Help me win deity, please!

If you're in caravan range, the AI scout would've seen your capital anyway, and you have nothing to lose by selling embassy. If they are far away, there is also no loss to selling embassy as their army takes ages to get to you and you have ample warning to prepare. Also often deity AI will forward settle you anyway if they're far away and there's simply no point not to sell embassy.

Yes, that is true but installing a trade route or multiple routes to a neighbor encourages them not to attack you as it gains gold for them as well. It doesn't always work out that way especially if they have more gain from other routes to other AIs. Like I said, environment is everything. There is no perfect strategy. What helps is other player perceptions and advice over bickering and argument. Take it as it lay my friends.
 
Trade routes with other AI civilizations need to be taken considered carefully because sudden AI Dow can plunder your income just so that the AI could make 100 gold per tr you send at it.
 
Also often deity AI will forward settle you anyway if they're far away and there's simply no point not to sell embassy.

I have been experimenting more with this. I really don't think selling embassy for 1 gpt is worth it. Yes, 7 gpt early game is pretty attractive, but really it is like 3-4 gpt and not so early -- since you have to meet every one. And it does seem to invite an early settler and/or early DoW -- maybe 1 in 10 times. It is hard to test or estimate, and is so subjective, but it really seems to play out that way to me.

So now what I do is:
  • Sell embassy for 35 gold if I have a DoF. The 35 gold at once can be really useful towards a Library or buying territory. After writing, I will buy an embassy with that AI for 1 gpt, so a small net profit and later gold is less valuable than early gold.
  • Otherwise wait until I get writing to exchange embassies. By then, I have pre-NC expo space under control, so the embassy is not inviting forward settling.
 
I always sell embassies and rarely have problems with AI aggression-the AI attacks you if you're weak, if youve got one Archer and your warrior then that's your problem, not the embassy. It's important to get your exoands out early, but you can't do it with your pants down.

Flexibility's the key on Deity I reckon. In the game I'm playing at the moment ramkang settled 4 tiles away from my capital so instead of building settlers I got chariots, CBs and spears, took the expand and his capital then bought a settler and walked him miles to expand while I built NC. Then I annexed so I had 4 cities and NC by around t80.
 
Okay, not selling embassies may be paranoia on my part. And in my most recent game, that habit made no difference. I experienced an AI aggressively trying to move an escorted settler past me. Fortunately, starting warrior and two scouts took care of them, and I got a couple workers from the deal, so great!

But what I cannot figure out is how the AI, who started way south of me, decided that north of me was his ideal expo location. It was a decent enough spot, and I put my 2nd expo there, but I was watching the area. I got a ruin in the vicinity and 30 gold from the nearby CS -- so I know my scout got there early. I never saw an AI scout -- just the settler/warrior pairs. So how does the AI know to beeline across the continent?
 
no idea, I've wondered the same things sometimes, but I doubt they can expand where they haven't seen so you must have missed a scout or something that checked out the area earlier.

My hypothesis seeing how the AI expand is some are programmed to pick the best close spots--the ones that expand as a growing cluster of cities pattern. (Hiawatha, Shosone...) and some are programmed to forward settle and run straight for the best spots near you or others (cough, France, cough). Others seem to want the best spot on the map and will march their settler 40 squares sometimes to get it. I haven't decided which ones fall into these categories but this matches the behavior I've seen in them. Still others will expand to about 3-4 cities, stop, build a massive army, and pick someone to DOW for their next cities. (Japan, Zulu, Greece...) I like the variety, it keeps me on my toes. I swear more than once though that France has taken his third settler and immediately forward-settled me after an embassy. That guy is annoying. This happens on games when there are clearly better closer spots. I think it is a move precluding war and they want an outpost near you. I decide this after observing the inevitable DOW in the medieval that follows this move. Peaceful civs usually expand more smoothly near themselves.
 
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