It was a boring week end over here, so I went to my archive to make a statistics of each country's record at penalty shoot outs in the Euro Championships, World Cup and Copa America. Here are the results:

Team: won-lost
Argentina: 5-1
Germany: 4-1
Czechoslovakya: 2-0
France: 3-2
Uruguay: 3-2
Colombia: 2-1
Belgium: 1-0
Bulgaria: 1-0
Czech Rep.: 1-0
Honduras: 1-0
Portugal: 1-0
South Korea: 1-0
USA: 1-0
Brazil: 3-3
Denmark: 1-1
Ireland: 1-1
Sweden: 1-1
Mexico: 2-3
Spain: 2-3
Chile: 0-1
Equador: 0-1
Peru: 0-1
Yugoslavia: 0-1
Paraguay: 0-2
Romania: 0-2
England: 1-4
Italy: 1-4
Netherlands: 1-4

Germany, Italy, England, Netherlands and Spain are the teams with more penalty shoot outs played, 5 each, with Germany by far the most successful, having not lost a penalty shhot out since 1976. England, Italy and the Netherlands now share the bottom spot as the two most unsuccessful teams in penalty shoot outs, having won only 1 each. Argentina is also quite successful, and never lost a penalty shoot out at the WC, which may be another story if the Copa America results are taken into account. Combining the Czech Republic and Czechoslovakya also gives a record of 3 wins and no losses. OTOH, Mexico and Romania are also quite unlucky.

Edit: Added Copa America results. Argentina now becomes the most successful club and Uruguay has now also 5 penalty shoot outs, all in the Copa America. Argentina and Brazil are now the teams that went through the most, 6 each.

Yeah, Italy Sucks...Flashback: WC '94 :cry: :cry:

ahh...wc 94. great day! vicotry for Brazil!!

Too bad the one Germany lost was a final...

I remember them well. England lost in 1990 to Germany in World Cup semi-final. England beat Spain in 1996 in European Championship Quarter-final. England lost in 1996 to Germany in European Championship Quarter-final. England lost in 1998 to Argentina in World Cup Second Round. England lost in 2004 to Portugal in European Championship Quarter-Final.

The 1996 lost to German hurt the most. Not only were we knocked out of our championship but by the Germans, again.

The 1996 lost to German hurt the most. Not only were we knocked out of our championship but by the Germans, again.
It was a great match, though.

Not so great when you lose...

The 1996 lost to German hurt the most. Not only were we knocked out of our championship but by the Germans, again.

Who was it back then, Southgate?

Yep............

It was a great match, though.
If anyone asked me why I love football I would tell them to watch that match.

The memory of that missed penalty and the weird grey strips has blotted out the rest of the match. I obviously drowned my sorrows too thoroughly!

My country are too crap to even get a sniff of a penalty shootout. :mad:

My country are too crap to even get a sniff of a penalty shootout. :mad:

Tell me about it!! :mischief:

I reckon we'd be even worse than England at them!! Especiallly if Big Gary McAllister was still playing!!

The penalty shootout was invented in Northern Ireland. ;)

Our great contribution to evil.

Good stats to ponder :goodjob: . I knew of Englands and Italys past troubles :eek: :rolleyes: , but didn't know about the Netherlands having
such difficulty too :sad: . It is not THAT difficult! :D

It was a boring week end over here, so I went to my archive to make a statistics of each country's record at penalty shoot outs in the Euro Championships, World Cup and Copa America. Here are the results:

Team: won-lost
Argentina: 5-1
Germany: 4-1
Uruguay: 3-1
Czechoslovakya: 2-0
France: 3-2
Uruguay: 3-2
Belgium: 1-0
Bulgaria: 1-0
Czech Rep.: 1-0
Honduras: 1-0
Portugal: 1-0
South Korea: 1-0
USA: 1-0
Brazil: 3-3
Denmark: 1-1
Ireland: 1-1
Sweden: 1-1
Mexico: 2-3
Spain: 2-3
Chile: 0-1
Equador: 0-1
Peru: 0-1
Yugoslavia: 0-1
Paraguay: 0-2
Romania: 0-2
England: 1-4
Italy: 1-4
Netherlands: 1-4


@MCdread Good work compiling this table :thumbsup:
Just one thing confusing me, why have their been 40 penalty shoot-outs won in major competitions, but only 39 lost? :hmm:

Er... cause maybe I made a mistake? :p I'll check that out later.

...but didn't know about the Netherlands having
such difficulty too :sad: . It is not THAT difficult! :D

You can imagine the celebrations when we finally won one them! We were alone at the bottom of those stats, now at least we share that honour... :lol:

You're still last alphabetically :p

...but *we* still have a chance to better that result within the week unlike others I could mention... :mischief:

...but *we* still have a chance to better that result within the week unlike others I could mention... :mischief:


Ouch :whipped: 'em when they are down. :D :lol: . I hope "you" do get
that chance, it will make for an exciting game :scan: .

...but *we* still have a chance to better that result within the week unlike others I could mention... :mischief:
Or worsen it and be dead last again...

Or worsen it and be dead last again...

Yes... there's that too. :)

Ok, I think I got it right now in the table.

during the world cup 2002, South Korea sucked at penalty shots during the actual game, but for a shootout we beat the spanish...

'92 Holland - Denmark 2-2 (4-5 on penalties)
'96 Holland - France 1-1 (4-5 on penalties)
'98 Holland - Brazil 1-1 (2-4 on penalties)
'00 Holland - Italy 0-0 (1-3 on penalties)
'04 Holland - Sweden 0-0 (5-4 on penalties!!)

So the 2000 game against Holland is the only penalty shootout we ever won... and the only time I ever went to a stadium too watch live football -good pick, I dare say :D

Ok, I know, I know, don't say anything. I know Italy sucks

... and the only time I ever went to a stadium too watch live football -good pick, I dare say...

Indeed... :eek:.

:hmm:

Tell me, do you figure it worthwhile for me to travel to Lisboa tonight? ;) I still need to fill in a prediction of the score. :yeah:

Well, Lisboa surely deserves a travel -more than a football match does, methinks...

Back in 2000 I was still living in Wassenaar, so it wasn't that much of a journey for my lazy self :D

BTW, good luck to the Oranjes -it would be nice to see them through after another penalty shootout... ;)

Well, Lisboa surely deserves a travel ...

I know, I've been there. :)


BTW, good luck to the Oranjes -it would be nice to see them through after another penalty shootout... ;)

I don't know whether I could bear watching if we need to go through that again! I didn't last time, but I could still hear how it went anyway. :D

I always end up watching penalties...

Watching penalties is always very exciting... when the side you support is not playing, that is ;)

Seems like a good time to revive this thread. Here's an updated list with Copa America 2004 and WC 2006 included.

Team: won-lost
Germany: 5-1
Argentina: 5-3
Czechoslovakya: 2-0
Portugal: 2-0
Brazil: 5-3
France: 3-2
Colombia: 2-1
Belgium: 1-0
Bulgaria: 1-0
Czech Rep.: 1-0
Honduras: 1-0
South Korea: 1-0
Ukraine: 1-0
USA: 1-0
Uruguay: 3-3
Denmark: 1-1
Ireland: 1-1
Sweden: 1-1
Mexico: 2-3
Spain: 2-3
Chile: 0-1
Equador: 0-1
Peru: 0-1
Switzerland: 0-2
Yugoslavia: 0-1
Paraguay: 0-2
Romania: 0-2
Italy: 1-4
Netherlands: 1-4
England: 1-5

Germany tops the table by an enormous distance. England are at the bottom after losing yet again yesterday.

Im surprised we've won a penalty shoot out I dont remember us winning one.

I have no idea where this German strength is coming from. For one, Germany almost always had world class keepers but that doesn't explain why Germans rarely miss in those shoot outs.

Im surprised we've won a penalty shoot out I dont remember us winning one.

It was against Spain in the quarter finals of the Euro 96.

Im surprised we've won a penalty shoot out I dont remember us winning one.

England won one against Spain in 96.

So England.. 2 of those losses were against Germany?

Comparing England and Germany is indeed bizarre. On the german side, they definitely seem to hit them well when it comes to it. Friday for example, all penalties were very well taken, the keaper had no chance.

On England, my only explanation is the ghost of past failures. It's true that for the past few years England hasn't had a good goal keeper, which is important. But if you kick your penalties right, there's not much he can do. And take Lampard for example: I've never seen him missing a penalty, as far as I know it's been years since he missed one, yet yesterday he shot a penalty without confidence, and Ricardo easily stopped that one. In fact all England penalties were quite mediocre yesterday, and as I said above, the only explanation is the burden of previous failures...

We don't even get to the opening stages of a match, let alone the great myth that is penalty shoot outs :p

Lampard missed one in a warm up match which is one of the reasons why I thought he was going to miss that penalty.

Comparing England and Germany is indeed bizarre. On the german side, they definitely seem to hit them well when it comes to it. Friday for example, all penalties were very well taken, the keaper had no chance.

On England, my only explanation is the ghost of past failures. It's true that for the past few years England hasn't had a good goal keeper, which is important. But if you kick your penalties right, there's not much he can do. And take Lampard for example: I've never seen him missing a penalty, as far as I know it's been years since he missed one, yet yesterday he shot a penalty without confidence, and Ricardo easily stopped that one. In fact all England penalties were quite mediocre yesterday, and as I said above, the only explanation is the burden of previous failures...

I agree with you. Apparently England had been training excessively for a penalty shoot-out. It certainly didn't show, and my first thought was that the sheer pressure of an England team to break their record with shoot-outs was the deciding nerve-breaker.

It is a situation the nerves play the most important role. If England has to go into a shoot out they will think about the losses. And even so the pressure is getting more and more. The self confidence is going back and they get more nervous. So they think too much- they should simple shoot! Then they would be more successful. Perhaps I should delete that as I can help the Tommies winning against us... ;)
However this is not trainable. The Argentinians did train the shoot out but they lost nonetheless. The Germans did not do so. They did not train it as they said, it depends only on the situation. The side who is less nervous will win. At the end Germany won because the Argentinians were too nervous at last. I do not want to lower Lehmann's performance but the shot by Ayala was very weak. Such a shot of such an experienced man does only mean he was too nervous. Simple but true. And finally Cambiasso showed nerves, too.
Relying on a shoot out is a damned bad choice in all cases.

Adler

Well, at World Cups, my country did suck...

But at the Euro cup from "19 I forgot what year" the Romanian keeper Ducadam from the Romanian team Steaua managed to stop ALL the penalties of the enemy team! :eek::eek: (btw, it was the final)

Relying on a shoot out is a damned bad choice in all cases.

Adler

What would you suggest instead though? They can't keep playing until someone scores. It's a harsh way to go, but I can't think of any other alternatives right now.

On England, my only explanation is the ghost of past failures.

I think it's just random, to be honest. People search for meaning and explanations, when sometimes it is possible just to toss a head five times out of six. In most cases, there is only a limited overlap in terms of the players from one shoot-out and the next, so it's not the players. And I really can't buy any explanation based on racial or cultural chacteristics ("emotionless Germans", or "mediterranean temeprament of the Italians" etc). Haunted by ghosts ? Do players really get that much affected by what happened a generation ago ? I'm unconvinced by that.

I think it's more like as in "Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead" - when the two main characters bet on coin tosses, and a hundred or so are won in a row by the same one of the main charcaters, the one who wins doesn't see anything odd, while the other desperately seeks pattern and meaning to it. It's the same with penalty shoot-outs.

Good stats, though.

My country sucks at football, so it would stand to reason that they also suck at shoot outs.

Well, you were present at one world cup at least.

Where we didn't score one goal. ;)

France did suck on penalties : It happened the July 8th of 1982 and that was enough to make us understand.

It was a semi-final between Platini's France and Rummenigge's West Germany. Schumacher assaulting Battiston, the game ending at 1-1 after 90 minutes, then France leading 3-1 and being caught back 3-3. Finally, France losing at the penalty shoot-outs.

After that game, we've understood that to win any tournament, we have to score more goals than the opponents during playoff games. Granted we've been lucky against Italy in 1998, but I certainly don't want to see France playing the penalty shoot-outs anymore. Ever.

I think it's more like as in "Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead" - when the two main characters bet on coin tosses, and a hundred or so are won in a row by the same one of the main charcaters, the one who wins doesn't see anything odd, while the other desperately seeks pattern and meaning to it. It's the same with penalty shoot-outs.


Getting a hundred coin tosses wrong is just inordinately unlikely, though (as in, so unlikely I wouldn't use it as a serious plot device). Maybe it's rather a case of path-dependence on previous results, where good results in past shootouts breed confidence and poor results breed pressure.

Your guess is as good as mine, though :).

Lampard missed one in a warm up match which is one of the reasons why I thought he was going to miss that penalty.


i knew he'd miss simply because its England

I have heard recently that Germany only ever missed 2 penalties on those 6 shoot-outs altogether! One would be Uli Stielike in WC 1982, the other Uli Hoeness in EC 1976. The latter one was a catastrophe. As they say, they are still searching for the ball on Belgrad´s roofs. Besides this one occasion, I wouldn´t say Germany sucks at penalties in general. ;)

The outcome of a shoot-out is mostly random imo, I agree with Lambert here. Yet, there are smallish factors to alter the ratio. The shooting player must be absolutely convinced to score - a good personal and national record may help in that regard, though it might also be a burden. One needs good nerves to ignore the emotional circumstances.
Also the keeper can be trained on penalties. There are academical studies about reading the shooting player´s body language to determine the side he is aiming at. You can also make an analysis about the shooting players former penalties to increase your chances - Germany obviously did so against Argentina. Both Lehmann and Ricardo seemed to be well prepared. They were in the right corner on every penalty against them, hence they could catch the ones that were shot rather weakly. You couldn´t say the same about Robinson for example.

well, IIRC, Switzerland is the only country to ever fail at scoring even a single goal at a WC penalty shootout, so that should answer the question :ack:

Relying on a shoot out is a damned bad choice in all cases.


Argentina got all the way to final in 1990 with that tactic. Goycochea - the reserve goalie who got to play because Pumpido broke his leg - certainly had a knack for catching penalties.

I have no idea where this German strength is coming from. For one, Germany almost always had world class keepers but that doesn't explain why Germans rarely miss in those shoot outs.

Because they're good at any national sport they're having.
When, as English say, it was war, :p they were indeed good at it (and this is not a joke, they were very good!) ;)

I think the crucial factor here tends to be team history. In England there are still ads running showing England losing on penalties. Most supporters can name the players that have missed. Its part of our culture and that affects the players. They know that. Other countries have a history of success that their players know too. So runs of success and failure tend to continue.

Belgium has still a clean record. Never missed a penalty in a penalty shoot-out! :D
Now, I have to add that up until now Belgium has only once had to take penalties on a big tournament.

@Twonky. I quite agree with your factors which can affect the outcome of a particular shoot-out - you've summed them up well. It's the apparent patterns which people read into the series of successes and failures over a period of 10 or 20 years involving a series of different players which I think are largely random. I just think the human mind looks for patterns and meaning where none exist.

Kan' Sharuminar,
what I meant it is dangerous to rely on that. You're playing with your luck and Fortuna is switching the sides too fast. I meant the strategy can be successful though. But in the end it is like Russian Roulette with 3 bullets (unless you play against England...).
No, seriously, such a strategy is too dangerous. The Argentinian example of 1990 is a good one. The managed it to go through to the final where they again played that strategy. But shortly before the end the Germans got a penalty and they lost. Only one single goal can then make the diference. And if you have only a few minutes to play you have massive problems.
Such a strategy is not only very dangerous or even dumb, but also not fair as such a team seem unable to win against the other team by normal means and then try to reach the "duel" phase.
Don't get me wrong: There can for all teams be tactical situations in which a shoot out can be sensible. But that is TACTIC and no STRATEGY.

Adler

@Adler:Good reply :goodjob:

I definitely don't think it is random. Or better yet, it is random, but just to a certain extent. Lehmann for example got a little paper before each argentinian penalty telling what was the most likely side for that player to shoot, given past tendencies. Maybe that didn't help in the end, maybe it did. But it certainly gave Lehmann confidence, that he had a staff behind helping him the best they could. Otoh, it is more less agreed that there are certain goalies that have been more successful than others handling penalty kicks. The well-taken penalties are impossible to save, but there are many others that aren't, and if you have a good keeper it helps. For example, Dida, Marcos, Barthez, Ricardo, Lehmann himself, all have the label (correct or not) that they are good penalty stoppers. When you have the responsability to take a penalty, and you're facing a goalie that everyone says is very goos at it, whether it's right or wrong, if you can't handle your nerves very well, there is a good chance you may miss it.
The there are of course certain players that are better than others at shooting. I'm sure Zidane is way better than Makelélé at it.

And finally, I do think past records matter. The whole team of England is different from the one that lost in 1990 or 1996, but when it comes to penalties, most England fans will immediatly think that they're already doomed. The press will think the same, even the oppoenents might think the same. As time goes by and failures add to each other, it becomes almost a certified truth that England sucks at penalties. In itself that doesn't mean nothing, but if the players, under tremendous pressure, start to think on that, on what the whole nation thinks about penalty shoot outs, there is a chance that a few will think just a little too much on that, and then shoot without confidence. Statistically, if you're not confident, it's likely you'll end up missing more than the opponent.
Of course, if next time England wins, the fansd and pundits might believe the trauma is over, and convince the players of the same thing, and they may start winning more often. But as it stands, i think that on the back of every english player's head there is this little unspoken thought "Damn, not penalties again!"

I think the crucial factor here tends to be team history. In England there are still ads running showing England losing on penalties. Most supporters can name the players that have missed. Its part of our culture and that affects the players. They know that. Other countries have a history of success that their players know too. So runs of success and failure tend to continue.
I think that you're onto something here. English people seem obsessed with their team's failure at penalty shootouts. This was typified by Motty (commentator on BBC) who insisted on naming every English player who has missed in a peno shoot out when England-Portugal was heading for penalties.

On the other hand the only thing I remember about Ireland's two penalty shoot-outs is Timofte's shot saved by Packie Bonner in the 1990 round of 16 game between Ireland and Romania. Even though the loss on penalties to Spain happened in 2002 (12 years later!) I couldn't name a single Irish player who missed. I couldn't care less. What I remember from that game is Ireland playing a tiring Spanish team off the pitch in extra time.

I definitely don't think it is random. Or better yet, it is random, but just to a certain extent. Lehmann for example got a little paper before each argentinian penalty telling what was the most likely side for that player to shoot, given past tendencies. Maybe that didn't help in the end, maybe it did. But it certainly gave Lehmann confidence, that he had a staff behind helping him the best they could. Otoh, it is more less agreed that there are certain goalies that have been more successful than others handling penalty kicks. The well-taken penalties are impossible to save, but there are many others that aren't, and if you have a good keeper it helps. For example, Dida, Marcos, Barthez, Ricardo, Lehmann himself, all have the label (correct or not) that they are good penalty stoppers. When you have the responsability to take a penalty, and you're facing a goalie that everyone says is very goos at it, whether it's right or wrong, if you can't handle your nerves very well, there is a good chance you may miss it.
The there are of course certain players that are better than others at shooting. I'm sure Zidane is way better than Makelélé at it.

And finally, I do think past records matter. The whole team of England is different from the one that lost in 1990 or 1996, but when it comes to penalties, most England fans will immediatly think that they're already doomed. The press will think the same, even the oppoenents might think the same. As time goes by and failures add to each other, it becomes almost a certified truth that England sucks at penalties. In itself that doesn't mean nothing, but if the players, under tremendous pressure, start to think on that, on what the whole nation thinks about penalty shoot outs, there is a chance that a few will think just a little too much on that, and then shoot without confidence. Statistically, if you're not confident, it's likely you'll end up missing more than the opponent.
Of course, if next time England wins, the fansd and pundits might believe the trauma is over, and convince the players of the same thing, and they may start winning more often. But as it stands, i think that on the back of every english player's head there is this little unspoken thought "Damn, not penalties again!"I agree with MCdread in here, and I would simply add that the games being played is also an important factor. When a team has regrets to play the penalties that's already bad news for them. A good example for that is Argentina against Germany. When you have the feeling you could have won the game without getting through the penalty shootouts, you're not as focused as if you made a fantastic return in the game and were scared to be doomed during a part of the game. It's some kind of survivor feeling : I was sure it was over for me, and all of a sudden events offer me a second chance.

The most emblematic game in which that feeling has appeared the most obviously is certainly the first penalty shootous ever in a World Cup. It was the game between France and West Germany. When France was leading 3-1, French players were already thinking about the final, they even felt they were in final. Finally, after the amazing entrance of Rummenigge and the score getting back to 3-3, Germany had an amazing mental strength for the penalty shoot outs. They thought it was all over, and suddenly they have another chance.

There's always one of both teams which have more regrets to play the penalties and another team which consider them more as an opportunity. Generally, it's always the former who prevail.

There's always one of both teams which have more regrets to play the penalties and another team which consider them more as an opportunity. Generally, it's always the former who prevail.
Portugal played against 10-men-England for about an hour and thus should (at least rather than England) have won it without the shootout. Still England survived that but didn't manage to win the shootout. I think that's already one example against this theory.

Portugal played against 10-men-England for about an hour and thus should (at least rather than England) have won it without the shootout. Still England survived that but didn't manage to win the shootout. I think that's already one example against this theory.

Yeah, but Portugal's players on the pitch by then weren't nowehere near enough quality to cause any harm to any decent defense. I mean, what was everyone expecting from the likes of Viana, Postiga or Simão. :ack:

Yeah, but Portugal's players on the pitch by then weren't nowehere near enough quality to cause any harm to any decent defense. I mean, what was everyone expecting from the likes of Viana, Postiga or Simão. :ack:
Nevertheless you can't say England "were winning it" at any point of the match, which was the premise of Marla's theory.

Nevertheless you can't say England "were winning it" at any point of the match, which was the premise of Marla's theory.

Yeah, i was just pointing to an important detail. ;) But I think the point is that it is the summation and combination of many factors, including possibly that one in certain circumstances.

Yeah, i was just pointing to an important detail. ;) But I think the point is that it is the summation and combination of many factors, including possibly that one in certain circumstances.
I would side with Lambert to a large degree at least. Luck or rather randomness is probably the major factor. Followed by the goalkeeper's ability against penalties. Strange morale issues probably rate rather low.

Nevertheless you can't say England "were winning it" at any point of the match, which was the premise of Marla's theory.That's also true for Portugal Hitro. No team had scored after 120 minutes. Hence a 0-0 draw isn't really the best example to illustrate the theory.

I don't say there's anything scientific in that though. It's just a feeling I have. And by the way, knowing the historical records of England in penalties, I sincerly believe the English players were starting their penalty shoot outs against Portugal in seeing them more as a punishmen than as a real opportunity to go through...

But once again, even if mental strength is undoubtedly a factor to take into account for penalty shootouts, it's not the only one. To take back the example of Germany vs Argentina, Argentina wasn't helped by the fact they had to substitute their goalie during the game...

I would side with Lambert to a large degree at least. Luck or rather randomness is probably the major factor. Followed by the goalkeeper's ability against penalties. Strange morale issues probably rate rather low.

Yes, I think that from the point of view of an external observer, ie, us, that's possibly the right sequance. However, from our point of view, luck or randomness may incorporate many little details that have some sort of pattern, but that we will never understand beyond the apparent randomness.

Oh well, what the hell are we elaborating on, these are just damn penalties on a football game, although it's certain that Germany wins and England loses. ;)

But once again, even if mental strength is undoubtedly a factor to take into account for penalty shootouts, it's not the only one. To take back the example of Germany vs Argentina, Argentina wasn't helped by the fact they had to substitute their goalie during the game...
Maybe, but then only because of his (supposed!) lack of penalty saving ability compared with the number one.
In 1990 Argentina won the shootouts largely due to their replacement keeper.

Will teams start to have a specialist 'penalty saving' goalkeeper that they bring on just for the shootout?

The English perhaps will think about that...

Adler

Well Robinson has a pretty good record at saving pens.

I can see a time when a team has a keeperwho isnt much good at crosses or coming out for the ball or organising defenses but specialises at penalty shootouts. Maybe a team would bring on a specialist keeper rather than one specialist taker which tends to happen at present.

Well Robinson has a pretty good record at saving pens.

I can see a time when a team has a keeperwho isnt much good at crosses or coming out for the ball or organising defenses but specialises at penalty shootouts. Maybe a team would bring on a specialist keeper rather than one specialist taker which tends to happen at present.

I don't think it's worth it to burn a substitution for that purpose. Besides, if it didn't work the coach would crucified. Otoh, if you look at handball, where substitutions are free, it's incredibly common to replace your goal keeper just to defend a 7 meters throw, the equivalent to a penalty kick. That goalie will then return to the bench and give the place back to the previous.


Edit: Btw, it's curious to see how Robinson handled the penalkty kick by Postiga. Last time Postiga chiped it á la Panenka to the middle of the goal. This time, Robinson stood in the middle of the goal, probably waiting for the same, while he kicked to the right side...

Abondanzieri is a great keeper at penalty shootouts. He has won several Copa Libertadores titles for Boca precisely because of his penalty-saving abilities. Argentina had bad luck when he got injured. Germany has done an amazing job witth their research on their rivals, such as the one they did about the Argentinian strikers. And Lehmann is also a great keeper, so that helped as well.

I definitely don't think it is random. Or better yet, it is random, but just to a certain extent. Lehmann for example got a little paper before each argentinian penalty telling what was the most likely side for that player to shoot, given past tendencies. Maybe that didn't help in the end, maybe it did. But it certainly gave Lehmann confidence, that he had a staff behind helping him the best they could.

Interestingly, Lehmann didn't get the little paper from his staff, but from Dutch coach Huub Stevens (former trainer to Schalke '04 and Hertha among others). Stevens apparently has a database of how ~2000 players take their spot kicks. Now-retired Dutch keeper Hans van Breukelen was also famous for having a little booklet which he would ostentatiously consult about how players took their penalties. Of course, he might just have been messing with their heads :D.

I also ran into a Dutch article just now on two academic studies arguing that penalties aren't just nonrandom (experienced goalscorers score more often from them than defenders), but also that believing them to be random leads to worse results. Players are already under a lot of pressure at the spot kicks, and if they believe the outcome is out of their hands, then their confidence suffers even more.

What's the difference between a German beer and a Dutch penalty?

"Ein Bier geht immer rein!"

^^LOL, nice one
btw, according to bierhoff, the only thing that was written on the paper was "save at least two penalties! :P

Just to clarify, I'm not trying to say that the results of a particular shoot-out are random (though luck plays a large part in it). I'm saying that the apparent "patterns" over a twenty year period where it appears that England are always lousy at penalties, and Germany are always good, are really just random, and we look to place a meaningful interpretation on the sequence.

That last penalty shoot out we were in, we won. :D Now we can never know how good Australia could have been at them, since we never were allowed to get that far.

thanks to the ref and Grosso ;)