SGOTM 14 - Unusual Suspects

kcd_swede said:

But maybe my thinking is colored by the target being Asoka, who generally is not a big unit builder (but can be a tech monster if left alone). However, I'm not sure how that changes with random personalities. He could be a Monte, for all we know.

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Either Asoka or Ragnar is actually Tokugawa in disguise.

kcd_swede said:

BTW: Ghenghi favors Police State, Ragnar Hereditary Rule, and Asoka USuff, if my reference chart is accurate.

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This is scrambled by the random personalities.

OK, here is another test without Hanging Gardens. In 525BC, two libraries are complete, one partial, one just started. Most cities have granaries. Lots of food, lots of whipping potential. Exploring workboat from Atlanta. One turn to the first great person, 50/50 engineer or scientist. Construction in 7 turns, Horseback Riding in 6 more, total research 13 turns using 182 saved gold. Total research time will go down 2-3 turns as more libraries come online and commerce increases.

The plan:


The 525 BC test game save file.

Looks like a good plan. What's everyone else think? We don't actually commit to warring until we switch to constr/hbr, but this puts us in position to do so if it still looks good.

We should be prepared to defend against Ragnar advancing along our spoke.
This probably means we want to bring copper on line before launching invasion.
I'm OK with latest plan.

We will have two fog busting warriors and an archer on the spoke, plus our team of two exploring archers. Creating all this infrastructure and founding Chicago / Atlanta takes us to 10-20% break even research. If we decide to do so, we can have Boston create a settler and have our last units produced include an axe, but we definitely can't afford the third settler during my turn set.

What do people think about the Atlanta exploring workboat? Should we do that, or should I instead bring a granary+library on line faster? Any other comments or suggested improvements to the plan? I can play tonight, in about 12 hours, if people are willing.

I really worry that this is not the optimal way to go, but I don't have solid numbers to back it up and don't want to stall the game. I can probably play a test to 525BC tonight for a comparison. If y'all don't want to wait then let me try to tweak the plan a little:

Unless we think there's a highish probability of getting caught with a useless aqueduct in NY then going for the Hanging Gardens should be a good move. The 210-hammers-worth of whipping potential is only part of the gain--until we whip those bodies away they'll be productive members of society, paying taxes (commerce), farming (food), building cars (hammers), and filing patents (beakers). Put a 2-pop whip toward the aqueduct to speed things along--the sooner we get the HG the better (since there'll be a big break between our 7th and 8th cities).

Unless the timing doesn't work out, NY should build the workboat for Chicago (silver city). The former has good production while the latter is limited and should concentrate on infrastructure that can only be built in that city.

I would tend to build libraries before granaries unless the city has a lot of extra food to grow back very quickly. If we whip granaries, then we have to wait while the city builds (perhaps whips) a library to run scientists. If we build libraries first, we can immediately run scientists while slow-building granaries. The slow granaries are OK because the food bin will be slow to fill up because we're running sci's. Our near-term goal is to research Construction and HBR ASAP, so we should temporarily delay growth to get more beakers. Once we've got our techs in the bag, our granaries are done and we put the sci's back in the fields. And it's not just when we finish HBR that matters; earlier Construction means we can start building cats sooner.

I'd be much more confident in our war if we had at least a couple axes for defense, but I guess we'll have to wait until the next turnset to take the copper site.

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Clever about using the favorite civics info as clues to the AIs' real identities, kcd. Or are you saying, Chris, that it's not useful?

Edit: Read Chris's latest more carefully. I'm in favor of speeding up the copper settler. A boat from Atlanta is probably a good idea, but perhaps wait for a galley, since barbs will soon become a problem.

I'm happy to wait for further testing, no rush at all. I can do some more testing tonight. Most of our cities have lots of excess food, which is why I think granaries first makes sense.

If New York builds the Chicago workboat, how can it also build the Hanging Gardens quickly?

I don't think kcd actually looked at the favorite civics. In-game, it shows a big question mark for each AI in that spot. His list was the standard assignment, which doesn't apply with random AI personalities.

ChrisShaffer said:

I'm happy to wait for further testing, no rush at all. I can do some more testing tonight. Most of our cities have lots of excess food, which is why I think granaries first makes sense.

If New York builds the Chicago workboat, how can it also build the Hanging Gardens quickly?

I don't think kcd actually looked at the favorite civics. In-game, it shows a big question mark for each AI in that spot. His list was the standard assignment, which doesn't apply with random AI personalities.

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Yeah, after your explanation, I looked at the save and saw the same thing. Do we eventually get to find out what civic turns them on? Or does none?

I think we don't need HG. Maybe its a little boost in hammers, but not as useful as the stuff we miss out on by doing it maybe.

Anyhow, we don't need axes. WE's can take care of anything except a little weak on spears. An archer on a hill or forest would defend against a spear before a WE would. (8 vs 8 spear vs elephant or 4 vs 4.5 spear vs archer with +50% terrain).

We'll probably take copper from Asoka anyhow, before Ragnar has anything near us... its a long way to haul an army along two spokes.

Please do run your test Xcal and see what you can come up with. We're at the cusp of our first war, so its a good time to be careful rather than hurrying turnsets.

BTW, I think the best tech order would be construction then HBR, not the other way around. This lets us be making the catas while waiting for the tech to build WE's. Doing it the other way we have to build everything after construction. And I don't think the number of beakers is different.

kcd_swede said:

Please do run your test Xcal and see what you can come up with. We're at the cusp of our first war, so its a good time to be careful rather than hurrying turnsets.

BTW, I think the best tech order would be construction then HBR, not the other way around. This lets us be making the catas while waiting for the tech to build WE's. Doing it the other way we have to build everything after construction. And I don't think the number of beakers is different.

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OK, I'll work on it tonight. And yes, Const --> HBR. I just meant that it wasn't only the date for HBR that mattered. As you said, earlier Construction helps even if the HBR date comes out the same for early vs late whipping.

Yes, we are agreed that the tech order for war is construction -> horseback riding. I don't think anyone suggested otherwise.

It's also unknown if Asoka and Ragnar are on separate spokes, or even if we have spokes. If it is a hub map, it's totally possible for Asoka and Ragnar to be on the same land mass.

Some comments:

No HG gardens right now, Chris got it right I think with that analysis. We'd be working unimproved tiles with the extra pop anyway and we really have to push hard for research.

Copper can and has to wait, they can't touch us if we get phants and cats soon. We really don't have room for more economic strains.

Random personalities simply switches AI personalities, that's it. One of them is Toku with his favorite civic and all there is to him.

We might want a library in NY before granary (low food), but I'm not sure. We should improve that rice asap.

Also, it's very important to send another exploring work boat at this point to gain more information about the map.

The point with random personalities is that we can't assume Asoka will favor Universal Suffrage or that Ragnar will favor Hereditary Rule, as kcd suggested. Rather, all we know is that one of Ragnar/Asoka is actually Tokugawa and favors Mercantilism.

Regarding the rice, a worker is irrigating it already. It will be finished in 3 turns.

I think it is questionable to send out an exploring workboat on the west coast, since barbarian galleys will show up soon. The earliest Atlanta can get an explorer out is 600 BC, unless we want to send the first workboat in 750 BC and forgo netting the seafood for Atlanta six turns. And then it takes the workboat 6 more turns just to get to the unexplored area.

I definitely agree that copper is too expensive. Our economy is severely strained. The only way we get real research is through scientists and great scientists. A library first in New York is probably warranted. What is our plan for great people? Academy in Washington? Bulbing? Our first great person from Washington is 50/50 engineer/scientist.

ChrisShaffer said:

The point with random personalities is that we can't assume Asoka will favor Universal Suffrage or that Ragnar will favor Hereditary Rule, as kcd suggested. Rather, all we know is that one of Ragnar/Asoka is actually Tokugawa and favors Mercantilism.

Regarding the rice, a worker is irrigating it already. It will be finished in 3 turns.

I think it is questionable to send out an exploring workboat on the west coast, since barbarian galleys will show up soon. The earliest Atlanta can get an explorer out is 600 BC, unless we want to send the first workboat in 750 BC and forgo netting the seafood for Atlanta six turns. And then it takes the workboat 6 more turns just to get to the unexplored area.

I definitely agree that copper is too expensive. Our economy is severely strained. The only way we get real research is through scientists and great scientists. A library first in New York is probably warranted. What is our plan for great people? Academy in Washington? Bulbing? Our first great person from Washington is 50/50 engineer/scientist.

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I've opened the save and I think you've done an excellent job in this difficult situation! I'm happy with the plan as it is. Maybe we could make some small tweaking and improvements, but this is already good to go imo.

Academy in Washington if we get the GS. If we get the GE...well, we'll think about it then.

I do want to check for tweaks, like skipping the Atlanta workboat, and going with a library first in New York. I also want to give Xc enough time to explore other scenarios. I'll do some more testing and post a revised version of my plan, with exact projections of dates for Construction and Horseback Riding, tonight.

I'm very confused by the test save, which I took from post 647. It starts at T83/800 BC but comparing with the status Chris lists in his post682 plan it looks like it's really T82. The workers' positions also bear no obvious resemblance to what's described. Nor is there any Indian land visible. In any case, I played to what the game said was T94/525BC (which I think might actually be T93/550 BC). I also screwed up some timings, revolting too late (which meant that I couldn't apply a 1-pop whip to the NY aqueduct, which delayed the HG by a turn. Anyhoo, the ending status (save attached) had:

• 35bpt @35% breakeven with 32 gold in the bank.
• A Gt Sci was just born. If we make a Wash academy that would boost bpt by 8.
• Without the academy, we'd have Construction (currently 376/546--I missed 6 beakers with the late revolution) in 5 turns and HBR in about 7.
• I'd only settled the silver site and didn't have any workers attending to it because 3 workers were working on NY, but our cities were size 8,4,7,3,4,1. The Philly settler was enroute to clams/crabs.
• I did not whip anything, but wanted to do a little whipping to speed the aqueduct --> HG.
• HG will be finished in 2 turns (1T if I'd done things correctly).
• Wash got its library on T85. Boston is also running scientists.

Is that anywhere close to Chris's test results (keeping in mind that I might have been short 1 turn?)

[Edit: Grrr. Just looked at Chris's 525BC test game save and we did not play with the same file. Sorry, I took the file from the latest post I could find, #647. If Chris can respond quickly I might be able to try again tonight.]

Many apologies, I linked to the wrong file. Here is the real 825BC test game save file.

OK, I tested again, skipping the exploring workboat in Atlanta and adjusting a bit here and there. Here is the plan I used:



At the 525BC sailing save, where I would stop my turn set, comparative statistics are:

• 41bpt @ 20% with 164 gold in bank
• 5 workers (Boston made one)
• Chicago and Seattle founded
• Great person in 1 turn, 50/50 engineer/scientist
• Population 8, 5, 5, 3, 3, 1, 1
• Granaries in Washington, New York, Boston, Philadelphia and Atlanta
• Monuments in Chicago and Seattle
• Libraries in Washington and New York
• Chicago pig pasture

At the 325BC horseback riding save, I have the above plus:

• 99bpt at 20% with 4 gold in bank
• Construction on turn 98, 425BC and Horseback Riding on turn 102, 325BC
• Second great person in 5 turns
• Population 9, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1
• Libraries in Boston, Philadelphia and Atlanta
• 2 galleys, with a third soon
• 3 military units under construction
• A bunch of scientists who could be producing hammers instead
• A bunch of population to whip for military units, with very little existing whip unhappiness
• A road to the culture bridge in Seattle
• Chicago silver road/mine
• 2 turns to the border pop in Seattle to enable the culture bridge

Thanks, Chris, I found it myself. Saved at T94/525BC attached. I again messed up on NY aqueduct whipping (didn't do it) but will have HG in 2 more turns. Status:

• 30 bpt @25%, 26 gold in bank
• Just got a Great Sci. An academy would yield 10.5 more bpt.
• I did Sailing early to get trade routes--think it's a good idea. Construction @368/546, done in 5 at breakeven. HBR in something less than 11.
• 2 new cities founded. (I worked the Chicago silver mine until pigs were done.)
• Wash has or almost will a granary. No others.
• Wash has a lib, Boston will have one soon.
• Pops are 7,4,4,4,3,4,1,1 (total 3124), with 1 more each in 2 turns from HG = 3831.
• 5 workers

Tired. Discuss tomorrow.

Xcalibrator said:

Pops are 7,4,4,4,3,4,1,1 (total 31), with 1 more each in 2 turns from HG = 38.

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I count 7,4,4,3,4,1,1 for a total of 24. I think you slipped an extra 4 in there and then added another 3 to the total!



In regard to the trade routes, they only gain 2 (or 3?) beakers per turn, assuming we have no trade routes with AI. In my saves, I got Sailing entirely from scientists, and only switched to 100% research after two libraries were built. If AI trade routes are possible, then getting Sailing faster makes sense.

My quick comparison of your 525BC save and mine:

• Population: Xc 24 -> 31 with 0 granaries. Chris 26 with 5 granaries.
• Beakers: Xc 30bpt with 1 library. Chris 41bpt with 2 libraries.
• Research: Xc construction t99, hbr 106. Chris construction t98, hbr t102
• Seattle: Xc just founded, monument in 13, border pop in 23, workers far away. Chris monument complete, border pop in 10, worker on site.

There may be other things to compare, but imho my save is significantly superior, both for war (faster tech, granaries for whipping military) and for peace (lots more infrastructure). Perhaps you should play yours farther to see how the extra 7 population help your scenario. Unfortunately, half of them will be working unimproved tiles, and you're starting 2 population behind me to begin with.

I agree with Yamps, the plan looks ready to go. You have the green light from me. Of course, you can (and maybe should, since technically we need another green to have a quorum) wait for Xcal to agree; and remember a green light doesn't mean you must play, it means you are ok to play when you feel ready. A 24hr wait before playing migh be useful to give Steelhorse, Deckhand, and Jovan a fair chance to make any comments.

Good luck!