SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

An important point is that we might not actually have 6 turns of delay here. Why? Well, the later that we generate a Great Person in Marble, the more dillution our Scientists will have on the Great Person probability of becoming a Great Prophet. So, preferably, Marble City will be one of our LAST Great People to be spawned. Since it will already have a good number of Great Prophet Points, we will most likely delay hiring Specialists here for quite some time.

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We can't delay GP generation here that long. It has to produce either our 2nd or 3rd GP(preferably third). This is because if we generated a GS from there the best use for it is to lightbulb optics, and if we got a prophet and needed to self tech it then we would need to start researching it before the 4th GP was generated.

So, if mdy is willing to compromise and actually research Currency, then I am on board with going:
1. Math -> Currency
AND
2. Trading/gifting around Math as soon as possible (forget the free Gold, we can get it in other ways, such as by demanding it or by trading other techs), with the hopes of actually being able to get Calendar in trade on time
AND
3. Putting our main-strategy Great-Person-Generation back as the primary goal, instead of saving 1 turn of self-teching Research as our primary goal

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I definately agree with points 2) and 3) . Whether self teching currency pays off is something of a gamble, but as it is pretty marginal either way I am OK with us researching it ourselves.


I think it might be worth putting all our espionage on Cathy now. We could probably see what she is reseacrhing on a useful timescale, and I suspect it might be more useful than knowing what the tech(William) leader is researching.

babybluepants said:

Willem throws a bit of a wrench in things, since I've seen him beeline Currency and even (possibly) trade it at monopoly.

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While it is possible that Willem will go for Currency, since he values it pretty highly at a value of "50," he won't trade it at Monopoly.

I just checked in a test game:
Willem or Cathy would trade Currency to us if at least 1 other AI knew it

Vicky would trade it to us if at least one other AI that she knows were to know Currency, but only if she doesn't meet as many AIs as Ragnar has met

Ragnar, who has the same propensity to trade a tech as does Vicky, requires 2 others to know Currency, given the amount of AIs that he already knows. Vicky would be in the same situation if she met more AIs


Without doing the math on the subject to confirm, you can probably once again blame the same bug that affects us for Math, since Currency has both a Market and a Forum affecting the AIs' willingness to trade it around.


So, we'd be stuck with the same problem as Math: waiting on multiple AIs to research it.

mdy said:

I think it might be worth putting all our espionage on Cathy now. We could probably see what she is reseacrhing on a useful timescale, and I suspect it might be more useful than knowing what the tech(William) leader is researching.

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Well, we'd lose info on Willem within 1, at most 2 turns of play.

Cathy right now has "Can See Research" costing 79 Espionage Points.

However, when we contrast thing with Ragnar, who has only spent 12 Espionage Points on us, we see a value for "Can See Research" of 95 Espionage Points.

Isabella, who has spent 72 Espionage Points on us, has a value for "Can See Research" of 135 Espionage Points.

So, it is probably reasonable to assume that we will need to spend somewhere between 95 and 135 Espionage Points, as Cathy will start spending-back on us once we start spending on her.

Let's say 100 Espionage Points, that's a 25 turn wait.

I don't know about you, but I'd rather see Willem's Research for that entire time, rather than lose visibility on everyone else's Research for 23 to 24 turns, and then only get 1 AI's Research visible as our "reward."

So, it looks like we'll be going for Math at a 100% Science Rate. I should be able to resume play shortly.


One more attempt at getting us to settle Iron City 1W of where mdy suggested: we can Chop the Silk's Forest, and it will be worth slightly more Hammers (okay, okay, only 4 more Hammers, haha). Still, we could certainly go Granary -> Monument -> Lighthouse and still have a decent City. Still a "no," huh? Well, I tried.

Anyway, we have a couple of turns before we need to decide about Iron City in case anyone is convinced by my "incredibly compelling +4 Hammers" argument.

Well, I went to unload one Worker in Stone City and then realized that I could unload both Workers, as the Galley would just be heading east anyway. So, I bought us a free Worker action... not that it will really matter much, since now one of the Workers is just going to have not much else to do except maybe spend a turn Roading a Desert as the "free" Worker action next turn, haha.

It is Turn 135, 625 BC.

As planned, Gold City has grown to Size 8 with 1 Unhappiness. The 1 Unhappiness will last for 5 more turns. Our Great Scientist is also due in 5 turns.

We still haven't received Confucianism, while the deadline for deciding if we're going to switch into Organized Religion or not is fast approaching.


Oops, I forgot to check if we can put this decision off until Turn 138 or if we'd have to decide on Turn 137.


There is still also the "wait and pray" approach, which, in real life, does actually not tend to work as well as the "pray then act by going after what you prayed for" approach, but sometimes works out.

It is Turn 136, 600 BC.

Paris has regrown to Size 5 and The Pyramids are listed as being complete in 8 turns. As per our plan, a later-hired Engineer will allow us to complete The Pyramids 1 turn earlier than this date (i.e. on Turn 143 instead of Turn 144).


Pig City has completed its Granary and is working on a Lighthouse (actually, it completed the Granary last turn).


Our Settler and 1 Worker have landed on Iron Island, while another Worker is now loaded in our Galley. Our Work Boat is "standing by" to next the Clam and the Trireme is keeping watch over our waters.

It is Turn 137, 575 BC.

We need to decide on where to settle Iron City. Okay, it doesn't look like I have any supporters for my Silken ideas, so it'll probably be where mdy suggested, unless someone else speaks up soon.


In the meantime, since we don't yet have Confucianism, I'm going to have to check in a test game how the revolting timing is going to work... i.e. if we Revolt on this turn versus next turn (versus maybe even 1 turn later but probably not), which is the absolute last turn that we can revolt into Organized Religion such that we'll still be able to change Civics on the turn that The Pyramids is built.



So, we will also want to decide: do we Revolt to Organized Religion for the sole purpose of whipping out a Confucian Missionary? I say "sole purpose" because realistically, we won't be able to make any bonus Hammers out of the Organized Religion Civic, so getting a Confucian Missionary would be the only benefit.


While I'm looking at a test game, I might as well check: will Marble City growing in 1 turn without the Warrior give us +1 Unhappiness or + 2 Unhappiness? If +1, then I can just grow and get a Warrior Military Police unit in 2 turns, but if it's +2, then I'll have to switch a Coast to a Citizen Specialist as per the PPP.


Oh yeah, one more bit of news: Willem is researching Compass. I don't really see how that fact will help us much, other than a tiny fraction of piggyback Research, as there's going to be virtually no chance that a second AI will tech it and thus allow us to trade for it, but the situation is what it is.

Okay, so if we switch Civics on Turn 137, then we can switch them again on Turn 143. However, due to switching into Organized Religion, The Pyramids' completion date gets pushed back 1 turn until Turn 144.

Thus, we can wait until Turn 138 to decide whether to Revolt into Organized Religion or not.

Praying for Confucianism spread this turn...

Also, if we grow Marble City, we will suffer just 1 Unhappiness, not 2 Unhappiness. Therefore, I no longer need to convert the Coast into a Specialist Citizen, as we have 1 Happiness to counter-act the 1 Unhappiness. Yaaaaa! Well, a it is small "yaaa," but it is a "yaaa" none-the-less!

Alright, I guess I am going to have to bow to the lack of enthusiasm on wanting to settle the Iron City in order to eventually be able to connect-up Silk.


I mean, we're going to get Calendar if we're getting Astronomy, so you'd think that it would be a good idea, but apparently it's not a "good enough" idea. Bleh.

It seems like the AIs have decided that it is a good idea to Open a lot of Borders with each other:



In particular, Willem + Ragnar and Vicky + Ragnar.

Getting the silk just takes too much effort -- better to have a city that can produce returns more quickly. If it turns out we're happy capped during our whipping spree, we can go settle the silk with a settler.

It is still Turn 137.

Okay, I have settled Iron City where mdy requested, so that both of the Clam Resources are within our initial-9-square radius. I've started building a Granary, which I think will work better than a Lighthouse since we'll work the Iron at City Size 2.

Both Workers have arrived on Iron Island.


I have renegotiated both Resource deals with Cathy (she still would not give more than a Cow for our Marble).


I don't think that there's much else to do this turn, so we're soon going to be faced with the decision of whether or not we'll Revolt into Organized Religion.

Oh, ummm, yeah, there is one more thing that I noticed:

RAGNAR HAS HIS HANDS FULL!!!!! Never a dull moment, huh?

We, of course, are his Worst Enemy:



However, it should be noted that AIs DO NOT CARE about who their Worst Enemy is for a war declaration.

Ragnar has these values for a successful declaring war "dice roll" being cancelled:
Friendly 100% chance
Pleased 90% chance
Cautious 50% chance
Annoyed 0% chance

So, really, anyone could be a target, as he isn't Friendly towards anyone.

With him being Annoyed with 3 players (us being one of them), it's anybody's guess as to whom he is going to go after.

I have already moved our Work Boat explorer this turn, who was trying to explore around the Horse Island. I guess that I will complete this circuit of that island (since I'm already just over halfwayr around it already) and will then park the Work Boat between Ragnar and us, to hopefully give us a bit of advance warning of any Galleys sailing our way.

By the way, Willem's Work Boat Explorer and Isabella's Work Boat Explorer just appear to be mapping-out our lands, the little buggers.

They'll probably eventually go and meet Vicky, which could work for us or against us in the tech-trading game... the more AIs that don't have a tech that an AI knows, the less likely it will be willing to trade it around, but if Vicky and, say, Willem were to both know a tech, at present, they wouldn't trade it, but if they met, then at least Willem and maybe Vicky (if she only meets Willem and no one else and depending upon the tech) would be likely to trade it.

I'm not sure that there's much point in trying to control that situation by Closing Borders, so we'll just live with whatever situation comes up as a result on the tech-trading front.

Unit bragging summary:
Willem = Spearman
Cathy = Spearman
Ragnar = Axeman
Vicky = Axeman
Isabella = Archer