Perhaps more a mathematical question than a scientific one, but I feel people here are probably best placed to comment. The news came out today that
bacon, ham and sausages are carcinogenic - specifically, that eating two slices of bacon (50g) per day increases your risk of colorectal cancer by 18%.
I had a look at some of the numbers. 41,600 people per year are diagnosed with colorectal cancer in the UK, 95% of whom are over 50. 65 million people live in the UK, of whom about 21 million are over 50. This means that, on average, you have a 0.0047% chance per year of getting colorectal cancer before you are 50, which works out to 0.24% over the fifty years. Assuming that you then live for another thirty years, you have a 0.19% chance per year of getting it, which works out to 5.7% overall.
Assuming that these are the rates (which they aren't) for people who eat no bacon, sausages or ham at all, we know that they increase by 18% for people who eat a relatively large amount of the stuff. This means that, if you eat two rashers of bacon a day, every day, until you turn fifty, you have not a 0.24% but a 0.28% chance of getting colorectal cancer before your fiftieth birthday. If you carry on doing this until the age of eighty, you then have not a 5.7% chance but a 6.7% chance of getting it. By my reckoning, this means that changing consumption habits will affect 4 under-50s out of 10000, and 100 over-50s. For the other 9960 under-50s and 9900 over-50s, it will make no difference.
I suppose the overall question is as follows: is this all a big fuss over nothing?