Here is an Excel file, which tells you the probability of 0 SGLs up to 10 SGLs appearing.
In addition, it tells you the probability of at least 1 up to at least 10 SGLs appearing.

The formula is based on the information, that each time, you are the first to get atech, you have a 3% (5% for scientific civs) to get a Scientific Great Leader.


Version 1.1 20.11.03

http://www.civfanatics.net/uploads5/SGLprob1-1.zip

- Removed protection
- New Fields for adjusting probability of getting a SGL on one try


Just save, extract and open with Excel or a program that supports .xls files.
Enter the number of techs you discover first, press return and you're done...

If download doesn't work, see a few posts down, there is an attached version!

Here is a screenshot (of version 1.1)

that's a good idea, but why put in 8-10, none of them have any chance.
Anyway, it's cool, thanks.

if you enter a larger number, then you have a small chance to get 10 leaders, but really small.

Made a new version.
You can know enter the probability of getting one leader at a tech.
Any other suggestions?

I think it is also more likely to gain Scientific Great Leaders while under golden age. In the current game I'm playing, I've had 3 (playing as the Ottomans) of them so far. 1 was before my golden age and the 2 others during. It's just a theory though.

The chances aren't raised but since you research faster while you're in a Golden Age, you might get more SGLs.

Has this been removed?
I can't DL it...

Here is the file again: Hope this works now again!

I once had 2 SGL appear in 1 turn when I researched Philosophy and got a free tech. The probability of this event was 1/400. :eek:

Congratulations! I never had this happen...so as always what should happen in 1 of 400 tries will happen in 1 of 400 tries(on the average), so never complain about ONE tank losing to a spear...

Very interesting, thanks for the link in your signature.


It looks like the probabity is not per turn but per game. Is this correct?

PF

Very interesting, thanks for the link in your signature.


It looks like the probabity is not per turn but per game. Is this correct?

PF

Yes.
The probability per tech is in line 6 of the sheet. When I made that sheet, I thought you could adjust the probabilities for getting a SGL for your scenarios.
But it's hardcoded to be 3% for non-scientific civs and 5% for scientific civs. For scenarios, you can only set them off.
But you can use the sheet to compute the prob for one turn. Just enter 0,1 or 2, depending on how many techs you get first in that turn and you have the prob for one turn (except if you get 2 techs, it's not that interesting)
The main purpose is to see, if it's useful to be the tech leader and to see that you can't really know before how many leaders you get in that game.

If you have further questions, don't be afraid to ask...

Attached updated sheet with chart for scientific civ showing probibility for SGL with 1..20 tech lead on second tab. This Xcel file is readable by Lotus and StarOffice and the formulas seen to reflect the same numbers.

Enjoy.

PF

Which version is fully compatible with 1.22 man?

Hi Paalikles,

there is no difference between 1.00 and 1.22 regarding the probability of getting SGLs, so every version is fully compatible.
The only difference you can find, is that in scenarios that are made with 1.22 SGLs are turned off, so you won't get any. And you can turn off SGLs in the setup screen.
But then you won't need my sheet anyway.

Regards,
socralynnek

A lot of time a played GOTM 36-Ottoman for SGL but I never saw SGL(Scientific Great Leader). I discovered more than 20 tech first but I didn't saw SGL. Is there any patch for my PTW(1.27) or other think.

Yes.
The probability per tech is in line 6 of the sheet. When I made that sheet, I thought you could adjust the probabilities for getting a SGL for your scenarios.
But it's hardcoded to be 3% for non-scientific civs and 5% for scientific civs. For scenarios, you can only set them off.
But you can use the sheet to compute the prob for one turn. Just enter 0,1 or 2, depending on how many techs you get first in that turn and you have the prob for one turn (except if you get 2 techs, it's not that interesting)
The main purpose is to see, if it's useful to be the tech leader and to see that you can't really know before how many leaders you get in that game.

If you have further questions, don't be afraid to ask...

I've barely been playing and I saw 7 back to back SGLs in my game as the Persians. On the other hand I am a very lucky person considering I once rolled 19 back to back Yahtzees with 9 people as my witness at a family party :)

A lot of time a played GOTM 36-Ottoman for SGL but I never saw SGL(Scientific Great Leader). I discovered more than 20 tech first but I didn't saw SGL. Is there any patch for my PTW(1.27) or other think.

SGLs are introduced with the Conquests Expansion, and as far as I remember, there was no way to include them in the editor in PTW or vanilla.
(And if you play a COTM, you will also see none of them, they have them switched off.)
But even with Conquests, researching 20 techs first as a scientific civ, you have still a 35% chance of getting no leader, which is about as much as rolling a dice and getting something greater than 4.
I think, SGLs are hardcoded (and sadly also the chances), so go and buy Conquests, then you can get some...(and maybe download Rise and rule mod then, there are a lot more techs there, so greater chances of getting a SGL.)

I've barely been playing and I saw 7 back to back SGLs in my game as the Persians. On the other hand I am a very lucky person considering I once rolled 19 back to back Yahtzees with 9 people as my witness at a family party :)

So, you are the prove for every theory...the chance of those streaks happening are very low...but they aren't zero, so, considering there were millions of games already played in Conquests, they should happen to someone...
So, could you please tell me the numbers of the lottery coming weekend???

A lot of time a played GOTM 36-Ottoman for SGL but I never saw SGL(Scientific Great Leader). I discovered more than 20 tech first but I didn't saw SGL. Is there any patch for my PTW(1.27) or other think.

I've NEVER NEVER NEVER had more than one SGL! :mad:

Actually MOST of the times I don't get SGL's... and I've read that people got several people got MULTIPLE SGL's in ONE turn... I must be doing something wrong! :cry:

I'ven even thought it wasn't possible to get more than 1 SGL at one time! Even with the other type of leaders (MGL?) I NEVER get another one if I still have one unused... so I've assumed that you could one get one at the time... got to try new tactics.

Got to go destroy some empires now!

I've NEVER NEVER NEVER had more than one SGL! :mad:

Actually MOST of the times I don't get SGL's... and I've read that people got several people got MULTIPLE SGL's in ONE turn... I must be doing something wrong! :cry:

I'ven even thought it wasn't possible to get more than 1 SGL at one time! Even with the other type of leaders (MGL?) I NEVER get another one if I still have one unused... so I've assumed that you could one get one at the time... got to try new tactics.

Got to go destroy some empires now!

The rule is: You can't get a MGL if you already have ANY leader (SGL or MGL), but you can always get SGLs.
Anf if you get a free tech that no one else has (e.g. if you discover Philosophy first and choose wisely) you can even have two of them in one turn (with a free tech from era change with a sci civ it should even be possible to get three in one turn), but the chances are lower.

That is good ,useful and nice utility to have. Better than calculate it yourself!

does this tool do other things than multiply .97 for the # of techs i got before all others did?

are these a posteriori or a priori propabilities?

and what does "techs in lead" mean? techs obtained as first civ, or techs owning while no other one does?

need a formula plz + much more explanation :cry:

any1? :bump:

Sorry, massa, was on holiday....

"techs in lead" means how many techs you have found as the first civ who had it.

The sheet calculates the probability of getting a specific number of SGLs.

The formula is from probability calculus, getting a number of hits in n tries where each hit has the same probability.

The percentage is for a whole game and since you can't really know how many techs you get first, these can only be accurate after the game (or up to a point in the game)

If you need more explanation, feel free to ask.