtunity and a military build-up began around Israel. The UK did what it could to help, But the American withdrawl had caused problems in Europe, particularly Kosovo. The EU had voted to move peacekeepers in, but there was only so much they could do.
Meanwhile the US, seeing the problems caused by its less than graceful exit, vowed to prevent the same from happening in East Asia, despite China's increasing aggression against Taiwan. Tensions increased, and on May 22nd, 2012, an American destoyer fired on and sunk a Chinese patrol ship, setting off a series of events leading to open war between the two superpowers. Despite America's best efforts and a heroic stand by the Marines in Taipei, Taiwan was soon overrun.
After that the war became a series of stirkes and counter-strikes, the most notable of which was the devastating bombing of Shanghai and the subsequent sinking of the Nixon-class carrier that launched it. By an unspoken agreement neither side used nuclear weopons, and the war soon reached a stalemate.
Up to this point both North and South Korea had been reluctant to join the conflict. But on September 4th, after months of pushing from the Chinese, North Korea invaded the South. Initial casualties were high, and both Pyongyong and Seoul were soon both in ruins.
To be Continued...

Rodent
Aug 02, 2008, 09:51 AM
The Story is not bad, but this is better suited in the modding and customization Forum, People there can give a better review

Loki130
Aug 02, 2008, 06:01 PM
@Rodent-this may not be the best place, but i thought you were only supposed to put something finished (or at least in testing mode) there. If there's a place you know of where this is not true, i'll see if i can move this.
Anyway...
As the North Korean Army began to lose impetus and the S. Korean one crumbled away, their larger neighbors intervened. Soon what was a proxy conflict became a devastating all-out war between China and America, resulting in tens if not hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties. The Americans fought furiously, but they had not managed to gain full air superiority and there were severe logistical problems. Both the Navy and Army, under heavy attack, were forced into a slow but constant retreat.
Back in the States, President Barrack Obama was voted out in favor of Congressman Matthew Howard, who vowed to restore peace and bring America out of economic depression intact. While his charisma gained confidence that this was possible, he would later reveal that he personally found this unlikely and at most hoped to prevent further Chinese advance and stop total collapse at home. By the time of his inauguration in January 2013 Korea was virtually lost.
Meanwhile Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan launched a combined attack on Israel in mid-November 2011 with he help of greatly increased terrorist attacks. At first the EU , wishing to mantain the balance of power in the Middle East, (however shaky) only gave aid in the form of supplies, but soon they were providing full naval and air support. Jerusalem was under siege and much of the government retreated to Tel Aviv, which was also under bombardment. In retaliation, EU bombers raided Damascus, Cairo, and Mecca. After several see-saw battles the Arab forces retreated to the former borders and a cease-fire was reached, though it was not to last.

to be continued...

Loki130
Aug 02, 2008, 06:04 PM
oh, i see where you mean-whatever, it's already here anyway

Quintillus
Aug 02, 2008, 06:12 PM
:thumbsup: Great so far! Looking forward to seeing the continuation of the story, and a scenario sounds good as well.

Loki130
Aug 03, 2008, 05:57 AM
Does anyone know if there's a way to move a thread after it's been started? Or must I make a new one, annoying people in high places? (though that usually is my goal...)
BTW: in the second post the arab attack should be in november 2012, not 2011
At any rate:
The Americans had now retreated to the area around Pusan and hoped to launch a break-out as in the First Korean War. But it was not to be, and soon Pusan became a modern Dunkirk. It was now Febuary 2013, and the world was on the verge of chaos. Taiwan and Korea had been absorbed into China's sphere and it had its eyes on Japan; A final showdown was imminent in the Middle East; Terrorist attacks by both Muslim radicals and Serb nationalists were raging across the EU; And something was brewing in Russia...
Ever since the rise of Vladimir Putin to power many feared he would bring back Cold War rivalries. But it was not him but a group of old Soviet generals who led a coo on April 11th, 2013 to bring back Communist rule. Their regime lasted less than a week before it began to crumble. Even those who at first supported their revolution soon saw them to be nostalgic old men who didn't know the first thing about government. Ironically enough (or perhaps not...) Putin joined the fight against them. After an incident where soldiers openned fire on protesters in Red Square, Russia quickly fell into civil war, the borders undefined as each city split several ways. Many of Russia's neighbors saw oppurtunity in this: China supported the Communists, and Ukraine and several other former Soviet states supported the Opposition. eventually Moscow became the center of the Opposition and the now (again) renamed Leningrad the new Communist capitol.
Back East, China launched a massive invasion of Japan in early May and was soon in control of the island of Kyushu, had sizable footholds on Honshu, (the Japanese main island) and had knocked out several American airbases in the area. North (though now all of) Korea also participated with an invasion of Hokkaido, which also proved successful. The Japan Self-Defense Forces proved to be too small for such a large defensive operation, and much of the fighting was done by American forces. Unfortunately the war turned into a repeat of Korea: the Americans fought hard, but the Chinese slowly pushed them back, though at high cost. The Americans and Japanese needed a new strategy fast.
Osama Bin Laden, having survived being chased by Coalition forces for over a decade, slipped into Russia sometime in May with an elite Al Queda force. with Russia in chaos and the military split, many nuclear weapons were being left under light guard.

to be continued...

Chieftess
Aug 03, 2008, 09:39 AM
Does anyone know if there's a way to move a thread after it's been started?

You can always use the Report Post button http://forums.civfanatics.com/images/buttons/report.gif next to any posts to ask for a thread to be moved. In this case, I just moved it to C&C.

Loki130
Aug 03, 2008, 05:15 PM
Many thanks Chieftess.
To continue, then...

By June 2013 only a few American and Japanese salients survived west of Japan's central mountainous region and the Chinese had launched an attack on Shikoku. (which, if captured, would make any reasonable defense of Osaka and the regions West of it impossible) Around this time the US employed several new tactics in an attempt to stop the Chinese advance, the most notable of which was THEL.
The THEL (Tactical High-Energy Laser) system was an Israeli-designed military laser designed to shoot down incoming aircraft, missiles, and other munitions. The project was cancelled by the Israelis, but with the new global conflict, both them and the Americans insisted it be restarted. Neither of their industries, already responding to immense military demands, were particularly equipped for this. Nevertheless, there were soon 14 THELs deployed in strategic locations in Japan. At first they were very succesful; preventing any Chinese aircraft or munitions from entering their protective sphere, and one even managed to sink a Chinese gunboat by detonating its ammunition and overheating its engine. But the Chinese soon became aware of the positions of the THELs, and special reflective missile casings were manufactured especially to take them out. By August there were only 5 THELs left and the Americans were retreating to Nagoya.
Back in June in Russia Bin Laden and his elite force had so far evaded detection and were following rumors of a stash of nuclear weapons small enough to be transported somewhere North of Ufa. Following the Belaja river north by night and hiding in the day, they made it to the area on July 17th. The next day they found the base containing the weapons in the woods and planned their attack in the night. But later that day a Communist attack helicopter platoon on its way to Samara stopped there for the night. When Osama and his elite troops attacked, they found resistance far greater than they expected. By the time they had captured one nuke they were two Mil Mi-24s in the air and Osama was forced to retreat back into the dark. They had only one nuke, but one would be enough.

To be continued...

timerover51
Aug 03, 2008, 08:52 PM
Would you perhaps explain how a massive pandemic can so damage the US, probably the best equipped country in the world to handle such a thing, and leave the rest of the world untouched?

Added Note: No, I would not be interested in the least in your scenario.

Loki130
Aug 04, 2008, 02:22 PM
The US is particularly vulnerable to infectious viruses due to its interconnectiveness. (Probably not a word, i know) From personal experiance in airports, i'd say a virus could reach most of the US within 8-12 hours, the world in a day. Any attempt to stop the spread would result in severe econimic problems and probably be futile. This is probably true for most modern nations, but the US has become uniquely dependant on foriegn imports and has no alternative system. It may take months to develop a vaccine for a new virus, by which time millions would be dead, many more infected, and the world economy severely crippled. It is a bit of a stretch, yes, but how boring would life be if we never stretched anything.
moving on...
Having successfully acquired a nuclear weapon Osama Bin Laden returned to his home in the Pakistani mountains. He commissioned one of his best warriors, Buram Khalammad, for an immense mission. He was specially chosen for it as Osama trusted him, and yet he had not yet been noticed by the West and had no criminal record. In September 2013 he smuggled the nuke via Russia and Poland into the EU. He arrived in Brussels and made arrangements for the nuke to be detonated on October 2nd, when the European Council would be meeting there. But someone reported his suspicious activity and the police went to question him at his hotel. He saw them, panicked, and, at exactly 1:43 and 5 seconds in the afternoon local time on September 26, 2013, detonated a nuclear weapon with a wield similar to the one used on Hiroshima near the center of Brussels.

To be continued...

Ward
Aug 04, 2008, 08:29 PM
I like the premise of this scenario. It seems to flow rather nicely as a start to the conflict. Are you planning on having the world start out on Sept 27 2013? The day after all of the above took place?

That could be interesting to see who could recover: Europe? America? Asia? Or would China be the only superpower left in the world to face the Islamic threat from the middle east?

Hikaro Takayama
Aug 04, 2008, 11:08 PM
Would you perhaps explain how a massive pandemic can so damage the US, probably the best equipped country in the world to handle such a thing, and leave the rest of the world untouched?

Added Note: No, I would not be interested in the least in your scenario.

For once, I actually agree with Timerover on something.....

Any pandemic that hit the US that bad, would completely devastate China (just look at what happened with the SARS outbreak about 4 years ago), not to mention Russia, with it's decrepit infrastructure and non-existant social services.

Ward
Aug 05, 2008, 12:10 AM
In several books I have seen pandemic targetted against a specific race i.e. Caucasian in this case. The Oriental races were immune to it. This would mean that Europe would be in trouble as well as most of North America.

Perhaps something better to use would be as follows: While pursuing the nuclear weapons from the former Soviet Union, Bin Laden had unleashed a chemical attack on United States soil which destroyed almost all the wheat, corn, soy and other food crops. This attack started in Iowa and spread throughout the Wheat Belt and up into Central Canada.

This would limit the damage to North America and kill millions. The world would not have enough food to feed the starving people here and with the failing economy, there is not enough money to buy the food that is available on the market.

The chemical release would not 'jump' the oceans and would not continue past its time. It would effectively destroy the land of arrable crops for years to come though.

Deth McBones
Aug 05, 2008, 12:30 AM
First off, quite the sprawling epic as far as ideas go. Is this all backstory? Or will the scenario start in the beginning.
And I agree with those who believe that the US is probably the best equipped to stave off a biological threat.
Overall, I'd say a scenario like this is much too sprawling and fractured to get very far off the ground. Usually, the less fancy the easier it is to finish. I bet a lot of modders here could attest to that.

timerover51
Aug 05, 2008, 01:13 AM
Before you start thinking chemical agent attacks on crops, you need to research a thing called Agent Orange. For what you describe, you are talking more like thousands of tons of chemicals. And lots of aerial spray aircraft, C-130 size or better. Bio attack on crops is possible, however, you are talking about a lot of area, and multiple crops, each requiring a different agent. You would be better off assuming a terrorist nuke attack touched off a fairly large nuclear exchange. Problem with that is that China gets very thoroughly clobbered along with every one else. The South Americans are the big winners. Africa simply dies with no food aid.

As for targeting a pandemic on a specific race, there are some genetic disorders that are race specific, such as sickle cell anemia, but tailoring a disease to a specific race, even allowing for genetic splicing, and extremely rapid mutation, you are not talking a short period of time. Ten to twenty years of work, with plenty of test subjects, and a lot of safe guards, otherwise your workers die. Good old Osama is supposed to do this in a cave hide out? Microbiology and bacteriology does not seem to be his strong points. Actually, if you want nasty bugs, just check out the larger pharmaceutical firms that produce antibiotics. How do you think that they test new drugs? Of course, those places do tend to be closely monitored.

Loki130
Aug 05, 2008, 04:54 AM
This may take a while...
Alright, first this: Osama can't be the cause for the disaster in the US, or they never would have pulled out of the Middle East, a major theme in this scenario.
As for how the pandemic caused so much damage to the states specifically, that's a bit more tricky. Now (as I've stated several times) I'm not saying that the rest of the world simply skipped past a deadly flu virus, and indead it's probably the cause for the sudden uprise in epic global warfare. How about this: the pandemic originated in the US, and China developped the vaccine first, allowing them to blunt its effects somewhat.
As for when the scenario starts, probably in October-there's one or two things I want to add in first. (and be warned, there's a twist!:mischief:) The backstory may seem complex, but I plan to incorporate several aspects of it into the scenario: THELs as units, wonders/improvements, etc. Plus, I'm a big thinker; when I get ideas like this I have to write them down in their totality-that's just the way I am.
Don't worry about modding-I've already collecting most of the necessary supplies for another scenario. (to be released in the Fall)
And BTW, take a close look at the time when the nuke goes off...

Loki130
Aug 05, 2008, 05:02 AM
I do have one other problem, though: too many sides.
Does anyone know how to make more than 4 locked alliances?

JSnider
Aug 05, 2008, 04:47 PM
If I might offer an aside why not stick to economic collapse as the rational for US/EU weakness. Although this will hit other countries the impact may not be as severe as that on highly energy intensive countries ... also dictatorships clamp down harder on dissent then other government types. If not at all in favor of this then would recommend look at EMP attack on US by party or parties unknown.

I concur that bio level attacks even if targeted at certain genetic characteristics have to large of a chance to mutate to not spread to others in time.

JSnider
Aug 06, 2008, 09:42 PM
Oh another thing can look at if wish to stay with Plague is 'John Ringo's latest book The Last Centurion'. Somewhat hard read (more opinions then story) but might set up the type of scenario you are alluding to above.

Loki130
Aug 08, 2008, 12:55 PM
EMP may cause too much damage for this scenario, and I couldnt find any info on 'The Last Centurion'. Perhaps the virus could be among crops, specifically American corn or wheat with Chinese rice remaining unharmed.
But to finish...
For several hours chaos ensued in what remained of Brussels as survivors poured into half-staffed hospitals. Meanwhile the Arab states, which had planned to coincide their new attack on Israel with the nuke's planned detonation on October 2nd, decided to attack once they heard news of the premature explosion despite not being completely prepared. Major battles broke out all around Israel's borders, and the EU hesitated to help. The French Govenment convened to discuss the possibility of a nuclear counter-attack, and soon several other EU leaders travelled to Paris to join the discussion. It was generally agreed that the Arab states now attacking Israel were somehow involved. Cairo, Alexandria, Damascus, Beirut, Mecca, and Riyadh were all discussed as possible targets. Whatever the decision, the EU now seemed committed to eliminating the threat in the Middle East once and for all.
With the rest of the world's focus elsewhere, tensions between Pakistan and India were mounting. However it was China, seeking to secure control over the Kashmir region, that set of hostilities. Pakistan, initially suspecting the attack was from India, launched a counterattck in the south to avert Indian troops. By the time both India and Pakistan were aware of China's involvement, it was too late. A three-way war ensued with the future of all countries at stake.
Back in the US moral was lower than ever and rationing was introduced. The economy continued to fall, and the federal government proved incapable of meeting everyones needs. Radical groups began to emerge preaching independance for Texas and California. Martial law was declared in areas of Southern California, and dissent grew with rumors of police brutality.
It is now October 1st, 2013. China and the US are locked in a desperate struggle for Japan. Israel is under siege and Brussels lays in ruins. Russia has been torn apart by internal strife. The Indian sub-continent was engaged in war. And the American economy continues to crumble.

TopGun
Aug 08, 2008, 02:06 PM
Well with your assumption that Obama is the US president in your scenario, you already have the root cause for the US retreat from the Middle East. There ya go. No need for pandemics or chemical attacks.

Loki130
Aug 08, 2008, 02:12 PM
Well with your assumption that Obama is the US president in your scenario, you already have the root cause for the US retreat from the Middle East. There ya go. No need for pandemics or chemical attacks.

But they are needed for China to be confident enough to attack and the US to be crumbling.

Quinzy
Aug 08, 2008, 03:04 PM
China got pissy at the US for criticizing their social issues? Or maybe you could bring in this War in South Ossetia thing somehow? :)

And the US went into an economic depression due to several major businesses going into liquidation after allegations of tax evasion?

Loki130
Aug 08, 2008, 03:07 PM
I need something with more of a global strife aspect to make people desperate and angry enough to start going for eachothers throats

TopGun
Aug 08, 2008, 04:51 PM
I need something with more of a global strife aspect to make people desperate and angry enough to start going for eachothers throats

That's not how WWI started. Back then it was a domino effect of alliances and security guarantees, coupled with strict timetables for mobilization that made war inevitable once a point-of-no-return was reached.

And WWII started because Hitler underestimated the French and British after years and years of appeasement.

I'm telling you, a US withdrawal from the Middle East with an abandonment of Israel (a real possibility with Obama as president) is enough to set that part of the world on fire. Such a withdrawal would also encourage N Korea and China to pursue more aggressive politics.

And after seeing what their withdrawal from the Middle East has caused, it is plausible that the US will try to make a stand in Asia, where it has 65 years of security guarantees to honor.

In today's world, pandemics will be global. No-one would be spared, because no-one is isolated.

Loki130
Aug 08, 2008, 05:08 PM
Throw in a little economic depression, I'm starting to see how this might work. I've got about three years to work with, so an international crisis here and there could heat things up a little...
Thanks for the contribution, TopGun.

JSnider
Aug 08, 2008, 09:14 PM
Yes EMP if done properly would push a high level energy country back a 100 yrs (potentially), then the ability to fight your virus/plague would be seriously degraded. Just an alternate starting point.

As to the 'The Last Centurion' it is a alternate history book that just came out in the last couple weeks ... I mentioned it because it starts with a similar premise as yours except the plague (a SARS mutation) begins in China and spreads from there.. has some ideas that you may find usable. As a warning though it is more of a political statement then a work of fiction even if in the SF/Fantasy section of the book stores. It has plague, gov stupidity, economic collapse all rolled into one.

timerover51
Aug 09, 2008, 01:51 AM
Yes EMP if done properly would push a high level energy country back a 100 yrs (potentially), then the ability to fight your virus/plague would be seriously degraded. Just an alternate starting point.

As to the 'The Last Centurion' it is a alternate history book that just came out in the last couple weeks ... I mentioned it because it starts with a similar premise as yours except the plague (a SARS mutation) begins in China and spreads from there.. has some ideas that you may find usable. As a warning though it is more of a political statement then a work of fiction even if in the SF/Fantasy section of the book stores. It has plague, gov stupidity, economic collapse all rolled into one.

I am assuming that you are referring to the phenomena known as Electro-Magnetic Pulse. For a widespread EMP effect, you would need to detonate at least a one megaton yield nuclear device at an altitude of 100+ miles above the center of the US. Note, this would require a full-size ICBM, which would be detected on the US Ballistic Missile Attack Warning Radar a minimum of 15 minutes before detonation, with the launching site of the missile being pin-pointed in a few seconds. There would be no parties unknown, and US nuclear retaliation would be on the way before the missile detonated.

It would cause problems, but the effect would be regional in scope, not nationwide. As for knocking back an energy-intensive civilization a 100 years or so, I would be VERY INTERESTED in seeing what you are using for the basis of that claim. For more information on the EMP effect in unclassified literature, I would recommend the Effect of Nuclear Weapons by Gladstone. Copies can be located on the Internet. I have four copies of various editions myself.

If you gentlemen wish to further pursue this fantasy, could you at least do a bit of actual research, rather than relying on the rather dubious science contained in most fiction books of today.

JSnider
Aug 09, 2008, 02:59 PM
Don't mean to disagree with your premise, but lets just say I worked on this in the 70/80s and with what is avail today unless you are hardening your basic commercial electronics it will go poof (so until replaced no computers, no TV etc...), am familiar with the works on this topic ... also it doesn't take an ICBM anymore based on yield, spread and targeting parameters (also 1 megaton would be way to small for the desired effect); for a game just have to presuppose that commercial access to space succeeds (although there is one study using the equivalent of weather balloons).

As to spotting I concur that it probably would be if launched as you describe and one of the reasons nation states never looked to hard at it is that the retaliatory missile systems are hardened or spread so in theory wouldn't be knocked out ... this method is in reality more to effect civil populations versus military and has a similar history as the neutron bomb.

But to take a different view, this is a game so why does reality have to enter into it. As todays reality was in fiction books 20-100 yrs ago, so tomorrows reality might be in todays fiction ... just one ex-researchers view of life. Since this is someone elses game idea we should just agree to disagree and move on.

Loki130
Aug 10, 2008, 02:08 PM
I have heard certain solar phenomena can have a a similar but more widespread effect as EMP. If that's true it might work. I've got a lot of different options to wiegh here...

Quinzy
Aug 10, 2008, 04:00 PM
Massive solar flares can and do have detrimental effects on electronics. :)