The thread for space cadets!

Yeah. The thing is relativity and quantum mechanics has been explaining and predicting our observations since a century ago or so and until now never been proven wrong. That is as proven as you will ever get in physics or any other branch of human knowledge.
 
Right. Both are amazing theories, but unfortunately extremely difficult to combine into one. Which probably indicates their limits.
 
Carried over from the russian news thread.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/o...sian-military-modernization-us-response-pifer



United Launch Alliance wound up using Russia’s engines because they were more advanced and cheaper than what was available in the U.S., Michael Gass, chief executive officer of the joint venture, told senators during the subcommittee hearing on March 5. Those engines are employed in one of two rockets used for military satellite launches.

“We have kind of fallen behind in advanced technology,” Gass said. “When we went to Russia, there were things that they were doing,” he added, that “our textbooks said was impossible.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...b-at-rival-shows-u-s-space-reliance-on-russia

I think everybody in the space industry agree on russian rocket engines being a step ahead of anything else.

TL;DR version:
Russian engines are not the special snowflakes they are made out to be. The Russians engines in question are soviet-era and the Russians are not investing in new ones heavily. American engines are better in several categories and come in more varieties than Russian engines and the Americans are also heavily investing in brand new engines while the Russians stagnate.

Full Version:
Russian rocket engine technology is way overhyped. They do produce some awesome engines but they also produce a lot of crappy ones. There is a massive political backdrop to the above quotes that you have to understand. Absent this political context, you are missing a huge part of the overall story.

Backdrop:

After the USSR dissolved, there was a big push from the political and economic spheres to engage with Russia. On the political side, there was a desire to get Russia 'on our team' by increasing trade links. There was also a massive desire to prevent disgruntled and unemployed Russian rocket scientists from going to work for shifty 3rd world regimes or even terrorist organizations.

On the economic side, there was the desire to buy cheap stuff from Russia while the going was good. These two forces converged and created an atmosphere where buying Russian rocket engines was not only desirable, but encouraged.

Lockheed Martin and Aerojet took the initiative and began buying up very high-performance Russian rocket engines. Lockheed Martin chose the RD-180 engine (which dates to the USSR's space shuttle program) for their Atlas III/V launch vehicles and this launch vehicle/engine combination has proven extremely reliable. Aerojet chose to begin importing NK-33 engines (which were literally produced in the 1960's/70's for the Soviet moon program and then stored in a warehouse) to market them to American rocket builders. Unfortunately, these have proven very unreliable and wound up causing Orbital ATK's Antares launch vehicle to explode several seconds after liftoff.

Fast Forward to the Present Political Climate
There has been over the last decade a growing concern among some US politicians over the importation and use of Russian rocket engines, particularly for US national security launches. They want this use to stop on the grounds that if Russian-American relations continue to deteriorate, the Russians may simply cut off supplies of the engines, which would make launching many spy satellites very difficult.

To that end, year over year, Congress has provided funds to ULA (the successor to Lockheed Martin's space launch business which markets the Atlas V) to study the production of RD-180's in the US (which is allowed per the ULA/Energomash contract) or to design a new American-designed/built engine. ULA has then year over year flushed those funds down the toilet.

Further aggravating the situation, ULA receives about a $1 billion subsidy from the US government every year just to keep their doors open. This made sense when ULA was the only company able to launch US national security payloads but doesn't make sense now that SpaceX can do the same and there are other American launch companies on the cusp of joining the club. So you have essentially a company that not only is propped up by the US government but also wastes funds allocated to enable it to produce an American-made engine to replace their Russian ones.

Eventually, Congress enacted a ban on the further importation of Russian engines for national security launches but allowed ULA to keep their current stockpile of Russian engines for national security launches and also allowed them to continue importing Russian engines for civilian launches (NASA, commercial satellites, etc). ULA hated this and they took a series of highly controversial moves aimed at getting Congress to reverse itself:

1) They shifted engines that had been set aside for national security launches to civilian launches - thus artificially depleting the stockpile that was set to last them until 2019 or so.

2) They flat-out refused to bid on a recent national security launch contract, thus making SpaceX the sole provider of launches for these mission types using a thinly-veiled accounting pretext which has since been dis-proven. Essentially, they were trying to say, "You don't want to play by our rules then fine, we won't play at all". No one in the government wants a single launch provider anymore and ULA is trying to play into those fears by making SpaceX the de facto sole launch provider. This is ironic considering ULA was for over a decade the sole launch provider for national security missions.

3) They have refused to privately fund on a long-term basis the design of a new rocket that is intended to replace their current rockets while simultaneously gobbling up federal funds to design an American rocket engine to replace the RD-180. In other words, they are using taxpayer dollars to build new engines without using any funds to design a new rocket to accept them. They are in essence creating 'orphan' engines without a use.

The end result is that pretty much everyone in Congress who doesn't have ULA in their district is pissed off. However, a Congressman who does have ULA in their district was able to put in a policy rider in a defense spending bill that lifted the Russian engine ban and got it passed (and it had to pass or the government would have shut down). So now there are many people decrying this latest dirty trick and many more people decrying the overall stupidity of the situation.


So when you see people talking about the 'greatness of Russian engines', you have to realize that their statements are as much about justifying the choices of ULA as it is about the engines themselves. Also of note: ULA regularly employees retiring USAF/US Gov personnel who were previously responsible for buying ULA rockets and this practice has severely tilted many among the top brass in the USAF into a pro-ULA stance and has even been the cause of criminal/civil investigations.


To address some specific points -
“We have kind of fallen behind in advanced technology,” Gass said. “When we went to Russia, there were things that they were doing,” he added, that “our textbooks said was impossible.”
This is seriously overblown. What Gass is specifically referring to is the oxygen-rich combustion cycle used by both the RD-180 and NK-33. This means that the engines uses an excess amount of oxygen during combustion which essentially makes the specific impulse (think of it like the MPG rating of a car) higher. The trade off is that oxygen-rich cycles are extremely corrosive and do nasty things to engines. The Russians figured out the metallurgy required to make this work and as a result have produced some very efficient rocket engines.

However great this appears, it's only part of the story. For a lower-stage engine (which the RD-180 and NK-33 are), it is much more important to have a high thrust to weight ratio (more power) than to have a more efficient one. So while the RD-180 is very efficient and is pretty powerful, it's T/W ratio is only decent at about ~80:1. This is nothing special although the engine has proven highly reliable with 66 perfect flights. *Note this last bit for later.

On the other hand, the NK-33, which is also oxygen-rich (and therefore highly efficient) has a much higher T/W ratio of about 137:1. This is the second highest T/W ratio of any engine which is truly awesome until you realize that it has only flown on 5 flights (total of 10 engines) and failed on 1 of them. This gives it a reliability of only 90% (1 engine failed on the 5th flight, not both engines, so 1 out of 10 engines has failed). This is not so great. *Note this last bit for later.

Now let's look at some American counterparts -

The Merlin 1C/D/FT variants have flown on 21 flights, each using 9 engines on the first stage. (I am not counting the Merlin Vacuum variants for the upper stages but you should note that including them would actually make the statistics even better. I am also not counting Falcon 1 flights, which again would make the statistics better.) In those 21 flights, only 1 single Merlin engine failed. So the success to failure ratio is 189:188 for the engines which is over 99% reliable. *Compare this to the 100% and 90% success to failure ratios above.

At the same time, the Merlin has a decent specific impulse (lower than the RD-180 and NK-33 but not terrible) but a much higher T/W ratio of over 180:1 (the FT variant is unpublished but higher than the C/D variants which come in at 180:1). This is the highest T/W ratio of any liquid rocket engine, ever, and as previously noted, much more important than specific impulse for lower stages.

It is also significantly cheaper than both the RD-180 and NK-33, which is one of the primary justifications for ULA/Orbital ATK for using them. (Worthy of note: The launch failure last year of a Falcon 9 was not caused by the engine and the one engine that did fail in an earlier flight was compensated for by the 8 other engines of the Falcon 9)

The RS-68A engine, (produced by Aerojet Rocketdyne) is an advanced Hydrogen/Oxygen rocket engine. It's worth pointing this out because the Russians have not built very many engines of this type and none of their current launch vehicles use them. This engine gets a ridiculously high specific impulse compared to all of the above, though it's T/W ratio is kind of crappy at ~53:1.

The Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME -also by Aerojet Rocketdyne) has an even higher specific impulse than the RS-68A and the same T/W ratio.

Finally, both SpaceX and Blue Origin are now building Methane/Oxygen engines which no one has ever launched with before.

To summarize:
Russian engines are highly efficient but have spotty reliability. There cost advantage is also dubious at best and their T/W ratios are not that impressive on the engines they have that don't explode. Additionally, while the Russians can claim to be the only producers of Oxygen-Rich Combustion Cycle engines, they have not ever produced Hydrogen/Oxygen or Methane/Oxygen engines on a regular basis or for lower stages which the US now has and is developing more of. It should be noted that the Russians do have plans for a Hydrogen/Oxygen engine but it is yet to be flown and the US has had this technology since the 60's when they flew these types of engines on the Saturn V.

I am completely discounting all of the hypergolic engine types that both the US and Russians use as the US isn't importing them from Russia and is such out of consideration. I am also not counting the as-of-lately dismal Russian record of launch failures of Russian vehicles as again, that's outside the context of this conversation.




I wouldn't call Russian equipment outdated. Their SAMs are the best in the world, the new T-14 tank looks pretty state-of-the-art, their planes are generally excellent, and they're hoping to introduce the AK-12 to service (though assault rifle design matters very, very little in the grand scheme of things).

I can't speak to the much more important factors of training, command, intel, and logistics, and Russia certainly has huge stockpiles of outdated equipment, but their new stuff is no joke.

This excelence is visible in the military field too, with russian ICBMs, antiship misilles and particullarly SAMs being top notch and in many cases with ranges, ceiling and speeds way ahead of western ones. West has yet to build something as the SA-21 system.

In other fields though i have the feeling they continue lacking respect western counterparts. For instance air warfare. Russian aircraft being awesome and all, the important thing today is information. Detect and not to be detected. With current weapons once you are detected you are mostly toast. (i know i know they thought the same in vietnam, but now it is true) And it is not all about stealth but the whole scenery awareness thing. Sensors, to say it in a word. So in case of a war in the air i would root for the rusky planes but would put all my money in the western equiped side.

Their SAMs are great but I wouldn't say they are the best in the world. They are also severely behind on cruise missile and smart bomb technology which I would argue are much more important in any conceivable war today because let's face it, there aren't many countries that both have decent air forces that are realistically going to go to war.

Their jets are also very old and in addition to lacking stealth, lack the kind of sophisticated electronics that western jets have. As with smart bombs and cruise missiles, I would argue that the electronics in modern aircraft are even more important than the aircraft themselves as they effectively multiply the utility of the aircraft they have. The T-14 tank is yet to be massed produced and for all we know, it is simply catching up to where western tanks now are technologically. Again, it's the electronics in western tanks that makes them much more effective, not bigger guns or thicker armor.




Disclosure:
I'm not anti-Russian space or military hardware. I deeply respect the systems that they have. But in particular when it comes to their space hardware, there is a lot of misconceptions that westerners have for them.
 
And for the record: I think the RD-180 is a terrific engine. I'm not anti-Russian, just wanted to clarify some things!
 
Right. Both are amazing theories, but unfortunately extremely difficult to combine into one. Which probably indicates their limits.
Limited in scope, yes. Not necesarily wrong. Each one works flawlessly in its own field. Both being different parts of a bigger thing, or different aspects of the same thing. Biggest brains are working on it.
 
@hobbsyoyo
My message in that thread was a reply to specific remarks, that Russia "doesn't have high-end stuff", and that it produces "lots and lots of outdated equipment". That's not the case as far as I know.

But thank you for extensive response, I may be address some of your points later.
 
Actually, yeah Russian SAMs are probably the best in the world.
To find somebody admitting something in internet is a pretty rare phenomenom. Kudos to you hobbsyoyo. ;)

I think such high quality in russians SAMs particularly in the big long range models is a byproduct of his relative inferiority in other fields. They know what in case of an open war against a western power his aircraft would be in disventage, not because his planes are old or lack performance, but because the less advanced avionics and weapons (and lately because a relative lack of raw numbers), so they have invested more resources in the field they excels the most, and chossen a more deffensive doctrine.

Same with surface ships. In an one to one combat, there is not western equivalent to a Moskva missile cruiser. That thing is a monster armed with huge supersonic antiship missiles way more powerfull than the tiny and weak Harpoons equiping its western counterparts. Cant USA for instance do it better? Sure they could, but dont need it, since they have his huge naval air power and his AEGIS deffense system to protect his carriers of the russians monster. So it is all down to different doctrines.
 
@hobbsyoyo
My message in that thread was a reply to specific remarks, that Russia "doesn't have high-end stuff", and that it produces "lots and lots of outdated equipment". That's not the case as far as I know.

But thank you for extensive response, I may be address some of your points later.
Yeah, I don't mean to take anyone out of context and I will fully admit I vastly oversimplified the bits about no high end stuff and outdated equipment.

And it should be noted I wasn't addressing you as much as the person you quoted. Things like that quote get picked up in the press nearly absent of the background from which they are coming from which leaves the general public with a poor understanding of what is going on.

To find somebody admitting something in internet is a pretty rare phenomenom. Kudos to you hobbsyoyo. ;)

I think such high quality in russians SAMs particularly in the big long range models is a byproduct of his relative inferiority in other fields. They know what in case of an open war against a western power his aircraft would be in disventage (not because his planes are old or lack percormance, but because the less advanced avionics and weapons and lately because a relative lack of raw numbers).

Same with surface ships. In an one to one combat, there is not western equivalent to a Moskva missile cruiser. That thing is a monster armed with huge supersonic antiship missiles way more powerfull than the tiny and weak Harpoons equiping tbe western counterparts. Cant USA for instance do it better? Sure the could, but dont need it, since they have his huge naval air power and his AEGIS deffense system to protect his carriers of the russians monster. So it is all down to different doctrines.

Thanks, I try! And I fully agree with everything else - none of which takes away from the fact that Russia does have some awesome military gear. It just comes from a different background and addresses different needs so a lot of times 1:1 comparisons are hard to make. This is exactly why I went to so much trouble to talk about Russian rocket engines. It's not that they are terrible, nor are they the best in the world; it's far more complicated than that. But journalists pick up the fast and easy quotes and run with them.
 
About rocket engines my assertion was mostly based precisely in seeing US companies with all the money and industrial power they have at his disposal at home going out to buy russian rockets and not the other way around. Still i have to read more in deep that textwall of you, but it seems you know a couple of things more about he topic than me anyway.
 
seeing US companies with all the money and industrial power they have at his disposal at home going out to buy russian rockets and not the other way around

The US is capitalist, the Russians, not so much. I very much doubt the national Russian space agency and its suppliers (which have all been consolidated and nationalized) are allowed to buy US rocket engines even if they wanted to. And the US companies that began buying Russian engines were very much encouraged to do so by the US government to keep Russian rocket scientists employed and not plying their trade in Iraq et al. Technical and economic considerations came into the decision to buy the Russian engines, for sure, but it's not as if the engines themselves are the end-all-be-all they are commonly made out to be. They were very cheap at the time, but now they are losing even that relative advantage.
 
For a decade, no one even noted or cared that there were American rockets using Russian engines except maybe to point out the irony of the situation. It was only when relations between the two countries soured did people begin to become uneasy with the situation and that's when the two camps emerged. One camp says 'NEVER BUY RUSSIAN' and the other says 'RUSSIAN IS THE BEST'. They're both partly right and both partly wrong but the details get lost in translation and at no point does anyone but ultra rocket nerds like me really care about the technical details of the engines themselves; but everyone picks up on the slogans.
 
I'm reading the same rumors - the press is all but declaring they have found gravitational waves.

Given how hard it has proven to detect any waves, how long do you think it will take to translate this experiment into a practical observation technique and how expensive do you think that effort will be? I would guess it would cost something like the LHC (and be of similar size) but I have no idea.

That depends on what exactly you want to observe. In a sense, the first detection is already a practical observation, because it is also the first detection of a merger of two black holes, and black holes of this particular size class had not been detected before. Anything that detects something we did not detect in any other way is practical from my point of view.

What is missing so far, is the ability to exactly pinpoint the source. Unfortunately, VIRGO was offline on that particular date (the upgraded version is expected to make first measurements later this year). So there were only two detectors, which is enough to put a limit to the places the signal could have came from, but that is still quite a large area of the sky. With a third detector, locating the source should be much more accurate.

Even better accuracy would be gained by more detectors, like the one planned in India. Detectors of this size and sensitivity are an order of magnitude smaller and cheaper than the LHC, but you need several of them.

There are some upgrades that could be done fairly cheaply (at least on the LHC scale) like using quantum states for probing to enhance the sensitivity. This would broaden the class of things that could be detected.

Then the ESA plans to put a gravitational wave detector in space with eLISA. There you could have a really long arm length for the interferometer and detect things that the ground-based observatories will not detect anytime soon. That is supposed to launch in 20 years, but I am not sure, anybody knows how much it will cost. I would guess it is on the LHC scale, though.
 
Just a few additional points and thoughts about military equipment.

They are also severely behind on cruise missile and smart bomb technology which I would argue are much more important in any conceivable war today because let's face it, there aren't many countries that both have decent air forces that are realistically going to go to war.
I don't have enough expertise to compare NATO and Soviet/Russian cruise missile tech, but can add a bit to what you said.
USSR for some reason didn't develop conventional anti-ground cruise missiles (or at least didn't produce them in sizeable amounts), only tactical nuclear ones. But there were pretty advanced anti-ship missiles, like this supersonic monster which allegedly is able to sink medium-sized ship due to its kinetic energy only:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-700_Granit
Or, alternatively, can detonate half-megaton warhead to take out carrier or a group of ships.

And very recent development, which in its ground attack version was demonstrated in Syria last November, Kalibr missile
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M-54_Klub
Its feature is ability to be deployed on small-sized ships, which is (correct me if I'm wrong) a comparative advantage over NATO ship-based cruise missiles.

I would argue that the electronics in modern aircraft are even more important than the aircraft themselves as they effectively multiply the utility of the aircraft they have. The T-14 tank is yet to be massed produced and for all we know, it is simply catching up to where western tanks now are technologically. Again, it's the electronics in western tanks that makes them much more effective, not bigger guns or thicker armor.
Electronics is very important, right. The thing here is that mass produced electronic chips commonly available on the market, can often be used in military equipment too. When Russia got access to foreign technologies in 90-s, it was able to largely close the gap, and many electronic components can be simply bought where they are produced in Asia.
Like Lev Andropov said, before fixing American equipment with a wrench, "Everything is made in Taiwan!" :)

As for tanks, from what I read, T-90 is not perfect, but generally a close match to modern Western tanks. About Armata, we don't know much about it yet, except it has completely revamped design (not a deep upgrade of a previous version, like T-90). And if this design is indeed as good as it suppose to be, tank will be far more advanced than T-90.

Same with surface ships. In an one to one combat, there is not western equivalent to a Moskva missile cruiser. That thing is a monster armed with huge supersonic antiship missiles way more powerfull than the tiny and weak Harpoons equiping its western counterparts.
Moskva is awesome (particularly, in how it looks), but if you refer to it as a monster, you probably confuse it with Kirov airship Kirov-class battlecruiser. Which has more than twice bigger displacement and armed with 20 Granit missiles which I described above.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirov-class_battlecruiser
 
For a decade, no one even noted or cared that there were American rockets using Russian engines except maybe to point out the irony of the situation. It was only when relations between the two countries soured did people begin to become uneasy with the situation and that's when the two camps emerged. One camp says 'NEVER BUY RUSSIAN' and the other says 'RUSSIAN IS THE BEST'. They're both partly right and both partly wrong but the details get lost in translation and at no point does anyone but ultra rocket nerds like me really care about the technical details of the engines themselves; but everyone picks up on the slogans.

didn't they see the end of 2010?
 
Wondering if we should move all this military talk to the Military Talk thread. It would fit better there. But in the meantime:

Actually, yeah Russian SAMs are probably the best in the world.

Russian SAMs are probably so good because, in addition to decades of experience in making good rockets, the Russians have doctrine that places a high value on SAMs, whereas NATO militaries tend to expect aircraft to keep the skies clear.

I can't say much about the T-14, other than that it looks promising. It's smaller and lighter than many other MBTs today, though weight usually increases by a lot over a vehicle's service life with additions to armor, weapons, engines, and so on. As for its armor, it's highly classified like pretty much all modern MBT armor, so we civilians can't compare modern tanks' armor, really.

I'm just wondering how the hell one is supposed to kill a modern tank equipped with the latest Active Protection Systems (APS), ERA, and armor. The Trophy APS is great against most explosive projectiles, but is of little use against APFSDS rounds or the RPG-30, so now the Israelis are adding the Iron Fist system to defeat those. The Quick Kill system, if it is selected for use by the US, seems like Iron Fist. From what I can gather on the Russian Afghanit system, it has both small-caliber and large-caliber tubes to defeat various threats, though it seems that there are only five large tubes and they're are only mounted on the turret's frontal arc. Even so, if tanks are equipped with systems that can shoot down incoming missiles, RPGs, artillery shells, and tank shells, and if tanks have enough armor to shrug off autocannon fire and most mines, it becomes increasingly difficult to figure out how to knock them out. What do you do about them?
 
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