GOTM 19-Ottomans Statistics Overview

Even later than last month...

I only hope I won't end up completing the stats for GOTM20 when Civ4 comes out!

Anyway, it is still not so late that everyone has forgotten what this GOTM19 was, after all...

Indeed, GOTM19 was a record-setting event with 244 valid submissions, as much as GOTM20 is if we consider the number of people that played (ad won) a Deity game -really shocking, at least for me...

And now to the games, starting with a look at how they were won or lost:



Space Race victories have become once again the most frequent choice. Was GOTM18 an exception due to the Pangea map setting?
I thought that the Jason scoring system would have favoured a more equal spread of the victory choices. Instead, there seems to be a more or less constant predilection for some types of victory over others... who knows -in my case, I know that I went for Diplomatic in the last two GOTMs because I wanted few and fast turns (no time to play... ).

A look at the score and finish date distributions (Then, like last month, I will let the more expert people do their own analyses!)





One thing that I could see here, is that the scores seem to be grouping a bit too much towards the top end of the spectrum...

After three months of Jason, we can start giving a look at trends in the max, min and average scores.

Yes, it is true. The average score is steadily increasing, the average finish date is steadily decreasing.
Which means that you guys are becoming better and better at this game, and that poor souls like myself and many others will never ever get a medal or an award...





What else. Milking is definitely alive, if you look at the latest date curve; and it would be nice to hear comments from experienced players on the other score curves, and how they may relate with difficulty level and map characteristics (I don't have a clue)

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The same, split by victory condition.








I think that these plots really tell a lot about the way we play the GOTM.
One of the things that stand out is the way many of us win by Space Race (and, to a lesser extent, Diplomatic) without really going for earliest date or a milked victory.
I am not sure that these are the easiest, or "most natural", victory conditions.

In fact, it is a while since we last saw a Space Race victory get a gold medal (actually, since the Jason system entered the GOTM).

And here comes the most discussed plot of all times... the TpS. This month you'll see a big surge to the right end of the plot. What will it mean?




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To close the series, our tribute to Creepster and all the staff that take care of the monthly submissions.

With a record month, and most submissions coming on the very last day, it was really a monster achievement to them! (not like your Registrar, who is always ages late in preparing two easy plots... ).

Originally posted by Karasu

Yes, it is true. The average score is steadily increasing, the average finish date is steadily decreasing.
Which means that you guys are becoming better and better at this game, and that poor souls like myself and many others will never ever get a medal or an award...

Click to expand...

While not disputing that play standards are increasing, is it not dangerous to infer this from a series of games where the difficulty has been also changed between each game. Especially since the more difficult game was handicapped to be a little easier than the norm?

Even a player who was not improving would expect earlier finishes on Deity; they might be losses but it's still an earlier finish!

The proof of the pudding will really be in this month's game. If scores increase relative to #18 - our last Monarch game, I think - then that would be a more significant statistic I think. (Even then, game conditions must have an effect too)

Good work Karasu. Seems like us newcomers go for the easier wins (Diplo & Space Race) but will try a different route on 22. Winnign is one thing - I'll be ecstatic if I ever place in the top 20. Oh well, back to the Predator space race...

You're totally right, MadScot -three points are not enough to draw conclusions.

In fact, right now one can only start getting a hint at any possible trend (if any) -we will need to wait for several months before we can really look into this.

Still, I thought the thing was worth showing


Just a note (my fault for not pointing that out): those curves refer to winning games.

Is it a little odd that the TPS profile betwen Game 17 and the others is not a lot different ? Didn't game 17 (Carthage meets the Fog & Volcanos) suffer from the notorious "snail-pace" start ? Does that mean that all you fanatics out there ended up playing for a longer period giving about the same number of turns per period, just because that game was so interesting ?

Or did the delay effect I experienced just end up getting swamped by all you out there with super-high powered game playing monster computers, and by the turn speed up experienced when the game got to the early AD years ?

Either way - interesting numbers ... and why the TPS kick-up in game 19 at the high end of the scale ? What does the tail look like ? Is the 21 TPS actually 21+ TPS ? And are there any super-fanatics who approach 100 or 200 or even 300 TPS ? If so, they either deserve an endurance medal or they need counselling (or perhaps they just hibernate their PC / Laptop rather than shutting down).

Originally posted by Peanut
Either way - interesting numbers ... and why the TPS kick-up in game 19 at the high end of the scale ? What does the tail look like ? Is the 21 TPS actually 21+ TPS ? And are there any super-fanatics who approach 100 or 200 or even 300 TPS ? If so, they either deserve an endurance medal or they need counselling (or perhaps they just hibernate their PC / Laptop rather than shutting down).

Click to expand...

Yes, I'm pretty sure it is 21+ tps. Yes, there are some players who play 2-300+ turns in one sitting. Some may just use governors and automation for the whole game, or have a whole day (like on weekends) they can devote to the game so that is how they can get a tps that high. There was one person who took 500+ hours to play the game (20+ full days!)

Sorry, folks. I just realized that Excel threw in its automatic numbering of the X axis.

I updated the plot -the values in the plot were correct -only, the number of TpS is sorted in a different way. The last entry is ">80".

Karasu & Bamspeedy -

Thanks for the further insights and the correction. And for the hard work done in processing this info.

Having worked with Excel (and 123 and even VisiCalc) for years I know how hard it can be to massage numbers while maintaining meaning and enhancing understanding.

Jolly good work chaps - and I look forward to the insights you give into game 20.

Buried in your statistics is probably a Psychology PhD examining "Human behavior patterns with obsessive outlier tendancies within a voluntary anonymous closed interest group online community" or something like that ...

Originally posted by Peanut
Buried in your statistics is probably a Psychology PhD examining "Human behavior patterns with obsessive outlier tendancies within a voluntary anonymous closed interest group online community" or something like that ...

Click to expand...

good luck with your thesis!


Ted