SGOTM 18 - Plastic Ducks

Doshin · Oct 2, 2013

By "we'll be able to finish Genghis off before T100" I mean that we could capture the two western cities in this screenshot at approximately that date, make peace, and take HBR. It is probably best not to go straight to Machinery, because Elephants will do the job of Xbows and other techs are more pressing (Aesthetics line, IMO). I built too few Melee units prior to Construction in my test, and 100+ :hammers:

were just going to waste in pre-built Settlers and Workers. But this was a run to get a feel for macro rather than micro.

Construction, unlike HBR, is not ideal trade bait, since we cannot do a 2 for 1 deal with Mathematics. Conversely, it is very likely that GK will research HBR, so HBR is not an ideal tech for us to research ourselves (we can get it for free).

Regarding GK declaring war:

Spoiler :

Construction will be researched ~T76.

I tried to test the HBR beeline twice, but neither of my attempts were very good. Since I didn't want to misrepresent the strategy, and I didn't want to reduplicate the efforts of others without cause, I thought it would be better for one of those advocating the strategy to play it out.

Dubioza · Oct 2, 2013

I DoW'd him in T78 actually and that was the turn he started plotting. It might be that you need ~1 hour to test those 50 turns, I needed 2:30 for 36 turns and I was playing fast.

Spoiler :

EDIT:

So I'm heading to replay from T78. I did this then:

Spoiler :

Now, I played 1 turn without DoW'ing him and here he is:

Spoiler :

I wander who he's going to attack?

I had slider on 0% until ~300 banked gold, then HbR, Cur, Aesth and just now half way through Lit.

Spoiler :

In test saves v18 and higher I deleted GK's HbR from techs and he still is going for it - so he'll have his UU fast. I guess MM's capitol is closer to GK's than our is, but our other cities are closer to GK then MM's. That has to do something with DoW as well.

Anyhow, I'll try to replay from T78, here are saves if anyone else wants to. If you'd rather try from beginning, please use save v18 or higher, I bet you have 75% chances of being DoW'd by GK before T80.

kossin · Oct 2, 2013

Warring skills aside, we should look at the difference of lost hammers in carrying out the war vs. getting the cities earlier.

I don't think we can do much better (even with greatest plan ever) than the options already presented - we have to deal with RNG. It could be worse, it could be better.

Doshin: 4 catas+1 archer+2 swords+1 axe+1 spear = 375H
Dubioza: 9 HAs+1 chariot = 480H + presumable another ~3 HAs for Karakorum (to represent equal warring development). = ~ 630H
---
-255H

I'm going to assume Dubioza's can capture Karakorum on T90 whereas I'd guess Doshin captured it ~T96.
'Joker' can't be compared in between saves, unfortunately. However, I'll give a ~10 turns lead here.
Beshbalik: ~85 vs. ~92
Turfan: ~94 vs. 101
---
~30 city turns.

The captured cities will probably be rather small due to GK's whipping, so unfortunately pop-turns will not be that much greater.

Let's give 75 extra pop-turns. (~2.5 pop/city)

255/75 = 3.4 yield

i.e. you'd expect about each pop to generate +3 yield for HA rush to come out ahead the hammer game. That's only specials :lol:

Conclusion: HA rush doesn't hit early enough to make up for extra losses. Unless GK builds fewer units.

Addendum: by hitting later, we're also reducing our taxes, capturing more gold, get a free tech, waste fewer hammers thanks to Forges, able to continue warring with a generous 15-cata army (overkill).
Also more workers, maybe more captured buildings.
---
More hammers, more beakers.

Feel free to point out anything I've overlooked too crudely, this is all I could manage in a limited amount of time

BornInCantaloup · Oct 2, 2013

Alright, HA war, T100 test:
(We don't all play very fast, kossin, to me that takes 3 hours)

pics:
How badly we need Hereditary Rule:

Spoiler :

The south. I managed Atlanta and Chicago better and they could contribute at least 2 HAs each:

Spoiler :

The north. Karakorum has its Academy, gpp from N-Y.
Captures went: Karakorum (T84), Turfan, Beshbalik (mistake!), Ning Hsia (should be 3rd), Joker:

Spoiler :

GK settled 1 less city than in Doshin's attempt.

DoW on T75. I failed to lure GK's stack towards Atlanta again.
However, I could trap most of his offensive, mounted force down in Joker.
3 HAs died to a spearman in Beshbalik

We got 2 great generals.

Tech path: HBR, Currency, Code of Laws (complete with capture gold from Karakorum), Metal Casting.

On T78, I had less troops than in my first run. I failed, there.
I didn't bank much gold before going for HBR, either. HBR researched T64 with 80 gold in treasury. With better micro, I've already done T64 with 98 gold. If we bank gold longer, then we may delay the tech by 2-3 turns but we'd get a lot more additional gold.
The thing with HBR on T64 is that only Boston is ready to pump troops. Other cities aren't even close. So a delay doesn't hurt us as much as it may seem.

Last city was captured on T98. Hanging Gardens completed T98 eot.
Moai Statues mostly done in Philadelphia because :dunno:

Infrastructure, units produced, units lost:

Spoiler :

kossin said:
Conclusion: HA rush doesn't hit early enough to make up for extra losses. Unless GK builds fewer units.

Addendum: by hitting later, we're also reducing our taxes, capturing more gold, get a free tech, waste fewer hammers thanks to Forges, able to continue warring with a generous 15-cata army (overkill).
Also more workers, maybe more captured buildings.
---
More hammers, more beakers.

I can't follow your calculations right now but that last part looks right. A selling point to the Construction war is that it gives us easier access to War Elephants... and a useful leftover army for that.
Not sure about HAs not hitting early enough. You may be right. HAs, in any case, certainly suffer higher losses than a melee/siege army.

Dubioza · Oct 2, 2013

I played to T97 (replayed from T78). GK did DoW me next turn. I captured 3 cities, Karakorum @ T93. It could be sooner, but I finished TGLib around T90, HE is almost done, got GA from Music, GS is 3T away...lost GMedic :lol:

and 14 HA's, more then half when defending :cry:

and some @ 92, 98%. :mad:

Spoiler :

kossin · Oct 2, 2013

To me it looks pretty clear at this point:

-similar hammers with Construction and HBR
-more tech with Construction
-more leftover army to continue warring with Construction

If GK decides to attack us, a wall+few spears/archers will deflect most of the attack and leave him weaker for our reply.

Also, Elepult

Doshin · Oct 3, 2013

Thanks, Dubioza and BIC, for playing the HArcher rushes through.

UnforcedError · Oct 3, 2013

Seems like we've changed our minds again

kossin said:
If GK decides to attack us, a wall+few spears/archers will deflect most of the attack and leave him weaker for our reply.

I think it's almost certain that he will attack, so we'll have to set up an early defense line in the Atlanta - Chicago region and queue in a wall to whip it when necessary.

BornInCantaloup · Oct 3, 2013

So... HAs are too costly with about 1000 lost hammers. Losses in a Catapult war are surely less than 500 hammers... and the remaining army is more useful to us.
(I didn't get particularly lucky, even got unlucky, so that part of my test is prolly accurate.)

Currency first will leave us in the best economic situation.
What about:
- Metal Casting first? Takes the longest time to research. Forges only provide 1 happy (not great, given access to HR). +25% prod is ok.
- Construction first? Results in the earliest Catapults. We could have several Barracks done, by the time we research it. Delays Currency by about 15 turns, so 15x6x2=180 :commerce:

but speeds up the war in return.

If we want 4 early Libraries (Atlanta, Phil, N-Y, Wash), then Currency first becomes more attractive.
If we're not rushing, Currency seems like the most "natural" route to follow. Construction... maybe?

EDIT: for clarity: Currency next suits me fine.

kossin · Oct 3, 2013

If we go for Construction right away, are cities ready to switch to war mode?

My feeling:
Especially the new cities which are closest, I think they could use the delay. (see SGOTM13)

MM has a tendency to research MC. By the time he finishes Feudalism, maybe that's his next choice. (Calendar also likely, CoL less so due to his religion).

The 1-happy from forges is negligible since we are likely to whip them anyway.

BornInCantaloup · Oct 3, 2013

T67, we can have Construction and 2 Barracks and 3 Barracks in progress. We can have 5 Barracks by T71.

pic:

Spoiler :

Currency first, however, gives us about 150-200 more :gold:

from traderoutes... and an unknown amount of gold from selling techs and resources.
Currency could considerably speed up all of our next techs. I've seen Mansa offering 200+ gold for Maths...
If we go Currency first, we can very surely have a Library in Atlanta and 5 Barracks by the time we get Construction.

Construction first = 15 turns delay on Currency (roughly).
Currency first = 10 turns delay on Construction (roughly).

Currency first is probably better, I think.

Doshin · Oct 3, 2013

Ok. I am happy we have tested our options and will rejoin.

I have to give a give a talk on Friday, so I'm a little pressed for time. I can be more useful on Friday night and Saturday, but here are some generalities:

Tech route: Currency ----> Construction ----> Monarchy pre-reqs ----> MC/Aesthetics
I'd prefer to head to MC before Aesthetics, unless Mansa goes there first, but if Gandhi opts for the Music path we may need to alter our plans.
I prefer Currency before Construction, because we can still build melee units during this time for defense and attack. We also need to set-up our cities. Going to MC before Construction is too slow, and the Forge , while useful, are not needed to whip Swords and Catapults. Let's launch the attack and then develop backwater cities.
GS#1... actually might be better coming from one of Philly or Boston than NY. NY can stagnate growth very easily by working FP Cottages (+1 per tile) and the Gold or, as a last resort, the PH. Happiness soon becomes a problem in Boston and Philly, and cottaged FPs are excellent tiles, but Philly just has too much food to work these constantly.
GS#1 is high priority if we anticipate retaining our current capital, otherwise it is markedly lower (it only eeds to be in place on the turn we move the Palace).
I would prefer to whip a Worker @size 4 in NY, and a Library again @size 4, rather than growing this to size 6. Two Workers should Cottage two FPs, and then one Worker can move to improve the capital (move 1 tile, cottage a FP, cancel; repeat) while the other sticks around and waits for NY's border to pop.
I favor sharing the Corn north of the Walls, unless you want to move our capital to one of these locations.
3-pop whips are a good means to prevent unhappiness in places like Boston, Philly, and the northern Corn cities running out of control. Only Libraries and Settlers are suitable for 3-pop whips right now.
Markets are very low priority builds.
Short-term wonder priority I would rank as: TGL = high; Parthenon = medium; HG = low; SP = fail gold; SoZ = fail gold if we hook the Ivory up.

My guess is that much of BIC's micro can be adapted to suit a Construction attack. We might also think about the attack plan: one stack or two? North-south or south-north?

In the medium-long term, Workers will be needed to road towards Genghis and in Genghis' land. A Settler will likely be needed to claim the Ivory.

UnforcedError · Oct 3, 2013

Going Currency first is definitely better. Cities can meanwhile finish their infra and build some melee and archers for defense.

Sharing the N corn is out, I'd say. We're much better off settling the iron without wasting time on a monument.

I'd prefer finishing the library in NY and then whip a worker. Also, I'd use NY for our first GS, or if we don't plan to use the RR then maybe Philadelphia.

Agree on adopting BiC's micro until Currency is done.

Dubioza · Oct 3, 2013

I tried HA rush again (from T78) and still can't compete with BiC's attempt. Yesterday I was tired, but now I have no excuse.

Now I lost 24 HA's, again lots of them on defense and quite enough on 90+% odds. Right now at T100 captured his capitol. I agree, losses are and will be big. Too big. I guess GK DoWing or not and going for his capitol first have very different outcomes.

Spoiler :

EDIT: I agree Currency first should be strongest in cata war. So micro is more or less known, we should still try to perfect it (unless I forgot that already is perfect). If we agree on settling 1N of corn and 1NE of iron.

kossin · Oct 3, 2013

@Doshin
Glad you're still onboard

Even though I feel like I'm hanging by the anchor :lol:

BornInCantaloup said:
Construction first = 15 turns delay on Currency (roughly).
Currency first = 10 turns delay on Construction (roughly).

Let's assume:
-Construction first translates into 10 turns faster city captures all around (unlikely given city preparation, I'd say more ~7 turns)
-Currency second translates into 15 turns * 6 cities * 1C/city = 90C (not 180, we won't get enough traderoutes)
-1C ~ 1H

We're probably looking at 4 GK city captures, possibly razing crappy ones.
City-turns = #cities * #of turns active
So we're getting 40 city-turns.
Giving about ~2.5 pop per captured city as an average, that gives 100-pop-turns.
Pop-turn = #city-turns * pop/city

Getting 1 pop to generate ~1H is rather trivial however:

>>>Things that change these calculations:
-Construction right away doesn't translate in 10-turns earlier war IMO. Some cities are too new to be able to contribute this early.
-Size of captured cities. Obviously, we might get a bunch of 1-pop cities.
-Slower to CoL: while 1H~1C, it requires building wealth/research instead of infrastructure. Captured cities will need border pops and granaries initially.
-Hitting earlier means less resistance... both good and bad. We want to train a lvl-4 unit for Heroic Epic. Fewer units mean less losses, possibly snowballing through GK faster.

Ultimately, I think the state of cities determines whether Construction first or Currency is better.

Judging from BiC's attempt, only 2 cities are ready for war mode. Construction is coming in too early for cities' readiness.

UnforcedError · Oct 3, 2013

We could also attempt to play turn by turn then since we seem to be set on Currency. Most of the micro is already done, really, at least up until T60 or so.

Doshin · Oct 3, 2013

Does NY whip a Worker @ size 4 in the current micro?

Dubioza · Oct 3, 2013

Library is next for whip in NY in this micro.

Doshin · Oct 3, 2013

At size 4 or 6?

One other point that was asked with regard to HBR was whether it was worthwhile to delay research, so as to maximize the :science:

boost from Libraries. Currency, at least, should be researched ASAP. The trade routes, trade bait, and access to GPT deals will be more than worth it.

Doshin · Oct 3, 2013

And here is something to cheer our efforts:

Highest score.

Spoiler :

SGOTM 18 - Plastic Ducks

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