Interesting thread...I don't play multiplayer so my advice probably isn't worth much....but I agree the Mongols might be a good bet....the Keshiks come far enough along that you will know, at least to some degree, where to focus your efforts.......but get the Keshiks as quickly as you can and be absolutely ruthless and move as fast as you can....they are a "time-limited" thing. [Of course...you are now playing to his game....the Mongols will likely mean you will be "miles behind" in techs....]
The other would be Venice....have enough troops to defend your city and send out GMVs to takeover his little CS buddies......and even if he captures them...he can't turn them back into CSs again.....