Merlot Mafia: Chiang's Last Stand

Úmarth;9257803 said:
I at least only voted for you because other people had, and I didn't want to split the vote. The reason and logic was that somebody had to die, but we really had no evidence to go on. Don't take it personally.

Indeed. There was the logic of you jumping on a bandwagon, and thus being suspicious - which turned out to be false, but which was a line of reasoning nonetheless.
 
I'm going to do something extremely dangerous right now. I am the Minister of Education - which means that yes, I have a special ability too - I can investigate the guilt of another minister during night. This probably means I will die this night, but in that case at least I have died for a cause. I chose to investigate Tboy last night, and I have discovered that he is indeed innocent. Based on this, I now know that two people here are innocent (myself, and Tboy) - and I believe whb is honest when he claims to be a minister too. Albeit - whb might be a communist, trying to feign innocence by claiming to be a honest and upright member of our cabinet - but it might be a bit odd that the communist would be granted such a powerful ability. On the other hand - the communist is heavily outnumbered by the ministers, and could perhaps have been granted a powerful ability to compensate.

If we choose to believe whb, and thus leave him out of the equation, we're left with two individuals who can be the communist, based on my line of reasoning; namely, Umarth or Slaze. This, of course, also depends upon whether or not my fellow ministers choose to believe in me - I hope my sincerity, and grave risk taking when revealing my role, eases some of the doubts anyone might have though.

So, Minister Umarth and Minister Slaze - what have you to say for yourselves, if you please?
 
I can assure you whb, that my initial vote was entirely cast at random in order to get the ball rolling - on the entirely spurious grounds of you having the shortest username. As a MINISTER (hate to go on about it, but you don't appear to believe me), I had no clue who, if anyone, has special abilities.
It was a guess, from the information available at the time. As it happens, it seems to have been a wrong guess. Assuming Caledorn is not the spy, you have been cleared; and if Caledorn was the spy (and there was only one spy), I can't see why he'd resolve the dispute for us rather than help set us up as the next two lynchings.

That's so long as my earlier assumption that there's just one spy is true -- but I'm getting more and more aware that I've not got a good record of guessing correctly so far! (Who knows, perhaps we have so many abilities that we are indeed supposed to get it right tonight or lose?)

Also, you presume that the communist in our ranks a). knows who has special abilities and b). knew who our dear departed minister for health was liable to protect. While this is certainly a possibility, sheer chance could well be responsible for such things - especially since, as looks increasingly likely, a number among us posess special abilities; someone with an ability was therefore quite likely to be hit.
It would appear so.

I am not quite ready to cast my vote yet. whb seems rather too eager to pin the blame on others, and rather too concerned with myself to the almost total absence of analysing others - suspicious stuff if I ever saw it. Still, he could simply be doing so to force me to give information that helps him better judge my guilt. I shall await further discussion
We are all in the business of trying to pin the blame on others. As I know I'm honest, of course the spy must be one of the rest of us. But then if I wasn't honest, I'd still be saying that! In any case, at this stage I think I should take Caledorn's word that you are innocent, so feel free to keep your information under your hat.
 
So, Minister Umarth and Minister Slaze - what have you to say for yourselves, if you please?

Err... I'm innocent? What else can I say?

I think we all have special abilities, so there's no harm in confirming that I do too. But I don't want to reveal what it is, at least not while it's still night and the traitor is presumably plotting who to kill as we speak.
 
Vindication! Thank you, Caledorn. I can assure you that I am a genuine minister, and not a talented communist.

Since it's not going to single me out any more, I feel that I can reveal that I too have a special ability. However, I feel it is too risky to say what it is right now - we should deny the communist as much information as is reasonable to do so. (Though I should like to point out to Umarth that, for another 24 hours, it is still day).

As Caledorn says - and I feel inclined to believe him, unless he is an extremely devious infiltrator - it seems there are only two suspects remaining: Umarth and Slaze. I know that I am innocent; Caledorn seems almost certain to be so too; and judging by whb's posts, I am fairly sure (although not certain) that he is innocent.

Slaze, alas, has not been particularly active this time round, so we do not have so much to judge him by. Umarth, however, has posted a reasonable amount, and a rather suspicious amount too, it seems to me - just enough to appear a reasonably committed ministerial player, not quite enough to give anything away. Unless he or someone else can convince me otherwise before the day is out, I must therefore declare my voting intentions:

vote: Umarth
 
Oh. I thought it was night for some reason, that's why I was so cagey in my last post. This is where I stand:

I also believe Caledorn, and so I'm fairly certain he and Tboy are innocent*.

whb I'm not at all convinced by. Being able to swing a tie seems like a better ability for a mafioso than an innocent. His posts also seems very convoluted and I can't put my finger on it but I get the feeling he's working on a different set of information and/or goals. But, for now, I will believe him.

That leaves me and slaze. Obviously I know I'm innocent, but that isn't much good to the rest of you. But last game I accused slaze on the basis of inactivity, and although he turned out to be innocent and became active shortly after, I think the reasoning is sound. If people are going to assume that silence=not playing, then not posting is certainly a good tactic for a mafioso. And in the event that we're both innocent, isn't it better to lynch a non-participating innocent than an active one? From what I gather in the other game I'm playing atm experienced players (which I am not) lynch inactive players first, for these reasons. You can always get me tomorrow :lol:

* fairly certain. We've already established that there is probably only one communist, so if Caledorn is the one and he made up that power he could of course pick any one of us to name as innocent and not be contradicted. If he happened to make the other traitor in a two-mafia situation, it would be an effective way of making the pair known to each other. But sometimes you just have to take things on trust.
 
Úmarth;9260774 said:
That leaves me and slaze. Obviously I know I'm innocent, but that isn't much good to the rest of you. But last game I accused slaze on the basis of inactivity, and although he turned out to be innocent and became active shortly after, I think the reasoning is sound. If people are going to assume that silence=not playing, then not posting is certainly a good tactic for a mafioso.
True. But there is some corroborating evidence for slaze's absence being genuine: the great king Indiansmoke has posted the last two screenshots in the Great Hall, where normally slaze would do it. (And slaze missed his vote.)

It's still possible that slaze is the villain and left standing instructions for landlubber to be murdered before he left. But I don't think the absence itself is a ploy (surely the King wouldn't be complicit in that!)
 
I just noticed something, Úmarth.

Here's your explanation to Zorag for why you voted for him in the first round:

Úmarth;9257803 said:
I at least only voted for you because other people had, and I didn't want to split the vote.

But actually when you voted for him, it did split the vote (2-2 at the time you voted), and you had this to say:

Úmarth;9249562 said:
I'll be a coward then, and leave the casting vote to somebody else.

Vote: Zorag

Why the discrepancy?
 
Úmarth;9260774 said:
whb I'm not at all convinced by. Being able to swing a tie seems like a better ability for a mafioso than an innocent. His posts also seems very convoluted and I can't put my finger on it but I get the feeling he's working on a different set of information and/or goals. But, for now, I will believe him.

That leaves me and slaze. Obviously I know I'm innocent, but that isn't much good to the rest of you. But last game I accused slaze on the basis of inactivity, and although he turned out to be innocent and became active shortly after, I think the reasoning is sound. If people are going to assume that silence=not playing, then not posting is certainly a good tactic for a mafioso. And in the event that we're both innocent, isn't it better to lynch a non-participating innocent than an active one? From what I gather in the other game I'm playing atm experienced players (which I am not) lynch inactive players first, for these reasons. You can always get me tomorrow :lol:

I do agree with your dubiousness towards whb (My apologies if this is incorrect, whb - but your posts ARE very convoluted, and there's something slightly odd about them) - however, I also agree with what you are saying here in regards to inactivity.

As such :

Vote : slaze
 
True. But there is some corroborating evidence for slaze's absence being genuine: the great king Indiansmoke has posted the last two screenshots in the Great Hall, where normally slaze would do it. (And slaze missed his vote.)

It's still possible that slaze is the villain and left standing instructions for landlubber to be murdered before he left. But I don't think the absence itself is a ploy (surely the King wouldn't be complicit in that!)

Ah, but if you check slaze's userpage, you can see that he has been checking the forums at least. So he has not been entirely inactive - but he might have been in a hurry...
 
I just noticed something, Úmarth.

Here's your explanation to Zorag for why you voted for him in the first round:



But actually when you voted for him, it did split the vote (2-2 at the time you voted), and you had this to say:



Why the discrepancy?
Forgetfulness. The point is, I didn't vote for Zorag because I thought he was mafia. I voted for Zorag because somebody needed to die to get the ball rolling. I think that's true of everybody else too.
 
I do agree with your dubiousness towards whb (My apologies if this is incorrect, whb - but your posts ARE very convoluted, and there's something slightly odd about them)
There's a perfectly simple explanation for that: I'm just odd :lol: (and had been trying to role play the posts a bit too much).
 
Úmarth;9260774 said:
Oh. I thought it was night for some reason, that's why I was so cagey in my last post.

I'm going to break the 1-1 tie. I'm sorry Umarth, but the quote above is why I'm going to vote for you. I don't really believe you thought it was still night (you knew landlubber had already been murdered) and it's the sounds like the sort of thing a mafia might say to put us off his trail ("surely it can't be me -- I didn't even know when night finished, and the mafia would".) If it turns out I'm a twit, and slaze's silence is more significant then I'm sorry.

vote: Úmarth
 
There's a perfectly simple explanation for that: I'm just odd :lol: (and had been trying to role play the posts a bit too much).

Let's hope you're speaking the truth - even if you are guilty, you would be obliged to say something like this. :D

One of my Amazon ancestors ran into a bit of trouble of her own because she was a bit too freely outspoken with her opinions - which sadly got her lynched, even though she was quite innocent - so I know how frustrating a position it can be to have to fight for your innocence. ;)
 
Evening 2: Minister of unintelligence

The sweat dripping from your necks, you once again reached a conclusion.

(Votes: Umarth-2 Slaze-1)

The armed guards seized Umarth and dragged him kicking and screaming out of the room.

The gunshot that followed was like a thunderclap.

Soon enough, though, it dawned on you, as Chiang himself vouched for his trust in him, that:
Spoiler :
Umarth was Innocent!


Cursing quietly to yourselves, you realized your theory had been too perfect.

Whilst no-one else had such a chance to hide Communist activities than Umarth, Minister of Intelligence, it was now clear that he could not have been the infiltrator.

These revelations were deeply sobering. Even Caledorn stopped being quite so naive.

Hearts heavy with dread, you return to your rooms.

Night has fallen. Day will break in 30 hours
Spoiler :
(I won't be available till then :p)
 
Whilst no-one else had such a chance to hide Communist activities than Umarth, Minister of Intelligence, it was now clear that he could not have been the infiltrator.
Oh dear. It seems I really am rubbish at this. So sorry Umarth. Never mind; I'll probably be bumped off overnight and won't have to worry about it.
 
Or are you? I'm going to go ahead and put my money on whb as the communist. But I do wonder what this naiveté is all about. It's a shame, because tonight I could have used my ability ("scanning", like Caledorn's) to find out for sure.

I'm not sure what the rules on participating after you've been killed are, so from now on I'll just lurk. FTR though, this is how I would rank the remaining players in terms of likelihood of being mafia. Consider it my "dying breath":

1. whb - there's just something fishy about his posts. His reasons for voting for me were pretty flimsy... excuses after the fact by someone who isn't voting for the same reasons as the rest of us?
2. Tboy - I revealed my role to him by PM, but he never replied or changed his vote, even though he logged in. It could be that this is what the reference to naivete in the write-up was hinting at.
3. slaze - earlier I thought his silence made him the prime suspect. I still think it's incriminating, but he no longer seems as suspicious as whb and Tboy.
4. Caledorn - if he is, he's played it bloody well.
 
(I've cut this post... will put it back in the morning -- realised posting it before assassinations might be more useful to mafia than town, so I'll put it back when it's day)
 
Day 3: Endgame

As light dawned on day 3, it was quickly acertained that Caledorn had been killed in the night by execution with a revolver.

Who ever chose to gorily perforate the skull of this promising young Minister of Education in such a grisly manner must have been truly malevolent or way off the mark, as:

Spoiler :
Caledorn was Innocent!



Chiang found the losses, both to his forces on the ground and his cabinet, unacceptable. All those able to flee were herded onto evacuation planes to fly them to Taipei.

This included the three surviving ministers, slaze, whb and Tboy, who had a military cargo-craft all to themselves.

Tboy was staring grimly out of the still open cargo-hatch as they flew away, while the flaming stronghold-city of Chengdu finally sucuumbed to the Communist hordes.

So intent was his gaze, that he didn't notice a hand swiftly reach for his side.

But it was too late. Slaze had seized Tboy's sidearm, and blown a nice round chunk clean from the back of Tboy's head using his own revolver. The Minister of Internal Security's corpse fell forward with the momentum, to be lost amongst the rubble below.

whb was petrified. "What was that?!" he demanded, although not too forcefully to the now armed slaze. "He killed Caledorn" he explained grimly. "He had to die".

whb was flabbergasted. "So he was the Red spy?" he asked, after a while.

slaze began moving back towards the seats of the cargo-hold in silence but, as he passed whb, he slammed his knee into whb's gut with a ferocity that whb could never have expected from the seemingly mild-mannered Minister of Finance.

whb just managed to catch his footing and avoid falling out the cargo-hold and down to have his body broken thousands of feet below, but it was too late. slaze had had ample time to lift the revolver, and wasted no time in sending no less than three rounds through whb's frail torso.

The force of the blows easily knocked him over the edge, and as he fell to a certain doom, losing blood by the second, it seemed clear to the dieing Minister of Foreign Affairs that:

Spoiler :
whb was Innocent!
Tboy was Innocent!

slaze was Mafia!



Slaze looked out the plane at the quickly vanishing city, with a rye sneer across his lips. "Tboy the Communist? Now, I wouldn't exactly say that.."

Game over. Mafia are victorious.
 
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