I'm playing as Bismarck on a Fractal map. Difficulty is Emperor, everything is set on default except Choose Religions is on.

I've reached a juncture and I'm not sure where to go from here. I'm one turn away from Liberalism, and I think what I take should be based on what victory I want to go for, except that's what I'm unsure about... I'm hoping you guys can help me decide what the best way to win this game would be. I don't want to throw away my lead.

Here is an overview of the situation...

My island:

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk103/GlareSeethe/Bismarck-land.jpg

Sury dropped a city 2E1S of the iron, but since I wonderspammed Berlin the mine is already back under my control.

Here's Berlin:

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk103/GlareSeethe/Bismarck-Berlin.jpg

Glance:

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk103/GlareSeethe/Bismarck-glance.jpg

Sury, Joao, Qin and me are all Buddhists, Shaka and Julius are Taoist and Confucianist respectively, and at war with each other. Wang is a non-entity.

Techs:

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk103/GlareSeethe/Bismarck-techs.jpg

I'm ahead of everyone and can afford to delay Liberalism for a while. It looks like Sury's building The Apostolic Palace. I debated whether or not to go for that myself earlier in the game, as I've never won by the AP before. I'm still considering this, though I know the religious situation at the moment does not favor such a victory.

Tech tree:

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk103/GlareSeethe/Bismarck-techtree.jpg

Civics:

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk103/GlareSeethe/Bismarck-civics.jpg

Power:

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk103/GlareSeethe/Bismarck-power.jpg

A bit distressing but I'm in no danger of being attacked at the moment. I've got my production cities up now, though, and they've started producing troops. Hamburg is building my navy and Frankfurt (and Berlin, when not building anything else) my army.

Demographics:

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk103/GlareSeethe/Bismarck-demographics.jpg

And finally, victory conditions:

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk103/GlareSeethe/Bismarck-victoryconditions.jpg

I think overall I'm in a very good position, better than I've ever been in any of my Emperor games so far at this stage (granted there have only been like ten so far), so I'm concerned about making a wrong decision and throwing it away.

I could take Nationalism and build the Taj Mahal, that's easy but it feels like a bit of a copout cause I can definitely get something a little better... so I'd like to choose a victory path.

Space is doable but seems a bit inefficient with only eight cities, none of which are particularly good commerce-wise. Not sure I want to tech all the way to the end of the tree here.

What would be my best option for a military campaign? As the power graph shows, I'm well behind everyone except Sury, who I will catch up to soon. His land is pretty small but it looks good and would be a good beach head for the rest of that continent. But all my first victims would probably have to be my Buddhist friends, as Shaka and Julius are much further away. Since Sury is also building the AP (I assume, he won't trade Theology) that could cause problems with any wars.

Nevertheless, if I go down this route, approximately when should I attack and with what kind of army? Rifles / cannons are not that far away. I could probably also take Military Tradition from Liberalism and go with cuirassers or cavalry, which I almost never do. Or wait for infantry? I'm really not sure what the best choice would be.

Alternatively, I'm thinking of a UN victory. I think it's doable as long as the Buddhists don't switch to Free Religion. Shaka will be my rival unless any future wars change the current situation, and he'll be a piece of cake to defeat. In that case I can try and go for Scientific Method off Liberalism en route to Electricity / Radio / Mass Media (those wonders would do me good, actually, since I don't have many resources to trade around).

The save is attached. Any ideas?

With that lead, you can do what ever you want. Being on an island (large), conquest or domination will mean a long naval war so for me I would say no. The tech lead means a spaceship should be easy but it won't get you a huge score. Religious wins on a island type map are tough. With all the wonders in Berlin, a culture win should be easy (plus everyone is happy with you.

Use liberalism to get nationalism, turn research to 0% and culture as high as possible. research PP using artists. Switch to caste and run artists in you three high culture cities. Switch to free speech and sit back and pop those borders.

You seem to be low on cities.

I suppose you could do an attack on Surry?

I would delay liberalism for a war with Sury.
BTW, if you chose to be in caste system and build NE in berlin, you better work more than 1 scientist there. Stop producing there and get some quick GS there. You could bulb printing press, trade for engineering and self research gunpowder, then bulb chemistry. If you manage to do that before Sury gets education, get steel from liberalism.
Even with this lead, warring with galleys will be a bit difficult. Build some and upgrade later when you get astronomy.
Chemistry and guilds will also help your production with workshops, if you choose to stay in caste system.

Where are all your hapiness resources? Your happy cap is really low? are you selling them away for gold? get them back. Your cities need to get larger.
Also, don't be afraid to chop to speed things up.
If Sury is getting close, go for nationalism + taj as you have marble.

It may be a bit too late now, but I would have built an overlapping city south of the berlin river. It can develop the cottages while berlin focuses on specialists.
Also, with the GLH+colossus, you should have pretty much spammed cities on the ocean. All cities will get good commerce right from the start so there is no need to focus just on "great" cities.

Anyway, I would suggest to go for steel from liberalism, because cannon advantage is something that would last a lot of years, and your war will be slow due to galley support needed.

If you can build the AP in a religion different than the one you're running for diplo with the other AIs, you can then switch back to their religion and they'll vote for you FTW.

-Don't finish Lib now
- tech Gunpowder and Chemistry
-Lib steel
-make drydocks
-Tech optics and astro
-Make cannons in between
-Make a decent navy
-Invade

A little risky ( depends on how much of Education that Sury already researched ) , but a strong bet.

Thanks for the responses. In the mean time I got a little bored and continued towards a UN victory, but that failed since Joao became number one in population, which complicated the situation. I took Electricity off Liberalism and actually could've easily taken Radio or even Mass Media, since no one was going for it. And Sury did finish the AP in Buddhism a few turns later.

Anyway, I could continue from my failed UN attempt but I'd rather re-load from 990AD and try some of your ideas to see how I could've done it better. Actually, invading Sury and Joao and then going for a UN victory might be a decent option.

BTW, if you chose to be in caste system and build NE in berlin, you better work more than 1 scientist there.

I built the NE there mostly because of all the wonders and because I had no other candidate for a GP farm. But you are right, better to focus it more on GP.

Where are all your hapiness resources?

I think I posted this right before the wine got hooked up, and the fur came online a little while later. I definitely wasn't trading any of my sole resources to anyone, though.

So I will prepare for a war with Sury and hopefully Joao afterwards. Will aim for Steel off Liberalism since that seems like the concensus. I'll update on the results. Thanks again for the help!

Well, it all worked until I actually went to war and then my poor warmongering skills were revealed. Sury actually asked to be my vassal voluntarily so I went for Joao first. The AP unhappiness penalty after the inevitable call to stop the war was painful, but to be honest I just played poorly and impatiently and went to war too early.

Re-loaded again (I know...) and took TMIT's advice about the AP. Beat Sury to it and built it in Hinduism, won a couple of centuries later. Not spectacular and I probably should've manned up to my failure at war, but at least I learned how to use the AP, and I'm sick of this specific game anyway so I'm calling it a victory and moving on. If I learn how to get myself to such an advantage consistently I'll be more daring.

Culture as unclethrill suggested would've been possible from the point of my failed UN attempt as well, I think, though it'd have been a race with Qin.

Anyway, thanks again guys.