Hi!I have been away for months.It is been a long time since I had discussion with you people on these topics.

1.Many westerners here think that Mao killed 60 million people that was wrong.Millions did died but not as high as the estimate of 60 million.They died because of Mao's poor agricultural policy

2.The Communist Party isnt as bad as many people think.After Deng take over the leadership in late 1970's Chinese economy rocketed to quadruple with 2 decade.These spectacular economic growth could not be achieved if not for their economic policy(which had been praised by many countries) and now CCP is considered a party whose main aim is to achieve spectacular economic growth not to quarrel for ideology anymore,this gained my admiration.It is true that CCP during Mao time is a bad ass but not certainly after Deng's takeover.Recent 16 th party congress shows that Leadership transition has been smooth.There might be some human right abuses now to maintain security.In the end pro's outweigh the con's for present CCP

3.Spectacular economic growth of China led some experts to believe it might be the world's largest by 2020.Present(by counting PPP standard) China's GDP is half of US.World's largest economy equals to world superpower.

I will be glad to debate/discuss with anyone who agrees or disagrees with these points above

1. agree
2. agree
3. agree

not much to discuss:(

AAaaahhhhhhh! He's back!
http://www.civfanatics.net/uploads2/nervous.gif

There might be some human right abuses now to maintain security


It's fact - there's no speculation about this. The way the Chinese communists maintain power is something which I find highly repulsive. Brutal ideologic battles within China's borders have been a tradition since the dawn of communism, and millions of innocent Chinese farmers, children, women and any other human being, who deserve same equal rights as the Chincoms have had to pay a high price.
The Chinese communists fail to look beyond romanticization of the future of China, they fail dismally to handle internal problems, e.g. starvation, human rights, personal liberties etc. A serious revision is needed if they are to remain in power; I am saying that I would really surprise me if the Chinese people will tolerate this kind of treatment for say, the next two-three decades.

Does anyone remember Tianamen Square? C'mon, you'll never convince me that the PRC is anywhere near good. Also, just because their economy looks good doesn't mean that everyone is happy. The ends don't justify the means. Western China is almost 100% poor. I agree with Nixon. In a few years, if this keeps happening, then the people will rise up, the Gov' in Exile on Tiawan will come back and take power.

PS: It sounds as if you typed this thread from a script, with a gun to your head. ;)

Originally posted by The Art of War
Does anyone remember Tianamen Square? C'mon, you'll never convince me that the PRC is anywhere near good. Also, just because their economy looks good doesn't mean that everyone is happy. The ends don't justify the means. Western China is almost 100% poor. I agree with Nixon. In a few years, if this keeps happening, then the people will rise up, the Gov' in Exile on Tiawan will come back and take power.

PS: It sounds as if you typed this thread from a script, with a gun to your head. ;)

If western China took power, they will set up a maoist regime. However this won't happen. Some part of Fayadi post can be discussed but the fact that China, under communist rule, will become a superpower in less that 50 years is almost certain. I think the people will support that very well. If the people treatment in China is similar to Vietnam, I can say that it is very different from Nixon and The Art of War view.

In my opinion, I don't think China will ever become the superpower everyone's talking about. I believe that I period comes when the Chinese will hit the bounds - and swirl into a huge economic recession. A limit will be there, if you continue to expand your economic assets without giving the people breathing room and give them a chance to live their own lives.

The government will never be able to turn the entire population into working slaves to uphold the economy prosperity. Also, bear in mind that the fact that the Chinese government continues to suppress free thought, that surfing the internet will give you a sentence hampering a regain of life's normal course for the rest of your life - you'll never be able to stand on your own feet, and trust me the government doesn't care.

Any inexploitable workforce which is unable of performing its task will be properly left in the dark, while the government then lifts birthrate reductions for while until the old one has been replaced. What I am saying ís that having an immoral trade partner such as China, WILL discourage foreign investment sooner of later - some people do actually care, and so do loads of human rights organizations, believe it or not.
Allowing democracy and economic boosts are two inseparable factors in leading your country on the right course. Other have failed, and so will China does it not seriously reconsider its options; but it won't as long as it stays communist, thus it's up to the Chinese people whether they want to continue in permanent misery or if they want a chance to secure the lives of their great grandchildren.

And that would be my nickle for now.

Fayadi wrote:

1.Many westerners here think that Mao killed 60 million people that was wrong.Millions did died but not as high as the estimate of 60 million.They died because of Mao's poor agricultural policy.

Have you ever seen the Pythonesque film Erik the Viking? There's a scene where the protagonist Erik accidentally kills a woman in her hut while trying to save her from another viking's attack. Feeling very guilty about this while his sword is embedded in her gut, he apologises profusely to her, to which her sarcastic reply is, "Oh, well, that makes it all better then." Then she dies.

There is a legal term in Common Law called "negligent homicide", which refers to a situation where someone does not actually intend to kill anyone but does something so stupid that any reasonable person might assume this activity could result in somebody getting killed. Mao's agricultural policy falls into this category, as being so ideologically driven as to have ignored basic environmental and scientific realities, tro the extent that China's agricuiltural economy virtually collapsed, resulting in millions of deaths by starvation, etc. That Mao stuck to this policy long after it was apparent it had failed is where the criminal part really comes in. face it; he has their blood on his hands as much as if he'd ordered execution squads.

2.The Communist Party isnt as bad as many people think.After Deng take over the leadership in late 1970's Chinese economy rocketed to quadruple with 2 decade.These spectacular economic growth could not be achieved if not for their economic policy(which had been praised by many countries) and now CCP is considered a party whose main aim is to achieve spectacular economic growth not to quarrel for ideology anymore,this gained my admiration.It is true that CCP during Mao time is a bad ass but not certainly after Deng's takeover.Recent 16 th party congress shows that Leadership transition has been smooth.There might be some human right abuses now to maintain security.In the end pro's outweigh the con's for present CCP.

One needs to define "bad". By Chinese standards the CCP may indeed not be so "bad", especially since Mao died. It is perhaps doing more than any Chinese government ever has to improve the lives of average Chinese. However, in terms of international standards, there is still much room for improvement. It is a dictatorship still, which like all dictatorships has as its primary concern its continued grip on power (witness Tianamen Square in June 1989). Like all dictatorships the CCP maintains a police state with spies, torture, political prisoners, and repression. It derives political legitimacy through Chinese nationalism, which as Europe proved through two world wars is not always the best means for dealing with international affairs. The current Chinese government also still has an imperial bent, insisting on ruling "traditional Chinese regions" like Tibet or Taiwan that do not necessarily want to be ruled from Beijing. Chinese nationalism, coupled with this imperial bent, has feuled a certain Chinese militarism that has worried many of China's neighbors (Philippines, South Korea, Vietnam, etc.). In limited and targeted regions there has been a significant amount of economic liberalization in China but that has not been matched with a commensurate level of political liberalization - and it never will be so long as a dictatorship is in power.

3.Spectacular economic growth of China led some experts to believe it might be the world's largest by 2020.Present(by counting PPP standard) China's GDP is half of US.World's largest economy equals to world superpower.

China's economic performance has indeed been spectacular but there are some things to keep in mind.

1. While growth rates have been stellar, all emerging markets tend to have huge growth rates because their economies are so primitive that they have much room for growth. A 3.5% growth rate in the United States is far more significant than an 8% growth rate in China.

2. Economies evolve and mature. China's is just about reaching the end of that first stage of spectacular growth where the country's sheer numbers in population and earliest beginnings of an entrepanurial culture leads to huge growth. That stage is however ending as China's economy is becoming somewhat more mature and in need of different kinds of internal developments - which require a significant restructuring of internal investment, banking and security laws. Also, the huge population that is in asset in the opening stages of economic liberalization become a liability in the more mature stages.

3. One of the major issues facing China's further economic development is one I've already brought up, that of freedom. Completely ignoring the political "niceties" of personal freedom, the reality is that capitalist economies operate on and require the free flow of information. As a dictatorship, the current Chinese government is bent (like all dictatorships) on controlling and limiting the flow of information its citizens have access to. As a fixed-income research analyst I am constantly sourcing information on companies, funds, international news and bonds from public filings and private sources - HUGE volumes of information - which is all necessary as market intelligence. China restricts this kind of information, and it will - is already - having an impact on its economic performance. The WTO will have some leverage in opening up some information, but not much. Eventually the dictatorship in Beijing will be forced with a decision, whether to chose between continued rule or economic sanity and growth. Which do you think they'll chose? My bet is they'll vote the way dictators almost always vote; for themselves.

In short, China's economy is slated over the next decade to continue growing but at decreased levels, losing steam each year.

Actually in my new sociology book, made this year(2002) has the hmmm its the National money thing, well it has US at first with 8,000+ billion and Japan at second with 3,000+ billion then UK with like 1,500 billion, i remember china being at like 1,100 billion...
i'll look it up later and give u the numbers

Ok

1. IMO its BS. I've read/heard that he killed over 100 million if not over 150 million. And that may be a conservative number. Ofcourse this is through all his idiotic policies, which resulted in the famine. Nevertheless I don't think any human being has killed more humans than he has.

2. I agree.

3. Maybe. I don't think superpowers are going to emerge in the sense of the British in the 19th century or Mongols in the 13th or Ottomans in the 15th or the US now days. Either China will conquer the world through sheer overwhelming population. :D. It will probably take longer than 20 years. I'd say 50.


Side note---

I'm depressed because I keep thinking there will be no significant event in my lifetime. USSR collapsed but I was pretty young so it wasn't a big deal. Maybe I'm comparing my generation to that of my parents (who are the Baby Boomers) and my grandparents (who are the "greatest generation ever") and everything in the past decade compared to what my parents and especially my grandparents seems very insignificant. I want some big event to occur. Some major change in the world. And I want to be part of it, as in being young, as in it will hopefully happen in the next ten years. I don't want to live through my wholelife and at my death bed find that China is finally a superpower or the US has conquered Mars from the Googabogas or whatever. I guess "Be careful what you wish for" applies here.

Originally posted by God

Side note---

I'm depressed because I keep thinking there will be no significant event in my lifetime. USSR collapsed but I was pretty young so it wasn't a big deal. Maybe I'm comparing my generation to that of my parents (who are the Baby Boomers) and my grandparents (who are the "greatest generation ever") and everything in the past decade compared to what my parents and especially my grandparents seems very insignificant. I want some big event to occur. Some major change in the world. And I want to be part of it, as in being young, as in it will hopefully happen in the next ten years. I don't want to live through my wholelife and at my death bed find that China is finally a superpower or the US has conquered Mars from the Googabogas or whatever. I guess "Be careful what you wish for" applies here.

I find the september 11 fit well in the "major event" categorie.

Sept 11th is big.

Globilization.

EU.

Internet.

Population Explosion.

Originally posted by andrewgprv
Sept 11th is big.

Globilization.

EU.

Internet.

Population Explosion.

Yeah well... Globalization, EU, Internet and popular explosion are hardly "events". When you become aware of them, you find that they existed since many years.

well what has not exsteed by many years? everything is virtually as old as teh piramids! one way or anotehr

Aliens may invade. Who knows?

Yikes! Only 15 posts, and were already going off-topic here! :eek:

Then again, there is very little to discuss, as Yoda Power said. I agree with everything. :)

I agree with none of it.

China may become a regional superpower, maybe. But thats about it.

I doubt highly that they will surpass Japan, much less the US, in GNP.

I'm not even going to touch the Mao comment.

Originally posted by SunTzu
Actually in my new sociology book, made this year(2002) has the hmmm its the National money thing, well it has US at first with 8,000+ billion and Japan at second with 3,000+ billion then UK with like 1,500 billion, i remember china being at like 1,100 billion...
i'll look it up later and give u the numbers

That's by currency value.I was talking about PPP standard.Present Chinese Renminbi is undervalued (many countries have said that including Japan and USA).The Govt delibaretely did not want it to appreciate so that it can compete better in international market.For example 1 US dollars = 8.3 RMB
but within several years ,DEFINITELY RMB is going to appreciate due to market pressure.I just read newspaper yesterday China's GDP had reached 10 trillion yuan.US had 8-9 trillion US dollars .
So I choose PPP standard because it is more accurate.By counting PPP standard Chinese GDP is 4.5 trillion while US is 9 trillion

Originally posted by joespaniel
I agree with none of it.

China may become a regional superpower, maybe. But thats about it.

I doubt highly that they will surpass Japan, much less the US, in GNP.

I'm not even going to touch the Mao comment.

You have underestimated the true ability of China.Is being a superpower for millenias not a proof enough that China can be again the Superpower?I am willing to listen to some economic debate why China's GDP cant be bigger than USA
Forget to tell all of you,the new goal of the recent 16th party congress is to quadruple the economy by 2020.Some of you might laugh at the new goal.But I am quite optimist about it

Originally posted by God
I'm depressed because I keep thinking there will be no significant event in my lifetime. USSR collapsed but I was pretty young so it wasn't a big deal. I guess "Be careful what you wish for" applies here.

"It was the best of times. It was the worst of times." A reference to the French revolution. It also fits the subject here, the communist Chinese revolution. In the end, all that seems to have happened is that the people at the top have changed, and that China lost half a generation of knowledge in the purges.

When this generation is laid to rest, I don't see how things will be much different than if Chaing had held power. That is the history of China is it not? Swallow the conqueror.

J

If US can become superpower I don't see how China cannot. After all, China has fallen far enough, it's time for her to get back up. Don't believe me? Let's see the pattern. It was the east who first dominates the world (1000 BC to 0th AD?), and then it's the west (11th AD to 21th AD). Makes perfect sense to me east is going to dominate again...

Originally posted by SLIMSHADY339802
If US can become superpower I don't see how China cannot. After all, China has fallen far enough, it's time for her to get back up. Don't believe me? Let's see the pattern. It was the east who first dominates the world (1000 BC to 0th AD?), and then it's the west (11th AD to 21th AD). Makes perfect sense to me east is going to dominate again...

The East already is. Japan, losers of WWII, have grown to the second largest economy in the world (or around there). Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan are all rapidly increasing (temporarily decreasing now, but you get the picture :p ) European nations are gradually declining.

:goodjob: to Vrylakas and La vie en Joe ;)
Wrote a big reply to that effect, but the computer ate it.
For China to become a superpower, it must be able to extend its economic influence through other means. Japan has had a large economy, but is not seriously mentioned as a superpower.
Also, for everything to happen a Fayadi suggests, nothing untoward could happen; it does not account for the possible changes that can occur in 20 years. The USSR was alive and well in 1969, if moving into malaise slightly. 20 years later, things happened that were not predicted.
The "China will outgrow everyone and everything" argument depends on everything working according to their script. And the lessons of history tell us that things like that do not happen.

Originally posted by Silverflame


The East already is. Japan, losers of WWII, have grown to the second largest economy in the world (or around there). Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan are all rapidly increasing (temporarily decreasing now, but you get the picture :p ) European nations are gradually declining.

Finally some supporter :)
Every country in the east is growing rapidly, it's time for the old dragon to reawaken :evil:
It won't be easy for China to get back on track, but she will eventually overcome her obstacles.

Originally posted by God
Ok

1. IMO its BS. I've read/heard that he killed over 100 million if not over 150 million. And that may be a conservative number. Ofcourse this is through all his idiotic policies, which resulted in the famine. Nevertheless I don't think any human being has killed more humans than he has.

2. I agree.

3. Maybe. I don't think superpowers are going to emerge in the sense of the British in the 19th century or Mongols in the 13th or Ottomans in the 15th or the US now days. Either China will conquer the world through sheer overwhelming population. :D. It will probably take longer than 20 years. I'd say 50.


Side note---

I'm depressed because I keep thinking there will be no significant event in my lifetime. USSR collapsed but I was pretty young so it wasn't a big deal. Maybe I'm comparing my generation to that of my parents (who are the Baby Boomers) and my grandparents (who are the "greatest generation ever") and everything in the past decade compared to what my parents and especially my grandparents seems very insignificant. I want some big event to occur. Some major change in the world. And I want to be part of it, as in being young, as in it will hopefully happen in the next ten years. I don't want to live through my wholelife and at my death bed find that China is finally a superpower or the US has conquered Mars from the Googabogas or whatever. I guess "Be careful what you wish for" applies here.

1.100 million to 150 million?That's nonsense I have read both Chinese and Western sources they said the maximum figure is 20 million.By the way ,can you tell me where do you get all this figure from? It is funny when you people give me overstated figure

Originally posted by Simon Darkshade
:goodjob: to Vrylakas and La vie en Joe ;)
Wrote a big reply to that effect, but the computer ate it.
For China to become a superpower, it must be able to extend its economic influence through other means. Japan has had a large economy, but is not seriously mentioned as a superpower.
Also, for everything to happen a Fayadi suggests, nothing untoward could happen; it does not account for the possible changes that can occur in 20 years. The USSR was alive and well in 1969, if moving into malaise slightly. 20 years later, things happened that were not predicted.
The "China will outgrow everyone and everything" argument depends on everything working according to their script. And the lessons of history tell us that things like that do not happen.

The West(and CIA) had always overestimated the Soviet economy.Not until 1980's they found the huge mess of the economy.You cant compare USSR with China.USSR government's economic policy is horrondous and has an overly centralised economy.CCP is much more an effective government than CPSU.Do you know that many former Russian communists admired CCP ?
I forget to tell you why Gorbachev's reform is silly,as what Deng had said his greatest mistake is to make political reform before economic reform.Deng believed in having economic reform first and political reform much ,much later.Thats why CCP is able to survive today

You miss the point - for your prediction to come true, everything must happen according to script, and nothing untoward occur. History shows this does not happen.

but it doesnt mean china will be a third world country forever, china will at least be a major power in asia, a major superpower/? i dont know

Hey! just a thought, look around you, how many things you see is made in China?

In some ways China is already a superpower, it's just ppl don't realise it. Why doesn't US attack N.Korea? 1) there's no oil there, 2) 70,000(?) US soldiers died fighting the Chinese army in Korea 1950-1953.

I don't really care whether the eastern wind is stronger than the western or other wise. But I think if Chinese people are to live in prosperity and peace then the gap between the rich and the poor must be closed, there must be more liberal reforms, and above all NO more revolutions, cultural or voilent.