Civ IV combat odds are rigged.

You can lose even if the game displays 100%. I have. Full hp knight vs damaged cata, cata wins! That's one you don't forget.

Another one you don't forget is when you're screwing around warrior rushing on immortal just to see what happens and attack an archer in a city at <.1% odds, winning the fight. Heroic epic is instantly unlocked!
 
Bit of a tangent perhaps, but I thought it was pretty odd to see a Trebuchet after a battle with "0.0/4" health. Checked the combat log and it had 1/100 left. Lucky bastard! :D

(I have a couple of screenshots, though not of the odds, which was probably crap, so I got lucky with that one).
 
I've lost plenty of >95% combats during my playing of Civ4. I can tolerate that occasional loss when the other guy gets redlined. What really makes me want to ragequit is when I lose a 75%-80% combat and the other guy isn't even scratched.
 
Even though I truly believe that
A) things are truly random
B) the odds are fair

...whenever my warlord unit has anywhere from a 89.4% chance to 98.6% chance of winning...something superstitious hits me and I'll send some 18% Poor Bloody Pikeman (Poor bloody infantry if in the industrial) in FIRST just on the HOPES it'll damage the lead unit and get my GG's odds up to >99.99....

....when the odds end in XX.6%....nope....won't do it....can't do it.......don't trust the number 6....never have, never will.

But if for some reason the odds of victory are 70.1%....I'll charge with a longbow unit...that percentage has always been good to me.
 
Even though I truly believe that
A) things are truly random
Not quite. A truly random thing by its' very nature will only randomly appear. (Said my Philosophy Prof :crazyeye:). Besides, a computer can only approximate a random number, but it does a fairly good job.

B) the odds are fair as they can be
Fixed. But there is nothing in the SDK random functions that actively gives an advantage to the AI. They are genuinely pseudo random, as they should be.
 
The following is a conversation between a home owner and a tiler - the tiler was there to lay some tiles in the bathroom ...

Owner: Here are the tiles I want you to lay in my bathroom.
Tiler: Ok. You have a large collection of small white tiles and a small collection of small black tiles
Owner: Yep - that's right. It should look very nice.
Tiler: How do you want me to mix them together ... a pattern or ...
Owner: Oh - just randomly is fine.

That afternoon, after the tiler had put the tiles down, the owner returned ...

Owner: Hey - you have two black tiles that are side by side.
Tiler: Yep.
Owner: I asked for a random scattering of black tiles.
Tiler: Yes you did and that is exactly what I have done.
Owner: No ... you cannot have two black tiles together in a random pattern.
Tiler: Oh ... you didn't mean random distribution, you meant uniform distribution.
 
I'll bet you're the handsomest Aussie tiler in NY, Mr. Random. ;)

Actually, I have no idea what you really do, but I can picture you explaining this in your charming accent, chiseled good looks, ripped abs, and rough hands... Sorry, just working myself into a state of disinterest, I have a patient soon. :lol:

But I hope the other girls enjoyed that. :D

Back on topic, even if the tiler just relied on the random function as pulling the different tiles out of the box in a random order, the tile job would still be pseudo random as the truly random pattern would only appear randomly. If there were a different tiler for every tile, it might be more random.
 
^ thanks for fixing my opening statements, LM.
Perhaps I should have said "I don't think the computer/game 'cheats' " ?

but... (i'll snipe ruff's motif here...)
me: so tiler, can you do the job.

Tiler: I have a 98.6 percent chance of getting the job done beyond your wildest expectations.

Me (phreakin' out) : Oh....well...forget it then! It's got a 100% chance of failing to be done beyond my wildest expectations!
 
Back on topic, even if the tiler just relied on the random function as pulling the different tiles out of the box in a random order, the tile job would still be pseudo random as the truly random pattern would only appear randomly. If there were a different tiler for every tile, it might be more random.
Just for the hell of it, I'm going to post some philosophical ideas about randomness.

The way I see it is that "random" can be thought of as meaning "uncorrelated to stuff". Truly perfectly flawlessly random would mean "uncorrelated to anything else in the universe". That's one possible definition for randomness.

For tiling using a pseudo random number generator, the tile pattern would end up being correlated to the output of the PRNG, but I don't think that correlation would be of any significance to anybody, and so I'd still call it random.

Now, here's a kicker, some people might like to suggest that the tile placement would be random if it was based on the nuclear decay of some radioactive isotope, or some other quantum mechanical effect which is known to be truly random... Well, let me put this to you: if the tile placement was determined by this random nuclear decay, then it still wouldn't be truly perfectly flawlessly random because it would be correlated to the nuclear decay!

The nuclear decay cannot be predicted in advance, but the tile placement can be predicted by anyone else who happens to be watching the same nuclear decays. So in the time between the truly random input (the nuclear decay) and the tiles actually being placed, there is nothing random about the placement at all. It's completely predetermined. The tiles are not placed, but you know exactly where they are going to go. So it is not truly perfectly flawlessly random. It is, however, only correlated with some stuff which probably has no other practical significance, and cannot be predicted, and so on - so for all intents and purposes I think it's fair enough to call it random... just not in the very strictest sense.

Another possible definition of "random" is that true randomness cannot be predicted in advance. So if something is truly perfectly flawlessly random, that would mean not even an omniscience god would be able to predict the outcome of the randomness. Again, various quantum mechanical effects would match this definition, but basically nothing else would. However, since I think we can assume there are no omniscience gods among us, we can settle for just basing our randomness on stuff which is very difficult to know. For example, for basic needs, flipping a coin is good enough to be 'random'. Maybe the outcome could be predicted if we knew exactly how hard the coin would be struck, and how the air was behaving around the coin and so on; but since we don't know those things, the coin flip can be thought of as random. For more serious randomness – used, for example, to generate secure cryptographic keys for money transactions and whatnot – we typically settle for things like the precise fraction of a second at which network signals reach our computer, or at which keys are struck, and so on. (here is a link describing what I'm talking about.) By using a bunch of difficult to know things, and mashing them up together into a big soup which could only be predicted by someone who knows all of the difficult to know stuff; we are able to generate a sequence of number which are unpredictable. The sequence still isn't truly perfectly flawlessly random, because an omniscience being could still predict the sequence, but that stuff is random enough for us to trust it with our life's savings! (As I said, money transactions over the internet rely on this kind of thing.)

Again, with the tiler using the nuclear decay random source thing; if you think of the nuclear decay source as part of the process of tiling, then I suppose you could say it was completely random because it is is completely unpredictable - but if you do not think of them as separate events, then the tiling is not random, because anyone who views the nuclear decays would then be able to predict the sequence used in the tiling.

The bottom line is that truly perfect flawless randomness is extremely rare; because it's pretty difficult to hide stuff from an omniscience being... But to hide information from humans is not hard, and so we can effectively get randomness just by flipping a coin, or using a pseudo random number generator - and that 'pseudo' randomness is completely indistinguishable from truly perfect flawless randomness as long as we are unable to determine the required information.

By the way, games are usually programmed so that the 'required information' that the PRNG is based on is deliberately not secret, because they like to be able to reproduce the same sequence of 'random' numbers for save games, or for multiplayer network games, and so on. ie. in many games, true randomness is actually not something we want.

[* By the way, I've not studied the philosophy of randomness or anything like that. But I do know a fair bit about quantum mechanics and mathematics... and I've basically just made up these definitions and thoughts based on that knowledge. Let me know if you think I'm off the mark.]
 
Code:
Tiling a 
bathroom 
randomly
is nuts. 
         Raw data        Is white
         is not a        noise in
         pleasing        headsets
         tableau.        musical?
                No since
                it lacks
                meanings
                or form.
Honestly
da tiler
surely'd
had such
        requests
        prior to
        RuffHi's
        anecdote
                everyone
                asks for
                a random
                tileset!
                        Somebody
                        zap this
                        thread..
                        facepalm
 
This thread is doing a fairly good job of portraying randomness. :sheep:
 
the tiler story wasn't about randomness or uniformity ... it was that they lay person mixes up the two ... or doesn't understand what random really means.

For example, which of the following string of dice rolls is 'more' random?

444444444444444444444444444444444444
561252325734251345456134534525614352
Spoiler :
Edit: I hope someone spots my 2 little jokes.
 
Well, I got one of them, but it's early. :sleep:

[* By the way, I've not studied the philosophy of randomness or anything like that. But I do know a fair bit about quantum mechanics and mathematics... and I've basically just made up these definitions and thoughts based on that knowledge. Let me know if you think I'm off the mark.]
I'm not so fabulous at mathematics, myself, but I understand a little about quantum mechanics. I like your theory. :)
 
TheMeInTeam said:
Another one you don't forget is when you're screwing around warrior rushing on immortal just to see what happens and attack an archer in a city at <.1% odds, winning the fight. Heroic epic is instantly unlocked!

Would that suggest that the best score in HoF duel map is a warrior rush?
 
You don't have anything useful or relevant to add? Piss off.

strange. thats what i say. next thing you know those moderators rush over and censor everthing. And the people who respond on my threads act like THEY are moderators. I hate hypocrits...

Moderator Action: Public Discussion of Moderator Action is not allowed on this site - necrobumping for no added content is not acceptable either for that matter. - ori
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889
 
Would that suggest that the best score in HoF duel map is a warrior rush?

There are more components to score than victory date, you'd actually have to milk duel considerably before killing the AI. However if you mean victory date then obviously yes...although Inca's version drastically reduces the # of attempts you'd need to get a W.
 
I never pay too much attention to combat odds particularly because when i can kill cavalry with a 4 combat bonus to mounted units with a 20% on a regular basis i throw the combat odds out because i don't think it tallies up the bonuses added sure it says it on the screen in green but i don't think it adds that to the combat odds.
 
We've covered this ground: as glitchy as the interface can be, Civilization isn't some grassroots project by a bunch of scrubs (well that's debatable). The community it serves is vast and any bugs have been intelligently routed out.
 
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