A big fight happened. All I have shots of are the results so I'll put that and try to explain it through.
Most of their army moved to the tile marked "10". They had more units it seemed, in poison and elsewhere, the galleons appeared to have made another trip and because of that I was willing to risk leaving bubble gum exposed. Basically we had 3 stacks and workers to road 2 of them, and with the bubble gum city stack slightly better than the river-hike stack from poison, i used bubble gum. Here's how it went:
(our unit v theirs, our strength v theirs, our odds, our result)
cat v mace, 5 v 8, 15.1%, lose
cat v mace, 5 v 8, 15.1%, lose
cat v mace, 5 v 7.27, 28.4%, lose
cat v mace, 5 v 7.27, 28.4%, lose
WE v pike, 8.8 v 8.65, 51.2%, lose
WE v xbow, 8.8 v 4.68, 96.6%, win
mace v mace, 8 v 6.4, 84.3%, win
WE v mace, 8 v 5.6, 88.8%, loss
HA v mace, 6 v 5.44, 69.0%, lose
HA v pike, 6 v 5.29, 82.3%, win
HA v mace, 6 v 4.16, 89.5%, win
HA v treb, 6 v 4, 90.1%, win
xbow v treb, 7.2 v 4, 97.7%, win
xbow v cat, 7.2 v 4.05, 98.0%, win
xbow v treb, 6 v 4, 92.7%, win
axe v treb, 5 v 4, 75.1% lose
And the aftermath of all this is what's shown above.
And here are the results of them taking poison, earlier in the turn
(our unit defending v theirs, our # v theirs, our odds, our result)
xbow v treb, 4 v 4, 43.2%, withdraw
longbow v treb, 3.56 v 4, 24.6%, withdraw
xbow v mace, 3.3 v 8, 1.5%, lose
longbow v mace, 2.47 v 8, 0.2%, lose
Much the same up here,