View Full Version : Probabilities of goody huts, C3C


Oystein
Jul 07, 2004, 12:23 PM
I made an excel file to calculate the probabilities of goody huts.

You can check on/off the option that are not posible, and the table will be updated. Or you can look at the picture and calculate yourself. The upper table are for expansionists, and the lower for others.

Condition needed for the different goodies.
(copied from Apolyton)

Gold:
--The tile must not have any type of resource or luxury on it.

Maps:
--always available

Nothing:
--always available

Settler:
--Player must not have a settler (active or in production) or any unit with the Settle AI strategy.
--Player must have less cities than (TotalCities / NumActivePlayers).

Mercenaries (skilled warrior):
--There must be a unit available to the Barbarians as well as the player and that unit must be able to be built (or have been built) by some player in the game.

Tech:
--Player must still be in Ancient Times.

Barbarians:
--Player must not have Expansionist trait.
--There must not be a city within a 1-tile radius.
--The player must have at least 1 city.
--The player must have at least 1 military unit.
--The unit popping the hut must not have the "All Terrain As Roads" ability.

superslug
Jul 07, 2004, 04:24 PM
Do you have the Sid-hut exceptions factored into this? Human players will never pop techs from a hut on Sid...

Oystein
Jul 07, 2004, 04:42 PM
Yes, but I would not call it an exception.

Take a look on the column to the right in the picture (the numbers under Sid). You will see that expansionist can only get gold, map and warrior (equal probability. None-expansionists will only get map, warrior and barbarians (clear overweight of barbarians).

On deity you will never get a city, but settler is quite likely for expansionists.

Arathorn
Jul 08, 2004, 06:15 AM
Thanks, Oystein. This is very cool. How was it verified/tested/created? I've not seen the information that would be required to go into this.

Arathorn

Oystein
Jul 08, 2004, 06:23 AM
I have testet this with popping huts with different seed values. I change the seed with a hex editor, and see when the result changes. This mean I there is no statistical error. If I have made a mistake, the result is probably way off.

Arathorn
Jul 08, 2004, 06:38 AM
Interesting. So the seed stored is actually the next PRNG to be generated. And after its generation, the new "seed" is actually the next number? I was not aware of that. That might make a lot of this testing much easier.

If I understand you, then with a Sid expansionist Civ, if the seed is, say, <(2**32)/3, then you get gold, seed between (2**32)/3 and (2**32)*2/3 is gold and seed greater than (2**32)/3 gives a warrior. Am I correct in my understanding?

How many data points in the various ranges did you check, if I may ask? I'm just trying to understand the methodology.

Arathorn

Oystein
Jul 08, 2004, 06:58 AM
No, it is not that simple. I spend quite some time to figure out how the prng worked, searching for prng algoriths. But now I know how it works, it is no problem to find the seed value needed to give the next number i want.

For emperor, none expansionists:
If the next number is between 0 and 0.05*(2**15), you will get a city. From 0.05*(2**15) to 0.15*(2**15) a tech...
If the result is something that you cant get (ex: barbs for expansionists), there will be a redraw.

I dont know how many tests I made. In the beginning I made a lot, because I did not now where the limits where, or even how the system worked. In the end I pretty much knew what the result should be.

dmanakho
Jul 08, 2004, 01:11 PM
It is interesting that on Demigod level chances to get a tech are higher for Exp. civ. than on a level below.

player1 fanatic
Jul 08, 2004, 01:57 PM
And odds for getting cities + settlers are best on Demigod too.
No wonder I like playing Incas on demigod.

diploled
Sep 13, 2004, 11:40 AM
Oystein,

Do you know if the probability takes into account the settler when popping a hut by building a city?
Elaborating an example: suppose you only have one settler, and it builds close to a goody hut, so it's popped by the build - will you have a chance to get a settler, or will the probability be zero because you 'still' had a settler when popping the hut?
Thanks in advance!

Pfeffersack
Sep 13, 2004, 05:11 PM
Oystein,

Do you know if the probability takes into account the settler when popping a hut by building a city?
Elaborating an example: suppose you only have one settler, and it builds close to a goody hut, so it's popped by the build - will you have a chance to get a settler, or will the probability be zero because you 'still' had a settler when popping the hut?
Thanks in advance!

I think the rule is simply if you have a settler or just building one at the moment, you can't get one through a goody hut.I have no evidence for this, but it seems to be the "logical" solution for me.

Oystein
Sep 14, 2004, 02:31 PM
Do you know if the probability takes into account the settler when popping a hut by building a city?You cant get a settler or city when building a city, even if you use your last settler to build the city.

diploled
Sep 15, 2004, 03:15 PM
Thanks a lot! I should have figured the city out by myself - can't have a city within another one's limits, duh! - players like me owe a great deal to researchers like you.

Dragonlord
Sep 22, 2004, 03:40 AM
@oystein: Very interesting stats!

Just one thing: how come you have the probability of getting 'nothing' from a goody hut as '0' for all normal civs on any difficulty,and for Expansionists above Warlord?

Unless I'm reading your diagram wrong, this can't be correct. I've never played below Regent, mostly Emperor and above, and I distinctly remember getting a 'this village has been abandoned' message every now and then!

Oystein
Sep 27, 2004, 12:31 PM
You are reading correctly.

I also remember getting 'this village has been abandoned' quite often on the higher levels, but I have not seen one in a long time. The rules must have changed. I dont know when, but I guessed the probabilities was the same for c3c.

Which verison are you playing?

AlanH
Sep 27, 2004, 12:53 PM
I've had deserted villages several times in recent Games of the Month, playing vanilla v1.29. I don't think Ainwood tinkers with the rules.

Oystein
Sep 27, 2004, 03:02 PM
Deserted villages also appears in lates patch of PTW.

DaveMcW
Sep 27, 2004, 04:42 PM
If you pop a settler in c3c and already have one, is it a 'nothing' or a re-roll?

player1 fanatic
Sep 28, 2004, 12:28 AM
It's nothing.
(that why you can get nothing even with Exp civs)

Dragonlord
Sep 28, 2004, 01:35 AM
You are reading correctly.

I also remember getting 'this village has been abandoned' quite often on the higher levels, but I have not seen one in a long time. The rules must have changed. I dont know when, but I guessed the probabilities was the same for c3c.

Which verison are you playing?

I'm playing Conquests 1.22. I'm not sure when I had the last empty village, though - could have been in an earlier version.

It could also be from popping a settler when you already have one, as player1fanatic says..

Oystein
Sep 28, 2004, 03:02 AM
If you pop a settler in c3c and already have one, is it a 'nothing' or a re-roll?C3C uses re-roll, at least latest patch.

player1 fanatic
Sep 28, 2004, 06:51 AM
C3C uses re-roll, at least latest patch.

didn't know about that

boogaboo
Sep 28, 2004, 02:53 PM
If I understand correctly, then settlers could be found at Sid if you are expansionist??

EDIT : I'm trying to pop out settlers on 3C3 deity with Aztec (non-exp), and about 50 tries now I haven't succeeded... perhaps this is really not an updated table.. :confused:

Oystein
Sep 28, 2004, 05:05 PM
If I understand correctly, then settlers could be found at Sid if you are expansionist??

EDIT : I'm trying to pop out settlers on 3C3 deity with Aztec (non-exp), and about 50 tries now I haven't succeeded... perhaps this is really not an updated table.. :confused:You are reading wrong somehow.
None-exp civs at deity will only get gold, map, warriors and barbs. The same for exp. civ at sid except you will not get barbs.

boogaboo
Sep 28, 2004, 06:14 PM
Srry, I looked at it the wrong way..
I go with zulu in mind.

Mad2rix
Jan 03, 2005, 07:08 PM
What if someone were to add more difficulty levels from Civ3ConquestsEdit.exe? I don't think goodies huts would ever give you anything but 100% barbarians or deserted huts if non-expansionists.

Pfeffersack
Jan 05, 2005, 05:00 AM
What if someone were to add more difficulty levels from Civ3ConquestsEdit.exe? I don't think goodies huts would ever give you anything but 100% barbarians or deserted huts if non-expansionists.

I guess it depends on if you simply add those level(s) beyond Sid or if you try to fit them in between to existing easier levels (which seems to be possible, read that on the Apolyton University forum)

punkbass2000
Jan 05, 2005, 06:19 AM
Really?! You should join us! AU AU!

morchuflex
Jan 27, 2005, 02:30 AM
Cities? :eek:

You can get cities from goody huts? :confused:
I've been playing Civ3 for a year, about 4 hrs a day, and it has never happened to me. Settlers, occasionnally, but cities: never! How is this possible?

punkbass2000
Jan 27, 2005, 06:02 AM
...the same way anything else is possible from a good a hut. 'An advanced tribe joins your nation' or something like that. You get a city on the spot, as opposed to a mobile Settler.

thetrooper
Jan 27, 2005, 06:07 AM
That was the case back in PTW, the last time I played expansionist (1.5 years ago). Founding the city on-the-spot was the very reason I lost interest in expansionists.

morchuflex
Jan 27, 2005, 10:26 AM
...the same way anything else is possible from a good a hut. 'An advanced tribe joins your nation' or something like that. You get a city on the spot, as opposed to a mobile Settler.
I understand... I just find it strange that it has never happened to me in maybe a hundred starts with barbarians "on".

Paul#42
Feb 25, 2005, 05:21 AM
You are reading wrong somehow.
None-exp civs at deity will only get gold, map, warriors and barbs. The same for exp. civ at sid except you will not get barbs.

Just checked this article as preparation for approaching Cotm 10 :rolleyes:

And how about popping a settler on SID with a non-exp. civ (like lahore did in his "homage to the jaguar warrior")? :eek:

Only possible when two huts are popped in the same turn?
This fails to be explained by the table, right?

EDIT: Just realized lahore was plaing Ptw on deity. Sorry for spamming... :blush:

microbe
Mar 24, 2005, 09:01 PM
Settler:
--Player must not have a settler (active or in production) or any unit with the Settle AI strategy.
--Player must have less cities than (TotalCities / NumActivePlayers).


This article doesn't discuss "popping city" from hut. The above rule at most only applies to settlers.

You CAN pop a city when you have a settler. In fact, here is a save (deity, C3C 1.22) that you can pop a settler then a city. First use the warrior (popped from a previous hut!) to pop a settler, and the scout go two tiles NW to pop a city.

Happy popping!

SAVE (http://www.civfanatics.net/uploads9/2Settlers.zip)

mikezang
Mar 31, 2005, 07:09 PM
I am sorry that I don't know how to use that excel file, does anyone explain for me?
I mean how can I know the Probability when in play?

Oystein
Apr 02, 2005, 02:26 AM
You really dont need the excel file (I kind of regret that I put it in this article). You can just use the table (The picture). Just remember that if you get something illegal (Setler when you alredy have one walking around) there is a reroll.

But if you want to use the file. Fill in the correct values in column B. B1 should be 1 if you are expansonist, 0 otherwise. Set city to 1 if you can get a city (That is, you are not to close to another city, and you are not on mountain or in swamp.), 0 otherwise. And so on. Now the probability will be in the column for your difficult level. (upper table)

dalgo
May 25, 2005, 07:26 PM
Regarding Technology - are there any rules on which Technology you will get from a goody hut (apart from it being ancient times).

DBear
May 25, 2005, 07:51 PM
This has clarified things. I started a succession game Pred02 as the Portugese on emperor and the first goody popped gave us a village. I was quite surprised, as I didn't think that was possible on emperor.

TimBentley
Aug 27, 2005, 08:05 PM
Some more conditions for things from goody huts:

Mercenaries(skilled warrior):
Player must be in Ancient Times.

City:
Player must have at least 1 city.
Player must have equal to or less cities than (TotalCities / NumActivePlayers).
Player must not have a city within a 3-tile radius
There must not be a city within a 2-tile radius
Of course, the obvious Tile must not be on a mountain, marsh, or volcano.

killercane
Aug 30, 2005, 07:18 PM
[QUOTE=Oystein]
Settler:
--Player must not have a settler (active or in production) or any unit with the Settle AI strategy.
--Player must have less cities than (TotalCities / NumActivePlayers).
QUOTE]

This should be EQUAL TO or less than (Totalcities/Num ActivePlayers). This is why a settler at 3950 BC on Chieftain can be had pretty easily, at least in C3C.

Esox
Sep 21, 2005, 01:37 PM
This is my first post after a dozen or so games. This thread has been really helpful when moving up in levels.

Quick question: while of course the Expansionist trait makes a difference, does it matter which unit actually pops the hut? I mean, is the likelihood of each result the same whether you have a scout, warrior or any other unit pop the hut?
I haven't seen anything about that either here or in my game "manual", and since I'm starting a deity game (Inca) I figure I could use every edge possible.

TimBentley
Sep 21, 2005, 03:19 PM
Welcome to (posting at, at least) CFC!

The unit doesn't matter, unless you're a non-expansionist using an explorer or conquistador (not very likely, obviously).

General_W
Sep 29, 2005, 12:18 PM
This article has been very helpful! Thanks Oystein.
This Question is a little off topic but I'm not sure where else I'd post it...

Has anyone figured out the odds of what the Barbarians will take/destroy when they Sack a city?

Seems like they mostly take gold but sometimes they destroy production or kill some of the citizenry. I've looked through the forums, but can't seem to find anything on this.

Thanks for any help!

morchuflex
Oct 01, 2005, 01:54 AM
Very interesting topic. But, hey, I have one more question!

So you're saying that to pop a settler, you mustn't have any, even in production.
But at which time does the computer check that? 1. Just when you enter the goody hut, or 2. at the beginning of the turn?
If 1. is correct, then, if you have no settlers but have some in production, what you need to do is change production in any city that's building a settler, pop the hut, and change production back... Kinda boring, and it sounds like an exploit too.
What do you make of that?

TimBentley
Oct 01, 2005, 08:12 AM
#1 is correct; you just need to temporarily switch production.

vmxa
Oct 01, 2005, 11:04 AM
Not boring as you will have very few occasions to do it. Exploit, hard to call, maybe, but not a big one. It does not mean you will get a settler, only that you coudl not otherwise.

It is not usefull at Sid as you can't get a settler anyway.

carmen510
Apr 01, 2006, 12:51 PM
Not trying to bump an old thread, but I got Space Flight in Modern Times with a goody hut in Conquests

AutomatedTeller
Apr 04, 2006, 03:02 PM
The unit does matter, to a degree. You cant' get barbarians if you pop the hut with a settler making a city.

thetrooper
Apr 05, 2006, 05:24 AM
Not trying to bump an old thread, but I got Space Flight in Modern Times with a goody hut in Conquests

:dubious:

You're just joking...

I'm pretty certain that you can't get any free techs from goody huts beyond the first era.

TimBentley
Apr 05, 2006, 06:36 AM
At one point (debug game, expansionist civ) in the middle ages+, I got 5+ maps from goody huts on resources in a row, so....

carmen510
Apr 05, 2006, 02:41 PM
I acually did.............. Wait, whoops! It was Civ3 regular.

lemming0815
Jun 10, 2006, 02:46 AM
First to say: great summary! :goodjob:

But I've got one question left:

Barbarians:
[...]
--The unit popping the hut must not have the "All Terrain As Roads" ability.Does this really matter? I've never realized these effect myself.

Sorry for bumping an old thread, but I'm working on the german Civilization Wiki (http://civ.tiggerdeluxe.com/wiki/index.php). ;)

JamesCivFan
Aug 08, 2010, 04:00 AM
I will bump this thread too even though it's very old, to ask a simple question..If someone wanted to change these probabilities, how would he do it in the editor?? (for example: I want to make it so u have a probability on getting a settler on Sid). Could anyone give me a step by step "how to do"? (I have C3C v 1.22)

vmxa
Aug 08, 2010, 08:04 AM
I do not see any place in the editor for it. Maybe check with the creation forum.

JamesCivFan
Aug 08, 2010, 08:13 AM
Where exactly?? (sorry but i am a total newbie in these fora. So can you give me a link (if any?). Otherwise i will make a thread. Thanks in advance

vmxa
Aug 08, 2010, 11:10 AM
http://forums.civfanatics.com/forumdisplay.php?f=46

make a thread and ask here. If anyone would know, it would be here. I doubt it though, it looks to be hard coded.