SGOTM 15 - One Short Straw

Another factor to codedive, ZPV, is how many units will he be satisfied with for DoW and under what conditions (TotPop, Tot#ofCities,...). I'm examining his power graph to determine what he's built and I'll make a report on that.

Good, then according to DanF's other post, we can't be a land target (LT), which means that either Hammy has another land target that pushed him into WHEOOHRN or this is the Total War Pass 3 situation. With AIs only having ~3 cities each, my guess is no land targets yet, so the question is what is the preparation time for Total War at Normal speed?
Preparation time = 10 turns. If he still hasn't decided he's ready after an additional 10 turns, he drops WHEOOHRN.
He decides he is ready, if the landmass gets AREAAI_OFFENSIVE.
The criteria for this are:
units(Attack + Attack City + Pillage) > (HammysPop+HammysCities+1)*25/100 + 1
It's 20/100 if he's not preparing for a total war
 
ZPV, does he check for AREAAI_OFFENSIVE each turn or only on 10t intervals after WHEOOHRN?

Edit: During SG10 klarius said the same (13 turns for Epic), but he also said as long as their power isn't double ours. Right now I have Hammy's power at 90/91 and ours is 43...

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LowtherCastle said:
Usually poprushing comes out better overall, but since we're not in a hurry to get the +60h for the first few units and because we're sharing the food, it might not be the case here.
I believe that the math has been run on the subject and the community consensus was that GH Mines out-perform whipping in all but the immediate short term, so I like the idea of whipping in Marble and working the GH Mines in Delhi.


I also like the idea of skipping The Great Library and generating our Great Scientists ASAP... it seems that whenever I push for doing something differently (building Chandi's Library later), LC finds a way of justifying his original plan... which is a good thing, as then we usually end up with a pretty good reason for what LC had planned to do in the first place.


This coming weekend and next week, I will have some time, and after that, I will probably be away from a computer for 1.5 weeks... although I'll try and sneak in some internet time when I can. So, I should probably plan to play a turnset sometime next week.


I'm on board with early Metal Casting, too. Other than The Great Library, there is no real rush on getting Literature... it'll probably still be a while before we can cultivate a 10-XP unit and we don't really want to build The National Epic, and we also don't want any of the Aesthetics Wonders (except the ones that we capture). For example, even The Parthenon isn't totally hot, since we're already Philosophical.


Mitchum said:
If we were to run 2 scientists and 1 engineer the whole time (not going to happen since the library will come way before the forge) in both cities, the odds of getting a GE in each city is 33% and the odds of getting two GEs is about 11%. Since we'll be running 2 scientists for most of the time and an engineer for a smaller part of the time, our odds of getting two GEs should be less than 5%.

I think running an engineer is a solid way to speed up the Engineering/Machinery bulb plan. If we research MC next and build forges, that is.
Will we actually be able to build a Forge in time without having to fire our Scientists too long due to having whipped a Forge?

I'd also be tempted to get Polytheism -> Monotheism right after Metal Casting... we'll want Polytheism for Literature ANYWAY and if we're putting a Forge in Delhi, then we


LowtherCastle said:
Okay, I was assuming we'd bulb Machinery as soon as we get the GS, so we could start building Xbows
XBows will be overkill versus Archers (too many Hammers for what we get), plus we'd need Archery, so I'm okay to wait on Lightbulbing.


LowtherCastle said:
I don't think we even want to bother with a forge in NC.
I would tend to agree, at least for the short term (a Forge could possibly be whipped there later if we plan to build Farms there and do successive whipping after the Forge [since whips also benefit from a Forge], particularly if we get Hinduism there for Organized Religion before whipping the Forge). That said, if we put a Forge in Delhi with the plan of running an Engineer Specialist, then it doesn't really make sense to generate the second Great Person in NC... BUT... more realistically, we are better off running 2 Scientist Specialists in NC for a longer period and working Mines in Delhi for a longer period.

I'm also not convinced that we can feasibly get a Forge (even with Organized Religion and Forest Chops) in Delhi within a timeframe that will actually speed up a Great Person being generated there.

Also, it will be easier to build a Forge once we have spare population (i.e. population not dedicated to running Specialists) to either be whipped or to work Mines, or a combination thereof.

As a result, I still think that I like the idea of generating Great Scientist #2 in Delhi at a 100% chance (simply because we won't have a Forge anytime soon), followed by firing the Scientists and building a Forge in Delhi (once our military needs are met), and generating Great Scientist #3 in NC by working the 2 Scientist Specialists there for the longer period of time.



Mitchum said:
I think I recall OBs affecting the value of a trade mission. Checking... Nope. It's based off of a "hypothetical" trade route. Unless I'm misunderstanding something in DanF's post.
One of the main factors that you can control is increasing the City Size of your capital before launching the Trade Mission.

That's why in a game where you don't go for early Bureaucracy + Cottages in your capital, it can actually be a VERY strong move to Farm your capital and grow it, as then you can execute Trade Missions that produce higher income.

I would tend to think that this game would be such a game where building Cottages in the capital and going for Bureaucracy won't be a very effective approach, so Farming Delhi (and possibly Cottaging Cities with a Gem or Gold Resource and can also get a Market) will probably make the most sense overall.

LC seems to imply that we'll need 100 Cottages... well, that may be the case, but I'd still push for Farms in Delhi, giving us the opposite of an early-Bureaucracy approach: Farm the capital and Cottage the other Cities that have sufficient Food to support reasonable growth plus still work Cottages.



Mitchum said:
Why take the rax out of Delhi's queue. I like to leave partial builds in the queue so that we don't forget about them.
While I agree for a single player game, in this game, we're unlikely to forget about the Barracks' Hammers.

If he finds it easier to remember to keep building units when the dialogue prompts him to do so, I'd rather take the Barracks out of the queue and then insert it later than to have a couple of turns' worth of Hammers go into a Barracks due to LC having too many other details to worry about.

That said, one could also Alt + click a Catapult if Delhi is solely building Catapults, in order to have infinite Catapults followed by a Barracks in our build queue. Alternatively, if it's multiple types of units, we could shift-click or ctrl-click to alter the queue to have all of the units listed in order followed by the Barracks.

Essentially, though, we should do whatever makes the Active Player the most comfortable, since, as a team, we're not going to forget about those invested Hammers in the Barracks.


LowtherCastle said:
It will be a long time before we get CoL.
Hmmm, that fact will be one of the major consequences of our Engineering Lightbulbing: having to delay learning Code of Laws.

Perhaps we need to consider partially researching Code of Laws soon (probably even befor my suggestion of Polytheism -> Monotheism) and then only completing research on the tech after we've done our Lightbulbing.


LowtherCastle said:
Announcement: Hammy went WHEOOHRN on T68!!!
Well, at least we avoided the "bug" that other teams experienced (which I suspect might just be one AI bribing another to declare war on us, but it's hard to say until we see the exact situation that the other team or teams encountered without the WHEOOHRN warning.


Mitchum said:
With that said, how many units do you think we'd need at the choke point to effectively hold him off? I'd think 2 or 3 fully fortified axes and a spear or two would hold off a fairly big stack.
One of those Axes should probably be a Spearman...

AND... since we have Math (or is it Construction?), we can build a Fort on a Forest within our Cultural Borders.
 
ZPV, does he check for AREAAI_OFFENSIVE each turn or only on 10t intervals after WHEOOHRN?

Edit: During SG10 klarius said the same (13 turns for Epic), but he also said as long as their power isn't double ours. Right now I have Hammy's power at 90/91 and ours is 43...

.

He checks for AREAAI_OFFENSIVE each turn.
I can't find a reference to power in that check - only in choosing the original war target (and we do meet the power requirements for a distant war).
 
I believe that the math has been run on the subject and the community consensus was that GH Mines out-perform whipping in all but the immediate short term

Really. I find that hard to believe. I'd love to see a link to this community consensus. Everything I've read says that Slavery is the bees knees. EDIT: especially in smaller cities with a good food surplus and a granary.

One of those Axes should probably be a Spearman...

Agreed. I called for 3 axes and a spear or two. Unless you're thinking 2 axes and 2 or 3 spears.

AND... since we have Math (or is it Construction?), we can build a Fort on a Forest within our Cultural Borders.

Good point. A fort would make that tile easier to defend. The Reference Guide says that a fort gives +25% tile defence and acts as a city for combat purposes. Does that mean that units that have special city defence properties like archers would get the forest (25%), fort (25%), fortification (25%) and city defense (50%) boni?
 
Preparation time = 10 turns. If he still hasn't decided he's ready after an additional 10 turns, he drops WHEOOHRN.
He decides he is ready, if the landmass gets AREAAI_OFFENSIVE.
The criteria for this are:
units(Attack + Attack City + Pillage) > (HammysPop+HammysCities+1)*25/100 + 1
It's 20/100 if he's not preparing for a total war
My calcs:
Hammy#ofCities = 3
Hammy#ofPeople = 12 (possilby less)
Hammy#ofAxes = 5
Hammy#ofSpears = 1
Hammy#ofBowmen = 3
Hammy#ofBarracksInBabylon = 1 (probably, but not certain)

Units(5+1) > (12 + 3 + 1)*25/100 + 1 = 5 Yes. ==> AREAAI_OFFENSIVE!

Of course, with 3 cities, I think Hammy would require at least 4 bowmen defenders, so possibly he has 4 bowmen and one fewer attackers, so he wouldgo AREAAI_OFFENSIVE with the next attack unit or the next poprush. Or if his TotPop is 11 or less, he could already be in AREAAI_OFFENSIVE.

Is it possible that any of the axes or spears are created as something other than Attack, AttackCity, or Pillage?

As I recall, they need to attach themselves to some kind of unit which is typically a spear, for example. Is that right, ZPV?

In any case, it appears that a 5-unit SoD is the minimum that Hammy could send out. They would be mostly 3XP axes, unless they've gained XP against barbs. That SoD should be able to move quite any turn now. It could have reached AREAAIOFFENSIVE on T69, after apparently completing two more units.

What do we want to do?

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Note: Hatty completed IW on T65, but doesn't threaten with anything but War Chariots so far. Hammy does not have IW yet.

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Here's my Hammy demo screen data, if someone wants to try to figure out how many units he has. I didn't solve the entire riddle...
 

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One possible solution would be to quickly build Deer/Cows and gift it to Hammy, then DoW him, re-capture and DoP asap. If our only battle is capturing Deer/Cows, he'll be willing to talk after 3t. This might work, but it won't be easy, because we still have to build the settler, move it, and settle and gift it, DoW, then move our warrior next to it for capture, then wait the 3t for him to talk. By then, his SoD might be at our doorstep.

Another possible solution would be to build the Deer/Cows city, but gift it to Toku, with the more limited intention of simply capturing Deer/Cows and Osaka to acquire Alpha. Meanwhile, sending plenty of defenders to Zlatorog. Maybe even sending a scouting axe ahead to see what's ahead. Then decide whether to attack Kyoto or Babylon next. That way, whoever we attack next, we have Alpha for tax tech collection purposes. :)
 
What I want to know is, do we get t78+marching time before a Hammy DoW? If so, that should be enough for us to build our Kyoto stack, and then build a few units to defend against Hammy?
The other possibility is he has an amphibious stack.
 
What I want to know is, do we get t78+marching time before a Hammy DoW? If so, that should be enough for us to build our Kyoto stack, and then build a few units to defend against Hammy?
The other possibility is he has an amphibious stack.
That was why I asked if the AREAAI_OFFENSIVE is checked every turn. Don't you think that marching orders occur as soon as there is a prepared SoD and it's AREAAI_OFFENSIVE?

I suppose we could test it somehow.
 
That was why I asked if the AREAAI_OFFENSIVE is checked every turn. Don't you think that marching orders occur as soon as there is a prepared SoD and it's AREAAI_OFFENSIVE?

I suppose we could test it somehow.

Found it. He needs a SoD and a target city. If he has those, he can even switch war plan early. :eek:
He'll be coming once the stack is together.

Can you build a scout in Zlatorog? A few turns' warning is exactly what we need.
 
We could finish the chop this turn into a scout or an axe, either completed next turn. An axe shouldn't have any problem surviving a barb and is useful as a defender.
 
I suppose that would be the safest bet. We could always whip another axe in Zlatorog and there are two more chops worth 30h as of T75. The warrior could even be upgraded in a pinch. Maybe we should build a road at Zlatorog-W as well, so units can get to the chokepoint immediately.

So this would allow the rest of our empire to continue as planned.

The only other issue would be roading from Delhi to Zlatorog-S. We don't really have the worker-turns, but the Zlatorog worker can focus on roading, assuming Zlatorog is going to whip at pop3 anyway. It could either whip an axe or the rest of the granary, depending on what the scouting axe reports.

It's about time we found out what all the other teams know about Hammy's land, for that matter.
 
Pre-Play Plan T70-forward

Okay, guys, consider my suggestion in the last post my new Pre-Play Plan. That is, everything stays the same for now, except that Zlatorog mobilizes for war with Hammy, chopping a scouting axe immediately, building another axe by hand, while roading from Zlatorog-W to the SE and taking things turn by turn.
 
I suppose that would be the safest bet. We could always whip another axe in Zlatorog and there are two more chops worth 30h as of T75. The warrior could even be upgraded in a pinch. Maybe we should build a road at Zlatorog-W as well, so units can get to the chokepoint immediately.

So this would allow the rest of our empire to continue as planned.

The only other issue would be roading from Delhi to Zlatorog-S. We don't really have the worker-turns, but the Zlatorog worker can focus on roading, assuming Zlatorog is going to whip at pop3 anyway. It could either whip an axe or the rest of the granary, depending on what the scouting axe reports.

It's about time we found out what all the other teams know about Hammy's land, for that matter.
That's what I was looking for.
I'm happy with one axe now and then decide on a granary or axe when the time comes to whip. If there's a mega-stack coming, we'll have to re-evaluate.

@Dhoom: a fort won't really provide much benefit against a CR1 axe. Certainly not enough to justify the worker turns.
 
Wow! A fully fortified axe in the forested chokepoint versus unfortified against TOku's attacking axe is 4.5% odds compared to 21% odds. :eek: That's an outrageous jumppoint.
 
Wow! A fully fortified axe in the forested chokepoint versus unfortified against TOku's attacking axe is 4.5% odds compared to 21% odds. :eek: That's an outrageous jumppoint.

That sounds like two jump points - we need only 4 hits to win, and he needs 7 hits (at full fortify)
Without fortification, it's 5 vs 6.
edit: 5% fortify puts us up over a jump point to ~85% odds (the odds from memory; the jump point is definite).
 
Hopefully some more of you will chime in some time today so I can play tomorrow. If all goes well, then Dhoom will be able to take over while he's got his window opportunity.
 
Sorry. I've been out all day. I'm fine with the plan.

On the way home, I was thinking about the need for roads to Zlatorog and Chandi. We are very vulnerable to a naval attack and have no way to get troops quickly north or west... EDIT: That Zlatorog worker has a lot to do with chops, farms and roads...

Play on, LC!
 
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