Okay, I have crunched the numbers and read the tea leaves and can offer a forecast.

We shall see negative growth during the second and third quarters of 2012. As usual there will be forward looking and lagging indicators. We can expect a huge wail of denial from the political and media establishments but this will be followed by some serious anger across the board when the implications are realized.

I suspect that equities will be somewhat more slow to adjust due to stubborn insistence over the soundness of operations and due to what is becoming a religious dependence on Ben's Helo but we are going to test 10,000 by the fall of the year.

It will be bad and perhaps catastrophic. So we had a peak of 13,021.51 and can reasonably expect to sell and wait till things get down to 10,400 or so and reevaluate.

Gold looks good to get over 2,000 late this summer. But get it in hand not in paper.

Good luck everybody.

I see a lot of claims here, including one of number-crunching. But before I believe the claims, I'd probably have to see the actual number-crunching.

/politicallyneutral

No, just... no.

There could be some slowdown due to the slowdown in Europe and high gas prices. But the other trends are all, slightly, positive.

Republican hoping for economic decline? How surprising.

They've been working to make it happen after all. :)

The money supply is contracting and the velocity has plumetted to levels not seen in 50+ years.

The world economy is like a burst balloon that was hastily patched and reinflated by force. Now that the pumping is receeding the effects are immediately evident if you only look.

I suggest you do so.

I'll trust people who have demonstrated knowing what they are talking about first.

I might be a quarter late on this forecast, but not more.

And your expertise is?

Okay, I have crunched the numbers

Please show your working.

Blast you, shadow government!

Okay, I have crunched the numbers and read the tea leaves and can offer a forecast.

I had a friend tell me that taking economic advice from tea leaves is not such a good idea.

marked for unconditional forecast.

marked for unconditional forecast.

:D

(I see what you did there)

MisterCooper is right, and here's why: because the United States has an election coming.

The election itself will be a cause for market downturns, because economic markets don't like uncertainty. I should note the markets don't actually care if it's Obama or Santorum who gets elected; it's the not knowing which one will get elected that economies find scary.

Republican hoping for economic decline? How surprising.

Quoted for truth ;)

How much is the OP willing to bet on this? Let him put his money where his mouth is. And I'll take paper not gold. :)

Careful; he could be a college student who currently has minus ten thousand dollars, which I'm sure he wouldn't mind giving to you if he lost the bet. :D

This is the Internet; no point worrying about who the OP'er really is.

I am going to be making a lot more money shorting stocks this year than any of you folks have to wager.

Recession ahead? Please, were still in one! :rolleyes:

how much is the op willing to bet on this? Let him put his money where his mouth is. And i'll take paper not gold. :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTR5EVI1TK8

i'm with the bears on this, though i'm not sure about the time frame.

Republican hoping for economic decline? How surprising.

Seriously. I mean all the news has been positive, all the numbers have be good, yet if you turn on Fox News you'd think the end of the world was near.

I am going to be making a lot more money shorting stocks this year than any of you folks have to wager.

Actually, you're going to be making a whole lot less money because you're telling everyone to short stocks, and so the profit margin will diminish as everyone's trying to jump on this train.

Smart investors don't reveal their secrets and the reasons for them, especially with a given timeframe.

Ah, the CFC OT prophet of economic doom with knowledge of things esoteric came between the lower mortals again. Please, be welcome. Will you visit us each quarter?

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=447811

Ah, the CFC OT prophet of economic doom with knowledge of things esoteric came between the lower mortals again. Please, be welcome. Will you visit us each quarter?

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=447811
Wonder how the stock shorting has gone since then.

You can deride me as a prophet of doom, but you do so to your own risk.

Consider:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46718912

"The U.S. economic situation is so bad, the author of "The Black Swan" said he has "no choice but to own stocks" to "preserve my financial situation."

I own stocks," Nassim Taleb told CNBC Tuesday. "I don’t trust Treasury bonds. I’d rather have a dividend than a coupon. I am afraid of hyperinflation. So I have no choice but to own stock and some real estate to preserve my financial situation."

He also has "some euros," because despite the bad press, "they know the problems in Europe" but the U.S. does not."

We are in the midst of financial repression and if things go as planned here is how it works.

The central banks are running essentially a command economy forcing wealth where they want it. Totally artificial. Given the pols inability to control spending and the inability to tax sufficiently to cover the debt the way out is to tax by inflation. Reduce the debt overhang by inflation.

Do I think it will work? No I do not.

People do not understand what the market actually is. The market is liberty. It is choice. The market is eternal. It flourishes in all systems. People always have choice. When faced with repression and unable to overcome it, human beings always make a market decision and that decision is always going to be the same. We will not support a repressive regime.

The last time this approach was taken, to retire debts after the war, it was coupled with a private sector that was not indebted and thus had a path to prosperity. And the war debt was considered just.

In contrast now we have an indebted private sector and no path for the masses to seek prosperity. Instead we are churning out generations of debt slaves. Are they supposed to meekly accept a lifetime of slavery to pay off unjust debts? It will not happen. The governmental and financial systems of the West (and Japan) will collapse. The dollar, the euro and the yen are dead currencies trading. Its just a matter of timing.

The path for those with little is clear to see. I've put the majority of what I have into rental property and gold at a 4-1 ratio.

For those with a lot its much tougher. Rats on a sinking ship. Trying to find a place to preserve their wealth which exists mostly in the form of debt. In an age of debt destruction. Good luck with that.

So one guy deciding to weight his portfolio heavier towards stocks is a sign of an impending stock market crash?

I am not sure that I share MisterCooper's opinion, but I would be concerned about a strengthening dollar. Europe's currency is weak and the rest of the world is moving toward weakening their own currencies with QE and lower interest rates. We've been fine, until now, but a stronger dollar is going to hurt.

I suspect that equities will be somewhat more slow to adjust due to stubborn insistence over the soundness of operations and due to what is becoming a religious dependence on Ben's Helo
BLACKHAWK DOWN!!!!!!

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at its policy meeting Tuesday

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/dow-hits-5-high-nasdaq-above-3000-romer-202758589.html

So we had a peak of 13,021.51

On Tuesday, the Dow rose 218 points to 13,178, its highest close since 2007

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/dow-hits-5-high-nasdaq-above-3000-romer-202758589.html

So we had a peak of 13,021.51


He's already wrong. The DOW is at 13,177.68, as of this post.



EDIT:
BLACKHAWK DOWN!!!!!!

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at its policy meeting Tuesday

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/dow-hits-5-high-nasdaq-above-3000-romer-202758589.html



On Tuesday, the Dow rose 218 points to 13,178, its highest close since 2007

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/dow-hits-5-high-nasdaq-above-3000-romer-202758589.html

DAMMIT!

I wonder how many shorts had to sell gold to cover their margin calls today.

You can deride me as a prophet of doom, but you do so to your own risk.

Consider:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46718912

"The U.S. economic situation is so bad, the author of "The Black Swan" said he has "no choice but to own stocks" to "preserve my financial situation."

I own stocks," Nassim Taleb told CNBC Tuesday. "I don’t trust Treasury bonds. I’d rather have a dividend than a coupon. I am afraid of hyperinflation. So I have no choice but to own stock and some real estate to preserve my financial situation."

He also has "some euros," because despite the bad press, "they know the problems in Europe" but the U.S. does not."


Where do you fail to understand any of the situation? Let me count the ways.

No one who uses the term "hyperinflation" has even the remotest clue of what is going on. It's a red flag of cluelessness.




We are in the midst of financial repression and if things go as planned here is how it works.

The central banks are running essentially a command economy forcing wealth where they want it. Totally artificial. Given the pols inability to control spending and the inability to tax sufficiently to cover the debt the way out is to tax by inflation. Reduce the debt overhang by inflation.

Do I think it will work? No I do not.

People do not understand what the market actually is. The market is liberty. It is choice. The market is eternal. It flourishes in all systems. People always have choice. When faced with repression and unable to overcome it, human beings always make a market decision and that decision is always going to be the same. We will not support a repressive regime.


And yet the greatest creation of private sector wealth in history was under a regime of financial repression that exceeds by an order of magnitude anything being discussed today.


The last time this approach was taken, to retire debts after the war, it was coupled with a private sector that was not indebted and thus had a path to prosperity. And the war debt was considered just.

In contrast now we have an indebted private sector and no path for the masses to seek prosperity. Instead we are churning out generations of debt slaves. Are they supposed to meekly accept a lifetime of slavery to pay off unjust debts? It will not happen. The governmental and financial systems of the West (and Japan) will collapse. The dollar, the euro and the yen are dead currencies trading. Its just a matter of timing.

The path for those with little is clear to see. I've put the majority of what I have into rental property and gold at a 4-1 ratio.

For those with a lot its much tougher. Rats on a sinking ship. Trying to find a place to preserve their wealth which exists mostly in the form of debt. In an age of debt destruction. Good luck with that.


And that there is the "free market conservative" at work.

MisterCooper, what can we expect up here in Canada? Given your indepth knowledge and expertise in the area, could you run some forecasts for me?

Nassim Taleb is actually David Camerons (British PM) freaking guru. Apparently they meet up in Downing Street and shoot the sh*t. And I do agree with Cutlass on the hyperinflation claim, where is that coming from?!

I was downstairs using the microwave and the TV which is on the news says stocks are very high today and 15 banks passed ... something. I couldnt make out that part. 4 banks failed but most of them passed.

Today was a good day for the stock market, as others mentioned. The business news is pretty good these days.

Given the pols inability to control spending and the inability to tax sufficiently to cover the debt the way out is to tax by inflation. Reduce the debt overhang by inflation.

I wish. But it's not gonna happen. The inflation-haters have way too much power. Too much for it to happen, and too much, period.

I'm not gonna say you're wrong about double-dip recession though. The Eurozone could still implode, for all I know.

Nassim Taleb used to be a major deflationist. he's a bigger flip flopper than Mitt Romney.

as a comedian, though, he is a class act.

I am going to be making a lot more money shorting stocks this year than any of you folks have to wager.

Self fullfilling prophecy ?

Cause stockmarket to tank by scaring people into dumping shares, and buying gold. I wonder if Republicans could coordinate such an event with media and sufficent montary control to trigger something like this.

Being a bit of a quant, i always ask questions and conduct analysis that challenges my beliefs so I avoid confirmation biases. I read a prodigious amount of analysis to make sure I'm not confirming my own personal world view which is currently in conflict with my quantitative analysis of 30 countries.

My macroeconomic rules have served me well with a 69% correlation to rising and falling equity markets. As of today, that trend went sideways after improvement last month and is closer to global trough than global peak.

Can you articulate further what's driving your world view? Specifically, gold since that trade seems to ride on the belief that the ranks of the fearful will continue to grow.

Wait, so are you shorting, or are you buying stock? Make up your mind!!

Being a bit of a quant, i always ask questions and conduct analysis that challenges my beliefs so I avoid confirmation biases. I read a prodigious amount of analysis to make sure I'm not confirming my own personal world view which is currently in conflict with my quantitative analysis of 30 countries.

My macroeconomic rules have served me well with a 69% correlation to rising and falling equity markets. As of today, that trend went sideways after improvement last month and is closer to global trough than global peak.

Can you articulate further what's driving your world view? Specifically, gold since that trade seems to ride on the belief that the ranks of the fearful will continue to grow.

One of these summers I'm going to get out of academia, get in the trenches and see how macro forecasting is done in the real world. I feel I have a lot to learn from practitioners.

Blue Horshoe loves Anacott Steel.

One of these summers I'm going to get out of academia, get in the trenches and see how macro forecasting is done in the real world. I feel I have a lot to learn from practitioners.

First, find a goat and a nice, sharp entrail-extraction knife......

Blue Horshoe loves Anacott Steel.
Indeed. We're all just one trade away from humility. Sums up your quote, and this thread, for me.

Sure wish Jim Cramer would have that trade.

Kramer is just a few less advertisers away from humility.

Seriously. I mean all the news has been positive, all the numbers have be good, yet if you turn on Fox News you'd think the end of the world was near.

But the Mayans!

Wait for it.

But stand clear.

Actually, you're going to be making a whole lot less money because you're telling everyone to short stocks, and so the profit margin will diminish as everyone's trying to jump on this train.

Smart investors don't reveal their secrets and the reasons for them, especially with a given timeframe.

Or they tell people to do A and do B instead. :lol:

So we had a peak of 13,021.51 and can reasonably expect to sell and wait till things get down to 10,400 or so and reevaluate.
The lowest close since this thread was started was today and it is still above the peak.

Sure wish Jim Cramer would have that trade.

Kramer is just a few less advertisers away from humility.

So much Cramer hate.. I love the guy. :p

And he does know what he's talking about.

So much Cramer hate.. I love the guy. :p

And he does know what he's talking about.


Yeah, he knows how to advise people to break the law. :p

The economy faces pretty significant headwinds.
- Fallout from Greece (financial/wealth effects?)
- Oil prices rising both on summer demand and Iranian supply concerns
- Government spending from ARRA continues to wind down

Still, I think outright recession is unlikely.

I think the fiscal drag could be what's less then anticipated in the 2nd half.

ehhhh, i don't think buying stocks is a rational response to hyper-inflation. just sayin'

My short fat fingers got burned a little bit but I pulled them away from the fire for a bit.

Things are really out of control and most people don't see it, its not priced in, I am certain of a hard summer. Scary for everyone. Hope I am way wrong.

Hope I am way wrong.
So far, so good.

So much Cramer hate.. I love the guy. :p

And he does know what he's talking about.
Cramer is certainly entertaining. OTOH, one could make a fortune by Costanza'ing him. If you did the opposite of what he recommended, starting in 2007, you'd be a rich man right now.

- Fallout from Greece (financial/wealth effects?)

- Fallout from Portugal when they start clamoring for the same deal as Greece. :p

... and that's just the first domino to fall.

My general reason for being a Bear though is that its too risky to be growing at "stall speed". Sooner or later, this Titanic FINDS it's iceberg. By that time, the details will be trivial and pointless as a great sage once said.

- Fallout from Portugal when they start clamoring for the same deal as Greece. :p

... and that's just the first domino to fall.

My general reason for being a Bear though is that its too risky to be growing at "stall speed". Sooner or later, this Titanic FINDS it's iceberg. By that time, the details will be trivial and pointless as a great sage once said.

Actually I am thinking this is going to center on Spain this year as Spanish debt costs moved sharply higher over the last month. Spain is in terrible shape with unemployment nearing 25% and essentially in a depression and the debt load is so much more in real dollars.

We are just in a lull as the market forces gather round the next weak link. If you feed a bear he will come back.

Japan is borrowing more that half its annual spending. They are trying to double their national sales tax. Total debt is almost the size of the US with an economy half the size.

Debt would exceed 600% of GDP in 25 years. Wanna buy some yen denominated debt?

If you want to think about the economic sinkhole we are in, consider this, housing prices are still falling. We are years and years into this mess and frankly, the economy isn't growing till the housing mess begins to heal. But only recently has some of the problems been cleared to allow the foreclosure process to once again speed up.

Housing prices are at a ten year low, unemployment spiked higher than expected and is just now showing minimal signs of not being at the edge of hopelessness, stock prices are totally inflated by loose monetary policy, and inflation is inflation is growing faster than the economy and THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP IT FROM DOING SO, and the Fed is about to start buying bonds again because now for the first time, because the EU pressure bled off a little, US treasuries are having to offer a little risk premium.

People now have a built in risk aversion to home ownership which in and of itself might prolong this by a decade or more.

Manufactoring isn't going to provide the number of jobs we need to get growing anytime soon. And regulatory crap is stiffling energy and lots of other stuff.

So we need housing jobs and we ain't got em, in part because of the maze of laws and regulations and government interference which has made it a longer process to go broke and lose a home than to build and sell one. And that is just crazy.

If you want to think about the economic sinkhole we are in, consider this, housing prices are still falling. We are years and years into this mess and frankly, the economy isn't growing till the housing mess begins to heal. But only recently has some of the problems been cleared to allow the foreclosure process to once again speed up.

Housing prices are at a ten year low, unemployment spiked higher than expected and is just now showing minimal signs of not being at the edge of hopelessness, stock prices are totally inflated by loose monetary policy, and inflation is inflation is growing faster than the economy and THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP IT FROM DOING SO, and the Fed is about to start buying bonds again because now for the first time, because the EU pressure bled off a little, US treasuries are having to offer a little risk premium.

People now have a built in risk aversion to home ownership which in and of itself might prolong this by a decade or more.

Manufactoring isn't going to provide the number of jobs we need to get growing anytime soon. And regulatory crap is stiffling energy and lots of other stuff.

So we need housing jobs and we ain't got em, in part because of the maze of laws and regulations and government interference which has made it a longer process to go broke and lose a home than to build and sell one. And that is just crazy.


So now you know the price of having a conservative economic policy. Considering that conservatism is the cause of all of this, why are you arguing that to do more of what caused the problem is the solution to the problem?

It's almost commical. But really, the yearning for a recession purely out of partisan motivation is rather sad.

So we had a peak of 13,021.51

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)-DJI
13,212.04

We are all having a lot more fun now, with you pointing out that I miscalled the top, than we are going to be having this summer wondering if I miscalled the bottom.

So far, your top is pretty close to the bottom. Hopefully, it will be a fun summer.

Anyway, I will concede that the upcoming quarter or two will likely not top the one just ended:

For the quarter, the Dow posted an 8 percent gain and the S&P a 12 percent gain, the best for those indexes in 14 years. The gain was 19 percent for the Nasdaq, its best since 1991.
http://news.yahoo.com/stocks-rise-extending-best-start-since-1998-155523200.html

In all seriousness, the market level is largely influenced by Fed actions. Or I should say inflated. What Ben does next is a big key. Its a matter of the dope dealer turning off the spigot in which case we are going to see a big correction.

Bernanke and the Congress has built a wicked trap and we are all caught in it.

We have never really had a recovery. Its been smoke and mirrors.

If you see smoke in that mirror, perhaps it is a result of getting burned by shorting?

In all seriousness, the market level is largely influenced by Fed actions. Or I should say inflated. What Ben does next is a big key. Its a matter of the dope dealer turning off the spigot in which case we are going to see a big correction.

Bernanke and the Congress has built a wicked trap and we are all caught in it.

We have never really had a recovery. Its been smoke and mirrors.

Broken clock, twice a day, &c.


I don’t care if my wishes never come true, I just want to believe
Even if one crumbles, I’ll just pray another

Everybody got to report a nice quarter to investors etc. Now you will see unsuspended disbelief in action.

Everybody got to report a nice quarter to investors etc. Now you will see unsuspended disbelief in action.

Just how long have you been predicting impending financial doom in the last two years?

Everybody got to report a nice quarter to investors etc. Now you will see unsuspended disbelief in action.
Not everybody had a nice quarter. I heard the financials for the shorts were less than stellar. :lol:

Just how long have you been predicting impending financial doom in the last two years?
Brilliant thing is if you keep predicting it eventually it will happen and you can brag about your foresight :lol:

Not a very good March jobs report, guys. :mischief:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/employment-summary-and-discussion.html

We're supposed to be closing back in on the historical trend, not lapsing back into divergence. And this only gets to the US situation. The OECD as a whole are in terrible straits.

I have seen nothing so far to alter my expections, unfortunately.

I am unsure as to whether and when the Fed will jump back in and of course this is something everyone is going to be watching insofar as equities. But in the broader context there is a more fundamental riddle:

How is it possible to get a real recovery until the housing market turns up with a pulse?

And more elusive is exactly what a post-industrial society will be in economic terms?

Housing is an issue. So is low wages. Low wages is in fact the most important issue. All else flows from that. So that argues for a looser monetary policy. It doesn't look like that is going to happen because of an excess of conservatism in policy. Still, the only factor that's really negative in the near future is oil prices. Which the government cannot really influence, because the factors driving it are mostly international. Some relief could be achieved by slapping down Wall St. But that would require legislation that has no chance in a Republican dominated Congress.

Obviously loose monetary policy was one of the foundational causes of the economic mess we are in. Just as obviously we are trapped therefore in an economy that is significantly artificial, phony, and unsustainable....that unholy fraction of our common commerce that is only propped up by borrowed money and financial trickery.

No doubt that increasing this chicanery would buy more GDP and likewise inch us further toward oblivion. No doubt as well that to reduce the morphine drip would cause the addict pain or to cut it off suddenly risks death of the patient.

The real doubt is do we as a civilization have the character to restrain ourselves? Can we gradually and relentlessly reduce our reliance on this insidiously evil practice such that our real economy can recover?

The broad swathe of the public is being destroyed by burgeoning government, its insatiable thirst for power and the narcotic of free ponies.

And yet some still clamor for more. Free. Ponies.

Obviously loose monetary policy was one of the foundational causes of the economic mess we are in. Just as obviously we are trapped therefore in an economy that is significantly artificial, phony, and unsustainable....that unholy fraction of our common commerce that is only propped up by borrowed money and financial trickery.

Ugh. Read the entire money thread before posting on this forum anymore, please. (http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=447402)

Obviously we need to repair the finance, housing, labor, and industrial sectors.

That was easy.

Ugh. Read the entire money thread before posting on this forum anymore, please. (http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=447402)

I understand money, do you understand pyschology? Economics isn't about numbers sir, economics is human behavior.

You didn't read the thread, did you? :shake:

You didn't read the thread, did you? :shake:

You are incapable of thinking for yourself, aren't you?

You must get a grip on yourself and face the possibility that the things you have been taught are all wrong.

You are incapable of thinking for yourself, aren't you?

You must get a grip on yourself and face the possibility that the things you have been taught are all wrong.

The same can be said about your views.

Ain't it funny how that works?

Obviously loose monetary policy was one of the foundational causes of the economic mess we are in. Just as obviously we are trapped therefore in an economy that is significantly artificial, phony, and unsustainable....that unholy fraction of our common commerce that is only propped up by borrowed money and financial trickery.

No doubt that increasing this chicanery would buy more GDP and likewise inch us further toward oblivion. No doubt as well that to reduce the morphine drip would cause the addict pain or to cut it off suddenly risks death of the patient.

The real doubt is do we as a civilization have the character to restrain ourselves? Can we gradually and relentlessly reduce our reliance on this insidiously evil practice such that our real economy can recover?

The broad swathe of the public is being destroyed by burgeoning government, its insatiable thirst for power and the narcotic of free ponies.

And yet some still clamor for more. Free. Ponies.


Actually the sources of the bubblefuel were international free capital flows and the Bush "free ponies" tax cuts. Monetary policy was mostly irrelevant to the housing bubble. Also the weakness of labor wage gains made for too much money in the capital markets.

The primary governmental contribution to the housing bubble and subsequent financial collapse was deregulation that allowed the free market to cause the problems.

You are incapable of thinking for yourself, aren't you?

You must get a grip on yourself and face the possibility that the things you have been taught are all wrong.

"Thinking for oneself" =/= "EVERYONE ELSE IS WRONG THE HOUSE IS BURNING DOWN AND THE UNIVERSE WITH IT HELP ME CHRIST"

You are incapable of thinking for yourself, aren't you?

You must get a grip on yourself and face the possibility that the things you have been taught are all wrong.
How many margin calls does it take for some people to learn that lesson?:rolleyes:

The thing about economics is that its not at all about numbers.

Here is the first line from an article on Bloomberg:

"Things are unraveling in Europe at a startling pace."

Its all about human behavior. Pyschology.

And here is the word of the day: instagram

Market is moving lower for a bit.

And just like clockwork, the DOW is trading up a bit today. Can you pm me a market prediction each morning, Coops?

Low volume melt-up. Is that sufficient?

Low volume melt-up. Is that sufficient?

Sufficient for what? Low volume is a good sign.

We get lectured for not understanding what money is. Mocked after a few days when we've made a prediction that coves a year.

Well, we might be wrong.

But you should try to actually look at things as they really are. Paper currency has a perfect record, all of it has eventually become worthless. Companies go out of business or are swallowed by predators. Bondholders always lose out as sovereign countries go bankrupt, again and again.

Each generation scoffs at these historic facts and some escape it, if they live hard and die young.

Whenever a global economic disruption occurs, or merely a regional one, we see similar things. Protests, uprisings, freedom movements. These are all economic events. Green revolution, the Tea Party, the Arab Spring, and OWS. Global tensions. Sanctions, weapons tests, military exercises. Electoral madness. The Eurozone madness. This is all part of a predictable cycle that has existed since records have been kept.

And it came to pass at the end of two full years, that Pharaoh dreamed: and, behold, he stood by the river. And, behold, there came up out of the river seven well favoured kine and fatfleshed; and they fed in a meadow.

And, behold, seven other kine came up after them out of the river, ill favoured and leanfleshed; and stood by the other kine upon the brink of the river. And the ill favoured and leanfleshed kine did eat up the seven well favoured and fat kine. So Pharaoh awoke.

And, so we also will wake up sooner or later. The lean years are upon us.

Kyle Smith might be the new Joseph.

God bless him.

Or the new Moses - leading the shorts around in the wilderness for 40 years before getting to the promised land of profitable trading.

No, you misunderstand.

You get mocked because your writings are more like ravings.

If everything is so predictable PREDICT something specific! If it's as simple to see as you claim, go ahead and open my eyes.

It won't take much because I know practically nothing about global economics and finance and such.

I'm giving you a chance to both prove yourself and write onto my blank slate. Will you?

:)

Golly. I am seriously impressed. Trouble is I don't have time to examine all the back threads. Or indeed all of this one. So please excuse me if I speak out of turn.

@MrCooper fear nothing, sir, except fear itself.

Forget about the financial situation.

Invest in the human capital you find around you.

HTH

(I too have often felt I've been losing my mind.)

Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Says Spain Is Worse Off Than It Was Before The LTRO

While more and more analysts are beginning to agree that the effects of the European Central Bank's two three-year long-term refinancing operations have been fleeting, Ray Dalio and Bridgewater Associates have gone a step farther.

The fund argues in a recent note to investors that Spain is even worse off than it was before the ECB announced its two LTROs in December.

Dalio argues that the tenuous circle of fragile Spanish banks providing funding for the Spanish government which in turn supports the troubled banks is swiftly eroding, if not vanished already:

We summarize some key points

Spanish banks have no desire to purchase more Spanish government debt.

Foreign banks continue to sell Spanish sovereign bonds.

The LTROs may have briefly brought down Spanish borrowing costs, but they did not translate into a thaw in interbank lending. Further, another LTRO would have "muted" effect, particularly since the last two were so recent.

The severity of these problems has left Spain in far more dire straits than before, even worse than it was before the LTRO. Dalio and his team believe that funding gaps will soon force Spain, the EU, and/or the ECB to take extraordinary measures to save the country and its financial system from economic disaster.

But policy action will be complicated:

Dalio and his team believe that since the burden is being shifted to the public sector and domestic banks, we will be less likely to see the kind of private sector debt restructuring used in Greece.

They also predict that EU leaders could soon tire of the slow progress of Spanish bank mergers meant to clean up Cajas' balance sheets.

Dalio believes that EU policymakers remain committed to ill-fated attempt to "save almost everyone" by using under-capitalized bailout funds like the European Financial Stability Facility.

But they will also have to act in a much more of a hurry than they previously believed, given Spain's predicament. This will show the inadequacy of currently budgeted resources to deal with the problem, and could pain EU leaders' abilities to deal with crisis problems in a negative light.

Ultimately, Dalio thinks, trying to save Europe without restructurings will prove to costly, and EU leaders will have to accept that more restructurings will be necessary.


Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-16/markets/31347589_1_eu-leaders-spanish-banks-european-central-bank#ixzz1sh7BwK2B

Ray Dalio manages the largest hedge fund currently in existence world wide.

OT update

Okay, I have crunched the numbers and read the tea leaves and can offer a forecast.

We shall see negative growth during the second and third quarters of 2012. As usual there will be forward looking and lagging indicators. We can expect a huge wail of denial from the political and media establishments but this will be followed by some serious anger across the board when the implications are realized.

I suspect that equities will be somewhat more slow to adjust due to stubborn insistence over the soundness of operations and due to what is becoming a religious dependence on Ben's Helo but we are going to test 10,000 by the fall of the year.

It will be bad and perhaps catastrophic. So we had a peak of 13,021.51 and can reasonably expect to sell and wait till things get down to 10,400 or so and reevaluate.

Gold looks good to get over 2,000 late this summer. But get it in hand not in paper.

Good luck everybody.

Well it looks like I misinterpreted the speed of decline but Spain is tottering, growth IS slowing, factor orders have plummeted and new job creation is slowing.

I certainly hope my prediction is all wrong rather than just a little off in timing but at this point I am standing by it.

Did you ever post your crunched numbers?

Short sellers are crunchy when you have them for lunch.

OT update



Well it looks like I misinterpreted the speed of decline but Spain is tottering, growth IS slowing, factor orders have plummeted and new job creation is slowing.

I certainly hope my prediction is all wrong rather than just a little off in timing but at this point I am standing by it.

You sure the Dow will get that bad? I agree that 10K is a floor for psychological reasons, and because it's a nice round number that can trigger buy orders. I also think the Dow is higher than it should be given how bad things are for Main Street.

But I still have a hard time seeing that big a decline. A lot of the storm clouds are already factored into expectations, so barring an unexpected disaster, I don't see the Dow flirting with 10K.

The prophecy says DOW should be 4k. After some delay it seems like Europe finally decided to follow my predictions...

Prophecy is a much better word to use than prediction, unless you would care to post some of your work as well.

You sure the Dow will get that bad? I agree that 10K is a floor for psychological reasons, and because it's a nice round number that can trigger buy orders. I also think the Dow is higher than it should be given how bad things are for Main Street.

But I still have a hard time seeing that big a decline. A lot of the storm clouds are already factored into expectations, so barring an unexpected disaster, I don't see the Dow flirting with 10K.

Yeah, but the unexpected always happens. Bibi turns up with a new supermajority and Jamie Dimon admits being "stupid".

What if JPM's loss is 20 billion instead of 2 and expands to the other big bank counterparties? What if Israel strikes and Obama refuses to cooperate, things go bad and tankers are actually sunk?

Is all that factored in?

What if the coming French-Germany standoff blocks the Spanish bailout? Will Brussels actually be able to cope with the exit of Greece?

What if David Stockman is right and we do stand at the entrance to a universal asset price devaluation?

No, I am not sure that the Dow will get that bad. This year. I am not worried about the market. If the market drops to 10K I would barely blink. Much more is at stake.

I admit that I am afraid and am therefore fair game for mocking....but

"So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself -- nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance."

So spake FDR in 1933 but do events bear out that those in fear were either unreasoning or unjustified? I think not in the light of the years of depression and world strife that lay ahead.

Markets can only operate efficently if conditions are such that clear signals on price can be transmitted to all corners. The actions of governments and central banks, both leading up to the 2008 pre-event and in the time since has so distorted and clouded the global ecconomy that nobody anywhere knows what anything is worth anywhere until some government signals something somewhere. This will not end well.

We are almost certainly in the approach to the greatest, most encompassing orgy of wealth destruction that has ever occured in the history of humanity.

Alternately you can chose to live free of fear in the socialist fantasy of Free Ponies and Magic Beans.

Alternately you can chose to live free of fear in the socialist fantasy of Free Ponies and Magic Beans.
I live free of fear in the certainy that my portfolio can take a hit, but is structured not to takea hit bigger than I can sustain. I live free of fear in that I have a service I can sell in whatever means of exchange exists. I live free of fear in the certainty that there will always be short sellers that are easily fleeced.

I live free of fear in the certainy that my portfolio can take a hit, but is structured not to takea hit bigger than I can sustain. I live free of fear in that I have a service I can sell in whatever means of exchange exists. I live free of fear in the certainty that there will always be short sellers that are easily fleeced.

Good for you. What can go wrong?

Good for you. What can go wrong?
I could catch what you have.

Ignore this post.

ehhhh, i don't think buying stocks is a rational response to hyper-inflation. just sayin'

Dividend stocks. If I was worried about hyperinflation I'd want to own pieces of productive corporations that aren't going anywhere.


Smart investors don't reveal their secrets and the reasons for them, especially with a given timeframe.

Actually they do. It's not a zero sum game--it's a bit like the prisoner's dilemma. Investors share a lot, because the mutual sharing makes all of them more successful. Sure, there are clever defectors who make a killing, but the winning strategy isn't so sneaky.

Smart investors don't reveal their secrets and the reasons for them, especially with a given timeframe.

why? if you buy first and then convince others to buy more, you profit from the further rise in price of the asset you were betting on.

Prophecy is a much better word to use than prediction, unless you would care to post some of your work as well.
I would've used the words "wet dreams", but you're more polite than me.

Markets climb a wall of worry. Think about this...since 1970 we've seen peak to trough declines that have averaged 14.5% per year on the S&P 500. The S&P ended up 25 of those 32 years.

Why U.S. Economy is Heading Back Into Recession

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/05/why-u-s-economy-is-heading-back-into-recession/

Dividend stocks. If I was worried about hyperinflation I'd want to own pieces of productive corporations that aren't going anywhere.

That's good advice, but if I were worried hyperinflation, I hope y'all would disabuse me of my craziness :mischief: I mean, worry about double-dip recession? Sure. Hyperinflation? In what universe? And don't say Zimbabwe 'cause we ain't there.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/senators-to-unveil-the-ex-patriot-act-to-respond-to-facebooks-saverins-tax-scheme/


The senators will call Saverin’s move an “outrage” and will outline their plan to re-impose taxes on expatriates like Saverin even after they flee the United States and take up residence in a foreign country. Their proposal would also impose a mandatory 30 percent tax on the capital gains of anybody who renounces their U.S. citizenship.

The plan would bar individuals like Saverin from ever reentering the United States again.

Here we have another escalation in liberal financial repression. I hope you folks realize how closely we are tracking the line of the great depression. Economics is not a mathmatical science, it is in the realm of mass pyschology.

Any sensible person with anywhere from two dollars to two billion dollars in their pocket understands that they are under attack and will act accordingly. All over the globe.

This is the very reason that things will only get worse until we see widespread governmental collapse.

If you look at the period leading up to the two great world wars, you can see how the processes worked over decades and its clear that we are living on the surface of a speeding bullet so to speak. We can't get off any more than those who lived back then could. In the end, splat.

The remarkable thing then and now, that it is the most educated, sophisticated, and honored of our kind that are leading us blindly into oblivion. They just can't see it.

The market downturn over the past weeks does not represent the adjustment I alluded to in my initial post. The band is just warming up.

Ironically, it is the removal of financial repression which is the leading cause of financial crises. And the much harsher financial repression of the post war era had better economic conditions all around. :goodjob:

Did you cash in when the DOW reached below 10,400?

Its a bloodbath tonight. Scary day coming.

Wake me up when QE3 is announced.

more reserves piling up at banks will do the economy a lot of good...

http://yottapoint.typepad.com/blog/charts/Required_Excess_Reserves_Dec3_2011_FRED.bmp

Its a bloodbath tonight. Scary day coming.
Down half a percent isn't that scary.

Down half a percent isn't that scary.

It was three times not-as-scarier a few days ago (at least the S&P was down around 1.5%, didn't check the DOW but I assume the same).

http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=MarketCommentary&newsletterid=1651&menugroup=Home&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

It says a lot that the market isn't moving up on the day of the Facebook rollout.

Ironically, it is the removal of financial repression which is the leading cause of financial crises. And the much harsher financial repression of the post war era had better economic conditions all around. :goodjob:

The Golden Age of the American economy ended right about the time the government abandoned Keynesian economics, in the 1970s. They tried something else, it failed, they abandoned it. In the 1990s, we boomed based largely on credit. Right at the worst moment, when the bill should have come due, the US Gov't/World decided to deregulate the financial industry in order to sustain continued growth. Now...that pretty much brings us to up to date.

I agree that deregulation was bad, but it wasn't the beginning.

The Golden Age of the American economy ended right about the time the government abandoned Keynesian economics, in the 1970s. They tried something else, it failed, they abandoned it. In the 1990s, we boomed based largely on credit. Right at the worst moment, when the bill should have come due, the US Gov't/World decided to deregulate the financial industry in order to sustain continued growth. Now...that pretty much brings us to up to date.

I agree that deregulation was bad, but it wasn't the beginning.


Deregulation, the fall of the Keynesian orthodoxy in political economics in the US, the rise of Monetarism, and then the rise of Supply Side Economics and neoliberalism all came about in the later part of the 70s and really took root in the 80s.

http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=MarketCommentary&newsletterid=1651&menugroup=Home&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

It says a lot that the market isn't moving up on the day of the Facebook rollout.
Yeah, that maybe some lessons were learned from the dotcom era.

There are a lot of reasons to expect the market to resurface next week and float slighly up for maybe a month or so.....but I dunno. I think we still are looking at a lot of track beneath us.

It looks like the Asian markets have calmed down. Should be a better week.

It looks like the Asian markets have calmed down. Should be a better week.

No no don't say that! Now it's going to be a terrible week :(

No no don't say that! Now it's going to be a terrible week :(

The market is going to want to believe that it has priced in a Greek exit and this was reinforced by the G8 declarations that government will "mix growth policies with cuts".

Now everyone understand that is gibberish but the markets like the promise of more magic money airdrops. So you can reasonably expect price levels to hold or advance until the next round of EU crisis. Greece votes again in June.

We have been through this cycle in Europe for, well, it seems forever. Another factor is the Iran talks. It is seen as possible that a deal will be struck and that is a positive for the markets. Of course we all know the Iran is playing the West for suckers and that they are certainly going to continue their march towards a nuclear arsenal.

But that doesn't matter. Due to the effects of modern fiscal and monetary policy, markets now operate on perception more so than on reality and will continue to do so until the catastrophe comes.

It is even possible that my medium term expectations will not be met. You can always buy GDP and buy bonds to prop up stock prices. That works every time until it doesn't.

Real sustainable economic growth is impossible in the West under current policies.

Another thing that folks need to understand is that Europe's debt woes will provide a temporary boost to US outlook as we are going to benefit from capital flight to our percieved safe haven. This is of course simply supeinflating our own debt bubble, which will change the world when it pops, but the process could take a very long time to play out.

Just as many Greeks and also those in Spain and Italy have proved very smart to protect their wealth we should all be working now to find ways to shelter our holdings from the US government to the greatest practical extent. In the malstrom the government will confiscate all sorts of assets, property, and businesses. Having a plan to get out of the country altogether would be an excellant idea.

Real sustainable economic growth is impossible in the West under current policies.


Exactly. Conservatism as we know it must end before the economy can grow properly again. :mischief:

A capital flight to the US would just lower interest rates and spur more business here. Sounds real to me :p

In the long-run, I think I am closer to being in MisterCooper's corner than any of the rest of you. I don't quite share his line of thought, but the bottom line seems to be that we will continue business as usual until we destroy the climate, destroy the planet, and use up every last resource available. An every-man-for-himself way of life cannot and will not continue forever. It is against human nature, believe it or not.

Ever wonder what a bubble looks like?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/bonds-list-by-country

With all of this debt and more being created every millisecond the price has dropped for most countries. Some by astounding amounts.

This in large part is by design of the world's central banks. Wealth is debt and debt is wealth. Sooner or later a lot of both are going to dissipate in the night.

Ever wonder what a bubble looks like?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/bonds-list-by-country

With all of this debt and more being created every millisecond the price has dropped for most countries. Some by astounding amounts.

This in large part is by design of the world's central banks. Wealth is debt and debt is wealth. Sooner or later a lot of both are going to dissipate in the night.

Those are yields or "rates," not prices.

Rates have fallen.

Meaning most government debt is more expensive to own, not cheaper.

Yes, of course, I am looking at it the other way round. Government is paying a lesser price for the borrowed money.

The central banks continue to manipulate so as to force all hands to scramble to find a return. Heck, we are beyond that now and just looking for the means of wealth preservation but its not going to be possible.

Yes, of course, I am looking at it the other way round. Government is paying a lesser price for the borrowed money.

The central banks continue to manipulate so as to force all hands to scramble to find a return. Heck, we are beyond that now and just looking for the means of wealth preservation but its not going to be possible.

lol. "I misinterpreted my data as much as it is feasibly possible to do so, but my argument is still water tight."

lol. "I misinterpreted my data as much as it is feasibly possible to do so, but my argument is still water tight."

The difference between a liberal and a conservative can be summed up neatly by pointing out that liberals believe facts should be elastic and conservatives consider them optional.

If you are comfortable living in a world in which people pay the for the privilege of loaning the government money then I suggest you have a lot of like minded children, fast.

I woke up and was surprised by the fact that Asia was all to hell last night and that the market is off here as well. Searching for a reason I see possibly that Greece may be experiencing an early birth.

I woke up and was surprised by the fact that Asia was all to hell last night and that the market is off here as well. Searching for a reason I see possibly that Greece may be experiencing an early birth.

If you really understand what's going on as you claim, then I'd expect you to not be surprised... shouldn't you have seen it coming?

This thread is terrible. It's just MisterCooper talking nonsense. He's like the Patcher of stocks!

This thread is terrible. It's just MisterCooper talking nonsense. He's like the Patcher of stocks!

What percentage of the thread did you read before you posted?

There was a documentary I remember some ago... I think it was 3 or 4 mouth, cannot remember the name... that I was watching on the BBC on a certain issue that may have contributed greatly to the current recession. That of the deregulation of business, a policy which was championed by the likes of Ronald Reagan. This has continued by all US presidents since him, including sad to say the current one in some areas. Without regulations companies can end doing stuff of such irresponsible ways... as to crack the foundations of growth.

Here in Britain (which is now classed as in a double dip recession) we had issues greatly from the banks, with the Royal Bank of Scotland being special in the cause of our economic current climate which was a case of a man manned depression. With companies adopting the “smart” tactic of firing workers to safe, which in turn will mean less spending from those fired workers which in turn means less spending which in turn means a decreasing economy which in turn convinces the companies to continue their firing policy for more savings which in turn... well you get the picture.

The occurrences of Greece and the elections in France demonstrate the frustration of the people in light of the policies to try and tackle the recession. My own observations have leaded me to make the following conclusion: it is not the axe that going to save the economy. There are some cuts but the not zealous amount of cuts that are occurring in places like the UK thanks to the Tory lead (I am not saying conciliation since the Lib Dems are yes men) government. The lacks of checks on barrowing had help cause additional economic problems. Combine with an increase in tax for the poor to allow a decrease in tax for the rich in the UK will ensure Britain has continued economic problems. Thank you Osborn! :mad:

I confess that I do not have to the answer to the problems. I alas I am not an economist. However I have noted areas which the government of Britain in particular seem to know less economics than an amateur. What we need though is to avoid making the people not be able to spend much. If we do not gain the route of aiding supply the economy... then I hope we all have our rain coats on for the continued storm.

Here (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13798000) is a FAQ by the BBC on the matter of Greece that may be of interests.

Good interesting post. Cutting public spending will not be a positive factor in getting the economy moving. Raising taxes will not either. Neither will do it and yet it seems to some to be the only choices.

The fact is that once the economy is shot it takes years to get back on track. People who have lost jobs and or homes and have wrecked credit can't rebound overnight just because of a tweak in public policy. The damage was well and truely done and whole families by the hundreds of thousands have been ruined and I am speaking globally. China may very well see this pain as well.

On your point, one of primary causes of this mess was repeal of laws that prevented deposit banks from running gambling, er, investment houses. How is it that we haven't fixed this, it is unbelievable. And of course it is often my own party and fellow conservatives that defend these financial behemoths. It is quite simple, break them up and reinstate rules to separate the two basic functions. Make them smalller and eliminate moral hazard.

Otherwise a future crisis is as certain as the coming of morning.

This is one of the few cases in which I fall on the side of regulation. In general, reducing regulations and red tape is one of the few things government can do to help the economy get going.

Think of the water hose. If you have one that is one half inch in diameter and one that is an inch, you would get twice the flow from the latter? No. It is much more than double. The issue with regulation is the friction that raises costs and stiffles business creation and growth. We must have less of it or things will not improve.

Of course that will mean tradeoffs. There will be costs. But the benefits are real too. At the end of the day we have to operate in an evironment where accidents like the oil spill in the Gulf can happen. It is a necessary risk. Especially when one realizes that there is a global competition and those who cling to restrictive rules will simply suffer longer and harder than the rest.

And I speak here of regulations all along the spectrum. From the business licensing that is a barrier to someone starting a barber shop to the regulations that govern labor issues. We need more than anything else to go on a repeal spree.

If the Federal government simply disappeared overnight. Poof. Gone. Sure this would cause some practical issues but the states can work those out. Essentially it would create the greatest economic boom in modern times. Most people just don't understand.

I spent a career working in business that was heavily regulated. The Environment Review Processes alone costs untold sums in both units of money and time. Never once in nearly twenty years did I see one instance in which a ERR actually reveal an issue that wasn't apparent out of the box. I don't expect people who don't have first hand experience with things like this to understand. I know that it is shrugged away as right wing propaganda.

But it isn't. In fact, as Obama noted, shovel ready wasn't shovel ready. In large part because of the vast (worldwide) regulatory maze that chokes economic activity. If this problem slowed and made the stimulus less effective, what effect does this beast have on everyday private economic activity?

The fact of the matter is that legislators continually write more regulations and more red tape wranglers are placed on the public payroll. Its is a one way operation. Nothing is ever repealed.

If this process is not stopped then it can only have one end. All economic activity will slow then cease completely. It will not be possible to profitably produce, buy or sell anything anywhere at anytime.

If you doubt this you should look at the new businesses that have emerged over the last few decades. They are those that exploited gaps in the laws. Like sprouts of grass that poke out of the cracks in the sidewalk.

The internet and all those who utilize it is the prime example. The unregulated frontier. A great economic engine.

But here comes the whack a mole bureaucracy. The shackles will be rattling.

Look at the facebook IPO. The regulators are all over it. Because some people lost money. That isn't fair. Must regulate. Must dictate equality of outcome. Merit bad. Liberty and freedom bad. Must be stamped out. Must ensure order. Must ensure carbon based life units cower in fear. Economy must be regulated. Must ensure fairness. Must punish. Must maintain order.

Look at the facebook IPO. The regulators are all over it. Because some people lost money. That isn't fair. Must regulate. Must dictate equality of outcome. Merit bad. Liberty and freedom bad. Must be stamped out. Must ensure order. Must ensure carbon based life units cower in fear. Economy must be regulated. Must ensure fairness. Must punish. Must maintain order.

Excellent! A prediction!! This is what I want to see more of here - testable predictions.

So, if I understand you correctly, your position is that because some people lost money in the FB IPO the government is going to use this as an excuse to come in and squelch freedom and liberty and punish those who merit success, an excuse to set up regulations that will dictate equality of outcome, ensuring that nobody loses money. Is that right?

So is your position that the existing IPO regulations are just fine the way they are and no further rules are needed?

So whatever is going on right now with the existing regulations is more than enough regulation already - everyone in the market would be better off with less regulations (does this refer to the absolute number of rules? The actual number of regulatory staff? Could you explain what you mean by 'less regulation?')

Lastly, if it becomes known that there was insider trading, short selling manipulation, or anything else involved with the FB IPO that is just fine with you, right? Because more regulations - that would make it harder to do those sorts of things - aren't a good idea, right?


Think of the water hose. If you have one that is one half inch in diameter and one that is an inch, you would get twice the flow from the latter? No. It is much more than double. The issue with regulation is the friction that raises costs and stiffles business creation and growth. We must have less of it or things will not improve.
I think your analogy is a little off. The diameter of the hose determines the total flow possible at any given time. So it's more like the size of a market. Rules and regulations are the equipment that ensures the safety and integrity of the hose itself, they're the flow control valves, check valves, and other equipment that keeps the flow as close as possible to the optimal volume. If there's too much pressure, a check valve vents in a controlled fashion so the walls of the hose don't rupture. In the case of the mortgage CDO mess, there weren't check valves. The hose ruptured.

Regulations aren't anything like the diameter of a hose.

One last quibble:
The Environment Review Processes alone costs untold sums in both units of money and time. Never once in nearly twenty years did I see one instance in which a ERR actually reveal an issue that wasn't apparent out of the box.I'm sure you know this is wrong - it's not at all difficult to quantify the costs of environmental reviews. There are whole industries that do exactly this. It's not a black hole of accounting that just sucks out funds that disappear into the earth, never to be seen again. I hope you were just being hyperbolic. And perhaps one the reasons you never saw an issue that wasn't known from the start is because the process works. Just because your house didn't burn down last night doesn't mean we don't need smoke detectors and a fire department any more. Or is that another case of government quashing liberty?

http://static7.businessinsider.com/image/4f5605d36bb3f7fa2400000a/marc-faber.jpg

In an interview on CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report, Marc Faber of the "Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report" stated that a global recession in the final quarter of this year or any time next year is certain.

“I think we could have a global recession either in Q4 or early 2013. That’s a distinct possibility."

When asked what were the odds, Faber replied, "100%."

http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-global-recession-100-2012-5

What percentage of the thread did you read before you posted?
Any percentage would yield the same results as I don't think you have been right yet in this thread.

Excellent! A prediction!! This is what I want to see more of here - testable predictions.

So, if I understand you correctly, your position is that because some people lost money in the FB IPO the government is going to use this as an excuse to come in and squelch freedom and liberty and punish those who merit success, an excuse to set up regulations that will dictate equality of outcome, ensuring that nobody loses money. Is that right?

So is your position that the existing IPO regulations are just fine the way they are and no further rules are needed?

So whatever is going on right now with the existing regulations is more than enough regulation already - everyone in the market would be better off with less regulations (does this refer to the absolute number of rules? The actual number of regulatory staff? Could you explain what you mean by 'less regulation?')

Lastly, if it becomes known that there was insider trading, short selling manipulation, or anything else involved with the FB IPO that is just fine with you, right? Because more regulations - that would make it harder to do those sorts of things - aren't a good idea, right?



I think your analogy is a little off. The diameter of the hose determines the total flow possible at any given time. So it's more like the size of a market. Rules and regulations are the equipment that ensures the safety and integrity of the hose itself, they're the flow control valves, check valves, and other equipment that keeps the flow as close as possible to the optimal volume. If there's too much pressure, a check valve vents in a controlled fashion so the walls of the hose don't rupture. In the case of the mortgage CDO mess, there weren't check valves. The hose ruptured.

Regulations aren't anything like the diameter of a hose.

One last quibble:
I'm sure you know this is wrong - it's not at all difficult to quantify the costs of environmental reviews. There are whole industries that do exactly this. It's not a black hole of accounting that just sucks out funds that disappear into the earth, never to be seen again. I hope you were just being hyperbolic. And perhaps one the reasons you never saw an issue that wasn't known from the start is because the process works. Just because your house didn't burn down last night doesn't mean we don't need smoke detectors and a fire department any more. Or is that another case of government quashing liberty?
Anyone who bet heavy on FB wasn't paying attention...
I don't think the government needs to step in.

However, at the same time... there were trading issues, due to volume... which should have been expected and dealt with properly. In this sense, the government demanding certain standards is acceptable.

In the end, I understand the banks lost out, mainly, because they had to honor trades at X amount even if the apparent lag put them at Y amount... but, the banks are also investing... and if they weren't aware that this could be a problem, I think that is their problem.

I did notice all the insiders got out ASAP... which was totally predictable.

Any percentage would yield the same results as I don't think you have been right yet in this thread.

Okay. I hope that I was wrong about it all.

But I'm not. We are in the midst of a new reordering of all things. Predictions are a bit silly. All you can really do is map out a range of possible outcomes and weigh them.

Human beings have a tendency to look past unpleasantness. Ignore it, deny it and adopt instead pleasant fictions.

Today will be a wake up call. I wonder what Benny is thinking as he sprints to his helopad. Does he have secret doubts? A little lip quivering?

People should be thinking of finding a way to put a little something away where governments can't find it because they will seize a lot from many in the years to come.

If the Federal government simply disappeared overnight. Poof. Gone. Sure this would cause some practical issues but the states can work those out. Essentially it would create the greatest economic boom in modern times. Most people just don't understand.

How this myth manages to persist is beyond me. It really is the ultimate libertarian wet dream.

Human beings have a tendency to look past unpleasantness. Ignore it, deny it and adopt instead pleasant fictions.


But this isn't true at all. Studies of human psychology routinely demonstrate that people are risk-averse. Rather than being errantly optimistic, we are, on the whole, naturaly pessimistic about our future economic prospects.

Okay. I hope that I was wrong about it all.

But I'm not. We are in the midst of a new reordering of all things. Predictions are a bit silly. All you can really do is map out a range of possible outcomes and weigh them.

Human beings have a tendency to look past unpleasantness. Ignore it, deny it and adopt instead pleasant fictions.

Today will be a wake up call. I wonder what Benny is thinking as he sprints to his helopad. Does he have secret doubts? A little lip quivering?

People should be thinking of finding a way to put a little something away where governments can't find it because they will seize a lot from many in the years to come.



Nothing is being reordered. We'll stick with Reagomics until it drives the West into a ditch so deep there's no driving back out again. All the pressure is for ever more incompetent and conservative policies.

But this isn't true at all. Studies of human psychology routinely demonstrate that people are risk-averse. Rather than being errantly optimistic, we are, on the whole, naturaly pessimistic about our future economic prospects.

When are you ever going to learn Peter, that studies, conducted by academics, are unerringly and willfully wrong.

When reality stops having a fact-based bias.

Today will be a wake up call.
I woke up today to see the DOW down a couple of percentage points, but nothing worth skipping my nap over.

I woke up today to see the DOW down a couple of percentage points, but nothing worth skipping my nap over.

I question, did you actually.

Considering my stash of American eagles, I am dismayed. I can get more dollars for them but who wants dollars? I could buy equities, but who wants equities? I could get treasury bonds, but you couldn't gift me treasury bonds. Useless lumps of metal right now. There is nothing of value to swap it for. Nothing that I won't be able to get a lot more of later.

I'll take a nap.

I have a constant flow of money coming in, so I stash some away in a bit of everything for my old age and spend the rest on enjoying the ride while I can.

I question, did you actually.

Considering my stash of American eagles, I am dismayed. I can get more dollars for them but who wants dollars? I could buy equities, but who wants equities? I could get treasury bonds, but you couldn't gift me treasury bonds. Useless lumps of metal right now. There is nothing of value to swap it for. Nothing that I won't be able to get a lot more of later.

I'll take a nap.

I do. Productive companies will continue to make things and make money.

When are you ever going to learn Peter, that studies, conducted by academics, are unerringly and willfully wrong.

Yes sir, Mr. Jennings! (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populist_Party_%28United_States%29) We don't need those dirty New York elitists ruining our way of life. The farmers will rise up and reclaim the rightful, American way, from intellectuals and industrialists. :mischief:

You don't want to buy equities now. You can get a much better deal later with far less risk.

Based on your track record of predictions, I am now considering buying equities.

Argentina is denying a midnight devaluation. China's landing is not going to be soft. The World Bank says that global leaders are not prepared for the impending catastrophe. There is talk now that Spain might eject itself from the EU as its best option. India is gone into the tank.

Oil and gasoline prices are plumeting. Think about that. Good? Not by a damn sight.

German bunds are at the zero bound. US treasuries are headed there. I am not going out on a limb by stating my belief that we are in a global panic right here right now in terms of capital flight.

Globally, banks are illiquid. We could literally see global finance seize up in a near instant, something like 72 hours and we won't know its happening for the first 36.

Behind the scenes there is mad desperation over just keeping ATMs full of cash. We have a different system now than existed in the 30s. Banks had the overnight period, people had to go to a bank. Now, everyone has access to an ATM close by, 24 hours a day.

When it comes it will come that way, a sudden unanticipated rush to the ATMs as people want to feel the security of cash in hand. With 24hour global connectivity, a twitterstorm bank run flash mob will sweep the globe. This scenario haunts Bernagethlaguard. It ought to.

Step bank and look at it. There are only a few problems. Most every country and every state are broke. Most every company and every individual are leveraged to the hilt. Most of that debt is being papered over by made up money. Add to that the fact that we have massive global underconsumption due to the fallout from the 2008 event. Massive unemployment. Governments are working as hard as possible to prevent the creative destruction that has to occur to heal this mess. Growth therefore is dead.

Thats not much, eh?

The destruction is inevitable. The can they are kicking is filled with all of Pandora's woes.

This is not an economic problem. It is a moral problem. We shall soon learn that it is a wee bit easier to banish morality than it will be to bear the consequences of sin.

So... buy equities?

Based on your track record of predictions, I am now considering buying equities.

Lets see, I predicted we would see the market test a bottom of 10K by the fall of the year. Working off the end of October that would see the market shed 15.41 points per day from that point. We are down 12.36 points per day as of closing today.

So that rate would put a bottom at about 10,600. I said we should re-evaluate at 10,400.

This is just a snapshot but its not moving the other way.

There will be a point at which to buy equities. This is not the time. imo. This is all about capital preservation now, and if you don't have any, get guns.

Lets see, I predicted we would see the market test a bottom of 10K by the fall of the year. Working off the end of October that would see the market shed 15.41 points per day from that point. We are down 12.36 points per day as of closing today.

So that rate would put a bottom at about 10,600. I said we should re-evaluate at 10,400.

This is just a snapshot but its not moving the other way.

There will be a point at which to buy equities. This is not the time. imo. This is all about capital preservation now, and if you don't have any, get guns.
Get some dividend stocks if you want to preserve capital.

lol moral problem

Argentina is denying a midnight devaluation. China's landing is not going to be soft. The World Bank says that global leaders are not prepared for the impending catastrophe. There is talk now that Spain might eject itself from the EU as its best option. India is gone into the tank.

Oil and gasoline prices are plumeting. Think about that. Good? Not by a damn sight.

German bunds are at the zero bound. US treasuries are headed there. I am not going out on a limb by stating my belief that we are in a global panic right here right now in terms of capital flight.

Globally, banks are illiquid. We could literally see global finance seize up in a near instant, something like 72 hours and we won't know its happening for the first 36.

Behind the scenes there is mad desperation over just keeping ATMs full of cash. We have a different system now than existed in the 30s. Banks had the overnight period, people had to go to a bank. Now, everyone has access to an ATM close by, 24 hours a day.

When it comes it will come that way, a sudden unanticipated rush to the ATMs as people want to feel the security of cash in hand. With 24hour global connectivity, a twitterstorm bank run flash mob will sweep the globe. This scenario haunts Bernagethlaguard. It ought to.

Step bank and look at it. There are only a few problems. Most every country and every state are broke. Most every company and every individual are leveraged to the hilt. Most of that debt is being papered over by made up money. Add to that the fact that we have massive global underconsumption due to the fallout from the 2008 event. Massive unemployment. Governments are working as hard as possible to prevent the creative destruction that has to occur to heal this mess. Growth therefore is dead.

Thats not much, eh?

The destruction is inevitable. The can they are kicking is filled with all of Pandora's woes.

This is not an economic problem. It is a moral problem. We shall soon learn that it is a wee bit easier to banish morality than it will be to bear the consequences of sin.



Assuming you are right, and you are right about the consequences, what is the moral of the story?

Never elect a conservative.

Cutlass, give it a rest. This is a pretty serious situation and it is beyond partisan politics. I'll stipulate that all parties and both wings of the political spectrum shares the responsibility for this mess.

At the moment I pretty much feel like something has to give in a major way very soon. Spain is at the brink and it seems certain that Merkel and Germany must give or else the currency union is going to crack up. Very soon.

The endless cycle of half measures have played out, not just in Europe but around the world.

Does anyone here think Merkel will yield short of a Lehman type liquidity crisis? I think it unlikely. With pressure from Obama now, I suspect she will dig in her heels most resolutely.

The Spanish government wants the union to bailout its banks but refuses to accept the responsibility itself.

Denial, meet denial.

I'll give it a rest when you do. The core of the problem here is that you fail to recognize that the more the government(s) pursue policies that you want, the worse the results for global capitalism are. And so you keep blaming the wrong policies for the outcomes.

Right now the biggest short term problems facing the US are that governments are either not hiring, or cutting back jobs. The private sector is not going to create jobs under these circumstances. And Europe is not pursuing policies to end their problems. The only ways out of this are for governments to act to employ people, or to crash and burn and wait out a private sector reboot. And that could take a few years, because the private sector does not inherently by itself stabilize the economy. Just the opposite, actually, the private sector is inherently unstable. Always has been.

So you have a choice of maximum harm to all involved people and countries, and that is for the governments to hunker down and wait on the private sector. Or you have the minimum harm for all people, and that is for the governments to get off their asses and put people to work.

I'll give it a rest when you do. The core of the problem here is that you fail to recognize that the more the government(s) pursue policies that you want, the worse the results for global capitalism are. And so you keep blaming the wrong policies for the outcomes.

Right now the biggest short term problems facing the US are that governments are either not hiring, or cutting back jobs. The private sector is not going to create jobs under these circumstances. And Europe is not pursuing policies to end their problems. The only ways out of this are for governments to act to employ people, or to crash and burn and wait out a private sector reboot. And that could take a few years, because the private sector does not inherently by itself stabilize the economy. Just the opposite, actually, the private sector is inherently unstable. Always has been.

So you have a choice of maximum harm to all involved people and countries, and that is for the governments to hunker down and wait on the private sector. Or you have the minimum harm for all people, and that is for the governments to get off their asses and put people to work.

Well, you have everything backwards as usual. We will have to remain at dagger points.

I do agree with you this far, a private sector reboot will take years. I believe that is the best possible outcome and you do not.

Says the guy who makes an art form of getting things backwards....

wait, that means you guys are back to back daggers out against the world. I like that :p

What percentage of the thread did you read before you posted?

All of it. You have no idea what you're going on about.

I don't know what I am talking about?

Spain recieves assurances of $125 billion in loans directly to the government to shore up its banks. They announce this money comes with no strings but now we learn that it does. Spain hasn't received the money yet, it doesn't exist btw, and estimates are their banks will need $375 billion.

If this money is found Italy will be responsible for a quarter of it, but Italy is in no way capable of supporting itself much less supporting the bankrupt Spanish banking system.

But I am the one who is delusional. Okay.

Money continues to pour out of distressed euro zone countries putting immense strain on the system which has, among other things, seen Bundesbank claims on the ECB rise to 650 billion euros. So you see that Germany is trapped with the fish in this net.

We are about to see the economic equivalent of a fission meltdown.

China is taking steps to clear the area btw. Not that anyone will be spared.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2012/06/us-commerce-secretary-accused-in-hit-and-run-crashes-found-unconcious.html

U.S. Secretary of Commerce John Bryson in a mysterious situation. What did he know, who was he going to tell, and why didn't they kill him outright?

Tune in next quarter, same bat time, same bat channel for answers.

I don't know what I am talking about?

Spain recieves assurances of $125 billion in loans directly to the government to shore up its banks. They announce this money comes with no strings but now we learn that it does. Spain hasn't received the money yet, it doesn't exist btw, and estimates are their banks will need $375 billion.

If this money is found Italy will be responsible for a quarter of it, but Italy is in no way capable of supporting itself much less supporting the bankrupt Spanish banking system.

But I am the one who is delusional. Okay.

Money continues to pour out of distressed euro zone countries putting immense strain on the system which has, among other things, seen Bundesbank claims on the ECB rise to 650 billion euros. So you see that Germany is trapped with the fish in this net.

We are about to see the economic equivalent of a fission meltdown.

China is taking steps to clear the area btw. Not that anyone will be spared.



See that's what you get when you have a central bank that doesn't print enough money.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, has warned that the world risks a triple crisis of declining incomes, environmental damage and social unrest unless countries adopt a more sustainable approach to economic growth.

Ahead of the Rio+20 Earth summit later this month, she said the rich should restrain their demands for higher incomes while there are still 200 million people worldwide looking for a job and poverty is on the rise.

Great Ceasar's Ghost!

Having a woman this dumb running the IMF is a guarantor of world catastrophe. How does she not know that the demand of the rich for higher incomes is the one and only factor that ever has and ever can sustain economic growth?

I suspect that the only way out for humanity is to ban education of those unable to profit from it, the unfortunate practice which, it seems clear now, is the source of our troubles.

Do you honestly believe that the only people who desire higher incomes are the ones who already have more wealth than they need? :dubious:

Everyone wants a higher income.

And I particularly enjoyed that little sexist fart you dropped in there. Subtle ;)

Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, has warned that the world risks a triple crisis of declining incomes, environmental damage and social unrest unless countries adopt a more sustainable approach to economic growth.

Ahead of the Rio+20 Earth summit later this month, she said the rich should restrain their demands for higher incomes while there are still 200 million people worldwide looking for a job and poverty is on the rise.

Great Ceasar's Ghost!

Having a woman this dumb running the IMF is a guarantor of world catastrophe. How does she not know that the demand of the rich for higher incomes is the one and only factor that ever has and ever can sustain economic growth?

I suspect that the only way out for humanity is to ban education of those unable to profit from it, the unfortunate practice which, it seems clear now, is the source of our troubles.



Seems she knows economics. Better than you at any rate.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2012/06/us-commerce-secretary-accused-in-hit-and-run-crashes-found-unconcious.html

U.S. Secretary of Commerce John Bryson in a mysterious situation. What did he know, who was he going to tell, and why didn't they kill him outright?Or it could have been a simple seizure.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/commerce-secretary-accused-in-car-crashes/2012/06/11/gJQAD0OSUV_story_1.html?wp_login_redirect=0

Bryson was driving alone when his Lexus ran into two other cars shortly after 5 p.m. Pacific time Saturday — hitting one of the vehicles twice. Nobody in the other cars was seriously hurt. After the third crash, Bryson was found unconscious behind the wheel. He was treated overnight at a Los Angeles area hospital.

On Monday, Commerce Department spokeswoman Jennifer Friedman said the secretary had suffered a seizure — his first — at some point during the incident. She said toxicology tests confirmed that neither alcohol nor drugs played a role in the crashes. A spokesman from the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department declined to comment on the tests.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, has warned that the world risks a triple crisis of declining incomes, environmental damage and social unrest unless countries adopt a more sustainable approach to economic growth.

Ahead of the Rio+20 Earth summit later this month, she said the rich should restrain their demands for higher incomes while there are still 200 million people worldwide looking for a job and poverty is on the rise.

Great Ceasar's Ghost!

Having a woman this dumb running the IMF is a guarantor of world catastrophe. How does she not know that the demand of the rich for higher incomes is the one and only factor that ever has and ever can sustain economic growth?

I suspect that the only way out for humanity is to ban education of those unable to profit from it, the unfortunate practice which, it seems clear now, is the source of our troubles.
Make up your mind, is there an impending crisis or not? You can't cherry pick it to fit your political views.

She's absolutely right, of course. All lasting economic growth in human history has been in the last 200 years. All sustained economic growth in the last 200 years has come from resource extraction, innovation, and growth of bottom-up consumer markets. All of it is moving us toward environmental catastrophe. Wealth divides are a causal agent in revolution and unrest. Pretty straightfoward. It's nice to have an economist who also understands her history.

Perhaps we should see one correct prediction before going off on how dumb others are.

Having a woman this dumb running the IMF is a guarantor of world catastrophe. How does she not know that the demand of the rich for higher incomes is the one and only factor that ever has and ever can sustain economic growth?


If only Jesus had not been so dumb and included this in the bible,

And Jesus said that the Rich man shall pass into heaven and the poor will have no camels and a needle into their eyes. Blessed are the Rich for ye shall inherit the earth, or something like that.

http://cdn.svcs.c2.uclick.com/c2/4ee507a09703012f2fe300163e41dd5b?width=750.0

How does she not know that the demand of the rich for higher incomes is the one and only factor that ever has and ever can sustain economic growth?
Because it's blatantly false and she's educated enough to realise this?

Dow closes quarter at 12,880.09, down a bit for the quarter, but flunking any sort of test of 10,000.

Dow closes quarter at 12,880.09, down a bit for the quarter, but flunking any sort of test of 10,000.

Oh, did I say this quarter? I meant next quarter.

NEXT QUARTER WILL BE THE END OF TIMES!

Well, summer is less than ten days old. I will be wrong or I will be right. All of the recent market activity is of the Last Dance type as far as I can see.

If Merkel is indeed caving in and all of Europe is going the magic money route it certainly has the possibility to change the timeline. But the reality of the situation is clear, the current euphoria scarely takes into account the fact that all of the banks are broke.

It is sort of like a spontanous party at your neighbor's house, "What's the occasion?", you ask and with delirium they respond happily that their house is ablaze before betraying their delight at having discovered a fire station some miles away.

Hooray!

The more money is poured into this hole the more awful the correction will be. I may not be right on the timing but cannot be wrong on the eventual consequence.

In order to restore equilibium there must be an epic destruction of wealth (debt) and reordering of all things.

The wealthy are trapped with no safe and profitable place to put their money. Yields are vapor and the need to find them is and will be used by central bankers to prop up market prices and reduce sovereign debt costs until conditions for the great inflation are acheived. Because that is the only option left to deal with the debt. It is either default or inflate it away.

Infation is the most cruel of taxes. But even inflation brings a boom beforehand.

So we have and will see upswings due to both injections of money and also to come boomlets bourne of inflation. Those who chose to ignore the underlying fundamentals will be able to find much to like and much to use as evidence of milk and honey.

Hope springs eternal but denial is everpresent.

My primary deployment into physical assets remains the same, rental residential property and gold. Take no paper. Stay with something you can hang your hat on.

If you can qualify for a home loan you should buy them for they are essentially free as long as you are getting long term fixed rates. Inflation will dissipate your payments and make them vanish, just as happened in the seventies. So buy a primary and rentals, put at least 75% into it and 20% in gold. Obviously people with large holdings cannot do this as you have to hold paper of some sort, if that is the case for you wait for this market to collapse and buy for long term holding.

Times will not end till Jesus comes.

Until then, expect violence in all markets.

I will be wrong or I will be right.
So there's a 50% chance for either of them!

Times will not end till Jesus comes.
Nah, even that didn't work out the first time they said it.

Dow closes quarter at 12,880.09, down a bit for the quarter, but flunking any sort of test of 10,000.

Tomorrow! Tomorrow! The markets crash tomorrow,
It's always a day away!

Oh, did I say this quarter? I meant next quarter.

NEXT QUARTER WILL BE THE END OF TIMES!

Tomorrow! Tomorrow! The markets crash tomorrow,
It's always a day away!

This goes both ways. According to the US Federal Reserve's projections in the last 4 years, a robust 4% growth recovery has always been just around the corner:

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/guest/2012/LR-fed-revisions-gdptable-062112.png

This goes both ways. According to the US Federal Reserve's projections in the last 4 years, a robust 4% growth recovery has always been just around the corner:

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/guest/2012/LR-fed-revisions-gdptable-062112.png

True. But you shouldn't assume my riffing on MisterCooper's unsubstantiated claims of economic doom is an indicator of whether I believe the Fed's projections.

Times will not end till Jesus comes.

Until then, expect violence in all markets.
Jesus was pretty violent in the marketplace the first time around. Got a prediction on which quarter he returns?

Jesus was pretty violent in the marketplace the first time around. Got a prediction on which quarter he returns?

People never but actual money up against their crazy beliefs - deep down they know it's a losing bet.

No one ever claimed James Randi's $1,000,000 prize for provable reapeatable ESP demonstration, yet every day people claim to have these powers.

Same thing with Jesus.

Manufacturing activity shrunk in June for the first time in three years as new orders dried up, according to a key report released Monday that points to a deteriorating U.S. economy.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 49.7% from 53.5% in May, in the first reading below the 50% line indicating expansion or contraction since July 2009

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/manufacturing-activity-shrinks-in-june-ism-says-2012-07-02

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_SWITZERLAND_GOD_PARTICLE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-02-09-27-46

The end of times will be a begining. I am looking forward to it.

Scientists working at the world's biggest atom smasher plan to announce Wednesday that they have gathered enough evidence to show that the long-sought "God particle" answering fundamental questions about the universe almost certainly does exist.

Get guns, gold, groceries and the gospel.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index dropped to 49.7% in June from 53.5% in May, signaling that the manufacturing sector is contracting for the first time since mid-2009.
The decline in the ISM was led by the biggest one-month drop in new orders since October 2001, just after the Twin Towers were destroyed. The new-orders index now stands at 47.8%, a level that’s extremely rare outside of recessions.

the factory sector reacts quickly to changing economic circumstances and can serve as a sort of canary in the coal mine for the rest of the economy. Cutbacks in manufacturing inevitably lead to reductions in the services industries.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/recession-now-much-more-likely-2012-07-02

I'm not a catastrophist, but I would recommend:
1. a water butt
2. plenty of dried food stuffs
3. some wire netting (to protect windows)
4. making friends with your neighbours and as many people as you can
5. learning how to cook on an open fire
6. matches
7. a library of interesting books on survival skills

The steep drop in gas prices was a clear harbinger of a downturn but you've heard little about it. The only good news has been some signs that the housing market might be bouncing off the floor but its too soon to tell if that was a clear signal or a false echo. When government action distorts the markets it is hard to tell.

It was certain that the foreclosure processes had to clear and now that the major obstacles have been removed we will see the foundation blocks of the housing recovery laid. But it will be a long slow trudge.

If not for the huge debt overhang we could be looking at a sustained period of robust growth. Because economists continue to encourage reckless spending and borrowing by the political establishment, we will instead suffer catastrophe first.

'Strewth!
Politicians seem set on reckless cutbacks, causing a decline in demand and therefore a major recession leading to a slump and depression likely to make the 20's and 30's seem like fun. Look out WW3. It's our only hope.

'Strewth!
Politicians seem set on reckless cutbacks, causing a decline in demand and therefore a major recession leading to a slump and depression likely to make the 20's and 30's seem like fun. Look out WW3. It's our only hope.

The idea that WW2 brought us out of the depression is a myth. The reality was that the necessity of war brought unity and that unity allowed the US to adopt a command economy. This led to a vast increase in productive capacity that allowed America to dominate the post WW2 world in which many other nations had suffered such a deep loss in manpower and plant that they simply could not supply the needs and demand that existed globally.

If your statement was correct, which it was not, the vast budgetary cuts America made post WW2 would have led to a steep contraction. Economists then predicted just that, along with massive unemployment. It did not materialize.

You sould look it up. The government spending cuts were huge, not illusory, as this so called "austerity", in which cutting spending actually means talking about cutting the growth of spending.

In sum, you just don't know what you are talking about. None of the Keynesians do. Its all stupidity.

We have the worst of all situations. The nation is divided neatly in two which makes neither a free or command economy feasible, and the politicans are being told to spend endlessly, which both meets their personal interests and is making things worse by the second.

If we get the war you are hoping for, and it is likely, perhaps as much as a seventh of the world's population can reasonably be expected to die and for most liberty will cease. I do not desire this economic prescription.

The end of times will be a begining. I am looking forward to it.

Scientists working at the world's biggest atom smasher plan to announce Wednesday that they have gathered enough evidence to show that the long-sought "God particle" answering fundamental questions about the universe almost certainly does exist.
Why is this a bad thing? I'm genuinely curious about the logic that lead you to this conclusion.

If we get the war you are hoping for, and it is likely, perhaps as much as a seventh of the world's population can reasonably be expected to die and for most liberty will cease. I do not desire this economic prescription.
I just knew it was a mistake responding to this thread. I have learnt my lesson.

But just for the record I am certainly not hoping for a war.

And I must repeat: I am not a catastrophist.

I apologise for my misguided attempt at humour.

The reality was that the necessity of war brought unity and that unity allowed the US to adopt a command economy.
Yeah no. Even during WWI when the US Government nationalized the railroads under the USRA, the level of government involvement in the economy did not reach the level one might find in actual 'command economies', such as Kruschev-era USSR, let alone Stalin or Brezhnev-era USSR. While price fixing did occur in the US along with rationing, that was a necesary response to the immense production shocks the country faced. (Nevermind the fact th Office of Price Administration had been setting prices for items such as bread since the New Deal.)
If your statement was correct, which it was not, the vast budgetary cuts America made post WW2 would have led to a steep contraction. Economists then predicted just that, along with massive unemployment. It did not materialize.
Again, not quite. While spending was curtailed drastically, the US government still was spending vast amounts of money to head off another depression prompted by a massive number of unemployed soldiers. (This had happened after WWI.) To avoid that, the US government funded several programs, the most famous of which is the GI Bill. In addition to that, the US government gave out substantian tax credits and subsidies to companies building houses in the suburbs to try and take pressure off the overcrowded urban core. That, along with continued post-war spending and projects (such as the Interstate highways) held unemployment down and stimulated one of the longest periods of growth in American history.

New quarter, same old story.

Again, not quite. While spending was curtailed drastically, the US government still was spending vast amounts of money to head off another depression prompted by a massive number of unemployed soldiers. (This had happened after WWI.) To avoid that, the US government funded several programs, the most famous of which is the GI Bill. In addition to that, the US government gave out substantian tax credits and subsidies to companies building houses in the suburbs to try and take pressure off the overcrowded urban core. That, along with continued post-war spending and projects (such as the Interstate highways) held unemployment down and stimulated one of the longest periods of growth in American history.

Not to mention there were recessions as the result of demobilization (and the Spanish flu). Look at the recessions in 1918 and 1920, as well as one in 1945. Associated with both post-war recessions is a significant decline in real GDP (caused by the reduction in military spending).

Stuff and nonsense. Federal outlays in the FOUR years after 1945 were less than the sum total of the last two war years (44-45). Thats more than a 50% reduction in Federal spending and the economy did just fine.

The spendmore narrative is just not true.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_SWITZERLAND_GOD_PARTICLE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-02-09-27-46

The end of times will be a begining. I am looking forward to it.

Scientists working at the world's biggest atom smasher plan to announce Wednesday that they have gathered enough evidence to show that the long-sought "God particle" answering fundamental questions about the universe almost certainly does exist.

Please don't post off topic - it's confusing.

Or, please explain why your post is relevant.

Why is this a bad thing? I'm genuinely curious about the logic that lead you to this conclusion.

Its not a bad thing. Its very interesting that scientific researchers searching for the God particle are about to declare its existence based not on proof of it but by faith.

The spendmore narrative is just not true.
It is indeed not true but which narrative in your opinion is true for modern USA?

Its not a bad thing. Its very interesting that scientific researchers searching for the God particle are about to declare its existence based not on proof of it but by faith.

"they have gathered enough evidence" is not faith, buddy.

Stuff and nonsense. Federal outlays in the FOUR years after 1945 were less than the sum total of the last two war years (44-45). Thats more than a 50% reduction in Federal spending and the economy did just fine.

The spendmore narrative is just not true.
The area where the spending was focused shifted. When the intent of the spending is to provide a stimulatory effect, targeting consumer areas yields a far higher return on investment than targeting defense related areas. Remember: the massive federal spending during the war years was, oddly enough, focused on defense spending to the complete disregard for civil society except the basics. When the war ended the spending was drastically cut-as it to be expected-but civil society recieved a massive increase in federal stimulus compared to the war years. (I think it was even greater than during the height of the New Deal, but I'm not sure.)
If anything, you are arguing that increased spending in civil areas provides substantial stimulatory effects.

Ajidica, that is just fine. Nice claims. Obviously it is possible to borrow and spend xx percent and yield a +xx GDP. You are just buying a number. In many cases where spending results in a positive increase in GDP you have a net negative effect on the economy.

And your argument is bulletproof, as Obama has shown, when spending fails to yield expected results you just say "it was worse than it seemed", and "it would be far worse without the stimulus. Its is quite a con to construct a policy that can produce no data that can be used for refutation.

Nor do you or any other want to acknowledge the medium to long term effects of spending (borrowing), nor acknowledge debt in any meaningful way. All policy has both benefits and costs but magic Keynesian policy has no costs, as defined by those who advocate it.

All we hear about are the costs of not doing it. One might quickly deduce that a policy with no downsides (except if you don't adopt it) that involves spending unprecented amounts of other peoples money is an obvious fraud, if you hestitate, noting that if there is no money available to borrow the advocates demand it be created out of thin air, should end any hesitation by rational players.

Government adds value to the economy but only in accordance to the law of diminishing returns. That threshold can be quite low. The US Federal government suffocates the American people, taxes should be cut slightly, spending cut moderately, programs reformed accordingly, and regulations nuked. Freedom should be returned to the people and authority to the States. Following such a program over ten years would doubtless result in ressurection of the middle class and the restoration of prosperity and upward mobility.

But we do it not. Continuing on this path is certain destruction.

Yeah, as long as we are getting more conservative in economic policy, we are in fact choosing to continue on a path towards certain destruction.

"they have gathered enough evidence" is not faith, buddy.

Physicists say they have all but proven that the "God particle" exists.

They have a footprint and a shadow

they have nearly confirmed the primary plank of a theory

strong indications of the production and decay of Higgs bosons

in some sense we have reached the mountaintop

Really?

But, I accept that we have veered slightly off topic. So I will leave off the subject of science and faith here.

Ajidica, that is just fine. Nice claims. Obviously it is possible to borrow and spend xx percent and yield a +xx GDP. You are just buying a number. In many cases where spending results in a positive increase in GDP you have a net negative effect on the economy.
Care to give an example that is applicable to a first-world country? Obviously in some Banana Republic an increase in GDP could mask serious economic instability, but for first world countries that isn't very likely.

And your argument is bulletproof, as Obama has shown, when spending fails to yield expected results you just say "it was worse than it seemed", and "it would be far worse without the stimulus. Its is quite a con to construct a policy that can produce no data that can be used for refutation.
Economics is an imperfect science, but certain things are known. We know that the stimulus did help to stop the freefall of the economy. Outside of some fringe groups, economists agree that when money is pumped into the economy, it improves. (Their disagreement is based more on long term affects of this, but they agree more-or-less on the short term impacts.)
Unfortunately, I do not know enough about economics to demonstrate that with actual numbers, so if you are interested in how economists can demonstrate the economy would have been worse off without the stimulus, I would reccomend sending Integral a PM.

Nor do you or any other want to acknowledge the medium to long term effects of spending (borrowing), nor acknowledge debt in any meaningful way.
From a theoretical standpoint, national debt is more or less irrelevant. Debt can grow at whatever percentage of GDP you want as GDP maintains constant growth with essentialy no problems.
However, that is not advisable because as we all know, GDP growth often changes.
In the short run, debt really is not an issue. American debt is still one of the safest investments one can make, because if we are actually unable to repay our debt, the global economy is already long gone.
(Interestingly, there was actually some worries in the 90's that we would repay all of our debt and the Fed would lose its primary tool to influence the money supply.)

Government adds value to the economy but only in accordance to the law of diminishing returns.
Care to give an example?
The US Federal government suffocates the American people
Interestingly, when I attended a business law presentation given by a CEO (forget which company, a midsized Minnesota company) he talked about how the most legal problems and restrictive laws occur not on the federal level, but on the state and local level.

regulations nuked.
I just can't wait to return to the days where companies could literaly poison you and there was no oversight to ensure food cleanliness, or workplace safety, or a whole host of other regulations that are essential to modern society.
Freedom should be returned to the people and authority to the States. Following such a program over ten years would doubtless result in ressurection of the middle class and the restoration of prosperity and upward mobility.
Nice argument. Care to back it up?

But we do it not. Continuing on this path is certain destruction.
And the Soviets said the same thing about the decadent, imperialist, capitalist, west. Forgive me for not taking your predictions of economic doom and gloom seriously.

Physicists say they have all but proven that the "God particle" exists.

They have a footprint and a shadow

they have nearly confirmed the primary plank of a theory

strong indications of the production and decay of Higgs bosons

in some sense we have reached the mountaintop

Really?

Yeah. Really not faith. Faith wouldn't require the concerted effort of a thousand plus scientists and engineers over decades at a cost of billions. All faith needs is a guy claiming to hear the voice of gods and people dumb enough to believe him.

Still has nothing to do with the economic forecast. Really.

And just to be clear, it's really only headline editors who throw around the phrase "god particle". I'm sure that's why you were careful to put it in quotes above.

Government adds value to the economy but only in accordance to the law of diminishing returns. That threshold can be quite low. The US Federal government suffocates the American people, taxes should be cut slightly, spending cut moderately, programs reformed accordingly, and regulations nuked. Freedom should be returned to the people and authority to the States. Following such a program over ten years would doubtless result in ressurection of the middle class and the restoration of prosperity and upward mobility. But we do it not. Continuing on this path is certain destruction.
Well, actually the problem for US is that whatever adopted policy is there are certain milestones which are bound to happen. The first problem is the demise of US dollar as world reserve currency and the second is that the whole idea of expansionist capitalism was based on constant growing of economy and growing standards of living archieved by crude pumping of more energy into this goal. As we have probably reached peak oil it greatly changes the game rules. I am not sure is the combination of world finance crisis and peak oil are perfect storm or former is just the derivative of latter but no steps taken within the framework of official Western economy "science" will be able to deal with this problem successfully.

Its not a bad thing. Its very interesting that scientific researchers searching for the God particle are about to declare its existence based not on proof of it but by faith.
Ignoring your misunderstanding of the word faith and scientific method, why does all of this mean "the end is nigh"?

Science has it's predictions and faith has it's predictions. Unless I am just guessing, scientist get pretty excited when they can prove a prediction. The same would apply to faith. Faith is very excited when it becomes a fact also.

All humans prefer sight over hope.

Science has it's predictions and faith has it's predictions. Unless I am just guessing, scientist get pretty excited when they can prove a prediction. The same would apply to faith. Faith is very excited when it becomes a fact also.

All humans prefer sight over hope.

The problem with this statement is that the same words spoken by different people don't mean the same thing. A scientific hypothesis isn't the same thing as a Biblical prophecy, despite both being labeled predictions.

Physicists say they have all but proven that the "God particle" exists.

They have a footprint and a shadow

they have nearly confirmed the primary plank of a theory

strong indications of the production and decay of Higgs bosons

in some sense we have reached the mountaintop

Really?

Oh, Science, you're so wacky. You think you prove stuff, you have "scientific method", well poo poo. You're nothing but another religion, that's what you are! And I'll prove it with the vague language "scientists" use. That'll show them. :crazyeye:

Or maybe, you know, they don't want to say anything conclusive yet so they can save face if something went wrong. Just considering that other option.

The problem with this statement is that the same words spoken by different people don't mean the same thing. A scientific hypothesis isn't the same thing as a Biblical prophecy, despite both being labeled predictions.

I was not even talking about the Bible. I was talking about every day modern life. Something about those who do not listen to the past seem to repeat it. There are those who concentrate on keeping the past in the past to an extreme, that they forget people just live in the present. One does not have to let the past control them, but there is a small something in trying to avoid the same pitfalls.

Faith is not relying on the past predictions, but it is realizing small everyday hypothesis that do happen and keep a person in a forward motion. I am not saying there are no setbacks and failures and starting a new. It is similiar to science and it has nothing to do with the past. I could point out also that science would be a failure if it only tried to explain the past. Now that might make for some interesting stories, but science is basically just a forward progression.

I was not even talking about the Bible. I was talking about every day modern life. Something about those who do not listen to the past seem to repeat it. There are those who concentrate on keeping the past in the past to an extreme, that they forget people just live in the present. One does not have to let the past control them, but there is a small something in trying to avoid the same pitfalls.

Faith is not relying on the past predictions, but it is realizing small everyday hypothesis that do happen and keep a person in a forward motion. I am not saying there are no setbacks and failures and starting a new. It is similiar to science and it has nothing to do with the past. I could point out also that science would be a failure if it only tried to explain the past. Now that might make for some interesting stories, but science is basically just a forward progression.

Faith will only be similar to science when it rejects ideas that are not supported by evidence, when it starts from observations to arrive at conclusions rather than starting from a conclusion and forcing observations to fit, and when it revises its stance in the light if new observations and evidence.

In other words, when it starts acting like science.

Until the, though, faith is nothing at all like science and only people who have an investment in the former and a misunderstanding of the latter would mistakenly analogize the two.

Science does indeed know much about the past. You're wrong if you think it doesn't. It may not have anything to say about small details like whether or not a tree lost it's leaves on a Thursday or a Friday, but it has not only much more, but much more accurate things to say about the history of the universe, the solar system, the earth, life, humans, and Civilization than all religious writing combined.

Faith has no role to play in understanding the systems in the world around us, whether they be economic, social, physical, biological, chemical, etc.

I was not even talking about the Bible. I was talking about every day modern life. Something about those who do not listen to the past seem to repeat it. There are those who concentrate on keeping the past in the past to an extreme, that they forget people just live in the present. One does not have to let the past control them, but there is a small something in trying to avoid the same pitfalls.

Faith is not relying on the past predictions, but it is realizing small everyday hypothesis that do happen and keep a person in a forward motion. I am not saying there are no setbacks and failures and starting a new. It is similiar to science and it has nothing to do with the past. I could point out also that science would be a failure if it only tried to explain the past. Now that might make for some interesting stories, but science is basically just a forward progression.

You can insert any other common form of prediction in place of the Bible line you want, it doesn't change my point. People commonly use words like prediction, theory, fact, etc. differently than scientists do.

I am having difficulty parsing what your point is out of the second paragraph, likely due to the different language. Scientific theories must be coherent, predictive, and consistent with the known facts (the history).

I realize that economics and religion are pretty much the same thing, but wasn't this thread about the former?

I realize that economics and religion are pretty much the same thing, but wasn't this thread about the former?

The OP derailed his own thread, guess "predicting" recession was getting boring.

You can insert any other common form of prediction in place of the Bible line you want, it doesn't change my point. People commonly use words like prediction, theory, fact, etc. differently than scientists do.

I am having difficulty parsing what your point is out of the second paragraph, likely due to the different language. Scientific theories must be coherent, predictive, and consistent with the known facts (the history).

Let's just say that when ever faith comes up, it is related to the past. Science steps in and proclaims, "We know the past, and can knock faith out of the water." I am just saying, "What is wrong with having both now, going forward and leaving the past behind?" There is plenty of room for both.

Faith will only be similar to science when it rejects ideas that are not supported by evidence, when it starts from observations to arrive at conclusions rather than starting from a conclusion and forcing observations to fit, and when it revises its stance in the light if new observations and evidence.

In other words, when it starts acting like science.

Until the, though, faith is nothing at all like science and only people who have an investment in the former and a misunderstanding of the latter would mistakenly analogize the two.

Science does indeed know much about the past. You're wrong if you think it doesn't. It may not have anything to say about small details like whether or not a tree lost it's leaves on a Thursday or a Friday, but it has not only much more, but much more accurate things to say about the history of the universe, the solar system, the earth, life, humans, and Civilization than all religious writing combined.

Faith has no role to play in understanding the systems in the world around us, whether they be economic, social, physical, biological, chemical, etc.

Relying on science to explain the past is the same as relying on faith to explain the past. Faith does not explain the past, it prepares us for the future. The difference is the past strengthens our faith. Science strengthens the past. Science back then as always is in a state of change. Ever learning and never settling. The more science figures out, the more they seem to "want" to put the past on firmer ground. Why are they so bent on doing so? The past is gone, there is nothing more that can be done about it.

Stuff and nonsense. Federal outlays in the FOUR years after 1945 were less than the sum total of the last two war years (44-45). Thats more than a 50% reduction in Federal spending and the economy did just fine.

The spendmore narrative is just not true.

The economy suffered a serious recession that we didn't climb out of until like '48 or '49. Government spending from about '33 on (though with a big recession in '37 caused by austerity) brought the economy back to equilibrium and the war put an economy above sustainable output, so naturally there was to be a contraction after the war was over (the other alternative would be inflation...) The contraction was not as big as feared at the time but that's because economics as a discipline is inferior to what it is today, which has better predictive power that shows why it made sense.

The US has followed a pretty steady growth trajectory and when it gets out of whack with a recession it usually bounces back to the point that the line should be based on the previous equilibrium. The Great Depression sunk us way below that line, the buildup and subsequent war pushed us above it, and after the post-war recession, we were back on it.

Let's just say that when ever faith comes up, it is related to the past. Science steps in and proclaims, "We know the past, and can knock faith out of the water." I am just saying, "What is wrong with having both now, going forward and leaving the past behind?" There is plenty of room for both.

...what? I'm not sure your characterization of science corresponds to anything scientific. Specific religious claims (i.e. the sun is a chariot wheel and Apollo drives it across the sky) are disproven, but the questions of why, morality, etc. have not been nor ever will be "answered" by science.

What exactly does "knock faith out of the water" even mean in this context?

Relying on science to explain the past is the same as relying on faith to explain the past. Faith does not explain the past, it prepares us for the future. The difference is the past strengthens our faith. Science strengthens the past. Science back then as always is in a state of change. Ever learning and never settling. The more science figures out, the more they seem to "want" to put the past on firmer ground. Why are they so bent on doing so? The past is gone, there is nothing more that can be done about it.

I do not understand why you are assigning temporal aspects to science and faith as you are.

What exactly does "knock faith out of the water" even mean in this context?
I think he means those who still believe "the sun is Apollo's chariot" equivalents are true. Like YECs.

Care to give an example that is applicable to a first-world country? Obviously in some Banana Republic an increase in GDP could mask serious economic instability, but for first world countries that isn't very likely.

One clear example is to borrow money and use it to prop up a failing housing market. It is better to allow the market process to work, destroy the malinvestments and lay the foundation for sustainable growth. The actions of the Obama administration have prolonged the pain and has reduced long term wealth.

Economics is an imperfect science, but certain things are known. We know that the stimulus did help to stop the freefall of the economy. Outside of some fringe groups, economists agree that when money is pumped into the economy, it improves. (Their disagreement is based more on long term affects of this, but they agree more-or-less on the short term impacts.)
Unfortunately, I do not know enough about economics to demonstrate that with actual numbers, so if you are interested in how economists can demonstrate the economy would have been worse off without the stimulus, I would reccomend sending Integral a PM.

You clearly will label me as being on the fringe. I hold that outside of clean, targeted and limited stimulant, used only when the government is not overly indebted, all efforts to distort the economy are harmful in sum. Again, generating positive statistics does not equal improvement of the economy.


From a theoretical standpoint, national debt is more or less irrelevant. Debt can grow at whatever percentage of GDP you want as GDP maintains constant growth with essentialy no problems.
However, that is not advisable because as we all know, GDP growth often changes.
In the short run, debt really is not an issue. American debt is still one of the safest investments one can make, because if we are actually unable to repay our debt, the global economy is already long gone.
(Interestingly, there was actually some worries in the 90's that we would repay all of our debt and the Fed would lose its primary tool to influence the money supply.)

You have just stated the exact problem. History shows nothing more clearly than that politicians/monarchs/soviets etc. have been told by their advisors that they can, though excellant evolving modern methods play fast and loose in the fiscal arena and it has yet to pan out. We don't live in a theoretical world. We live in a world where economists are seens as seers rather than the alchemists that they really are.

Reference if you will the dream of Joseph, the seven fat and lean cows. All western nations will default on their debt. It is only a matter of timing.

Care to give an example?

We are seeing one evolve right now, perhaps the biggest example in history to date. The internet, the development of which was greatly aided by the law and order of the worlds governments. In the future however, the benefits of government's contribution will begin to diminish as regulation begins to take its toll.

Interestingly, when I attended a business law presentation given by a CEO (forget which company, a midsized Minnesota company) he talked about how the most legal problems and restrictive laws occur not on the federal level, but on the state and local level.

From the perspective of a CEO who is working across state and national borders, one system of law is clearly easier to game.

That doesn't mean that small businesses or entrepreneurs have the same outlook. One indirect, but significant, negative effect of an overbearing federal government is the leadership example it sets for the state political order. Humans mimic behavior. Look to California for an example of a state government run amok. Here we see a broke state that has just approved joisting with a high speed windmill even as its cities are entering bankruptcy. Bailouts, they assume, will be available.

I just can't wait to return to the days where companies could literaly poison you and there was no oversight to ensure food cleanliness, or workplace safety, or a whole host of other regulations that are essential to modern society.

For every whole host of government regulations that are essential to modern society, there are 99 whole hosts of regulations that do more harm than good (many support the vast bureaucracies that are in fact nothing but jobs programs that serve as payoffs for political support. The military complex for the right and the domestic superstructure for the left, etc.

We could easily cut the government in half and get the same services, excluding the wealth transfers. By putting those resources back in the hands of the private sector it could not help but spur sustainable growth.

Nice argument. Care to back it up?

Sure, the first government was established by the first caveman that wanted control so that he could have all the food and women he wanted. That defines government. The less of it the more of everything the people get to keep. Its that simple.


And the Soviets said the same thing about the decadent, imperialist, capitalist, west. Forgive me for not taking your predictions of economic doom and gloom seriously.

The Soviets were right but not for the reasons they thought, or hoped. The Islamists are right as well. Moral decadence will bring the West to its knees. It is only a matter of time.

Of course I forgive you for not taking it seriously. I wish you well, but wellwishes won't protect you, nor our society, from the conseqences of our actions.



At the end of the day, we can turn to God for succor and salvation. If we will.

Sure, the first government was established by the first caveman that wanted control so that he could have all the food and women he wanted. That defines government. The less of it the more of everything the people get to keep. Its that simple.
You begin to sound like a communist!

At the end of the day, we can turn to God for succor and salvation. If we will.

Then why don't priests live longer than laiety? This stuff was worked out 300 years ago - turning to God in and of itself is not at all correlated with success in life.

Your conclusion is not supported by the evidence, which leads me to conclude that your other conclusions are equally suspect.

I don't know, we've got a pretty strong record of relatively flat job growth. We've had about 59 million jobs since we hit bottom, during the recession. That's down from 63 million jobs prior to that. There are 85,000 new enrollments for Social Security and only 80,000 new jobs this month. It isn't looking good. This 'recovery' is probably going to take a long time.

...what? I'm not sure your characterization of science corresponds to anything scientific. Specific religious claims (i.e. the sun is a chariot wheel and Apollo drives it across the sky) are disproven, but the questions of why, morality, etc. have not been nor ever will be "answered" by science.

What exactly does "knock faith out of the water" even mean in this context?

I do not understand why you are assigning temporal aspects to science and faith as you are.

Sometimes people misunderstand faith as well as science. I was not assigning temporal aspects to either. I was attempting to expalin how humans use them. Using science to explain what happened in the past makes for good theory and some cool stories, but attempting to predict what happened in the past with science will not give us any more of what actually happened than human imagination will.

I get the point that we no longer need the Bible or any other document from history to be an authority on history. But science is no better at being an authority on the past either. So I said let's forget trying to reconstruct the past and view faith as being just as viable today as science is.

I realize that it is hard for people to divorce faith today from the religion of yesterday. No one wants God to work on an individual basis. Religion does not want that, because it does not unite people like an objective authority. Those who base their beliefs on science, do not want that, because it is subjective and hard to grasp it with scientific reasoning.

If there is a God, that is the only way that he works today. Sometimes there is a larger group that is effected, but large groups are not the key here, because humans tend to be controlling and unless the group submits to some kind of hierarchy, there would just be chaos. Religion is the answer to chaos, but it is not the way to explain God or even the faith God is looking for. Ok that may not apply to every god, but if there was an Abrahamic God, which half the world seems to adhere to, then that faith applies to that God.

Sometimes people misunderstand faith as well as science. I was not assigning temporal aspects to either. I was attempting to expalin how humans use them./s] Using science to explain what happened in the past makes for good theory and some cool stories, but attempting to predict what happened in the past with science will not give us any more of what actually happened than human imagination will.

I get the point that we no longer need the Bible or any other document from history to be an authority on history. But science is no better at being an authority on the past either. [s]So I said let's forget trying to reconstruct the past and view faith as being just as viable today as science is.

I realize that it is hard for people to divorce faith today from the religion of yesterday. No one wants God to work on an individual basis. Religion does not want that, because it does not unite people like an objective authority. Those who base their beliefs on science, do not want that, because it is subjective and hard to grasp it with scientific reasoning.

If there is a God, that is the only way that he works today. Sometimes there is a larger group that is effected, but large groups are not the key here, because humans tend to be controlling and unless the group submits to some kind of hierarchy, there would just be chaos. Religion is the answer to chaos, but it is not the way to explain God or even the faith God is looking for. Ok that may not apply to every god, but if there was an Abrahamic God, which half the world seems to adhere to, then that faith applies to that God.

Okay, you REALLY don't grasp the full extent how much we understand about the past and the constraints we can place on the future. Based on this post, I'd guess that you have, at best, a 6th-grade level understanding of these basic sciences: Chemistry, Physics, Geology, Biology, Astronomy, Archaeology, and, for good measure, Logic (not a science!)

Using scientific techniques we can sometimes understand what happened in the past - and also make falsifiable predictions based on that knowledge. When those predictions are not verified the scientific method requires that the underlying assumptions be refined to yield models that fit the observed data. This is utterly anathema to a faith-based system. You seem to not understand this, even though I have pointed it out in dozens of threads.

Science is so much better at understanding the past than religion is that we have hundreds of higher educational programs dedicated to this subject and NONE OF THEM rely on a religion to establish courses of inquiry. Those that do are marginal and 2nd rate. Why? Because religious doctrine is utterly insignificant as a starting point for serious historical investigation.

At some point you must reach the same conclusion the rest of the rational thinkers have reached for the last 350 years: your magic sky-god mythology has no bearing on the physical world, and his supposed rules only yield earthly horrors and evil.

Most people who have ever lived never believed in him. Most people alive today also don't believe in him. If you still choose to believe in him, then you are assigning yourself to the ranks of the marginal humans who decided to go down with a sinking ship, rather than seek a lifeboat.

Good luck with that.

Feel free to delete instead of change my post. I cannot change who I am, and basically I just ask questions. Or put into words my thoughts. You can call me crazy for not thinking that my faith is anathama to science. I view science and faith on equal terms and both seek out the answers to life. If you think that religion and the Bible view science as anathama, I am sorry. Most people agree with you.

If you think that I cannot separate what scientist say "is the gospel truth" and thus "fixing" what the Bible says, and declaring both to be right, then you can keep guessing as to what I actually hold as true. If you label me, that is your choice. I also understand that does not change who I am.

Okay, you REALLY don't grasp the full extent how much we understand about the past and the constraints we can place on the future. Based on this post, I'd guess that you have, at best, a 6th-grade level understanding of these basic sciences: Chemistry, Physics, Geology, Biology, Astronomy, Archaeology, and, for good measure, Logic (not a science!)

Using scientific techniques we can sometimes understand what happened in the past - and also make falsifiable predictions based on that knowledge. When those predictions are not verified the scientific method requires that the underlying assumptions be refined to yield models that fit the observed data. This is utterly anathema to a faith-based system. You seem to not understand this, even though I have pointed it out in dozens of threads.

Science is so much better at understanding the past than religion is that we have hundreds of higher educational programs dedicated to this subject and NONE OF THEM rely on a religion to establish courses of inquiry. Those that do are marginal and 2nd rate. Why? Because religious doctrine is utterly insignificant as a starting point for serious historical investigation.

At some point you must reach the same conclusion the rest of the rational thinkers have reached for the last 350 years: your magic sky-god mythology has no bearing on the physical world, and his supposed rules only yield earthly horrors and evil.

Most people who have ever lived never believed in him. Most people alive today also don't believe in him. If you still choose to believe in him, then you are assigning yourself to the ranks of the marginal humans who decided to go down with a sinking ship, rather than seek a lifeboat.

Good luck with that.

No. It is ignorance you speak. Get thee behind.

France today is selling short term debt at negative rates which, if not certain, is a pretty good indicator that the entire smash is going down as it is purely irrational and can only be triggered by the most extreme circumstance.

Here is an interesting bit: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/07/09/why_economic_policy_is_paralyzed_114726.html

This lays the cause of the destruction to come on a proud king's lap.

The blunder of the Sixties has had a long afterlife. Economic policy is trapped between weak demand and the fears of too much debt. Yesterday's Keynesians undercut today's Keynesians. "In the long run we are all dead," Keynes said. But others are alive -- and suffer from bad decisions made decades ago.

This above bit from the piece about Kennedy's advisors. I admit I did not recognize the issue until the late 90s, at which point I announced to all the inevitability of the economic calamity. It is difficult to see the big picture when it takes decades to unfold in all its gory.

Each individual has to look to their own soul and then to the physical and spiritual wellbeing of their family and friends.

No. It is ignorance you speak. Get thee behind.

Dude, its the 21st century.

Get that corpse out of your mouth.

The blunder of the Sixties has had a long afterlife. Economic policy is trapped between weak demand and the fears of too much debt. Yesterday's Keynesians undercut today's Keynesians. "In the long run we are all dead," Keynes said. But others are alive -- and suffer from bad decisions made decades ago.

This above bit from the piece about Kennedy's advisors. I admit I did not recognize the issue until the late 90s, at which point I announced to all the inevitability of the economic calamity. It is difficult to see the big picture when it takes decades to unfold in all its gory.

Each individual has to look to their own soul and then to the physical and spiritual wellbeing of their family and friends.



Funny how the 60s, when Keynesians were still listened too, did so much better than any point after the 70s, when no one was listening to Keynesians.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry said Monday his state won't expand Medicaid or set up an insurance exchange, joining a growing number of Republican governors who are rejecting two key parts of President Obama's health care law.

"I will not be party to socializing health care and bankrupting my state in direct contradiction to our Constitution and our founding principles of limited government," Mr. Perry said.

He joins more than half-dozen GOP governors who have already said they won't increase the size of their Medicaid programs to cover Americans up to 133 percent of the poverty level, after the Supreme Court upheld most of the law last month but said states could opt out of the Medicaid expansion.

"I stand proudly with the growing chorus of governors who reject the Obamacare power grab," Mr. Perry said. "Neither a 'state' exchange nor the expansion of Medicaid under this program would result in better 'patient protection' or in more 'affordable care.' They would only make Texas a mere appendage of the federal government when it comes to health care."

I am proud of Governor Perry but I do not expect Texas or any other state to long escape the Free Pony stampede. Bankruptcy looms. We have passed the point of no return in that too many now depend on the government for substenance. It is now mob rule. Only when the people have to face the consequences of their actions will they learn.

Still, Perry has a duty, as do I and all who know the truth, to continue the fight. We must make the last stand of freeman in this the age of secular humanism.

Fight the good fight of faith, lay hold on eternal life, whereunto thou art also called, and hast professed a good profession before many witnesses.


REPORT DEEPENS ECONOMIC GLOOM

http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2012/07/06/june-jobs-report-deepens-economic-gloom/

U.S. employers added a paltry 80,000 jobs in June, capping off an abysmal quarter of employment growth and raising the pressure on the Federal Reserve to once again stave off a double-dip recession.

A financial system addicted to magic money clamors for still another fix, unable to objectively weigh the outcome.