View Full Version : Tax Options and getting to Democracy – Science 1100


TimTheEnchanter
Jun 16, 2003, 08:24 PM
The Domestic Ministry asked for when we can complete research on Democracy. The science ministry tried to assess our situation and layout a few plans that we can follow to complete research on Democracy.

I’ve tried to calculate these plans out as accurately as I can, however, we are dealing with so many interrelated variables, it’s hard to know if I’ve got everything right. There is the celebration growth of Doughnutia and its impact on trade (including corruption), the value of new trade routes created, trying to project the cost of our next tech after invention. The further out in time I try to project, the likelihood of error increases exponentially.

With that in mind I have three possible plans laid out. The first two are designed to learn Democracy going into the 1180 oedo turn so that we can immediately revolt and go into Democracy government without subjecting all our cities to a turn of Anarchy. The difference between the first and second plan is that the first should provide considerable margin for error on achieving democracy in 1180. The second provides slightly more gold for rush buys in the early turns, but cuts things very close for completion of Democracy in time for the 1180 revolution. The president may need to make some last minute adjustments to reach this in time. The third plan delays the discovery of Democracy by reducing science to 10% again, and does not learn Democracy in an Oedo year. However, this plan provides a couple hundred gold per turn extra for spending on rush builds and more caravans are delivered before Invention is learned.

Please vote for one of the three plans. Also, please vote on the desirability of an instant revolution to Democracy. The Science ministry strongly urges we take advantage of this opportunity for several reasons:
-Our best city, Doughnutia should not have to suffer through Anarchy if we can avoid it
- Democracy will alleviate corruption in our more distant cities and will thus actually allow for bigger delivery payments than I have calculated for the 1180 and 1220 turns (I couldn’t get that fancy!)
- We only have 6 units (5 triremes, 1 elephant) that are currently in position to cause unhappiness and no city supports more than one of these, so the unhappiness should be manageable until we get either Theology+Bach or Magnetism+Leo

Situation summary:
- We are currently researching Invention (~30% complete), which will result in our caravan delivery payments being cut in half once it is complete.
- Democracy will be available as the next tech and should be chosen for our next research.
- We have 16 caravans, 15 of which can be delivered to their destinations by 1200. 9 can reach their destinations by 1140; the other 6 will not arrive until at least 1180. Only three are currently demanded by their destinations: EF Coal to Dou (1180), Dou Hides to Tlaxcala (1200), Dou Gold to Delhi/Bangalore (later). Payoff calculations assume all three are still demanded when delivered.
- Doughnutia is size 13 and growing from celebrations. I project the city should be able to grow uninterrupted to at least size 20 without a change in the tax rate. Delivery payoffs assume an increase in population each turn at least until all trade supporting squares are occupied (i.e., get the road done on the plains SW of Dou ASAP)
- I did not assume any of the in-progress camels would be rushbuilt in time to be delivered by 1200. If some aggressive RBs are made, we might be able to deliver a couple in 1180-1200, but it didn’t seem likely, so I did not deal with them at this time.

* * * * * * * * *
A1. Heavy Science Plan
Keeps 50% science until at least discovery of democracy. Should safely get democracy by 1180 for instant revolution.
- 50% science, Net 40g/turn from taxes
- Deliver 5 of 6 possible caravans by 1120, before invention
- Learn Invention going into 1140
- Learn Democracy going into 1180 – Instant revolution possible*
- Next tech in 1220
- Opportunity to lower science rate going into 1200, 1220 for more gold
- Approx. gold from deliveries
--1100-150
--1120-150
--1140-130
--1160 - 0
--1180-240
--1200-500

A2. Riskier Science Plan
40% science for 2 turns significantly increases risks of not learning democracy in time for instant revolution but gives more gold up front for spending on finishing camels and building improvements. Gives about 90 more gold in first 3 turns than Heavy Science.
-40% science in 1100 and 1120 (leading into 1120 and 1140 turns) gives 75g from taxes for 2 turns then back to 50% to complete Democracy
-all 6 possible caravans delivered to Dou before invention
-Learn Invention going into 1140
-Learn Democracy going into 1180 – instant revolution possible*
- If calculations are not right, we may need to go above 50% science to hit democracy on time in 1180.
- Next tech in 1220
- Opportunity to lower science rate going into 1200, 1220 for more gold
- Approx. gold from deliveries
--1100-150
--1120-220
--1140-100
--1160 - 0
--1180-240
--1200-500


A3. Max Gold plan
Puts science back down to 10% through 1220 to max taxes so the MoDA can buy lots and lots of shiny new toys ;) Delays discovery of Democracy to around 1220 such that we are pushed back to 1260 oedo year (revolt in 1240) and will have to go through 1 full turn of Anarchy to get to Demo government.
-10% science,~60 beakers/turn - 210g/turn from taxes
-8 of 9 caravans that can reach Dou by 1140 are delivered before invention
-Invention learned going into 1160
-Democracy learned going into 1220
-Hides to Tlaxcala used to complete Democracy
- Approx. gold from deliveries
--1100-150
--1120-220
--1140-160
--1160 - 20
--1180-240
--1200-500


* * * * * * * * *
*=”Instant” Revolution may still result in a few cities being processed in Anarchy during the turn, but many cities, most importantly Doughnutia, would be spared Anarchy in both plans.

Foreign deliveries: The Hides caravan to Tlaxcala should provide around 460gold, after discovery of Invention. Because of Gold’s high payoff and the long distance, the delivery to India should provide a maximum payment of around 650-700g even after invention. However the Gold is so many turns from its destination, it does not factor into any of the plans

TheViking
Jun 16, 2003, 10:24 PM
The MoDA has decided to support the heavy science plan (option A1) due to democracy's big advantages but is expecting maximum taxes soon after we discover and switch to democracy, possibly going for Theology/Bach before raising taxes though. Some AI civs have feudalism which we should try to acquire once democracy has been discovered.

TheViking
Jun 16, 2003, 10:31 PM
Hmmm... we must revolt in 1160 meaning that science drops to zero. Will we actually be able to discover democracy in 1180 despite this ?

funxus
Jun 16, 2003, 10:36 PM
I'll read this and vote later, but just one thing. I thought that the delivery payments were alculated on the amount of trade worked and not the trade that says in the tradebox, i.e. corruption is included, other trade routes aren't included. You probably know this better than me, but that's what I've heard.

Leowind
Jun 16, 2003, 10:54 PM
I'm VERY tired this morning and forgot to vote for a B choice. Please add one vote for B1, instant revolt.

TimTheEnchanter
Jun 16, 2003, 11:47 PM
Originally posted by TheViking
Hmmm... we must revolt in 1160 meaning that science drops to zero. Will we actually be able to discover democracy in 1180 despite this ?

NO, that's not how it works. The whole point is that you don't have to revolt in 1160.

When you discover a new Government tech, you are always asked if you want to start a revolution RIGHT AWAY. ("Yes, start a revolution now", or "No, Republic is working fine for now")

You select "Yes, start the revolution" and then only the cities that have yet to be processed that turn experience the Anarchy. Because 1180 is an oedo year, when all cities have been processed, you get the option to choose the new government. Pick Democracy...all is good.

In either of the first two plans, we stay in Republic until at least the processing of Doughnutia. It's beakers are necessary to complete Democracy in either case. It is likely a few of the cities processed after it will be needed as well (Especially in the "Riskier" plan). Once the system has processed the city that throws us over the top on Democracy, we get the pop up and start the revolution. Then only those cities yet to be processed (founded earlier) experience the anarchy. This is why it is so valuable to do it this way if we can.

TimTheEnchanter
Jun 17, 2003, 12:16 AM
Originally posted by funxus
I'll read this and vote later, but just one thing. I thought that the delivery payments were alculated on the amount of trade worked and not the trade that says in the tradebox, i.e. corruption is included, other trade routes aren't included. You probably know this better than me, but that's what I've heard. I'm pretty sure it only uses "active" trade arrows, and that corruption is not considered. I think too many of my calculations have been close to correct for this not to be the case. Maybe I'll try some tests if I get some time at home.

funxus
Jun 17, 2003, 01:28 AM
Originally posted by TimTheEnchanter
I'm pretty sure it only uses "active" trade arrows, and that corruption is not considered. I think too many of my calculations have been close to correct for this not to be the case. Maybe I'll try some tests if I get some time at home.
That's why I'm not so sure about it, you've been correct in most cases...

TimTheEnchanter
Jun 17, 2003, 08:16 PM
It looks like the Heavy Science and Instant Revolution are running away with things, so here’s the key steps for this turn from the Science ministry. I’m not going to lay out individual rushbuys for every city – I leave that to you’re best judgement.

EDIT: I think this goes without saying but delivery calculations assume max trade in cities, even if it means moving workers in other cities temporarily (e.g., both EF and FW should work the whale when their respective vans are delivered). Just don't forget to put workers back in all affected cities when you're done.

1100 – current turn
- Deliver 3 available caravans to Doughnutia. This should give 158g total (RF cloth, PB Dye, LC Salt)
- should be just under half way to completing Invention
- Use the payoff money to IPRB another row of shields on the camels. If you have money left over, you might want to IPRB another row or two on some cities.
- keep science rate at 50% FWIW, I think I assumed we would keep the one Einstein in dou.
- Make sure Dou is happy and has surplus to grow.

1120
- Dou size 14
- Start road on plains square
- Three caravans should be within reach of Dou this turn. You should deliver ONLY 2 of them or the beakers on the third will be wasted. Deliver the EF Salt and LP Hides (76g each). Hold on to the Neu dye caravan so that it can help with Democracy.
- rush more rows of shields
- Keep science at 50%
- Should be nearly complete on Invention (about 25 beakers left)
- Keep Dou happy and growing. Probably Start Stock exchange (check with MoDA)

1140
- Complete invention, select Democracy
- Dough size 15
- I’m guessing tech cost for democracy will be about 950-955 beakers
- Deliver the Neu Dye caravan you held back last turn, and deliver the three additional caravans that can reach the city this turn (BS-Beads, Igloria Beads, FW Salt). These 4 caravans combined should give about 135 g/beakers not that invention has kicked in the 50% reduction.
- IPRB camel rows
- Should be about 40-45% complete on Democracy after caravans delivered.
- Keep dough happy and growing…
- Keep science 50% - I project about 315 beakers/turn due to increased routes, growth.

1160
-Dough size 16
-I don’t think any caravans will be ready to deliver.
-Keep science up. Make sure there is enough beakers to complete democracy this turn!
-If you’ve been rushing a row of shields, many trade camels should be done this turn. Check with MoDA for next build priorities.

1180
- Democracy will be discovered.- You will be asked to start revolution immediately SAY YES TO START REVOLUTION IMMEDIATELY.
- You will probably get messages about food shortages and disorder in several of our older cities (RF, LP, Neu, etc) because we will be in anarchy. Ignore these warnings. We may lose a couple sheafs, but none of these cities is in danger of starving and the problems will be resolved at the start of the turn as soon as we get the Democracy going.
- After the last city has been processed you will be asked to pick a government. Pick Democracy.
- Check/fix Happy status of cities with troops in the field (currently BS, RF, LP, EF, Igl, Nae)
- Deliver available caravans. If possible, deliver EF coal when it is demanded. If coal demand is there to start, deliver that one first. If coal demand is blocked, deliver one of the other vans, and see if coal is freed up. If you can deliver the coal when demanded, you should get about 200g/b from deliveries this turn.
- At this point you can lower the science rate. MoDA will probably have some spending to do here.

1200
If you’re still going at this point, I think you should be able to deliver to Tlaxcala for about 460g –giving a whole boatload of money to spend on stuff.