How to predict the AP builder?

In my last three games now I've tried to predict which AI was going to build the AP, preempted spreading that religion and getting the religious buildings up, only to have the AP built in a different religion.

For example, in my current Immortal game Izzy founded Buddhism, tech'd to Theology first and everybody was in Buddhism (myself included) other than Pericles (Hinduism). I'd pretty much finished building Buddhist temples and monasteries everywhere and then Pericles goes and builds the AP

Given that Izzy was the pack leader, is a religious fruitcake and got to Theology way before Pericles, why didn't she build the AP? Was it the difference in the 'Builds Wonders' probability that made the difference? (Pericles: 8/10, Izzy: 4/10).

I'd really appreciate any tips on AP builder prediction!

If you don't have theology, you can hover over it in their trade window. If they say "We have our reasons" for why they won't trade it, they're building the AP.

edit: now that i think about it, they could also be building the sisteen chapel. So my tip is not fool proof.

Personally, I always turn diplo victory off. The AP is such a cheesy building...

Cheers for the tip, I'll check that next time

The AP does drive me crazy at times, about the only thing I like about it is the extra hammers that the temples and monasteries bring.

nate45 said:

edit: now that i think about it, they could also be building the sisteen chapel. So my tip is not fool proof.

Click to expand...

...and if more than one has Theology and reports "We have our reasons"...

I think I'm going to see this game out and then try one with diplo off, I never try for diplo myself anyway.