It's hard to say without playing, but I'd guess Shoshone or Poland.
Shoshone depend a lot on how the AI can use Pathfinders, and the limits of AI happiness. If the AI can still rapidly expand early, then they can claim even more land than usual, really starving nearby players for land. But the real danger is the Pathfinder. The AI should start with 3 Pathfinders, and if they successfully use them to gobble up ruins (and choose the proper rewards) then the AI becomes even more impossibly good at the crucial early stages of the game.
Poland will just be a ***** to war with. The Winged Hussar can seriously F up your battle formation, exposing the weaker units (CB and XB, Artillery) to danger. Additionally, Ducal Stable gives them early gold that seems elusive in BNW, and additional social policies are nothing to scoff at, especially since they receive the social policy as new trees become available. This is more dangerous in a good player's hands (no more timing social policies to click as you hit the Renaissance!) but 7 additional social policies throughout the game will surely help the AI, as well.
But hey, since the game isn't out yet, I have no idea! Before playing, I'd have never guessed that Hiawatha would be my Most Feared Enemy!