Hypothetical: Dissolution of China

Tani Coyote

Son of Huehuecoyotl
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This is likely an oversimplification, but from what I know, China is a rapidly-developing economy rooted in it's powerful export industry, and held together by an authoritarian-enough(enough, not Nazi-style brutality) government. Now, China also possesses 1,500 million variables(from what I remember) in the form of it's population. It also possesses nuclear weaponry(I'm not sure of the specs on these though) and is a rising military power, modernising it's military as it's economy surges. China has some notable independence movements, in Tibet and Xinjiang(I think it was?).

From what I've heard some mention, China's managed to keep itself together by promising constant economic development and using a firm authoritarian hand to control those who slip through the cracks. Not to mention the thousands of years of common history between most of the components.

Now, the hypothetical begins. What if that economic growth stopped for one reason or another(think catastrophic, a la the West gave them the finger and stopped buying)? What if the fall of economic growth caused plummeting revenues and massive deficits? What if, in turn, the government became increasingly corrupt and inefficient, until eventually, China shattered, as it has done in the past? With 1.5 billion individuals running amock with no central control, what would result?



What would a world without a unified China(not including Taiwan) be like?

Spoiler :
My greatest fear would be for it's nuclear stockpiles. Being on the border of several Islamic nations and the developing world in general, a breakdown of order in China would possibly allow some of these weapons to slip through it's clutches into the hands of extremists the world over, especially once corruption has become high enough that greedy local politicians will happily hand them over to the highest bidder.

The West would, economically speaking, not be affected(at first) I imagine, provided it had found another supplier of cheap goods to support it's luxury lifestyle. But what about the waves of immigrants who would surely swarm the gates of every nation they can reach, before and after the collapse of the PRC government? I am confident that, provided there was enough methods of trans-oceanic transportation, Americans would no longer complain about the southern border. But in the case of no transportation, things would be even worse: an entire half of the world would be cut off, increasing the strain on states in China's proximity.

With the lack of a central authority, I imagine China would descend into multiple competing factions, as any state in anarchy does. Tibet would, I imagine, break off into a de facto entity, but I'm not sure where the other borders would be drawn, given the ethnic harmony of China. I was once told that if China fell apart, it's divisions would be based on it's current provincial borders(which makes sense given it's history of legal authority; it would merely be reduced to the next level), more than any language or ethnicity.

North Korea, I think, would become even more of a hellhole, losing it's big brother in the madness. Any state with significant economic connections to China would naturally suffer with it(of course, my theories assume the West cut off most economic activities, thus shielding them from harm... but what about all the other developing countries China holds hands with?).


Overall, I conclude that while there is often a strong rivalry between the West and China, we are still just that: rivals, not enemies. I think that, given the massive economic and political destruction that would ensue if China collapsed(it would certainly be as massive as the USSR's fall, I'm sure), it is foolish to wish for its collapse. Even without Chinese goods, China's sheer manpower and nuclear arsenal are enough of a reason to protect it from anything that could destroy it.

But... alas, that is what I assume might occur. What about all of you?
 
China, just like the Soviet Union/Russia did, have, in general, strong national institutions. Especially concerning its military and even more so its nuclear forces.

There is minimal reason to fear that their nuclear weapons will fall into the wrong hands whatever actually happens. Russia did fine in that regard as well.

If you want to be concerned about a failed state with nuclear weapons, look no further than Pakistan. But even there, their nuclear capabilities are among the best controlled assets they have.

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If China's economy fails to deliver, we will probably see that the Party must take more authoritarian measures in use to maintain control over the country, and/or they must enable more democratic reforms. If the economy gradually gets weaker, democratic reforms may help to offset any sectarianism or collapse. If the change is sudden, the authoritarian option is IMO most likely to be used, and the democratic reforms will be much more delayed than what they currently are.

The nightmare of the Chinese leadership however, is a democratisation process akin to what happened in Russia. They will rather have a new Cultural Revolution than allowing that to happen in China!
 
Not going to happen in the future PEAK OIL!!! yeah um the party is going to retain control no matter what for at least the next 50 years, the populace are still apathetic to democracy
 
taillesskangaru made a nice map of balkanized China, too bad I didn't save it...

What would happen? Well, that what always happens when China becomes disunited: a long and bloody civil war which ends with China unified under a new dynasty. And the cycle begins anew :)
 
taillesskangaru made a nice map of balkanized China, too bad I didn't save it...

What would happen? Well, that what always happens when China becomes disunited: a long and bloody civil war which ends with China unified under a new dynasty. And the cycle begins anew :)

Except that...

In the past, Chinese Civil Wars usually saw little foreign interference and cause little impact beyond China's borders. China was historically isolated from the rest of the world by the sea in the east, jungles in the south and mountains and the west. The only foreign interference came from the north, from the nomadic tribes, who once they conqured a bit of China sooner or later emulated Chinese styles and set themselves up as legitimate dynasties. Even the Republican Civil War of 1911 - 1949 remained primarily intra-Chinese affairs, except from 1937 and to 1945, when the Japanese were invading. Even then the impact of the Civil War itself on the outside world was very limited. Western and Japanese traders and missionaries in China carried on with business as usual, safe in their concession zones, and the world economy was not greatly affected by the Chinese War.

A Chinese Civil War in the 21st Century would be different. Unlike the Dynasties or even the early Republic the PRC is a modern state, with relatively centralized government and its citizens have a modern sense of nationalism. Assuming the globalized arteries of communication, trade and diplomacy remained intact during such an event, the collapse of the world's second largest economy would be something quite serious to the rest of the world. Unlike in the past, China is not isolated from its Asian neighbours by geography, nor are they part of European empires. Western powers can no longer invade and impose control or treaties at will. All of East Asia would be destabilized. Perhaps there would even be organized piracy similar to what happened in Somalia, but many times worse.

Previously, Chinese Civil Wars didn't have great effects outside China, and foreign interventions were only of limited or predatory nature. That certainly won't be the case should there be another one.
 
I didn't say it wouldn't impact the rest of the world.

I don't think China would collapse entirely, it would probably split into several warring states (again) which would intermittently fight each other. Economic activity wouldn't stop entirely, though the usual global economic patterns would be disrupted and China would be impoverished (at least the areas where most of the fighting would be concentrated). I guess other developing countries would pounce on the chance to take a slice of the gap in the market that China would have left. Americans would breathe a sigh of relief that their debt got erased, even ;)

As for Australia, it would certainly lose a big market for its resources, but there are other buyers.
 
Not going to happen in the future PEAK OIL!!! yeah um the party is going to retain control no matter what for at least the next 50 years, the populace are still apathetic to democracy

Maybe they just disagree with it? :p
 
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