Tani Coyote
Son of Huehuecoyotl
- Joined
- May 28, 2007
- Messages
- 15,191
This is likely an oversimplification, but from what I know, China is a rapidly-developing economy rooted in it's powerful export industry, and held together by an authoritarian-enough(enough, not Nazi-style brutality) government. Now, China also possesses 1,500 million variables(from what I remember) in the form of it's population. It also possesses nuclear weaponry(I'm not sure of the specs on these though) and is a rising military power, modernising it's military as it's economy surges. China has some notable independence movements, in Tibet and Xinjiang(I think it was?).
From what I've heard some mention, China's managed to keep itself together by promising constant economic development and using a firm authoritarian hand to control those who slip through the cracks. Not to mention the thousands of years of common history between most of the components.
Now, the hypothetical begins. What if that economic growth stopped for one reason or another(think catastrophic, a la the West gave them the finger and stopped buying)? What if the fall of economic growth caused plummeting revenues and massive deficits? What if, in turn, the government became increasingly corrupt and inefficient, until eventually, China shattered, as it has done in the past? With 1.5 billion individuals running amock with no central control, what would result?
What would a world without a unified China(not including Taiwan) be like?
Overall, I conclude that while there is often a strong rivalry between the West and China, we are still just that: rivals, not enemies. I think that, given the massive economic and political destruction that would ensue if China collapsed(it would certainly be as massive as the USSR's fall, I'm sure), it is foolish to wish for its collapse. Even without Chinese goods, China's sheer manpower and nuclear arsenal are enough of a reason to protect it from anything that could destroy it.
But... alas, that is what I assume might occur. What about all of you?
From what I've heard some mention, China's managed to keep itself together by promising constant economic development and using a firm authoritarian hand to control those who slip through the cracks. Not to mention the thousands of years of common history between most of the components.
Now, the hypothetical begins. What if that economic growth stopped for one reason or another(think catastrophic, a la the West gave them the finger and stopped buying)? What if the fall of economic growth caused plummeting revenues and massive deficits? What if, in turn, the government became increasingly corrupt and inefficient, until eventually, China shattered, as it has done in the past? With 1.5 billion individuals running amock with no central control, what would result?
What would a world without a unified China(not including Taiwan) be like?
Spoiler :
My greatest fear would be for it's nuclear stockpiles. Being on the border of several Islamic nations and the developing world in general, a breakdown of order in China would possibly allow some of these weapons to slip through it's clutches into the hands of extremists the world over, especially once corruption has become high enough that greedy local politicians will happily hand them over to the highest bidder.
The West would, economically speaking, not be affected(at first) I imagine, provided it had found another supplier of cheap goods to support it's luxury lifestyle. But what about the waves of immigrants who would surely swarm the gates of every nation they can reach, before and after the collapse of the PRC government? I am confident that, provided there was enough methods of trans-oceanic transportation, Americans would no longer complain about the southern border. But in the case of no transportation, things would be even worse: an entire half of the world would be cut off, increasing the strain on states in China's proximity.
With the lack of a central authority, I imagine China would descend into multiple competing factions, as any state in anarchy does. Tibet would, I imagine, break off into a de facto entity, but I'm not sure where the other borders would be drawn, given the ethnic harmony of China. I was once told that if China fell apart, it's divisions would be based on it's current provincial borders(which makes sense given it's history of legal authority; it would merely be reduced to the next level), more than any language or ethnicity.
North Korea, I think, would become even more of a hellhole, losing it's big brother in the madness. Any state with significant economic connections to China would naturally suffer with it(of course, my theories assume the West cut off most economic activities, thus shielding them from harm... but what about all the other developing countries China holds hands with?).
The West would, economically speaking, not be affected(at first) I imagine, provided it had found another supplier of cheap goods to support it's luxury lifestyle. But what about the waves of immigrants who would surely swarm the gates of every nation they can reach, before and after the collapse of the PRC government? I am confident that, provided there was enough methods of trans-oceanic transportation, Americans would no longer complain about the southern border. But in the case of no transportation, things would be even worse: an entire half of the world would be cut off, increasing the strain on states in China's proximity.
With the lack of a central authority, I imagine China would descend into multiple competing factions, as any state in anarchy does. Tibet would, I imagine, break off into a de facto entity, but I'm not sure where the other borders would be drawn, given the ethnic harmony of China. I was once told that if China fell apart, it's divisions would be based on it's current provincial borders(which makes sense given it's history of legal authority; it would merely be reduced to the next level), more than any language or ethnicity.
North Korea, I think, would become even more of a hellhole, losing it's big brother in the madness. Any state with significant economic connections to China would naturally suffer with it(of course, my theories assume the West cut off most economic activities, thus shielding them from harm... but what about all the other developing countries China holds hands with?).
Overall, I conclude that while there is often a strong rivalry between the West and China, we are still just that: rivals, not enemies. I think that, given the massive economic and political destruction that would ensue if China collapsed(it would certainly be as massive as the USSR's fall, I'm sure), it is foolish to wish for its collapse. Even without Chinese goods, China's sheer manpower and nuclear arsenal are enough of a reason to protect it from anything that could destroy it.
But... alas, that is what I assume might occur. What about all of you?