SGOTM 07 - Murky Waters

jesusin · Jun 17, 2008

Let's not dream about dom the turn of the PA anymore. KK has taken 1 city in 20 turns. Let's try to give him 1 or 2 cities from now to PA. Which are the 2 cities that he is able to take? Cuzco seems the easiest one. Athens might be the second best.

Gnejs, of course every city KK takes is a liability and has to be defended. But we have to take them all, the sooner the better.

Gnejs · Jun 17, 2008

jesusin said:
Catching up...

3. Please let's look into Madrid before.
4. Thanks god. KK wouldn't know what to do with our precious units.
8. Why nothing but Chokos? Won't we need replacements for our suicided cats, eventually?

3. That will result in one turn delay for KK's dow. I am reluctant as we have 16 units that we can send to Madrid. But ok, KK can get there faster than a lot of ours.
8. Suicide cats can be replaced by suicide chokos, no problem. I only see a need to build cats if we have to suicide some of our bombard cats in the near future.

Gnejs · Jun 17, 2008

jesusin said:
Let's not dream about dom the turn of the PA anymore. KK has taken 1 city in 20 turns. Let's try to give him 1 or 2 cities from now to PA. Which are the 2 cities that he is able to take? Cuzco seems the easiest one. Athens might be the second best.

Gnejs, of course every city KK takes is a liability and has to be defended. But we have to take them all, the sooner the better.

12 turns to PA, so it will surely only be one.

One other reason I want KK to make peace with JC now is to be able to rebuild some of those pillaged improvements around Beshbalik.

KK has a nice little attack stack in Antium now, and there are three LB in the area that may free up these units immediately. Madrid is only 4 tiles away.

LowtherCastle · Jun 17, 2008

Gnejs said:
Now that we have an artist the importance of capturing Cuzco has gone down a lot. With the severe culture pressure and no improvements Cuzco will only be a liability to KK, something that requires defenders but does not contribute to the war production.

We also have the risk of KK declaring peace with JC anytime soon.

The plan I gave you is rapid. Just a matter of 3 turns or so. Next turn you gift the 2 chokos. T127 KK has them next to Cuzco, if he's not an idiot. If he is, life sux anyway. T128 Cuzco is KK's.

I'm not saying you have to, but I don't feel like you've given any sort of good reason not to follow this plan. Got a better reason?

I've given a pretty good reason not to DoW Madrid now. Like about 15 units in Madrid. And if klarius is righ about axes instead of LBs, then it's more like 20 units. It's your turnset, but I'm totally against anything but CF JC before we look into Madrid.

EDIT: The only significant tiles Beshablik has pillaged are deer and a tundra hill. No biggie. On the other getting Cuzco then Rome frees up the two gold tiles for Anitum, far more important than Beshbalik.

Gnejs · Jun 17, 2008

Pre-Play-Plan T125-T135 v1.1

Pre-Play-Plan OVERVIEW

End the war on Rome, set KK on Isabella and get him to capture Madrid. Then move on to Hamburg, with a long term plan to hit Asoka before Rifling. Tech towards Communism and the PA.

BUILD QUEUE

Only units: Cat-Cat-Choko-Choko-...

UNIT MOVES

Gather southern stack again after teleporting out of JC's lands. Heal up and head for Madrid. At least one cat is gifted to KK at Antium to entice him to attack Madrid.
Cuzco stack stays in place T125. Moves towards Madrid on T126 and starts bombarding on T128.
Choko+2 cats at Washington stays in place this turn, then heads for Madrid arriving T128 and can attack on T129.
In other words, on T129 we have 1 Mace, 3 Chokos, 7 catapults (+possibly some units from the S stack) available for attacking Madrid. Culture defense should be down to 20% of full strength.
Some units might stay at home to help with WW if we lose the silver.

WORKER ACTIONS

W1 Finish roading hill forest (T125), pre-mine hill (T131), road Murky 1 SW, build workshop 2W Murkyopolis
W2 Finish roading forest (T125), pre-build workshop (T133), road Murky SSE

CITY MM

Growth at 18h for three turns, new citizen works hill mine for 22h at almost stagnant (+1f)

DIPLOMATIC ACTIONS AND SEQUENCE

T125:
1. CF JC (teleports units to Spain?)
2. Bribe KK to DOP JC for Printing Press
3. Bribe KK to DOW Isabella for Astronomy
4. CF Isabella (teleports units to Antium?)
5. DoW Isabella
5b. Sell map to Monty for 10gp
6. DOW Montezuma
7. Bribe Hattie, Cathy, Mansa to DOW Montezuma using ?
8. Gift Paper, Edu to Hattie
T126:
6. Scout Madrid with Caravel
7. Cancel stone deal with Lizzie, renegotiate for whale+clams?
8. Trade WM for cash with Freddie, Cyrus,...

STOP CRITERIA

Any city is captured
Someone dows us
I feel like suiciding units

OTHERS
Research: Scientific Method T126 -> Communism (to be finished T137)
Civic change: NONE
Religion change: NONE
Cities settled (yeah, mock Erkon!)

Spoiler :

Gnejs · Jun 17, 2008

LowtherCastle said:
The plan I gave you is rapid. Just a matter of 3 turns or so. Next turn you gift the 2 chokos. T127 KK has them next to Cuzco, if he's not an idiot. If he is, life sux anyway. T128 Cuzco is KK's.

I'm not saying you have to, but I don't feel like you've given any sort of good reason not to follow this plan. Got a better reason?

I've given a pretty good reason not to DoW Madrid now. Like about 15 units in Madrid. And if klarius is righ about axes instead of LBs, then it's more like 20 units. It's your turnset, but I'm totally against anything but CF JC before we look into Madrid.

EDIT: The only significant tiles Beshablik has pillaged are deer and a tundra hill. No biggie. On the other getting Cuzco then Rome frees up the two gold tiles for Anitum, far more important than Beshbalik.

Ok, your plan is conditionally in, depending on what the caravel sees in Madrid.

The big problem with continuing the war against JC is the clear risk that Beshbalik will be lost. And we have no units down there to make an advance on Rome, all we can do is probably to prevent that Beshbalik falls. It will take 8 turns just to get our Cuzco stack down there, several more if we go for Cuzco itself first. Rome is certainly not going to fall before the PA. So the only potential gain from continuing the war is Cuzco, a size 3 city with 2h production per turn :rolleyes:

.

Gnejs · Jun 17, 2008

LowtherCastle said:
I figure Izzy has about 60 pts of unaccounted for units. She can build

lbs @4pts
cats @3pts
axes/galleys @2 pts

So let's take a guess at what she has in Madrid.

2 galleys = 4 pts
10 lbs = 40 pts
2 cats = 6 pts
5 axes = 10 pts

hmm...how many units did we want to gift to KK and how many of Izzy's units did we figure we had to kill off first?

Edit: Madird is also protected by the Chichen Itsa.

I make it a little but less. Isa seems to have about 80% of our power, 0.8*177 = 142. This is my breakdown:

Population: 4 (8 pop)
Techs: 64
Improvements:

Walls(2)
Forge(2)?
Barracks(4)
HE(8)?
Chichen Itza(8)

= 14-24

This leaves 60 power points. But there are a LB(4), a cat(3) and an axe(2) at Washington. So there are 51 unaccounted points. At least 2-3 units will be guarding resources, thats something like 5-10 additional points not inside Madrid. Then there might be more units in transit, but lets not consider those.

Still, there is a maximum of 46 power points in Madrid so not as bad as you have it.

klarius · Jun 17, 2008

I still think we should gift units to KK for attacking Madrid. I tell you it's terrible annoying sitting at a city and have nothing to do, because KK isn't getting his act together.
I don't see that KK will have a lot free units, especially if Izzy is sending a unit or 2 to pillage, putting Antium in "danger". And I wouldn't let him DoW immediately, but wait until his new units are healed.

I would rather give astronomy to Asoka. That's more expensive, but on the way to peaceful techs.
Or astronomy and PP :eek:

, to add Freddy at peace.

klarius · Jun 17, 2008

Gnejs said:
I make it a little but less. Isa seems to have about 80% of our power, 0.8*177 = 142. This is my breakdown:

Population: 4 (8 pop)
Techs: 64
Improvements:
Walls(2)
Forge(2)?
Barracks(4)
HE(8)?
Chichen Itza(8)

= 14-24

This leaves 60 power points. But there are a LB(4), a cat(3) and an axe(2) at Washington. So there are 51 unaccounted points. At least 2-3 units will be guarding resources, thats something like 5-10 additional points not inside Madrid. Then there might be more units in transit, but lets not consider those.

Still, there is a maximum of 46 power points in Madrid so not as bad as you have it.

There was also an spear and cat running around last turn, which I think cannot have suicided in the meantime (or had very bad luck). Don't know where they are now, last turn they were 2E of our Cuzco stack. Also not all units will be in Madrid. There will be resource guards also, maybe juicy XP delivering spears.

klarius · Jun 17, 2008

I just noted another small thing. GW's GA will not bomb NY (69% American), but he may bomb Washington soon. Washington is down to 60% American :eek:

, due to the combined culture attack of Bombay and York. That will let us lose the second silver also, though not much more should happen.
That means we need either to bomb also, or build globe, as I don't see that we can stand WW after PA w/o the silver.

Gnejs · Jun 17, 2008

klarius said:
I still think we should gift units to KK for attacking Madrid. I tell you it's terrible annoying sitting at a city and have nothing to do, because KK isn't getting his act together.
I don't see that KK will have a lot free units, especially if Izzy is sending a unit or 2 to pillage, putting Antium in "danger". And I wouldn't let him DoW immediately, but wait until his new units are healed.

I would rather give astronomy to Asoka. That's more expensive, but on the way to peaceful techs.
Or astronomy and PP , to add Freddy at peace.

In Antium, KK has:
Mace C1+C2+Formation
Mace C1+Cover
LB CG1
Pikeman C1+C2+Medic

And 1 SW of Antium he has two LB with CG1. None of his units are injured. The two maces should be looking for a fight, right? But we could maybe gift some from the southern stack to him. Depends on where they get teleported though. Or we use those units to clear the area around Antium

You're right, PP is on the way to Rifling. :eek:

Gnejs · Jun 17, 2008

klarius said:
There was also an spear and cat running around last turn, which I think cannot have suicided in the meantime (or had very bad luck). Don't know where they are now, last turn they were 2E of our Cuzco stack. Also not all units will be in Madrid. There will be resource guards also, maybe juicy XP delivering spears.

Ok, then we have about 40 or less power points in Madrid. Perhaps something like:

3 Galleys = 6 points
5 Axes = 10 points
2 Spears = 4 points
5 Longbows = 20 points

Would have been nice to have some more Maces...

klarius · Jun 17, 2008

Gnejs said:
Ok, then we have about 40 or less power points in Madrid. Perhaps something like:

3 Galleys = 6 points
5 Axes = 10 points
2 Spears = 4 points
5 Longbows = 20 points

Would have been nice to have some more Maces...

Choks eat axes and spears for breakfast

. 50% against melee and 2 first strikes are plenty. Against axes (and maces) they have even better odds than maces. The longbows have to be whittled down first anyway.

LowtherCastle · Jun 17, 2008

Gnejs said:
Ok, your plan is conditionally in, depending on what the caravel sees in Madrid.

The big problem with continuing the war against JC is the clear risk that Beshbalik will be lost. And we have no units down there to make an advance on Rome, all we can do is probably to prevent that Beshbalik falls. It will take 8 turns just to get our Cuzco stack down there, several more if we go for Cuzco itself first. Rome is certainly not going to fall before the PA. So the only potential gain from continuing the war is Cuzco, a size 3 city with 2h production per turn .

I see only one infinitesimally small chance that JC captures Besh--if JC has units SE or SW of Besh. But those tiles aren't pillaged so that's microscopically infinitesimal.

We send a cat S and can see if JC has units at Besh E, Besh NE or Besh NE E. Next turn we can move the choko into Besh and even gift it, if a threat appears. Meanwhile, we can always bribe KK to DoP at any point, so there's never a chance of losing Besh.

The clear gain from attcking Cuzco is that we can capture both Cuzco and Madrid during your turnset, if you want. If I were you, I'd be looking for multiple cities to capture. :scan:

LowtherCastle · Jun 17, 2008

And then no need to give Asoka any techs.

klarius · Jun 18, 2008

If we should try such a Cuzco gamble, gifting choks or maces will not do it. There has to be at least 1 cat.
The units we gift will have the default UNITAI for this type of unit. That's UNITAI_COUNTER for maces and choks.
Counter units will not target cities from distance, but only do an attack decision, when they can attack the same turn. They do stack with attack or attack city units (cats are ATTACK_CITY) and follow them then.
Still the attack decision has to come from the cat then and depends on the attack odds of the cat.

The real big problem is that there is nothing to pillage. By that only ATTACK or ATTACK_CITY units can decide to come near to Cuzco. COUNTER or PILLAGE units can not get there on their own.

Gnejs · Jun 18, 2008

klarius said:
If we should try such a Cuzco gamble, gifting choks or maces will not do it. There has to be at least 1 cat.
The units we gift will have the default UNITAI for this type of unit. That's UNITAI_COUNTER for maces and choks.
Counter units will not target cities from distance, but only do an attack decision, when they can attack the same turn. They do stack with attack or attack city units (cats are ATTACK_CITY) and follow them then.
Still the attack decision has to come from the cat then and depends on the attack odds of the cat.

The real big problem is that there is nothing to pillage. By that only ATTACK or ATTACK_CITY units can decide to come near to Cuzco. COUNTER or PILLAGE units can not get there on their own.

Very interesting! In that case we should also consider gifting KK one or two cats at Antium to get him moving against Madrid. But there are plenty of tiles to pillage there so perhaps it isn't needed.

Will a gifted cat start moving towards Cuzco even if the attack odds seem poor? Or will it wait until we have redlined the defenders?

Is it possible to tell what type of unit it is from the promotions?

klarius · Jun 18, 2008

Gnejs said:
Very interesting! In that case we should also consider gifting KK one or two cats at Antium to get him moving against Madrid. But there are plenty of tiles to pillage there so perhaps it isn't needed.

Will a gifted cat start moving towards Cuzco even if the attack odds seem poor? Or will it wait until we have redlined the defenders?

Is it possible to tell what type of unit it is from the promotions?

Gifting some cats in Antium should at least make sure that something at all gets moving.

A city attack unit should move towards Cuzco if it's his target city. But that should be true for all his other attack city units and I haven't seen a trace of them

. For the attack it will then calculate odds, so then we need very weak defenders.
It would be different for attack units, which can decide to attack from 4 turns away based on odds.

As usual there is the RNG involved in promotions. But attack city units prefer city raider (for cats also barrage and accuracy). Attack units prefer combat and unitclass specific stuff. A healer will be a counter, city defense, city counter or city special unit. Counter units also like terrain defense stuff. But also unitclass modifiers, so can look like attack.
If you see a crossbow with extra first strikes it will probably be a UNITAI_RESERVE unit (or counter with lower probability). That's an interesting unit as they will go for cities from some distance like attack units, if the odds are right.

Gnejs · Jun 18, 2008

klarius said:
Gifting some cats in Antium should at least make sure that something at all gets moving.

A city attack unit should move towards Cuzco if it's his target city. But that should be true for all his other attack city units and I haven't seen a trace of them . For the attack it will then calculate odds, so then we need very weak defenders.
It would be different for attack units, which can decide to attack from 4 turns away based on odds.

As usual there is the RNG involved in promotions. But attack city units prefer city raider (for cats also barrage and accuracy). Attack units prefer combat and unitclass specific stuff. A healer will be a counter, city defense, city counter or city special unit. Counter units also like terrain defense stuff. But also unitclass modifiers, so can look like attack.
If you see a crossbow with extra first strikes it will probably be a UNITAI_RESERVE unit (or counter with lower probability). That's an interesting unit as they will go for cities from some distance like attack units, if the odds are right.

Lets have a look at KK's units then:

In Antium:
Mace C1+C2+Formation - ATTACK
Mace C1+Cover - ATTACK
LB CG1 - CITY DEFENSE
Pikeman C1+C2+Medic - COUNTER?

SW Antium:
LB CG1 - CITY DEFENSE
LB CG1 - CITY DEFENSE

In Beshbalik:
Longbow - CITY DEFENSE
Pikeman C1+Medic -

In Karakorum:
Maceman C1+C2+Formation - ATTACK
Longbow - SETTLER ESCORT
Crossbow - CITY DEFENSE
Longbow - CITY DEFENSE
Longbow CG1 - CITY DEFENSE
Pikeman C1+C2 - ATTACK?
Cat Barrage - CITY ATTACK
Cat Barrage - CITY ATTACK
Cat CR - CITY ATTACK
Cat CR - CITY ATTACK

Seems as if his only city attackers are in Karakorum. I guess Rome is the most likely target if Kk stays at war with JC. But if he goes to war against Isa instead there is only one possible city to send them to. Maybe he needs to build up a stack first before sending away these units.

FiveAces · Jun 18, 2008

I think the 3 pikeman are also city defense/settler escort.

SGOTM 07 - Murky Waters

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Emperor

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