Would Germany have won WW1?

If operation Michael suceeded and the Germans invaded Paris, would the central powers have won WW1?

If Germans had taken Paris with no doubt the war would have ended. France is a very centralized country. Everything is in Paris. Once Paris falls, France falls.

In my humble opinion Germans wanted to gain control on French colonies in order to become the dominating power in Europe. Germany was already the most populated country with the largest territory then. The only thing they didn't have were colonies in order to have a real control on main international trade routes. With the French Empire, Germany would have been in good position to overtake Britain as the world leading power.

What would have happen next ? Tough to say. People were truely nationalistic then in Europe. After 1870's humiliation, it would have been a lot to bear for France. Would they have grown fascist ? Maybe. However, as France had only 40 million people when Germans were 65 million, and as France had a less efficient economy than the German one, I'm not sure France would have been able to grow a Hitler invading Europe. France wasn't enough powerful to launch such a thing.

Anyway, Brits should be glad France has resisted almost alone to the German invasion in the summer 1914. I know that when we've grown in an English speaking country, it's always easier to blame French people than to be grateful towards them... but Europe would be much more different if French soldiers didn't valliantly stop the German advance in September and October 1914.

Respect to the souls of those fallen during world war 1. One of my great grand father died then. His son, my grand father, wasn't even born when he died. My three other great grand fathers have been wounded during the war. What a tragedy had been those times.

Didn't the French gov't plan on relocating to Bourdeaux? (excuse my horrible spelling)

Even if the French governmet fled to Bordeaux, the fall of Paris would have lead only to period of chaos in the French governmet leading to a very fast peace. As Marla said if you take Paris France is yours. That was the case in 1871 as well as in 1940. In 1871 France resisted until Paris surrendered. That would not be another case in 1918.

Adler

Marla_Singer said:

Anyway, Brits should be glad France has resisted almost alone to the German invasion in the summer 1914. I know that when we've grown in an English speaking country, it's always easier to blame French people than to be grateful towards them... but Europe would be much more different if French soldiers didn't valliantly stop the German advance in September and October 1914.

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A good post Marla, but I just like to point out that France also owes to the Russian Empire which was able to mobilize quickly and draw a lot of the German forces away from Paris. With the Cold War attitudes it is often neglected and forgotten ...

One of the German attacking spear head's was weakend to send troops to fight the Russians at Tanneberg, it was that very same part of the spear head that the British expeditionary forces and the French halted near Marne in 1914. So if that part would have not been weakend then maybe the Germans might have made it through maybe not.

If they did it in 1914, possibly the French govt. would have moved south.

If they did it in 1918 (much as it pains me ), the French would most likely have had it with the war and accepted whatever peace they could get.

There was also a large mutiny in the French army around 1917, if only the German intelligence would have found out.

The US troops would have arrived in France and retaken Paris with relatively little trouble. With such huge numbers of allied troops on French soil it's hard to imagine them makung peace.

Oh yes the great and brave U.S. Soldiers would've come to save the day... as usual.
This isn't a cheap Hollywood movie! Even Canada had a greater impact on the war than the U.S.!
The only Nation which would've been able to retake Paris were the British with their tanks.
(and I doubt that that would have happend...)

~Corsair#01~ said:

The US troops would have arrived in France and retaken Paris with relatively little trouble. With such huge numbers of allied troops on French soil it's hard to imagine them makung peace.

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No Corsair. And for a reason which is obvious.

In 1914, Germans launched an invasion on France which wasn't meant to last. They didn't want to occupy France, simply to get what they wanted from France.

In 1911, Germany has threatened to invade France if they didn't give them Morocco. The crisis had been solved once France has accepted to let Cameroon to the Germans. Without doing anything... with a policy simply based on pressures... Germany succeeded to get Cameroon for free. The reasoning was then simple. If France is so weak that it is ready to give a part of its Empire in order to escape from an invasion, then what would France give once invaded ?? Everything. And that's why Germans launched their invasion.

As such, once Paris taken, the French Empire would have become German, but once this done, the German soldiers would have come back to Germany, and no occupation would have lasted. Americans wouldn't have liberated anything for the pure and simple reason that there would have been nothing to liberate.

Marla's right. Unlike WW2, WW1 was just that Germany didn't want to occupy France, just force what they wanted.

Reno's right, Russia's extremely quick mobilization (a surprise to Europe) skrewed Germany. If the First Battle of the Marne was a German victory, then Paris would have most likely fallen.

~Corsair#01~ said:

The US troops would have arrived in France and retaken Paris with relatively little trouble. With such huge numbers of allied troops on French soil it's hard to imagine them makung peace.

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Having a few million men on the front lines didn't make them want peace. You don't realize that this is WW1, most of which was a stalemate, and fought over a relatively thin stretch of territory. You couldn't blitz during this era, just dig in and fight it out. American troops would have fallen to the same fate as every other soldier in the trenches.

Marla, the 2nd Marocco crise of 1911 started because France wanted to occupy Marocco. Germany had there economical treaties with the Maroccan government as well as they thought to make it a German colony. That´s why the gunboat SMS Panther was sent to Agadir to underline the German position (so called Panthersprung nach Agadir). Gunboat diplomacy. The crise was solved by the French by accepting the old German treaties and posessions in Marocco (I mean here private possessions) and the transfer of a relative small area of the French colony Congo to the German colony Cameroon, which indeed existed since 1886.
Also Germany was cought in the alliance with Austria. A plan for a peace didn´t exist in 1914. Only plans of a quality made in a pub. So no real serious ones. If the Germans would have taken Paris, France would have fallen and perhaps lost one or two colonies. Britain and Germany would have made a peace in which the status quo ante (more or less) was testified. Perhaps together with a German- British fleet treaty. And the US would have played almost no role. The German government did not expect a harsh treaty in Versailles as so they would not be so harsh in 1918 to the French.

Adler

Civ3Newbie said:

If operation Michael suceeded and the Germans invaded Paris, would the central powers have won WW1?

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Probably not. Given the enthusiasm of the French public and the growing Allied strength as the American build-up gathered pace, it's safe to say that the French would have kept fighting after the loss of Paris in 1918. Given the severe logistical limitations the Germans were facing before they captured Paris, I don't see how they could have possibly brought the war to a favorable conclusion in 1918 if the French declined to surrender.

Incidently, it's not really correct to say that the French gave up in 1870 due to Paris being captured. The French maintained the fight during the long siege of Paris, in which they were completly cut off from the capital's manpower and industry. By the time the city surrendered both nations were effectively fought out and very keen to make peace.

Adler17 said:

The German government did not expect a harsh treaty in Versailles as so they would not be so harsh in 1918 to the French.

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What's your source for that claim? AFAIK, in the last offical war aims the German government published they demanded large areas of French territory be permanently transfered to Germany as a pre-condition for peace. The ridiculous terms the Germans demanded from the Russians in the treaty of Brest-Litovsk strongly indicate that they would have treated the French very harshly if they had been victorious in 1918.

Case said:

Incidently, it's not really correct to say that the French gave up in 1870 due to Paris being captured. The French maintained the fight during the long siege of Paris, in which they were completly cut off from the capital's manpower and industry. By the time the city surrendered both nations were effectively fought out and very keen to make peace.

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Helmut von Moltke made the comment that more French troops were in arms aginst them when they left in 1871 than when they entered in 1870.

Adler17 said:

The German government did not expect a harsh treaty in Versailles as so they would not be so harsh in 1918 to the French.

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In which parallel dimension do you live in Adler ?

The reparations Germany had to pay at Versailles after 1918 were established on the reparations France had to pay after 1871 and the Treaty of Frankfurt !

How can you say Germany wouldn't have made a Frankfurt again ?


The big difference between Frankfurt and Versailles isn't the size of the reparations, but simply the economic situations : After Frankfurt, prosperity thanks to the 2nd industrial revolution ; After Versailles, economic crisis worsen because of the 1929 crisis.

Of course France would have paid reparations again ! Why wouldn't they have ?

Actually the way France rebounded econimically and industrailly after 1871 surprised the Germans. The reperations for the war was paid without much effort by France, which was NOT how things had been figured when the terms were set. They were designed to cripple France, just like Versailles was designed to cripple Germany in 1919.

France had to pay 1 billion dollars (!!!) to Germany after the franco-prussian war

But concerning the peace of Tilsit or the peace of Versailles Frankfurt was much more moderate. Sure the French had to pay and they would have paid also in 1918 when the Germans would have won. But Bismarck wanted indeed that France is crippled for some time, but not so long that they would never forget the war. Bismarck wanted a permanent peace with France. But that seemed to be impossible. If France had accepted a united Germany after Sedan the German peace terms would have been much less harsh. Also the Prussians remembered well Tilsit, in which only the Russian Czar saved Prussia´s existance. So in contrast to Tilsit and Versailles the peace of Frankfurt was mild.
Also the peace of Brest- Litowsk is mentioned here. Well, it was a harsh peace indeed. But against whom it was? It was against the Bolsheviks. They should have kept small. That was the reason for that harsh treaty. Also the Russian Czars conquered other nations which now had the chance to become independent. Estonia, Lithunia, Finnland, Lettland and for a short time the Ukraine were independent from Russia! So all in all Brest- Litowsk is bad to compare with Versailles.
Also some German generals wanted to annex vast areas in these territories indeed but they were stopped by the Reichstag and the German government. So it is indeed only mere speculation to say the Germans would have made a Versailles treaty to the French. Indeed there are more hints that France would have got a much milder peace. Also we should not forget the French run amok in the Versailles treaty not to be stopped by the British. I strongly doubt the Germans would have done this.

Adler