Civilization Fanatics' Forums Flip Calc - Calculates the probability of culture flips

May 12, 2003, 02:14 PM   #1
anarres
anarchist revolutionary

Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: www.civ3duelzone.com
Posts: 6,069
Calculating the exact probability of a culture flip?

Edit: I will always have the latest version linked in to the first post so you don't have to go looking through the thread for it...

Please note that Version 1.5 contains a significant change to the distance formula, you should update to this version straight away.

Version 1.5

'Distance' dialog:

Change list:

- Changed distance formula from:

to: max(x,y) + 0.5*min(x,y)

1.4 (22nd June):
- Added a 'Minimum Garrison' field.
- Made the whole form dynamic. If all fields have valid values the calculations will be done automatically. If any fields are invalid 'n/a' is displayed, click 'Calculate' to see which one.
- Culture numbers now can be decimals instead of just whole numbers, this is so you can enter a ratio in like 2.5 : 1.
- Distance dialog box now keeps it's data when you close and re-open it.

1.3 (15th May)
- fixed some annoying bugs

1.2 (15th May)
- added new form to allow better entry of distance
- changed icon

1.1 (14th May)
- Added cumalative probability of flip

1.0 (13th May)
- First version
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Taken from the FAQ:
Quote:
 How many units do i need to suprpess a culture flip?[list][*]the full formula (this is from Sorenson, who is responsible for this programming): P=[(F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) - G]/D where: P = probability that it will flip this turn F = # foreignors, with resistors counting double T = # working tiles under foreign control (out of the max of 21, no matter what the cultural boundaries are atm) Cc = 2 if foreign civ has more local culture than you, 1 otherwise H = .5 for WLTKD, 2 for disorder, 1 otherwise Cte = Total culture of the foreign civ Cty = Total culture of your civ G = # garrison units D = factor based on relative distance to capitals Now reorganizing this gives the required garrison as: G = (F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) As you can see there is a nice set of extra factors there. Now when you take a city Cc is likely to be 2 for a long while. And then there is the culture ratio. And this is a true ratio so it could be 1.1:1, 2:1, 5:1 depending on how much culture each of you has.
According to this, the factor D is a crucial scaling variable that will enable us to work out the exact chance of a culture flip, since all other factors are known. 'D' should really be written 'n*d', where 'd' is the actual ratio of distance to capitals, and 'n' is the scaling factor.

P=[(F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) - G]/n*d

My ultimate goal is to produce a 'Flip Calculator', an in-game tool that will allow you to select a city and give you the chance of it flipping to each civ.

The exact culture score of an opponent is a slight spoiler, as is the existing culture of a city you capture, so in honesty a 'Flip Calculator' would not be 'pure' (usable in GOTM and tourney) if it gained this information in game. You could still have a manual entry for these which would allow a non-spoiler version, and you could estimate the relative culture ratio fairly accurately.

Does anyone know what the value of 'n' is? If not I will run some scenarios to determine it, it shouldn't be difficult, just a little time consuming.

Last edited by Thunderfall; Jun 04, 2004 at 04:13 PM.

 May 12, 2003, 02:48 PM #2 DaveMcW Deity     Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 6,485 Images: 2 __________________ . Cottages! . GP Bulb Techs . Vaporize Stupid People Build at least 6 cities . Press Ctrl R to turn on resource bubbles . Build 1.5 workers per city . Check F9 Demographics often . Stay near the top in soldiers . Rush Buying Formula
 May 12, 2003, 03:08 PM #3 anarres anarchist revolutionary     Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: www.civ3duelzone.com Posts: 6,069 Yay! Thanks DaveMcW! [dance] I *knew* I'd seen it somewhere. Looking at the original Apolyton thread 'n' (as it is in my forumula) is definitely 2000, and 'd' (in my formula) is the ratio of distance to capitals, capped between 0.25 and 4. hehe, calc ahoy! My first attempt will be a windows app with manual fields to enter the variables in. The second will hopefully integrate with civ and allow you to dynamically select a city to evaluate.
 May 12, 2003, 03:20 PM #4 wilbill That Old Time Religion     Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: North Carolina Posts: 2,514 Images: 2 Good luck with the project, Anarres. I've developed a pretty good "feel" for when there's a danger of flipping and am not wrong often, but it still happens.
 May 12, 2003, 03:55 PM #5 Chieftess Moderator     Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Baltimore Posts: 23,998 Drat, there goes another attempt for me to create a civ related program. (atleast Visual Basic is the quick way...) Thread moved and title changed. __________________ "Never trust an Aztec with nukes!" (Civ1 - unknown) | 2nd user of the Ancient Style. South America (based on El Mencey's Map) | N & S America (based on El Mencey's Map) | C3C Scenario: 7,000 Turns Civ2 Earth for C3C | Old Style Civ3 for C3C | "Future is Wild" map How to upload multiple files to a post | File Upload | Paint Shop Pro 3.11 shareware (screenshot util - doesn't expire) | Chieftess' Culture Flip Calc | Don't wind up like this AI! | resource icons file To download a patch: Select "Advanced" from the main menu, and go to "Check for Updates". || My Web Journal (yes, it's a "blog")
 May 12, 2003, 04:37 PM #6 anarres anarchist revolutionary     Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: www.civ3duelzone.com Posts: 6,069 Thanks CT! I probably will do the first version in VB, just to get it done quickly. For the second version that ties in with civ I am fairly sure that I will need to use C++ to properly access the memory stack.
 May 12, 2003, 05:40 PM #8 anarres anarchist revolutionary     Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: www.civ3duelzone.com Posts: 6,069 I can do C++, I just use VB for utils with graphical interfaces. To give meaningful data the latest version will have to work on the active memory itself, reading the values as the game is playing. Having to save a file and check it will be far to cumbersome. I know this is possible, SpiderZord is writing a GOTM logging utility that does it.
 May 12, 2003, 06:35 PM #9 Chieftess Moderator     Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Baltimore Posts: 23,998 And here it is. I'll be moving this to the Utilities forum next. Chieftess' Civ3 Culture Calc Note: It's **VERY** crude (and thus, **VERY** beta), since I'm still trying to figure out how to work MS Visual C++. (anyone have any sites for dialog programming?) As for the active memory, I have NO idea how to even use that, or even have a DirectX program within a DirectX program. I can't even program DirectX well... __________________ "Never trust an Aztec with nukes!" (Civ1 - unknown) | 2nd user of the Ancient Style. South America (based on El Mencey's Map) | N & S America (based on El Mencey's Map) | C3C Scenario: 7,000 Turns Civ2 Earth for C3C | Old Style Civ3 for C3C | "Future is Wild" map How to upload multiple files to a post | File Upload | Paint Shop Pro 3.11 shareware (screenshot util - doesn't expire) | Chieftess' Culture Flip Calc | Don't wind up like this AI! | resource icons file To download a patch: Select "Advanced" from the main menu, and go to "Check for Updates". || My Web Journal (yes, it's a "blog") Last edited by Chieftess; May 12, 2003 at 06:44 PM.
 May 12, 2003, 06:51 PM #10 zulu9812 The Newbie Nightmare     Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Athens of the North Posts: 6,378 nice hijack Chieftess __________________ UP THE IRONS! Get the inside story on the war in Iraq , The War Prayer My Units Field Gun, Carthage Pikeman, Rome Pikeman, Viking Spearman My Leaderheads Dwarf Lord, Dark Elf My tutorials How to make Leaderheads in Poser, Using Daz's Michael 3 for Unit Creation
May 12, 2003, 07:04 PM   #11
Chieftess
Moderator

Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Baltimore
Posts: 23,998
Quote:
 Originally posted by zulu9812 nice hijack Chieftess
I figured you were coming with your wrong forum animation.

anyway, the thread with my version of it is here.
__________________
"Never trust an Aztec with nukes!" (Civ1 - unknown) | 2nd user of the Ancient Style.
South America (based on El Mencey's Map) | N & S America (based on El Mencey's Map) | C3C Scenario: 7,000 Turns Civ2 Earth for C3C | Old Style Civ3 for C3C | "Future is Wild" map
How to upload multiple files to a post | File Upload | Paint Shop Pro 3.11 shareware (screenshot util - doesn't expire) | Chieftess' Culture Flip Calc | Don't wind up like this AI! | resource icons file To download a patch: Select "Advanced" from the main menu, and go to "Check for Updates". || My Web Journal (yes, it's a "blog")

 May 13, 2003, 01:20 AM #12 Plexus Child-eating squid.     Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: in: Bay., DE // fr: S. Calif., USA Posts: 7,005 I know yer name! Nice program, ct. __________________ /plexus/
May 13, 2003, 07:36 AM   #13
Chieftess
Moderator

Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Baltimore
Posts: 23,998
Quote:
 Originally posted by Plexus I know yer name! Nice program, ct.
Now all I need is Spycatcher's name and then... (running gamecatcher between anarchywrksbest and spycatcher34).

Well, let's get this thing back on topic.
__________________
"Never trust an Aztec with nukes!" (Civ1 - unknown) | 2nd user of the Ancient Style.
South America (based on El Mencey's Map) | N & S America (based on El Mencey's Map) | C3C Scenario: 7,000 Turns Civ2 Earth for C3C | Old Style Civ3 for C3C | "Future is Wild" map
How to upload multiple files to a post | File Upload | Paint Shop Pro 3.11 shareware (screenshot util - doesn't expire) | Chieftess' Culture Flip Calc | Don't wind up like this AI! | resource icons file To download a patch: Select "Advanced" from the main menu, and go to "Check for Updates". || My Web Journal (yes, it's a "blog")

 May 13, 2003, 08:54 AM #14 anarres anarchist revolutionary     Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: www.civ3duelzone.com Posts: 6,069 So can I pick this up or have you claimed it for yourself CT??
 May 13, 2003, 09:01 AM #15 Chieftess Moderator     Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Baltimore Posts: 23,998 You can pick it up. There can always be 2 versions. Medium or supersized? __________________ "Never trust an Aztec with nukes!" (Civ1 - unknown) | 2nd user of the Ancient Style. South America (based on El Mencey's Map) | N & S America (based on El Mencey's Map) | C3C Scenario: 7,000 Turns Civ2 Earth for C3C | Old Style Civ3 for C3C | "Future is Wild" map How to upload multiple files to a post | File Upload | Paint Shop Pro 3.11 shareware (screenshot util - doesn't expire) | Chieftess' Culture Flip Calc | Don't wind up like this AI! | resource icons file To download a patch: Select "Advanced" from the main menu, and go to "Check for Updates". || My Web Journal (yes, it's a "blog")
May 13, 2003, 09:48 AM   #16
anarres
anarchist revolutionary

Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: www.civ3duelzone.com
Posts: 6,069
Well, here is my version 1.

Note: There is no error checking on any of the fields yet. The calculations seem to be fine, and it even remembers to cap the distance ratio for you if you enter in a value outside the 0.25 to 4 range.

Negative values for the flip chance should read 0.00%, stupid formatting on my part...

If you use it please post any bugs here.

The next version will have full error checking in, and it will allow a decent input system for the distance ratio (should have NW-SE distances for both human and AI).

Please also note that it was written in VB6 for development speed.
Attached Files
 flipcalc.zip (4.7 KB, 373 views)

 May 13, 2003, 09:55 AM #17 anarres anarchist revolutionary     Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: www.civ3duelzone.com Posts: 6,069 Here is a screenie:
 May 13, 2003, 11:29 AM #18 Moulton Monarch     Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Kentucky Posts: 810 Anarres -- could not find yours to download.... I still believe that the final datum is the Jokers-Wild random chance of flipping, no matter what else is happening. I have taken to leaving only one unit in a city once the resistance is quelled.
 May 13, 2003, 11:37 AM #19 anarres anarchist revolutionary     Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: www.civ3duelzone.com Posts: 6,069 Moulton, the file is *attached* to post 16. (3 up from here). Please post comment/feedback. I guess CT will get the popular vote, but it would be nice if *someone* found a use for mine. Edit: I also linked the attachment in to the first post, that can act as a pointer to the latest version... Last edited by anarres; May 13, 2003 at 11:40 AM.
 May 13, 2003, 12:16 PM #20 Moulton Monarch     Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Kentucky Posts: 810 Thanks, I will try both. Wish I had thought of it

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