SGOTM 07 - Smurkz

Ok, I've done the maths, and we should definitely go for Pacifism. Comparing 50 to 75 GPPpt, and starting at the next GP coming at 500, it only takes 30 turns to get to a state where the 75 has generated +1 GP. After 100 turns that's +2 and after ~200 turns it's +3. I was expecting a lessening of the effect later on, when the cost of the next GP was that much higher, but since the difference between costs is still the same then the slower can never start catching up - it just takes longer to get to an extra +1, but the difference will never decrease.

If we get a GE or GA, we'll have to stop and consider at that point. Right now we have no need for anything but GSs...
 
We could definitely use a GE for the UN, and a GA could help bulb MM if we like, but in either case we'd want them as late as possible.

At size 15 we have room for 5 citizen scientists (+2 from the GLib) at +0 fpt while working all four food tiles, furs, both (upgraded) cottages, and three coastal tiles (10 tiles total).
 
What are we going to do if we get the UN and find out we can't win the election? Is it right to put 100% of our energy into getting to Mass Media as fast as possible?

Maybe we should chop down that last plains-hill forest and mine it? That would allow us to work three mined hills, stone and marble instead of the scientists, if we need to switch gears and build an army or some such.
 
What are we going to do if we get the UN and find out we can't win the election? Is it right to put 100% of our energy into getting to Mass Media as fast as possible?
No, I don't think it is. In particular, once we get to Astronomy I see no reason to continue directly to Scientific Method, since that would obsolete the GLib, depriving us of +24 GPPpt and +36 bpt. I want to make quick contact with our overseas soon-to-be-friends, to get a better assessment as to what it would require of us to make enough friends.

On that note, we should build a galley or two some time soon, for immediate upgrade to Caravels once Optics comes around. Now would also be the time to decide if we want to build a Monastery and a few missionaries to go with those ships.

Maybe we should chop down that last plains-hill forest and mine it? That would allow us to work three mined hills, stone and marble instead of the scientists, if we need to switch gears and build an army or some such.
I've considered that too, as well as cutting down some other grass forest in favor of a cottage. The problem, of course, is health. Every two forests we cut down mean -1 health. Our current cap (after Harbor) is 15, chopping two forests and building an Aqueduct would bring that up to 16. Unless we can trade for overseas Granary resources, that seems to be the best we could possibly do in a long long time. But perhaps size 16 with one more cottage and/or mine is better than size 17 without them? I would think so.
 
Gah, I've totally forgotten that Monasteries give +10% research. In our situation, or at least the situation we will soon be in, that's not a lot. But it could have been useful for a while, and it's a little extra anyway, something like +10 bpt net. I think we should build one pretty soon. It also goes obsolete with SciMeth though.
 
Health-wise we can support 18 with aqueduct and harbor and just our own resources. One less if we build a forge, and another one less if we chop two forests. I don't see any other good health bonusses in the near future, except possibly by overseas trade.

Tiles to work: at least we can set 12 citizens to work the two crabs, sheep, deer, furs, plains cottage, grass cottage, 5 scientists or mined hills or quarried hills, for a total of 0 food surplus.
Three more citizens can work coastal tiles. If we wish to grow beyond size 15, then we could put windmills on some hills, or chop a pair of grasslands and put cottages or farms there.
Regarding the precarious health situation I am still not convinced that a forge is a good idea. We have very little to construct, and a lot to research. I would not build a forge, and chop two forests for two more cottages.

Bulbing Edu sounds good to me.

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For trades I have sofar:
  • Drama + 60 gp to Lizzy for Monarchy.
  • Drama + Literature to HC for Calendar + World Map + 60 gp.
  • Drama + CS to Frederick for MC + Construction + 30 gp.
  • Drama to Asoka for his WM + his cash.
  • Gift Math to Izzy, after that hopefully sign OB with Izzy.
  • (after Globe is built) Gift Furs and Silver to Izzy and Lizzy.
  • (next turn) Gift MC to Asoka.

Do we want to stop supplying Asoka with resources next turn? We already have +2 diplo points for this (this was the max, right?), and no longer need incense and gold. We also don't really need the +2 gpt. Our crabs and stone could be used to get other civs to +2, for example Izzy and Lizzy.
Disadvantage could be that someone else can trade for the resources. But as nobody seems to have any surplus and we have to prevent running against Asoka for the diplo win anyway, I don't think this will matter much.
 
I would definitely build the Forge. I don't agree at all that we have very little to build, in the short run we have both Harbor, Aqueduct, University and Oxford which would all be helped by the extra hammers. With Astronomy comes Observatory, I'm arguing for a Monastery, a few missionaries at that (the more the merrier, we could use them on our home continent too), as well as the ships to carry them. And I would be very surprised if sooner or later we wouldn't need to build at least some defenders - landbased and/or seabased military, and potentially also a Castle if we get our hands on Engineering. So I definitely think that a Forge would be worth it.

Trades look good to me. We should keep supplying Asoka with something, since otherwise the bonuses start decreasing. And I really see no reason not to keep up both trades until the point where we need to get Stone back home for Oxford. We can gift away both Gold and Incence, thus getting turns counted both towards Asoka and whoever gets the Gold and Incence that we trade from him. A win-win situation. :)
 
How about you play one turn, i.e. conduct the trades and complete Compass and Globe, and we can continue the discussion after that? I'm keen to see what else is on the table. :)
 
Alright.

450BC: We conduct some trades:











Lizzy still will not sign OB. We score -1 with Caesar for trading with worst enemies, and -2 with the Khan and Alex, but this is the same as before the trades were conducted. Our new world map:



Sparta doesn't have the state religion, so if we can get Judaism to Greece he might switch...

425BC: Compass -> Edu. Globe -> harbor. Our empire now has 1 million souls.

Izzy says her worst enemy is Alex, and still doesn't want to sign OB. In fact we do not get any + points for Maths. Perhaps she was researching it and we should gift some more techs?

Washington says his worst enemy is Alex, and he will trade Feudalism to us for CS + Drama.

Machinery is known to Washington and Lizzy, but they will not trade it.

We cannot trade on the resources we are getting from Asoka, so I suggest to cancel at least one of them, and possibly both if it is easy to get back to +2.



The save is attached.
 

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Looking good so far, and suddenly our score surged up to the top in the graph (at least if we would have uploaded).

HC is now in WFYABTA mode with us. Not surprising. We're no longer on the upper half, and he has seen us trade for 8 techs (his limit is 6). He might forget enough to bring us below the limit soon again though - getting Feudalism from him would be nice.

Toku went back to Cautious, we no longer have the +1 Losers Unite bonus with him.

Did you get to gift MC to Asoka or did he get it from some other source?

Izzy must have been close to Maths indeed. I agree we should gift her something else - Monarchy?

We shouldn't trade for Feudalism from Washington IMO, Machinery is a much much bigger price. He is only a point or two away from Friendly, we will be able to trade for it then. We could potentially gift him Drama and hope that puts him over the limit, and that he would take Compass + CS for Machinery. Or we can just wait, we don't need Machinery right this instance.
 
Toku and Izzy are playing OCC, but not HC like I thought earlier. Interesting.

Delhi is now size 14 and giving us +4 commerce per turn for the trade route - extra nice considering we'll soon have a harbor that gives +50%.

Toku doesn't seem to be anyone's worst enemy, we could gift him something too to cheer him up, get him back to Pleased for that OB.

How do you get people to say who their worst enemy are?
 
I wonder why we can't trade away the resources we are getting in trade, seems rather silly to me. But that's the game I guess. I don't think we should cancel both trades right now, but certainly one of them. IMO we should keep the Stone deal for now, since that also generates gpt for us.
 
Definitely try to get open borders and send a missionary to Alexander. It would be very nice to bring him into our group. The scout might as well go find the second Greek city.

I think our build order should be Forge -> Harbor -> Monastery -> University -> Oxford and throw the Aqueduct in that list when we need it.
 
I don't see how we plan to befriend Alex. We can't trade with him since he's the worst enemy of two others that we're trying to befriend, Washington is of course particularly bad. Alex would also not consider switching religion below Pleased. I'd truly consider him a lost cause. The only one who likes him at all is the Khan, so he might even make a good target for a potential relation-building shared war down the line.

Lizzy on the other hand would consider switching religion already at Cautious, one of only three leaders to do so (the other being Gandhi and Mansa). Not sure if she's worth it though, considering she will most certainly go for FR fairly soon. Interesting about Mansa though, if we can find him on the other continent.

Izzy already has Judaism, but is one of only three leaders who would only consider switching at Friendly (the other being Saladin and Toku). Too bad.
 
Whoa!! I just noticed something really interesting. When talking to Washington, hovering over the "Declare war on" name list, he replies "We have enough on our hands right now". He's not at war, which means he is planning it. Dare I make a guess that Alex is his target? That could get really interesting.

HC would stop fighting Frederick for CS, or MC+Compass. They would still hate each other, but I'd still think a war between them could only be bad for our own purposes. Looking at the power graph, seems Frederick is on the receiving end.

Asoka would consider attacking Alex (and some others), but we have nothing valuable enough to offer him for it. Paper+Compass is not enough apparently.
 
Here's how I think about the forge:

Forge benefit +7 hammers / turn
Forge benefit can assign 1 engineer
Forge cost 120 hammer
Forge cost 1 food = 1/2 person after we hit health cap

The initial 120 hammer cost will break even in 17 turns. From then until we hit our health cap, we are getting a pure bonus of 7 hammers / turn. After we hit our health cap, we are trading 1/2 person for 7 hammers / turn. What could 1/2 person do that would be worth 7 hammers?
 
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