what would ahd happened? japan eventually got rid of its isolationa and became the power of asia in the first half of the 20th century.......china waited adn it was too late when she started to modernise, what if like japan, china had started to modernise?

Being the hi-tech dumpster of the world and using only fossil fuels as power sources,
the only thing they accomplish is a suicide. Voted for the Godzilla option.

Usually on China-related topics I wait for Knight-Dragon to respond first but I'll hazard a post:

I think China has immense potential but is struggling with some very basic contradictions. How it resolves those contradictions will determine the country's future course. China is a powerfully-centralized dictatorship bolstered by a powerful military that has embarked on a reform effort ushering in a socio-economic system that requires maximum amount of decentralized self-determinism and decision-making power. A burgeoning Chinese nationalism is keeping the lid on for the moment (with help from the People's Army) but that will not last forever, as growing worker's protests are showing. Also, the reforms are not uniformly spread; Beijing has targeted reform zones that are benefitting immensely from the impressive economic growth China's economy has shown over the past decade but large swaths of China are excluded from that growth - and in fact, with a creaking slowdown in the Chinese economy over the past couple years, those (mostly rural) areas excluded from reform zones have born a much greater amount of the misery than the urban areas.

The result is a pseudo-fascist economy, which we've never seen functionally before. Nazi Germany in 1934-1945 was a fascist economy (central dictatorship maintaining a pseudo-capitalist corporatist-style economy) but most of those years (1936-1945) were geared towards a war, which greatly distorts an economy. I suspect it cannot work for long, and sooner or later China will be forced by its own people to either open up the political processes and ditch the one-party state, or crack down to re-impose central authority.

I choose the last option, seriously. If China become as industriualized as Japan, Europe or USA, the world amount of ressources will be depleted in a matters of months.

China has never been expansionist state, so whatever it will turn into, there is no danger for the rest of the world.
What if china industrialises as fast as japan did....??? It doesn't need to it is completely understood that China will become the next superpower (after USA) .

I dont see China ever becoming more than a regional super power.

They do not posess the wealth, technology or (hi-tech) industrial base to compete with the US or Europe. That could change, but as Vrylakas pointed out, they have alot of issues.

I also chose the last option. China industrialized to Japan's level would use up the known supply of world oil in less than a year. The pollution would change the color of the sky over the USA. And then the giant dragon would come.

Originally posted by Vrylakas
Usually on China-related topics I wait for Knight-Dragon to respond first but I'll hazard a post::)

Originally posted by Bifrost
It doesn't need to it is completely understood that China will become the next superpower (after USA).Not becoming the next superpower; regaining its ancient status as a regional superpower (at the very least). Remember, this country began as a contemporary of Imperial Rome. ;)

The way I see it, China today was like Taiwan in the 60s and 70s, on a far bigger, more massive scale. Taiwan in those days was pretty much a totalitarian state where the KMT and the armed forces called the shots. Yet, today it has what was the opposition as the powerholder and lots of personal freedom (politically as well as economically).

When China and the Chinese people's full potential is unleashed, it's going to be nothing like Japan. Already, some Japanese hotshot writer was cautioning the Japanese to prepare mentally to fall back onto their traditional role as China's subservient client state, lest they be caught by surprise some day.

Even now, China is already exerting an effect where I live. Every yr, I read of dozens of Chinese delegations coming to S'pore to 'observe and study'. Every weekend, I see dozens of ads for China postings. At the moment, China is drawing in lots of investments, people, managers etc etc fr overseas, esp fr HK, Taiwan, S'pore. Every weekend, when I go home to M'sia, I see dozens of Chinese tourists crossing to M'sia too. Many Chinese tourists visit S'pore and M'sia each yr (in the 100ks at least) and we supposedly had a higher std of living than the Chinese.

Sure, the Chinese still have lots of issues to deal with but so long as war didn't break out (either internally or with a foreign nation like the USA), they will get there. ;) The Taiwanese or the Japanese or the Koreans didn't exactly have smooth sailing getting to where they are today and the Chinese has the benefit of learning fr their experiences.

And they're learning. Hard. While people like us are BSing about China as the next superpower, playing games or posting at CFC :lol:, students in Chinese universites are hard at work, studying (university ed there is a luxury). I've read firsthand testimonies fr S'porean students who chose to study in Chinese universities in the news every now and then and in S'porean documentaries about China. The average Chinese uni student is very hardworking - trust me.

Originally posted by stalin006
what would ahd happened? japan eventually got rid of its isolationa and became the power of asia in the first half of the 20th century.......china waited adn it was too late when she started to modernise, what if like japan, china had started to modernise? China is already modernized. What she needs is to get onto the next level of that modernization drive. No one today will even seriously think about landing a conventional force on Chinese territories or sending up a couple of gunboats up the Yangzi, yet at the turn of the century, the European nations, America and Japan were doing exactly that. They had come a long way, and still have some way to go. ;)

During the upheavals fr 1800 till today, the Chinese people's mentality had taken a very dramatic shift. All they need to do now is reach the end-result of that mentality shift and see everything to the end. Changing an entire people's perception is probably the hardest part of the process. In the 1800s and early 1900s, the Chinese think of Western technology/thinking/social forms as evil, unnecessary, unsuitable etc. Today, they're embracing it as their own. You'll have to look at very long term picture. ;)

Originally posted by Sultan Bhargash
I also chose the last option. China industrialized to Japan's level would use up the known supply of world oil in less than a year. The pollution would change the color of the sky over the USA. And then the giant dragon would come. It's only fair. Right now, on a per capita basis, the average Chinese is contributing less pollution than the average American or European. Why shld the average Chinese make sacrifices to cut down on his/her per capita pollution level whereas the average American can still enjoy its present level of per capita pollution? :confused:

As far I'm concerned, even if China is polluting the earth five times as much as America, there's nothing to shout about since China has five times the population of America (I think).

And the Chinese are making an effort to cut down. Awkwardly, since they have many other things on their minds (like ensuring everyone has a job, a roof over his head, enough food to consume; you know the mundane stuff ;)), but they've made a public commitment to do it.

Originally posted by Bifrost
China has never been expansionist state, so whatever it will turn into, there is no danger for the rest of the world.
What if china industrialises as fast as japan did....??? It doesn't need to it is completely understood that China will become the next superpower (after USA).The reason why the Chinese are almost uninterested in expanding their power militarily is 'cause culturally, the Chinese are confident of themselves, as a people, nation, state, culture, whatever. After all, China had been conquered/subdued by foreigners many times (the last time was by the Japanese during WW2), yet eventually each time, a Chinese state will re-emerge.

Remember, China is originally a contemporary of Imperial Rome. Still using the same language e.g.

Also, China itself is already very large and they'd more than their fair share of problems to handle, w/o those fr potential conquered lands. ;)

He came, he saw, he posted. :D

China and the US are drawing closer together, and will probably make alot of economic deals in the coming decade.

The future of both countries are becoming interdependent, and I severly doubt we will have another war with each other. It just isnt profitable.

China has the full potential to surpass US as the most powerful nation in the world with the population and natural resources alone. However, they don't have the desire to play the role as the "world police". They have big enough economy and resource base to be isolated (as they have been in the past), the only thing that will drive them out to interact with other nations is money.

The past disadvantage become today's advantage: As one political entity, they didn't have any reason to compete until the Eurpoeans arrived. That kept them stucked in the middle ages until 1900's. Today, as one political entity, with one race and one religion (as athiests) they have little reason for internal conflicts.

So my conclusion: they will be powerful but they will not be a threat to anyone.

Originally posted by Hades
Today, as one political entity, with one race and one religion (as athiests) they have little reason for internal conflicts.As I had mentioned sometimes before, the Chinese are not all of the same one race. The closest you can say is they're all of the same cultural group. ;) Prejudices do exist betw the different Chinese racial groups (esp betw north and south), but with the opening to the outside world and more awareness of other nationalities, the Chinese as a whole are growing closer, as a people. ;)

Despite professed Communism, the average Chinese still practise their traditional beliefs i.e. Daoism folk religion, Buddhism, ancestor worship etc. However no real organised religion on the same scale as the West or Islam, as had always been the case in China since the First Empire. One of the emperor's role is to be the head-priest, the mediator betw Heaven and Earth. ;)

My maternal relatives in China still maintain our ancestral hall, where the ancestors are still being worshipped, Communism or no Communism. ;)