Merlot Mafia: Last Queen of the Amazons
- Thread starter Winston Hughes
- Start date
Hercules90
Deity
- Joined
- Jul 16, 2007
- Messages
- 2,557
I vote Caledorn because she has been very quiet to date, maybe hoping to not draw attention to herself.
However if she can prove her innocence - I don't know how, I could be persuaded to change my vote.
However if she can prove her innocence - I don't know how, I could be persuaded to change my vote.
Sorry for double-posting, but I forgot to address this in the previous post and do not want to make edits in a thread like this. Also, as a matter of style, since we all claim to be townies, I will not post in neutral PoV and use "us" to refer to townies and "them" to refer to them. If you are one of them, just flip the references in your mind.
I have ideas, but I am not sure if it is a good idea to post them yet, as they could be pre-empted! Since the dead are allowed to send messages from the grave, I will get to post them regardless of my status should one or more of them be careless enough to get caught by any of these ideas.
The easier reference was a sarcastic observation towards the people who'd rather wait for their execution. (Unless you are referring to someone else saying it would get easier.) Lets walk through some math, assuming lack of intelligence in our votes and acting purely random.
(Actually, after writing to stuff below, it seems there are some cases where passing does improve our odds! If someone could do the math for different amount of mafia members, I'd be interested. Is either of the royal mathematicians taking part in the game?)
Assume the game is lost when mafia has 50% population at any point as the mafia is able to block daytime lynches and has a free kill at night. Now, while 4 is way too high number of mafia members (very unlikely win), let us use that for the first example since the math is easy.
4 original mafiasas: The mafia could gain controlling power in just one day+night cycle with 60% probability. (6/10 chance of lynch missing mafia + nightime murder -> 4vs4 = loss.) And the 40% chance for us is only the chance to survive even the first day, not the whole game. The odds for later days are 37.5%, 33% and 25%. (3/8, 2/6 and 1/4) What is noteworthy here is that the odds are not improving as time passes, even with active townies!
4 original mafiasas + town abstains the first day: Well, obviously after the first night passes, we are down to 5v4 from 6v4, which changes the odds of first day to 44.4% (up from 40%!). Later days are 3/7, 2/5 and 1/3. In percentages those are 42.9%, 40% and 33%, all improvements over the 6v4 results.
Of course the votes are more (mis)informed on later days, but even so the initial 40% chance is too low, so we are looking at a smaller mafia .. I hope!
So. At least with 4 mafia members passing is a good idea and in that case I think we should retract our votes. But since we do not know the size of mafia, more math needs to be done, so we know if the situation is same for mafias of 3, 2 and 1. Since some outcomes of smaller mafia cases join the "path" taken by 4 member mafias (for example 7v3->5v3->4v2 and 6v4->5v3->4v2), intuition tells me that might be the case.
I have ideas, but I am not sure if it is a good idea to post them yet, as they could be pre-empted! Since the dead are allowed to send messages from the grave, I will get to post them regardless of my status should one or more of them be careless enough to get caught by any of these ideas.
The easier reference was a sarcastic observation towards the people who'd rather wait for their execution. (Unless you are referring to someone else saying it would get easier.) Lets walk through some math, assuming lack of intelligence in our votes and acting purely random.
(Actually, after writing to stuff below, it seems there are some cases where passing does improve our odds! If someone could do the math for different amount of mafia members, I'd be interested. Is either of the royal mathematicians taking part in the game?)
Assume the game is lost when mafia has 50% population at any point as the mafia is able to block daytime lynches and has a free kill at night. Now, while 4 is way too high number of mafia members (very unlikely win), let us use that for the first example since the math is easy.
4 original mafiasas: The mafia could gain controlling power in just one day+night cycle with 60% probability. (6/10 chance of lynch missing mafia + nightime murder -> 4vs4 = loss.) And the 40% chance for us is only the chance to survive even the first day, not the whole game. The odds for later days are 37.5%, 33% and 25%. (3/8, 2/6 and 1/4) What is noteworthy here is that the odds are not improving as time passes, even with active townies!
4 original mafiasas + town abstains the first day: Well, obviously after the first night passes, we are down to 5v4 from 6v4, which changes the odds of first day to 44.4% (up from 40%!). Later days are 3/7, 2/5 and 1/3. In percentages those are 42.9%, 40% and 33%, all improvements over the 6v4 results.
Of course the votes are more (mis)informed on later days, but even so the initial 40% chance is too low, so we are looking at a smaller mafia .. I hope!
So. At least with 4 mafia members passing is a good idea and in that case I think we should retract our votes. But since we do not know the size of mafia, more math needs to be done, so we know if the situation is same for mafias of 3, 2 and 1. Since some outcomes of smaller mafia cases join the "path" taken by 4 member mafias (for example 7v3->5v3->4v2 and 6v4->5v3->4v2), intuition tells me that might be the case.
I guess someone didn't read the story very closely...
I thought I did, but .. uh. Oh well.
Edit: I have privately confessed to Sir Winston my trouble with the setting. It is so disgusting to act in this fashion. As noblemen, we know our leader is appointed by the God and the other survivors better swear loyalty to the new queen, murder on her hands or not! It was simply the way fate decided to play out her ascension! But for the sake of showing no good thing can come out if it, I will play along and silently thank my fate for living in a proper monarchy here in Merlot.
Attached openoffice calc/excel sheet clearly demonstrates we want to begin day phase with odd number of people, even if it means we let the mafia kill one of us freely. Strange as it may sound, we must pass the first day. (And the optimal play for mafia calls for passing the nights until we make the first move.) Also, unless the game is very biased, we have only one mafiosa. (The odds of us winning vs 1/2/3/4 mafia are 51%/22%/7%/1% without passing and 59%/30%/11%/3% with passing on first day.)
Therefore I shall withdraw my earlier vote:
Unvote: landlubber
(Also I recommend everyone else abstain the first day. I will treat anyone voting as mafia member.)
mgsmuhammad
Resident Stalker
Hm.. I'm no mathematician, but i'll take your word for it.
I'll abstain today too.
I'll abstain today too.
Midday 1 - An Uncertain Future
As the Princesses struggled to come to terms with the loss of their Queen, they also struggled to get a grip on the new method of decision-making they had adopted.
For a while, it looked as if nobody wanted to cast the first vote. Even after Princess Tic0 had showed her mettle by stepping forward with an accusation, the floodgates did not yet open. And by the time the group sat down for lunch, Tic0 herself had retreated from her earlier boldness, leaving Princess landlubber and Princess Caledorn with one vote each.
Nevertheless, with plenty of time left before nightfall, hope still remained that they could catch the killer before she struck again...
Tally
landlubber - 1 (ash88)
Caledorn - 1 (Hercules90)
Night will fall in roughly 23 hours.
Úmarth
Megalomaniac
I don't like the sound of a stalemate... and your poindexterity is most un-Amazon like. We are a warrior race! So
vote: Tic0
Caledorn
Emperor
Preposterous! Accusing me of such a deed just because I've been quiet? *glares at Princess Hercules90*
(Vote : Abstain)
(Vote : Abstain)
Hercules90
Deity
- Joined
- Jul 16, 2007
- Messages
- 2,557
Well now that you are not so quiet, I will revisit my opinion.
Why are you abstaining?
Tboy
Future world ruler
Such intimidation, Princess Tic0! Hardly befitting as fine an Amazonian Warrior as your good self. Your vasillation via this attempted forced abstention is also unbecoming of your station - such indecision is the very sort of thing that occurs in those foolish 'democratic' nations that we so abhor. God forbid we should fall under such a government! These suspicious actions hint at far worse insubordination. I must therefore declare:
vote: Tic0
vote: Tic0
landlubber
Scottish Nationalist
- Joined
- Mar 5, 2010
- Messages
- 1,534
I'll abstainthis time around. I don't think Tic0 is mafia, nad let's not risk lynching an innocent.
It seems we will find out in less than a day if that is the case. According to the rules, roles are revealed upon death. To be honest, I like it better that way, since then I can theorycraft without anyone being suspicious of where my loyalties lie.
Caledorn
Emperor
I am abstaining on the grounds of there being far too much uncertainty as of now to actually make anything except a qualified guess at best - which could lead to an innocent being killed. And I am not about to lynch someone innocent!
The idle threats made by Tic0 has nothing to do with my abstaining, just for the record - especially seeing as the threats may just as well be an attempt at diverting our attention...
ash88
Hail to the King Baby -DN
Oh I see - we get to see a tally... and the mafia votes don't count? And we know who voted for everyone?
Didn't Tic0 vote for landlubber as well? Why wasn't his vote counted? (Maybe he changed it and I just didn't see) --- otherwise it would indicate that Tic0 is mafia?
Am I getting this? Because now it seems too easy.
Didn't Tic0 vote for landlubber as well? Why wasn't his vote counted? (Maybe he changed it and I just didn't see) --- otherwise it would indicate that Tic0 is mafia?
Am I getting this? Because now it seems too easy.
mgsmuhammad
Resident Stalker
No, Mafia votes do count, I believe.
It's just Tic0 unvoted landlubber further up this page.
It's just Tic0 unvoted landlubber further up this page.
Although finding out what would happen in case of a tie is tempting, I think I can not risk having 2 townies dying.
Besides, I will be a martyr for upholding our traditions and after we eradicate both this nasty "voting" business and the murdering scum, our loyal people will compose tributes to my sacrifice.
Besides, I will be a martyr for upholding our traditions and after we eradicate both this nasty "voting" business and the murdering scum, our loyal people will compose tributes to my sacrifice.
Evening 1 - A Noble Sacrifice?
Being the first to step forward and cast a vote, Princess Tic0 knew she had taken a risk, and her retraction of that vote a short while later was typical of the unease with which the Amazons took to their task. Though determined to catch the Queen's killer, they were still struggling to adjust to their new-fangled voting system, and, at the end of the day, only four of the ten Princesses had made a valid accusation...
Princess ash88 and Princess Hercules90, unaffected by later discussions, stuck to their guns and refused to shift from their original suspects, Princesses landlubber and Caledorn respectively. However, in the final reckoning, it was the afternoon voters who swung the decision. While a majority of their compatriots stood meekly aside, Princess Umarth and Princess Tboy turned their sights on none other than Tic0, citing her indecision, her intimidatory manner, and her curious obsession with numbers.
Nevertheless, facing only two accusations, Princess Tic0 still had a chance of saving herself. Had she cast her own vote against either landlubber or Caledorn, it would have been a tie. The Amazons, being inexperienced in such things, had failed to take that contingency into account when designing the voting system. And so, fearing the conseqences of an uncertain decision, Princess Tic0 chose to sacrifice herself, rather than risk further chaos amongst the sisterhood.
Stepping out into the evening sunshine, Tic0 knelt down on the grass of the palace garden, facing out towards the lands of her Clan with her head bowed. As her first accuser, it fell upon Princess Umarth to complete the deed. Without a word, she stepped up behind Tic0, lifted her hefty War Club, and brought it crashing down upon the head of the kneeling Amazon.
A single blow was all it took. In silence, the women buried the body where it fell, before returning to the Palace for a late supper and an uneasy night's sleep. Having allowed herself to be killed when she might have been saved, it seemed obvious to everyone that...
Spoiler :
Tally
Tic0 - 2 (Umarth, Tboy)
landlubber - 1 (ash88)
Caledorn - 1 (Hercules90)
Living Players
mgsmuhammed
Caledorn
Hercules90
slaze
Umarth
ash88
Tegvtec
landlubber
Tboy
Deceased
Tic0 - Innocent
It it now night. You may continue to post, but voting must cease until morning.
Mafia, please send your orders.
Morning in roughly 24 hours.
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