[RD] Clinton vs. Trump - USA Presidential race.

That sounds really funny to me for some reason and somewhat plausible.

"Oh you were totes serious?"

"Well I guess we're doing that now."

Wow. CNN just released a poll showing that Clinton is getting CRUSHED among non college educated whites even worse than Romney crushed Obama...which is hard to imagine. The flip side is that she is now, according to that poll, LEADING among college educated whites, where Obama got soundly beaten by Romney. If you plug these numbers into the 538 "swing o meter" gizmo the electoral vote shifts slightly towards Clinton. If you add a ten percent increase in Hispanic turnout plus a ten point gain in Hispanic support, both of which are distinctly possible, you get an EPIC blowout.

I didn't know where to put this, but here felt appropriate.

I wonder how much of that is convention bounce. The poorly educated are Trump's base, and the entire GOP convention was aimed squarely at that base. It would of course be folly to assume that he can't drive margins like that in the general, but I think the Democrats realize that.

There's also the possibility that driving up those margins only helps him win bigger margins in red states. And in states like PA, where a lot of those people are union guys and gals, their opinions may change once the unions start turning the screws.

metalhead said:

I wonder how much of that is convention bounce. The poorly educated are Trump's base, and the entire GOP convention was aimed squarely at that base. It would of course be folly to assume that he can't drive margins like that in the general, but I think the Democrats realize that.

There's also the possibility that driving up those margins only helps him win bigger margins in red states. And in states like PA, where a lot of those people are union guys and gals, their opinions may change once the unions start turning the screws.

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I can't find the polling. It was just a roll across the screen in the convention coverage...but the really critical thing was the Clinton leading among college educated whites. To actually win that demographic, or even make it really close, would be a watershed moment.

metalhead said:

... lot of those people are union guys and gals, their opinions may change once the unions start revealing the true facts..

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fixed

Timsup2nothin said:

I can't find the polling. It was just a roll across the screen in the convention coverage...but the really critical thing was the Clinton leading among college educated whites. To actually win that demographic, or even make it really close, would be a watershed moment.

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This is the first I've heard of this. What I have heard is that, among college-educated whites, Trump suffered a "negative bounce."

Holy crap! Now they are chanting USA USA USA at the democratic party convention while being addressed by a retired general. The GOP has lost its grip on its absolutely central core.

Kaitzilla said:

Where was this concern about checks and balances on Presidential Power the last 8 years I wonder.

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Checking and mating President Obama's ‘Socialist tyranny’.

red_elk said:

It looks like CFC is overwhelmingly against Trump now, which is strange giving that both candidates are nearly equally popular in the US. I wonder, are there any people here who support Trump?

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Somewhere in Kansas, I believe there is one.

Donald Drumpf is trying to alienate as many people as possible. His campaign is about excluding while his opponent's is about including. DJD's method doesn't work in the long run, not when the mass of people you want to attract is dwindling.

Timsup2nothin said:

Holy crap! Now they are chanting USA USA USA at the democratic party convention while being addressed by a retired general. The GOP has lost its grip on its absolutely central core.

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The same happened yesterday with a retired rear-admiral.

Timsup2nothin said:

Holy crap! Now they are chanting USA USA USA at the democratic party convention while being addressed by a retired general. The GOP has lost its grip on its absolutely central core.

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Yeah, the DNC has really been gunning for the political center. Gay Latina police chief, parents of soldiers who died in war, veterans, and now this. I can't think of any reasonable way to disagree with these speakers. Liberals appreciate the diversity, demands for justice, and justified criticism of Trump, while conservatives would like the police and military angle, and would have a hard time attacking them.

That said, a very large amount of conservatives have already abandoned traditional Republican policies and values in order to follow Trump, and conservatives are probably not watching the DNC anyway.

Hopefully, though, some remaining centrists will take note.

Timsup2nothin said:

Holy crap! Now they are chanting USA USA USA at the democratic party convention while being addressed by a retired general. The GOP has lost its grip on its absolutely central core.

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Any particular reason to celebrate the DP becoming another right-wing party?
Contrary to the view that this will give them 'the center', i think it will make people even more disillusioned with what those parties are, namely a right wing (dem) and a more right wing (gop) "choice".

Which may even cost the democratic party an otherwise easy re-election, given it chose to rally behind one of the worst candidates it had, the nepotist/fraud/plutocracy one. I have to suppose that there are few people who are actually enthusiastic about voting for Hillary, and if the worst happens - they just don't bother to vote - you may end up with Trump, something for which the dem party also would be crucially to blame given Trump would lose to any mildly savoury candidate in a general election.

Phrossack said:

Yeah, the DNC has really been gunning for the political center. Gay Latina police chief, parents of soldiers who died in war, veterans, and now this. I can't think of any reasonable way to disagree with these speakers. Liberals appreciate the diversity, demands for justice, and justified criticism of Trump, while conservatives would like the police and military angle, and would have a hard time attacking them.

That said, a very large amount of conservatives have already abandoned traditional Republican policies and values in order to follow Trump, and conservatives are probably not watching the DNC anyway.

Hopefully, though, some remaining centrists will take note.

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I am a NeverTrump conservative. I have actually been quite impressed with the Democrat Convention. It has been incredibly inclusive, positive, uplifting and patriotic.

Kyriakos said:

Any particular reason to celebrate the DP becoming another right-wing party?
Contrary to the view that this will give them 'the center', i think it will make people even more disillusioned with what those parties are, namely a right wing (dem) and a more right wing (gop) "choice".

Which may even cost the democratic party an otherwise easy re-election, given it chose to rally behind one of the worst candidates it had, the nepotist/fraud/plutocracy one. I have to suppose that there are few people who are actually enthusiastic about voting for Hillary, and if the worst happens - they just don't bother to vote - you may end up with Trump, something for which the dem party also would be crucially to blame given Trump would lose to any mildly savoury candidate in a general election.

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Nepotist/fraud/plutocracy?
Do you mean the candidate who relies on his children, who's scammed his creditors four times via multiple bankruptcies, and who says he should be given power because he's rich?

Takhisis said:

Nepotist/fraud/plutocracy?
Do you mean the candidate who relies on his children, who's scammed his creditors four times via multiple bankruptcies, and who says he should be given power because he's rich?

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Hill is also bigly in the same nepotist boat

1 out of 3 so far, Kyr, if we can prove HRC a nepotist.

@Kyriakos,

at the moment, these threads are filled with "I'm with her" people. What they forget amongst all the DNC staged show: Trump is pulling ahead in polls.

Seems that HRC is not really such an attractive candidate (surprise surprise). In fact, we all know, two of the most hated people are the front runners of the major parties here. Let's hope both sides get so disillusioned over the years, that one fine day, the USA will field some proper candidates again.

ThERat said:

@Kyriakos,

at the moment, these threads are filled with "I'm with her" people. What they forget amongst all the DNC staged show: Trump is pulling ahead in polls.

Seems that HRC is not really such an attractive candidate (surprise surprise). In fact, we all know, two of the most hated people are the front runners of the major parties here. Let's hope both sides get so disillusioned over the years, that one fine day, the USA will field some proper candidates again.

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Grasp at straws much? Polls between the conventions? Really? Desperation is ugly man, really ugly.

metalhead said:

I wonder how much of that is convention bounce. The poorly educated are Trump's base, and the entire GOP convention was aimed squarely at that base. It would of course be folly to assume that he can't drive margins like that in the general, but I think the Democrats realize that.

There's also the possibility that driving up those margins only helps him win bigger margins in red states. And in states like PA, where a lot of those people are union guys and gals, their opinions may change once the unions start turning the screws.

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My union is working on it (we're also on that top 20 Hillary donors list).

"And, Alisyn, I'll tell you - just to tell the American public - if you've never learned to play an instrument [and] you wanna learn one: the harmonica. It's okay to suck; in fact, that's how you make half the notes."

"Okay, dad."

- Tim Kaine and CNN New Day host Alisyn Camerota this morning

Kyriakos said:

Any particular reason to celebrate the DP becoming another right-wing party?
Contrary to the view that this will give them 'the center', i think it will make people even more disillusioned with what those parties are, namely a right wing (dem) and a more right wing (gop) "choice".

Which may even cost the democratic party an otherwise easy re-election, given it chose to rally behind one of the worst candidates it had, the nepotist/fraud/plutocracy one. I have to suppose that there are few people who are actually enthusiastic about voting for Hillary, and if the worst happens - they just don't bother to vote - you may end up with Trump, something for which the dem party also would be crucially to blame given Trump would lose to any mildly savoury candidate in a general election.

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My prediction about the next few years is that the Democrats will absorb the pro-business types who used to be the 'mainstream' Republican party, while the Republicans transform rapidly from an extreme pro-business party to a right-wing populist one like the FN, UKIP, FPÖ, Sweden Democrats, etc. It used to be that a pro-business 'elite' minority used right-wing populist noises to draw along the base to vote for them, then enacted policies their base never supported. Trump broke that link, and it is likely that the link will stay broken, leading to the realignment I've sketched out that sees the Republican party turn into a full-fledged right-wing populist party with the neoliberals driven to the Democratic party.

The resulting situation will be very familiar to our European users: a neoliberal 'big tent' centrist party, resembling the grand coalitions that exist in e.g. Germany and Austria, opposes a right-wing populist (aka far-right) Republican party. If the Democrats become unpopular enough, it's still quite possible that we could see another Republican president, either Trump or some successor to him. An absolute blowout in non-college-educated whites is enough to make up for losing all the other demographics for the moment, although this will become less likely as time goes on.

It's not clear what happens to the Sanders camp. They will try to pull the party farther left and may at times pull this off to some extent, but as all the monied interests fall in line behind the Democrats, they are likely to be overwhelmed on economic issues in the short-to-medium term. A few concessions, such as a higher minimum wage or slight increases in social spending, will probably be thrown their way from time to time, but the basic structure of the system will remain roughly the way it is today.