SGOTM 13 - Gypsy Kings

uploaded
Ragnar declared on Willem :) so our machinations probably cost us a lot of gold for the upgrades of galley and frigate. So insurance costs a lot...

Other info of note
Willem started Divine Right after engineering trade
Cathy is researching Nationalism and hates us
we completed our bulb plan for astronomy, gunpowder, and chemistry
Joao researched feudalism T225 which is why we aborted the war plan against him
traded drama to izzy for gold and later traded calendar to her for more gold
traded lit last turn to ragnar and joao for gold
Izzy researched machinery early in the turn set T224
I don't think Ragnar researched anything the this turn set so he is probably close to something

Moscow is up to 2754 sabotage value ~430 hammers I think working on one of 4 wonders (MoM, Notre Dame, Angor Wat, Chichen Itza) no stone or marble so hard to tell what it might be.

Anyone know if there are flavors for wonder choices as well?
apparently they do, but they tell us nothing about which wonder cathy would build
Notre Dame is growth 10; Chichen Itza is Production 10; Angkor Wat is Religion 10; MoM apparently has no flavors

Cathy is culture 5 and military 2 so... she has no preference apparently.



log

Spoiler :
Here is your Session Turn Log from 850 AD to 880 AD:

Turn 230, 850 AD: You have discovered Chemistry!
Turn 230, 850 AD: Joao II converts to Christianity!
Turn 230, 850 AD: Taoism has spread in Nidaros.

Turn 231, 860 AD: London will become unhappy on the next turn.
Turn 231, 860 AD: Clearing a Forest has created 44 ? for London.
Turn 231, 860 AD: London will grow to size 14 on the next turn.
Turn 231, 860 AD: Deal Canceled: Clam to Ragnar for Gold Per Turn (2)
Turn 231, 860 AD: You have trained a Pikeman in Marbled Clam. Work has now begun on a Longbowman.
Turn 231, 860 AD: Hinduism has spread in BC's mistake.
Turn 231, 860 AD: John Dalton (Great Scientist) has been born in Guimares (Joao II)!
Turn 231, 860 AD: Ragnar has founded Roskilde in a distant land.

Turn 232, 870 AD: London has grown to size 14.
Turn 232, 870 AD: Clearing a Forest has created 24 ? for Hastings.
Turn 232, 870 AD: Deal Canceled: Marble to Ragnar for Wheat, Gold Per Turn (2)
Turn 232, 870 AD: Silver Lode will grow to size 5 on the next turn.
Turn 232, 870 AD: You have discovered Civil Service!
Turn 232, 870 AD: You have trained a Galleon in Furry Crabs. Work has now begun on a Pikeman.
Turn 232, 870 AD: Mencius (Great Prophet) has been born in Novgorod (Catherine)!
Turn 232, 870 AD: Ragnar has declared war on Willem van Oranje!

Turn 233, 880 AD: Hastings will become unhappy on the next turn.
Turn 233, 880 AD: Silver Lode has grown to size 5.
Turn 233, 880 AD: Willem van Oranje is the worst enemy of Ragnar.
Turn 233, 880 AD: Ragnar is the worst enemy of Willem van Oranje.


autolog

Spoiler :
Turn 230/750 (850 AD) [27-May-2011 21:13:27]
A Fishing Boats was built near BC's mistake
Spicy Rice begins: Longbowman (7 turns)

Logging by BUFFY 3.19.003 (BtS 3.19)
------------------------------------------------
Turn 230/750 (850 AD) [27-May-2011 22:21:49]
Stone Mountain begins: Longbowman (7 turns)

Logging by BUFFY 3.19.003 (BtS 3.19)
------------------------------------------------
Turn 230/750 (850 AD) [28-May-2011 04:35:29]
Stone Mountain begins: Longbowman (7 turns)

Logging by BUFFY 3.19.003 (BtS 3.19)
------------------------------------------------
Turn 230/750 (850 AD) [28-May-2011 06:25:13]
100% Research: 456 per turn
0% Culture: 97 per turn
0% Espionage: 24 per turn
0% Gold: -168 per turn, 914 in the bank

After End Turn:
Tech research finished: Chemistry
York finishes: Forbidden Palace

Other Player Actions:
State Religion Change: Joao II (Portugal) from 'no State Religion' to 'Christianity'
Attitude Change: Joao II (Portugal) towards Napoleon (France), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Isabella (Spain) towards Joao II (Portugal), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'

Turn 231/750 (860 AD) [28-May-2011 06:25:14]
Research begun: Civil Service (2 Turns)
A Workshop was built near London
York begins: Barracks (6 turns)
York begins: Work Boat (4 turns)
100% Research: 453 per turn
0% Culture: 101 per turn
0% Espionage: 24 per turn
0% Gold: -110 per turn, 746 in the bank

After End Turn:
Whip anger has decreased in Clam Chowder
Stone Mountain finishes: Barracks
Marbled Clam finishes: Pikeman
London grows to size 14
London finishes: Globe Theatre
Hastings finishes: Heroic Epic
Hinduism has spread: BC's mistake

Turn 232/750 (870 AD) [28-May-2011 06:57:11]
Diplomacy: Willem van Oranje (Netherlands) offers to trade Pig to Napoleon (France) for Iron
Diplomacy: Napoleon (France) rejects trade of Iron to Willem van Oranje (Netherlands) for Pig
London begins: Barracks (4 turns)
Hastings begins: Trebuchet (4 turns)
Stone Mountain begins: Trebuchet (10 turns)
Tech traded to Joao II (Portugal): Literature
Tech traded to Ragnar (Vikings): Literature
Tech traded to Isabella (Spain): Calendar
Marbled Clam begins: Swordsman (4 turns)
100% Research: 456 per turn
0% Culture: 111 per turn
0% Espionage: 24 per turn
0% Gold: -95 per turn, 636 in the bank

After End Turn:
Whip anger has decreased in Fish Hills
Whip anger has decreased in Golden Hills
Tech research finished: Civil Service
Clam Chowder finishes: Courthouse
Paired Clams finishes: Trebuchet
Furry Crabs finishes: Galleon
Silver Lode grows to size 5

Other Player Actions:
Ragnar (Vikings) declares war on Willem van Oranje (Netherlands)
Attitude Change: Joao II (Portugal) towards Napoleon (France), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Willem van Oranje (Netherlands) towards Ragnar (Vikings), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Ragnar (Vikings) towards Willem van Oranje (Netherlands), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
 
thoughts for the next turn set

Tech Nationalism (should finish in 6 turns --says we are 7 away at 100% but it is really close to 6 turns I think) A combination of building wealth in 1 to 3 cities and another ~100 gold trade and then stretching with 1 turn of scientists instead of merchants will be enough to finish it in 6 turns I'm estimating. Or the GA trigger in 5 turns would guarantee the Nationalism in 6 turns (this would starve CC 1 pop).

After Nationalism I'm thinking Banking. Mercantilism would be better for us even short term. Long term even better since we will be losing a lot of foreign trade routes as we go to war. And with the GA it is a free switch.

we have ~17 cities soon to be more each free merchant would probably net us at least 3 research per turn over the trade route we might lose. minimum of 510 over 10 turn more like 765 research. This would increase over the coarse of the game and would also help produce the next GA.

Then Paper I like paper because we can sell maps for gold without really helping the AI, and we can easily find Izzy and help the war effort
Then Education
Then Economics which would time reasonably well with the Great person due in CC in about 16 turns. So we can have a 2nd GA after the first one with the free merchant and next great person in CC. The 2nd GA would let us build the Taj mahal at the end of the 2nd GA so that the last 30 turns of the game could be a GA. Taj mahal is probably just silly.

Beyond this turn set liberalism for cannons.

researching Steel after Nationalism is of course the alternative.

Suggested builds

CC wealth
starve CC so we can get the GA a turn earlier? probably not in my opinion, since we get Nationalism in 6 turns with just a little bit of stretch I think.
FH Galleon then Frigate
SM wealth until Nationalism, then Treb
PC Treb (switch citizen back to merchant), Treb
MC switch back to LB, Frigate (abandon mace)
GH Galleon with 1 citizen instead of merchant until GA is triggered, then back to merchant. Edit: maybe only need the citizen a few turns to produce this Galleon on a useful timeline. With the GA you will get +2 hammers it has 50 left, so could keep all the merchants and still produce galleon in 10 turns. This might produce a merchant for us but it will be late. I think we keep the merchants for the most part. definitely until nationalism for sure. This Great Merchant might be timed reasonably well with a late upgrade to cannons or just upgrades to the galleys/trireme we never bothered to upgrade.
SR turn off citizens go back to barracks, finish LB, then Treb
FC, galleon
London Barracks, then catapult for MP duty and/or siege if not needed for MP in another English city later in the game, needs 1 more Grass Farm

Nottingham Wealth for a few turns, then barracks to time its finish with nationalism, then Treb (Edit: instead of wealth and barracks possibly go straight to galleon)
abandon mace build

York gives up mine and cows after workboat finishes, then another workboat for Hittite (if go with Mercantilism plan 2 artists might compete for cathy's clams)

Hastings, Treb, Treb, Treb

Silver Lode granary then Galleon (iron next turn, chopping forest into granary) workboat coming form York for its fish

Canterbury, granary then lighthouse (I think this makes sense the seafood and the fresh water lake)

Hittite keeps artist, works on lighthouse

BC mistake eventually will be able to 2 pop whip the galleon perhaps in a slavery dip in the 2nd GA if go with economics tech path

Galleons/Galleys

I think the Galleon from FC galley chains with the trailing galleys from England and takes the back half of the units towards willem/ragnar

The front galleys (treb from PC and 6 xp catapult) time up well to galley chain with galleon that will be produced in FH in 2 turns


This going to get ugly. I was looking at just the first part. Depends on what we want to do. Get a small force asap to ragnar even before nationalism. Or set up a strike force for the turn after we get Nationalism.
screenshot has the first part if we want units asap to the frontline. the last galley white can probably do some funky offloading on the islands to get everyone over to PC (the axe,cat and 2 swords left behind)

If we go with this initial plan we could have treb, cat, 2 crIII swords (upgrade to 1 or 2 to maces?), pike, and LB with frigate bombardment on Ragnar's doorstep by T238? With draft muskets 1-2 turns behind I think.

Edit: okay elaborated further on plan to hit ragnar, suggest galley moves split between east and west side. We have the treb, cat, 2 crIII swords, pike and LB on his doorstep by T238. We have 2 more units which I believe have to be the 2nd set of swords 1.5 galleon moves back on T238 with a possible LB made in MC.


workers... Hastings needs more Grass workshops, workers are going to be stranded on PC, not sure if we actually should take one worker back to FC for 2nd fur and 3rd workshop.

Hittite needs a worker (and a galley to transport said worker, not sure where the galley is coming from...) Maybe Cathy will improve that wheat for us just before the culture borders switch back to us :)

There is a need for several workshops around Nottingham, York, Silverlode, Canterbury (as well as Hastings obviously the priority) that we need.

Might want a few workers sent over towards ragnar/willem if we expect to keep some of those cities

War thoughts

Ragnar might be a better target than Willem. I'm not sure Ragnar is really going to help much with Willem and his stack is missing and he doesn't have feudalism. So his cities will fall quickly to musketeers and trebs. Feed our treasury for upgrades and keeping tech pace and give our units some experience they will need against Willems and Cathy's units.

If we follow the galley plan I was working on... On T238 we can land units on a hill next to his capital. T239 pillage mind and road and this breaks his link to what I believe is his only iron. And on T239 we can bombard with treb, catapult and frigate (perhaps) The problem with the hill is that there is a river protecting his city. We could also swing around and land on the hill 1S of that hill and come at his capital from the south. That avoids the river but no easy option to pillage his iron. However, with this option we can likely take out his capital faster which would break his link to iron anyways. We can bombard on T239 and on T240 we can land 2 more swords and another LB if he isn't threatening another one of our cities. An archer is left behind in SR but BC's mistake or GH might be vulnerable if he has troops headed towards willem or units coming back...

Misc.
Cathy started the wonder about 13 turns ago, not sure if that eliminates any of the possible wonders she might be building because she didn't have the tech then. I don't think failure gold is worth it since she won't build it in the next 6 turns. She could also be building the Hagia Sophia

Wait could Cathy be building the AP? I think that must be it! and hinduism spread to BC's mistake...
 

Attachments

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I have the save.

thoughts for the next turn set

Thanks. Lots of food for thought.

We have a barb swordsman across the lake from York, and need a plan to be able to move a unit into Canterbury 6 turns from now. The 22 hammers on an axe in Nottingham have become a maceman and don't look to be accessible in time. Nationalism takes 6 turns but we don't get a musket from London until 7 turns from now. Hastings can build a LB in 3 that can get there in time if the workers cooperate and build a road that we'll want later anyway. We will need a long-term defender for England from barbs, so I think the LB from Hastings is the best option. This will give the barb sword the option of pillaging the iron, but if he does that then the opening drafted musket will have him for breakfast.

Tech Nationalism (should finish in 6 turns --says we are 7 away at 100% but it is really close to 6 turns I think) A combination of building wealth in 1 to 3 cities and another ~100 gold trade and then stretching with 1 turn of scientists instead of merchants will be enough to finish it in 6 turns I'm estimating. Or the GA trigger in 5 turns would guarantee the Nationalism in 6 turns (this would starve CC 1 pop).

Yeah, some juggling of wealth builds and specialists and/or cash trades does indicate that Nationalism in 6 is possible.

After Nationalism I'm thinking Banking. Mercantilism would be better for us even short term. Long term even better since we will be losing a lot of foreign trade routes as we go to war. And with the GA it is a free switch.

we have ~17 cities soon to be more each free merchant would probably net us at least 3 research per turn over the trade route we might lose. minimum of 510 over 10 turn more like 765 research. This would increase over the coarse of the game and would also help produce the next GA.

We currently have 58:commerce: in 18 trade routes from Cathy and Joao. WvO gives 4 for 20:commerce: and Rag 3 for 9:commerce:. If all of those became internal, what do we have? At the moment we have 9 internal trade routes, all of 3:commerce: to London. That won't stay that way, because we'll draft London down eventually. So conservatively, our 25 new internal trade routes will provide somewhat more than 2:commerce: each per turn. So, we lose 58+20+9 and gain a bit more than 50. Call that a loss of 35:commerce:. We gain 17 free specialists, and assuming we keep at least one of Rep and Caste, we can't do worse than a citizen (1:hammers:3:science:) or a merchant (3:gold: probably 3:science:) If they're all Rep merchants, we gain 51:gold:51:science:.

If we DOW Rag, his 9:commerce: drops to 6-9:commerce: in internal routes, anyway. When we DOW WvO, that 20:commerce: becomes 8-12:commerce:. So the expected profit from Mercantilism is a bit higher than the above, because of expected losses to trade routes from warring.

At about our current sustainable tech rate, Banking will take 3 turns and Steel 14.

Banking isn't free, however (1638:science:) and that delays anything else we want to do - like get Steel. Net of the lost trade routes, the free specialists pay for Banking in about 25 turns. The rest is profit, and will increase as we take more cities. This will constrain us to keep using Rep, rather than consider using Police State to help produce our navy and cannons. If we switch to slavery temporarily (e.g. at the same time as the Nationalism switch on the opening turn or two of the GAge in 5-6 turns time, and then back to CoL and Merc 5 turns after that), then about half of our cities will have to run the Mercantilism specialist as a spy or citizen for lack of other infrastructure, about a quarter have to run a citizen, and the last quarter can run a scientist or engineer or something. That does eat into the return of Mercantilism a bit.

So I'm happy to tech Banking after Nat and before Steel, and with a temporary slavery switch for whipping 5-6 of the home island cities, but we have to keep Rep.

Then Paper I like paper because we can sell maps for gold without really helping the AI, and we can easily find Izzy and help the war effort
Then Education
Then Economics which would time reasonably well with the Great person due in CC in about 16 turns. So we can have a 2nd GA after the first one with the free merchant and next great person in CC. The 2nd GA would let us build the Taj mahal at the end of the 2nd GA so that the last 30 turns of the game could be a GA. Taj mahal is probably just silly.

Beyond this turn set liberalism for cannons.

researching Steel after Nationalism is of course the alternative.

Yeah we could tech out Economics and have a second GA, or we could tech out Steel and use our remaining economy to upgrade the rest of our obsolete units. The Golden Age gets us +1:hammers: per city tile and per :hammers: tile, and +1:commerce: per city tile, water(?) tile, quarry and plantation. We'll have population around 120, most of whom will get something... In the T213 test game, our 77 population gained 104:hammers:+:commerce: under a GA then, so with 50 more population, maybe the GA is worth a total of 150:hammers:+:commerce: per turn for 10 turns. The GA bonus :gp: are not worth much at all. Did I miss any relevant GA effects? We have to tech about 12K of base :science: to get the "second GA plus Lib->Steel" plan working. Or we just tech 6.5K of base :science: for Steel and get on with conquering.

I don't see that the return from a second GA is worth the cost of getting it. Ah want mah cannons, and I want 'em now!

Suggested builds

CC wealth
starve CC so we can get the GA a turn earlier? probably not in my opinion, since we get Nationalism in 6 turns with just a little bit of stretch I think.
FH Galleon then Frigate
SM wealth until Nationalism, then Treb
PC Treb (switch citizen back to merchant), Treb
MC switch back to LB, Frigate (abandon mace)
GH Galleon with 1 citizen instead of merchant until GA is triggered, then back to merchant. Edit: maybe only need the citizen a few turns to produce this Galleon on a useful timeline. With the GA you will get +2 hammers it has 50 left, so could keep all the merchants and still produce galleon in 10 turns. This might produce a merchant for us but it will be late. I think we keep the merchants for the most part. definitely until nationalism for sure. This Great Merchant might be timed reasonably well with a late upgrade to cannons or just upgrades to the galleys/trireme we never bothered to upgrade.
SR turn off citizens go back to barracks, finish LB, then Treb
FC, galleon
London Barracks, then catapult for MP duty and/or siege if not needed for MP in another English city later in the game, needs 1 more Grass Farm

Agree the above. London could build a pike, but Cathy has no horses. Maybe London needs to build a galleon?

Nottingham Wealth for a few turns, then barracks to time its finish with nationalism, then Treb (Edit: instead of wealth and barracks possibly go straight to galleon)
abandon mace build

York gives up mine and cows after workboat finishes, then another workboat for Hittite (if go with Mercantilism plan 2 artists might compete for cathy's clams)

Time for that later - we need boats now.

Hastings, Treb, Treb, Treb

LB first for defence against the barb sword.

Silver Lode granary then Galleon (iron next turn, chopping forest into granary) workboat coming form York for its fish

Canterbury, granary then lighthouse (I think this makes sense the seafood and the fresh water lake)

Hittite keeps artist, works on lighthouse

BC mistake eventually will be able to 2 pop whip the galleon perhaps in a slavery dip in the 2nd GA if go with economics tech path

Hmm, good luck to it. Since it won't build enough of the Galleon in time for the first round of slavery, if we don't plan for a second GA any time soon, perhaps we should built Wealth to get something useful from our folly.

Comments on war to follow
 
BC mistake eventually will be able to 2 pop whip the galleon perhaps in a slavery dip in the 2nd GA if go with economics tech path

it might produce it still... could have 4 hammers during GA working unimproved plains and with a workshop 6 hammers non-GA plus a few citizens perhaps...

Galleon in ~20 turns I think it maybe be useful...
 
So I'm happy to tech Banking after Nat and before Steel, and with a temporary slavery switch for whipping 5-6 of the home island cities, but we have to keep Rep.

we are going to have to go with slavery and nationhood at beginning of GA (and could still go with Police State here), then back to representation out of slavery and into caste and into mercantilism in the tail end of the GA, I would prefer to whip at the end of the GA but I don't think we can do it.

We would have ~5 turns to finish banking during a GA doable, but more difficult during slavery vs. caste.

My builds were not optimized for a slavery switch at beginning of GA or at least I wasn't thinking about this.

sorry I saw the barb sword while writing up the thoughts but forgot about it :(

BC's mistake could at least whip a lighthouse during slavery...

during slavery CC probably would be able to produce something useful since it will have 2 workshops...
 
we if we aren't going for the 2nd GA, I think merchants in CC after slavery ends. The Great Merchant could give us ~2000 gold if Willem's still alive. That would power us through the remaining steel and give us a few upgrades to boot.

even with the academy I think merchants are still almost as good in CC. Since the wealth from merchants allows us to maintain 100% research and get the academy bonus on commerce longer.
 
Tech Path
Aim to finish Nationalism in 6 turns by building a little bit of wealth, looking to pick up a tech-for-cash trade. If necessary start the Golden Age in 5 turns, but prefer not to. Then binary research to Banking before the end of the Golden Age, then 0% on Steel. 0% on Paper (in case it ever finishes, it might be useful one way or another)

Civic changes
In the Golden Age, switch to Police+Nat+Slavery the turn we get Nationalism. On the last turn Set timer for just 5 turns of the Golden Age (which will be in the next set) switch to US+Nat+Caste. Possibly switch to Theocracy in the first switch and back to Pacifism in the last, see below., and out to Paganism + no religion on the last GAge revolt chance (You get one the turn it opens, then one in 5, then one at the end. However if we revolt the turn after it opens we only get two chances)

Religion Changes
If we're DOWing Ragnar, I can't see a reason to switch to Buddhism. If we pick up Theology soon somehow, switch to Christianity+Theocracy together with the other early switches during the Golden Age (gets more XP on more units than Taoism, and we won't be running any specialists during the Caste-free Golden Age), and back out to Paci+Tao in the final switches, to get our last GMerchant for a trade mission for our upgrades. Keep Christianity + Theocracy if we get the chance.

Tech Trading
Check every turn for new tech trading opportunities.
Check Research Screen each turn to see if AI Civs have completed any techs.
Do we want to trade Optics to Cathy for Theocracy if the opportunity presents itself?
Trade compass to Joao, Ragnar, or Izzy if they have a decent amount of :gold: for it that would be useful for finishing Nationalism.
Do not otherwise trade with Cathy or WvO.

Other Trade Opportunities and Diplomacy
Maintain current trades
Get Izzy's gold for our horse.
Reject "Stop Trade" demands
If we have an excess resource, unload it if we can get some cash
If we have an expired deal for (easiest to check on the F4-"Active" screen by mousing over deals) and they have more income, cancel and try to get more. AIs will normally trade all their excess income for a resource up to about 10 (or more)
Check if there are other deals that can be canceled/reevaluated.
Reject research demands - there are no small techs left (but will check with the team if at all possible before doing so)
Pick up a health trade if possible before DOWing Rag, because we will lose wheat. Watch to see if wheat will arrive in Hittite.
If WvO asks us to DOW on Ragnar early, do we?

Espionage
EP on Cathy 100%, won't need to divert some to maintain research view of WvO
Spy tours Cathy and returns to Amsterdam Moscow to prepare to fortify.

Great People
Due in 5, do Golden Age then (if needed to finish Nationalism that turn), or next turn.

City Builds
With Police State, unit whips will be 55 hammers, factor this into calculations. I expect whip timing will largely be required to sync with transport requirements.

  • CC running merchants from now scientists until Nationalism in 6 turns is assured, then merchants from then. Builds wealth until Nationalism then a spy or two. Do not starve CC for earlier GAge, plan not to draft or whip CC ever, so no need for barracks
  • FH Galleon then Frigate
  • SM wealth until Nationalism, then Treb, 2-whipped
  • PC Treb (switch citizen back to merchant), treb galleon 2-whipped
  • MC switch back to LB, Frigate (abandon mace for the moment, but don't start any new LBs before finishing the mace)
  • BF Treb, frigate 2-whipped
  • FC finish pikeman, galleon 2-whipped
  • GH Galleon to finish in 10 turns with GAge, working merchants and 0 citizensNew plan GH
    grow to 10 pop (takes 3 turns, could run merchants to help with Nationalism after that)
    put 12 hammers in a treb (3 turns)
    switch back to galleon (3 turns)
    on switch to nationalism, police state, slavery (switch to treb 3 pop whip & draft down to 6 pop)
    next turn draft again finish Galleon with OF (down to 5 pop)
    next turn switch to another Treb (still at 5 pop? probably not grows to 6 again soon)
    next turn 2 pop whip Treb (can do this with OF from prior builds) (down to 4 pop)
    Regrow slowly working seafood and goldmine
  • SR turn off citizens go back to barracks, finish LB, then Treb (maybe 2-whipped)
  • London Barracks, then catapult for MP duty and/or siege if not needed for MP in another English city later in the game, needs at least 1 more Grass Farm
  • Nottingham Wealth for a few turns, then barracks to time its finish with nationalism, then Treb (instead of wealth and barracks possibly go straight to galleon) abandon mace build build us a navy! Start galleon, draft early, 2-whip galleon, time the chop usefully, 2-whip a galleon, then 2-whip a third galleon. Then leave it to lick its wounds :) This navy will do most of the heavy lifting for a strike on Moscow ASAP.
  • York gives up mine and cows after workboat finishes, starts galleon treb (maybe 2-whipped) Edit: York can't build warships, despite being able to build workboats, lighthouse and harbour. Go figure!
  • Hastings insert LB, then back to poly-Treb, marshal on hill south of Canterbury
  • SL granary (maybe whipped?) then Galleon (work iron next turn ASAP, chopping forest into granary), workboat coming form York for its fish. May 2-whip galleon.
  • Canterbury Granary then barracks then maybe lighthouse (I think this makes sense the seafood and the fresh water lake), may 2-whip barracks or 1-whip lighthouse
  • Hittite keeps artist, works on lighthouse, may 2-whip a granary edit or barracks for cash buys
  • BC Mistake wealth, then switch to lighthouse to whip early in the slavery (whenever it makes sense at the time given the population and food box), then wealth. Abandon galleon and put up sign to mock bc further :lol:

Consider shuffling an MP from CC or FH to MC to ease :mad: from transition to Police State.

Do not run spy specialists.

Drafting plan
We can draft three times each turn - we must do all 15 that will be available in my turn set.
Draft London every turn working max food after we switch to Nationalism. Hope some boats show up soon. Marshal on hill south of Canterbury. Send two muskets further south to bust fog and link up with galley incoming from PC to go to Hittite.
Otherwise, draft from all 7 of FH, SM, PC, MC, BF, FC, SR. Try to sync with available transport, remembering that the drafted unit is available to move immediately, unlike whipping.
Don't draft from CC or GH yet at all, because we still want another GMerchant from each - is both realistic?
bc wants to exempt CC from drafting to get more GMerchants. I'm happy to agree to that.
Do drafting before whipping if the whip would take us to 5 population and we're drafting this turn or soon.

That's 12 drafts. Draft 3 times from Nottingham/York/SL/CC/GH however seems best. Consider a second draft from somewhere that has a barracks and will not lose access to good food and hammers tiles through losing population and acquiring 3:mad: from the second draft.

BCM, Canterbury and Hittite are still too small to draft.

Hastings is exempt from drafting because it needs to grow to 14 more to get our HE going at full steam. Moai city MC is not exempt from drafting.

Workers
  • Strauss finish dye plantation near SR, then look for a ride to BCM's workshop or to Ragnar post-DOW
  • Yeltsin Gfarm, Pworkshop (Hastings will max out at size 14 working all the grassland land tiles including just two Gfarms, and one Pworkshop, and will get there faster if we have an extra Gfarm for now and turn a Gfarm into a Gworkshop later)
  • Hoover chop for SL, then head to improve Canterbury (temporising with a turn on a workshop farm 2E of London)
  • Eiffel finish PC workshop, look for a ride east to England
  • Stevenson finish PC workshop, look for a ride west to Ragnar
  • Goethals, Locke, de Lesseps mine iron for SL, then edit help give London at least one more grass farm (2E of London), one worker put a road on the hill SE of Canterbury with a view to a fort for the galleons coming out of Nottingham and as a departure point for units out of London and Hastings later. Otherwise, improve Canterbury, looking to do Gworkshops only after the fort will finish in good time for the navy.
  • Barlow road 2E of Hastings (for LB to defend Canterbury and spam out of Hastings later), then road to the spice for :)
  • Brunel workshop 2E of Hastings
  • Fuller finish workshop 2N of Nottingham, chop tundra forest (we ain't coming back), finish workshop 1NW of Nottingham

War Plans
Units and transports per bc's screenshots posted above. Look to send a galley to the east of England with a worker from PC once the dust clears. Look to send a worker from PC west to Ragnar once the dust clears - but make sure they both leave PC once the army is taken care of. Frigate gathers intelligence near Nidaros for DOW around T238.

Maybe side-track the pike and a CR3 sword to take care of the dye city north of Nidaros if it's just defended by two horse archers still - it will make a convenient canal route west of SR. Depends how strong Nidaros is.

Will make final plans once we can see what's left in Nidaros, but I'm going to plan to land north of Nidaros on hill SE of Nidaros on T238, according to bc. This gets our stack hill defence and no river crossing. Take Nidaros ASAP, rather than worry about pillaging the iron or pincer moves. We'll want to work the iron ourselves, of course, and since Ragnar has copper, denying him the right to build defensive swords doesn't seem worth our while :). He also won't be whipping anything too scary in Nidaros for our stack which will have longbows, a pike, trebs, and a bunch of heavy swords. Frigate helps bombard.

Reinforce with early muskets and use them to scout next city target.

Triremes split evenly to Ragnar and east of England awaiting cash upgrades to Frigates.

Stopping/Pausing Conditions
A barbarian spawns in an awkward position that I can't immediately deal with
AI declares war on us
Timing of something goes badly awry
Start of T243

Checklist every turn before hitting end turn
double check MM
check tech trades available
check if and what AI have researched from F4 screen
check for new/better resource trades
check espionage screen for large sabotage production values in all visible AI cities
check if any AI went into war prep mode
check for any barbarians
turn off spy specialists - Domestic Advisor and "City Details" is great for checking this quickly
save the game

While scouting
will put a note that notes the most recent location of barbarians
will put a note that notes the most recent location of all AI units


Power graph spiking in 3...2...1...
 
comments in blue
Tech Path
Aim to finish Nationalism in 6 turns by building a little bit of wealth, looking to pick up a tech-for-cash trade. If necessary start the Golden Age in 5 turns, but prefer not to. Then binary research to Banking before the end of the Golden Age, then 0% on Steel.

Civic changes
In the Golden Age, switch to Police+Nat+Slavery the turn we get Nationalism. On the last turn of the Golden Age (which will be in the next set) switch to Rep+Caste+Merc. Possibly switch to Theocracy in the first switch and back to Pacifism in the last, see below.

Religion Changes
If we're DOWing Ragnar, I can't see a reason to switch to Buddhism. If we pick up Theology soon somehow, switch to Christianity+Theocracy together with the other early switches during the Golden Age (gets more XP on more units than Taoism, and we won't be running any specialists during the Caste-free Golden Age), and back out to Paci+Tao in the final switches, to get our last GMerchant for a trade mission for our upgrades.

Tech Trading
Check every turn for new tech trading opportunities.
Check Research Screen each turn to see if AI Civs have completed any techs.
Do we want to trade Optics to Cathy for Theocracy if the opportunity presents itself?
Trade compass to Joao, Ragnar, or Izzy if they have a decent amount of :gold: for it that would be useful for finishing Nationalism.
Do not otherwise trade with Cathy or WvO.

Other Trade Opportunities and Diplomacy
Maintain current trades
Get Izzy's gold for our horse.
Reject "Stop Trade" demands
If we have an excess resource, unload it if we can get some cash
If we have an expired deal for (easiest to check on the F4-"Active" screen by mousing over deals) and they have more income, cancel and try to get more. AIs will normally trade all their excess income for a resource up to about 10 (or more)
Check if there are other deals that can be canceled/reevaluated.
Reject research demands - there are no small techs left (but will check with the team if at all possible before doing so)
Pick up a health trade if possible before DOWing Rag, because we will lose wheat. Watch to see if wheat will arrive in Hittite.
If WvO asks us to DOW on Ragnar early, do we?

Espionage
EP on Cathy 100%, won't need to divert some to maintain research view of WvO
Spy tours Cathy and returns to Amsterdam to prepare to fortify.

Great People
Due in 5, do Golden Age then (if needed to finish Nationalism that turn), or next turn.

City Builds For whips not sure if you want to maximize overflows on the whips or just time them for transport. With Police State I think we get 55 hammers per pop.
CC wealth until Nationalism then barracks, do not starve CC for earlier GAge
I think CC switches to merchants now. And keeps merchants in 1st turn of GA if no nationalism, then I assume no specialists during slavery time to keep merchant pool as clean as possible? maybe a spy? I think you are planning 7-8 turns of slavery/police state so CC could easily build a frigate or galleon instead of a barracks. I think this is preferred to a barracks.
FH Galleon then Frigate
SM wealth until Nationalism, then Treb, 2-whipped
PC Treb (switch citizen back to merchant), Treb 2-whipped
MC switch back to LB, Frigate (abandon mace for the moment, but don't start any new LBs before finishing the mace)
BF Treb, frigate 2-whipped
FC finish pikeman, galleon 2-whipped
GH Galleon to finish in 10 turns with GAge, working merchants and 0 citizens
SR turn off citizens go back to barracks, finish LB, then Treb (maybe 2-whipped)
London Barracks, then catapult for MP duty and/or siege if not needed for MP in another English city later in the game, needs 1 more Grass Farm at least 1 more grass farm, maybe an additional farm, it wouldn't be used long term but would maybe last 10 turns?
Nottingham Wealth for a few turns, then barracks to time its finish with nationalism, then Treb (instead of wealth and barracks possibly go straight to galleon)
abandon mace build
I think Nottingham goes straight for a galleon
York gives up mine and cows after workboat finishes, starts galleon (maybe 2-whipped)
Need to double check this, for some reason when i was looking York couldn't build a galleon, it was weird and I might have been delusional
Hastings insert LB, then back to poly-Treb, marshal on hill south of Canterbury
SL granary then Galleon (work iron next turn, chopping forest into granary), workboat coming form York for its fish. May 2-whip galleon.
I think you can work the iron this turn after workers finish it this turn
Canterbury Granary then lighthouse (I think this makes sense the seafood and the fresh water lake), may 1-whip lighthouse
Hittite keeps artist, works on lighthouse, may 2-whip a granary
BC mistake wealth, then switch to lighthouse to whip early in the slavery (whenever it makes sense at the time given the population and food box), then wealth. Abandon galleon cry

Drafting plan
We can draft three times each turn - we must do all 15 that will be available in my turn set.
Draft London every turn working max food after we switch to Nationalism. Hope some boats show up soon. Marshal on hill south of Canterbury. Send two muskets further south to bust fog and link up with galley incoming from PC to go to Hittite.
Otherwise, draft from all 7 of FH, SM, PC, MC, BF, FC, SR. Try to sync with available transport, remembering that the drafted unit is available to move immediately, unlike whipping.
Don't draft from CC or GH yet because we still want another GMerchant from each - is both realistic?
limiting slavery/police state to 5 turns would make this more realistic. I'll look at the numbers tomorrow ~10 hours from now
Do drafting before whipping if the whip would take us to 5 population and we're drafting this turn or soon.

That's 12 drafts. Draft 3 times from Nottingham/York/SL/CC/GH however seems best. Consider a second draft from somewhere that has a barracks and will not lose access to good food and hammers tiles through losing population and acquiring 3:mad: from the second draft.
I would rather keep CC off the drafting list if at all possible. Depending on the length of the game I can see CC getting 2 more great people if we don't draft it.

BCM, Canterbury and Hittite are still too small to draft.

Hastings is exempt from drafting because it needs to grow to 14 to get our HE going at full steam. Moai city MC is not exempt from drafting.

Workers
Strauss finish dye plantation near SR, then look for a ride to BCM's workshop or to Ragnar post-DOW
redemption for BCM please :)
Yeltsin Gfarm, Pworkshop (Hastings will max out at size 14 working all the grassland land tiles including just two Gfarms, and one Pworkshop, and will get there faster if we have an extra Gfarm for now and turn a Gfarm into a Gworkshop later)
Hoover chop for SL, then head to improve Canterbury (temporising with a turn on a workshop 2E of London)
Eiffel finish PC workshop, look for a ride east to England
Stevenson finish PC workshop, look for a ride west to Ragnar
Goethals, Locke, de Lesseps mine iron for SL, then improve Canterbury, starting with a turn each on the Gmine 2W1N of Canterbury, and looking to do Gworkshops after that.
Barlow road 2E of Hastings (for LB to defend Canterbury)
Brunel workshop 2E of Hastings
Fuller finish workshop 2N of Nottingham, chop tundra forest (we ain't coming back), finish workshop 1NW of Nottingham

War Plans
Units and transports per bc's screenshots posted above. Look to send a galley to the east of England with a worker from PC once the dust clears. Look to send a worker from PC west to Ragnar once the dust clears - but make sure they both leave PC once the army is taken care of. Frigate gathers intelligence near Nidaros for DOW around T238.

Maybe side-track the pike and a CR3 sword to take care of the dye city north of Nidaros if it's just defended by two horse archers still - it will make a convenient canal route west of SR. Depends how strong Nidaros is.

Will make final plans once we can see what's left in Nidaros, but I'm going to plan to land north of Nidaros and take it ASAP, rather than worry about pillaging the iron or pincer moves. We'll want to work the iron ourselves, of course, and since Ragnar has copper, denying him the right to build defensive swords doesn't seem worth our while :). He also won't be whipping anything too scary in Nidaros for our stack which will have longbows, a pike, trebs, and a bunch of heavy swords. Frigate helps bombard.
I think we want to land on a hill. Our units are not promoted very much and would be vulnerable to a cat or two and a stack attacking it on flat ground. That is why I was looking at the river hill that cuts the route to iron it doesn't pillage the iron. The hill to the south that avoids the river but requires we swing around to the south (still can land T238).

Reinforce with early muskets and use them to scout next city target.

Stopping/Pausing Conditions
A barbarian spawns in an awkward position that I can't immediately deal with
AI declares war on us
Timing of something goes badly awry
Start of T243

Checklist every turn before hitting end turn
double check MM
check tech trades available
check if and what AI have researched from F4 screen
check for new/better resource trades
check espionage screen for large sabotage production values in all visible AI cities
check if any AI went into war prep mode
check for any barbarians
turn off spy specialists - Domestic Advisor and "City Details" is great for checking this quickly
save the game

While scouting
will put a note that notes the most recent location of barbarians
will put a note that notes the most recent location of all AI units
 
I agree with the suggestions bc had to make and have edited the above PPP accordingly.

We also mooted a plan to poly-whip galleons out of Nottingham to sync with a fort build SE of Canterbury to dump 11 muskets and 1 treb 1W of Moscow ASAP. The Parthenon and GLH there are very useful for us. Assuming Moscow has about three longbows defending, and we find her land stack and it doesn't have 20 catapults, we should be in OK shape for taking Moscow and holding out for reinforcements across a galleon chain.

Capturing a Hindu AP would be a doubtful bonus until we get enough Hindu cities to get things voted our way. BCM is Hindu already, so we should take note of the turn when any AP is built or elections held. Ideally, we capture Moscow with the AP not yet finished. :)

I plan to play 39 hours from now, unless there's substantial new discussion.
 
CC running merchants from now on, builds wealth until Nationalism then a spy or two, do not starve CC for earlier GAge, plan not to draft CC ever, so no need for barracks

I was wrong here, since we need nationalism in 6 turns, I think we run scientists for those 6 turns. I think we need research more than wealth from CC for those 6 turns. If you can run merchants on the 6th turn especially and still research nationalism in 6 turns that would be great.

Hoover chop for SL, then head to improve Canterbury (temporising with a turn on a workshop 2E of London)
I think you mean temporizing with a with a turn on a farm 2E of London

Abandon galleon and put up sign to mock bc further
[pissed]

Barlow road 2E of Hastings (for LB to defend Canterbury)
Brunel workshop 2E of Hastings
after these two finish with this you may want a road to the spice (we traded away our other spice)

Police State might cause happiness issues since we would lose the 3 happiness in our largest cities...
Marbled clams will definitely need a MP (might want to take warrior from FH to MC in the early galley chaining this turn set in anticipation of this although FH is still unhappy about the whipping...)

editted (I think I was incorrectly giving 1450 as required gp for next great person and I also didn't factor in the probable capture of the Parthenon).
I've attached a gpp calculator we developed in OSS last game. Looks like the earliest we could get a great merchant out of Golden Hills would be T265... with parthenon capture T255 maybe? GH produces merchant T262. This just beats CC and might be worth it. This is with only 5 turns of slavery, running a spy during the slavery, and turning off the goldmine after the switch back to caste system. (and no drafting of GH) and a capture of Parthenon by T255 at least.

CC will produce a GM (hopefully can't turn off the GLib scientists) T252 and T265 if capture parthenon on T255.

Another reason not to hit willem is we can use his Temple of Artemis city for the GM mission...

We are getting close to being able to see into Cathy's cities. We may want to consider a spy specialist in CC during slavery and maybe elsewhere as well. I definitely think spy specialists are the way to go after the switch to Mercantilism. We will be able to see into Cathy's cities and will increase our odds of success on the city revolt. It would be nice to have a back up spy unit in Moscow if at all possible too.
 

Attachments

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Noted, thanks. Will update PPP later Also, will tour Hittite island with the archer, because we need to have seen Cathy's probable third city to get value from our upcoming city visibility.
 
Nobody has mentioned anything about Universal Suffrage at this stage.

At a rate of 3:gold:->1:hammers: for cash rushing I would think it is a pretty good choice. Any techs from here on out are pretty much just candy aren't they? I would propose we switch off research entirely and convert as much of our :commerce: into units. An effective mechanism to do this is through Universal Suffrage.

It has the added advantages that we can a) buy anything, including navy and siege, and b) buy units on the front lines as soon as cities come out of revolt.

Yes, it gives up Representation, but :)) bonus aside) that's really only great for teching forward. Also, 25% production from Police State is nice, but I don't think it quite compares to the cash rushing ability of US.

Just to reiterate: Forget about tech! Build Units! Finish the game!
 
civic changes and tech revisited... (based on aj's inspiration if it wasn't obvious)

We could get steel in about 12-16 turns after we finish Nationalism (or 15-20 turns with banking first) If we stayed with representation after (slavery-police state period)

alternative
start GA
switch Nationhood, Police State, Slavery, stay with Pacifism and basic economic civic and after 5 turns stay with Nationhood, Universal suffrage, caste system, pacifism (forget about banking in this case)
In the 12-16 turns it would take to research steel we would bank about 3000 gold and with hopefully Great Merchant from CC in about 16 turns too we could pick up another ~2000 gold.

That means instead of steel and cannons we basically can produce 1666 hammers worth of units or ~14 treb or ~12 frigates (or a combination of them) where we want them and need them. Also allows us to produce a pike where we need one if we needed it. (And we continue to produce ~200 gold per turn from commerce plus more gold from city captures would keep us producing an extra treb or frigate every other turn at least--not to mention all the pillaging our 2 movement musketeers could do... and maybe more gold from a few tech trades)

hmm... okay I think we can forget about steel... happiness might be an issue but for the most part could be solved with a MP here or there. And we should be able to capture a few happiness resources. Especially gems. Could buy a settler and settle on Gems and that would solve a lot of the happiness issues Universal suffrage introduces.

I'm also not convinced we should grow Hastings up to 14 either. We can sacrifice a little bit of its max potential for more units sooner.

could conceivably build a barracks in canterbury and buy units there taking advantage of that GG settled there. buying units in Hastings too. At least until we have cities closer to the front that we can buy units in.

Might want a barracks in Hittite with this in mind.

I think a dip into slavery and police state is in order in addition to universal suffrage as I outlined above. Universal suffrage long term is good, but nothing can beat police state and slavery to get lots of units fast.

Okay let's see how hard we can spike our power graph :)
 
civic changes and tech revisited...

We could get steel in about 12-16 turns after we finish Nationalism (or 15-20 turns with banking first) If we stayed with representation after (slavery-police state period)

alternative
start GA
switch Nationhood, Police State, Slavery, stay with Pacifism and basic economic civic and after 5 turns stay with Nationhood, Universal suffrage, caste system, pacifism (forget about banking in this case)
In the 12-16 turns it would take to research steel we would bank about 3000 gold and with hopefully Great Merchant from CC in about 16 turns too we could pick up another ~2000 gold.

That means instead of steel and cannons we basically can produce 1666 hammers worth of units or ~14 treb or ~12 frigates (or a combination of them) where we want them and need them. Also allows us to produce a pike where we need one if we needed it. (And we continue to produce ~200 gold per turn from commerce plus more gold from city captures would keep us producing an extra treb or frigate every other turn at least--not to mention all the pillaging our 2 movement musketeers could do... and maybe more gold from a few tech trades)

Our economy is really not that hot. Earning ~200:gold: every turn gives us a treb purchase every second turn, and in the location of our choice. Admittedly, that is slightly faster than Hastings will produce them.

Let's not forget that we already have 3 swords, 3 axes, 3 trireme and four galleys that want upgrades at 179, 155, 200 and 155 each. That's 2222:gold:. If we had Steel then some cats and trebs would put their hands up too. The above US plan isn't spending money we'd otherwise waste.

With the Merc+Rep plan, we'd spend the 3000-3500 getting Banking and Steel, and our GMerchant cash prioritised on upgrades to cannons and navy. Cannons cost only 25% more than trebs (150 vs 120), and are well more than 50% more survivable against longbows (strength 12 vs 4*2 against cities). We need many fewer of them, but they'll be slower to build and be useful. They defend muskets against knights, should any appear. Once we're fully upgraded, with our excess slider we can run culture for happiness and draft more muskets. Once frigates have bombed down flat-land cities, poly-musket is probably just playable. Several of them suicide, just like trebs. (I tried a dozen tests of six base muskets against 3 CG1 fortified longbows with 0% culture defence. We open at 25% and once I won all the first three rounds. Three times I failed. Note that this was a worst-case scenario for us.) Or we use the slider for espionage for spies and revolts.

I think maybe I've talked myself into the US plan. Dunno, got work to do.

hmm... okay I think we can forget about steel... happiness might be an issue but for the most part could be solved with a MP here or there. And we should be able to capture a few happiness resources. Especially gems. Could buy a settler and settle on Gems and that would solve a lot of the happiness issues Universal suffrage introduces.

I'm also not convinced we should grow Hastings up to 14 either. We can sacrifice a little bit of its max potential for more units sooner.

Sure.

could conceivably build a barracks in canterbury and buy units there taking advantage of that GG settled there. buying units in Hastings too. At least until we have cities closer to the front that we can buy units in.

Might want a barracks in Hittite with this in mind.

I think a dip into slavery and police state is in order in addition to universal suffrage as I outlined above. Universal suffrage long term is good, but nothing can beat police state and slavery to get lots of units fast.

Okay let's see how hard we can spike our power graph :)
 
the economy gets hotter with the GLH strike on Moscow. The GLH strike also makes mercantilism a little less attractive.
The pillage gold isn't insignificant and the capture gold isn't insignificant. Once the Army(ies) gets rolling Universal Suffrage makes makes it roll faster. Rep+Mercantilism isn't bad and the cannons clearly are superior. However they are come late, US helps us at the critical start time. An early 3 or 4 treb makes the difference between crushing an AI completely and just sniping I think. The musketeers pillage, pillage and we fuel even the upgrades you mentioned.
 
On the last turn of the Golden Age (which will be in the next set) switch to US+Nat+Caste

I really think we only need 5 turns of police state & slavery. The earlier switch back to caste system will increase odds on the Great Merchant in CC and get it significantly earlier.

Do we want to trade Optics to Cathy for Theocracy if the opportunity presents itself?

I think this is fine if it presents itself

Pick up a health trade if possible before DOWing Rag, because we will lose wheat. Watch to see if wheat will arrive in Hittite.

We are good for health in all but London when we lose the wheat, and by then I think we will be drafting away the unhealthiness.

Might want to run 2 artists in Hittite now, in anticipation of building up more culture for the time we can't run artists.

Hastings insert LB, then back to poly-Treb, marshal on hill south of Canterbury
Not sure what the right balance of growth and hammers here is...

Canterbury Granary then lighthouse (I think this makes sense the seafood and the fresh water lake), may 1-whip lighthouse
I would whip a barracks here too if possible. Perhaps 2 pop whip barracks with max OF into a Lighthouse. Helps out units that are bought with gold here.

Hittite keeps artist, works on lighthouse, may 2-whip a granary edit or barracks for cash buys
here too a 2 pop whip of barracks with OF into a lighthouse might make sense.

BC Mistake wealth, then switch to lighthouse to whip early in the slavery (whenever it makes sense at the time given the population and food box), then wealth. Abandon galleon and put up sign to mock bc further

We can buy this galleon with the switch to US. REDEMPTION!!! (now you know why I supported aj's suggestion to switch to Universal suffrage :) ) (ummm, of course we could buy the galleon anywhere bcool, shhhhh! let me have my moment)

Maybe side-track the pike and a CR3 sword to take care of the dye city north of Nidaros if it's just defended by two horse archers still - it will make a convenient canal route west of SR. Depends how strong Nidaros is.
This city is likely still 1 pop for quite some time, unless Ragnar devoted a ton of worker support here. I think it only has a 1 food tile to work until either a lighthouse is built or a jungle is chopped.

drafting... and GH
If we are going with Universal Suffrage and no Mercantilism then GH isn't going to produce a Great Merchant on a useful time line (I believe need to double check numbers) I think GH is draft bait again...

hmm if we stretch a little bit and capture the Parthenon ~T252 we can beat CC still to the 1350 great person on T264 I believe
stretching means turning off the Gold mine starting now for 6 turns (under pacifism), then running a spy during the slavery time (only 5 turns!), then running 5 merchants until we capture the Parthenon, then going up to 6 merchants after (turning off the gold mine), then running a small food deficit (without starvation I believe) for about 3 turn near the end.
possible alternative...Could keep the gold mine online I think throughout if you are willing to starve it at the end, yes with possibly 1 pop starvation near the end you can keep the gold mine online for at least the first 6 turns before the switch to slavery.
 

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