Demographics

Hm ... apparently, Team Sirius has 5 hammers already.

I assume that this means they are on top of a plains hill since the game never naturally gives you a 4 unimproved tile. Or they could be on top of stone or marble - but I doubt it, so my current theory is that they are on a plains hill and are working a 3 forested plains hill. Most likely to to build a workboat since they are Willem van Oranje and start with fishing. They could, though, be building a worker - but then they would probably be best off with a 3F 1C tile so I still think they're on a workboat. The 2 food they've got is because of their city center, right?

And, as babybluepants said, they've got 7 land tiles in their original 9. So they're almost certainly coastal.

Last thing - we need to figure out what their GNP means. They generate 4 culture per turn because of their creative trait so 18-4=14 GNP for other factors. Any ideas? Remember they start with Fishing and Agriculture (I think). Also, they generate 4 GNP per turn due to espionage, so 14-4 = 10 GNP left over.

-I'll settle in place soon (hopefully 1 more team plays before us, easier to analyze that way).

Edit: Here's GNP:



Edit: demographics re-pasted here so I can add info easily on 1 page.

Started one with Willem to check.
They're on a PH, working a forested PH, building a WB, I think.
Got 18 GNP, as well.

4 GNP for the espionage, so they've got 10 left. Makes sense. You get 9 from palace and city center so is the 10th one the free city bonus?

babybluepants - can you test and see if 18 stays the same depending on what tech you research? I imagine it wouldn't since no tech is researched on turn 0 really.

Demographics after settling in place. We have 17 GNP, if we were Creative we'd have 19 so we've got 1 more than Team Sirius - which makes sense anyway if they're working a 3F plains hill since they wouldn't get a commerce resource like we are with the rice.

Demos after only Sirius and us have settled:

4 EP + 4 Culture + 9bpt = 17 Not sure where the 18th comes from?
If I switch to coast (3gpt), I get 21 under GNP.
There's no research on this turn.

babybluepants - demos updated. I think the 18th is the "you have a city" bonus.

Actually, 1 advantage of our settling is that the team that is Hannibal never got to login, so they are stuck with the specter of having 2 civilizations who already settled in place. Already, we have a slight espionage advantage over the Carthaginians! (Hannibal = Quatronia.)

Ok, put it my original post for reference.

Reserving turns in one post for easier reference sounds like a great idea. Why don't you do it?

Hmmm weird, I started a few Willem games with the same map settings and automatically got 20 GNP working no commerce, even though the maths indicates that what DMOC is saying is right, oh well... Anyway we shouldn't forget that they may switch tiles worked, a strategy we may employ as well i.e "working" a high commerce tile to give the others the idea that we may be going for a reli, then switching to the rice tile before the turn ends...

Good point. They may switch tiles. Hopefully they don't since that really makes espionage harder.

After Quatronia ended turn. 3 teams played.

Going to sleep now, so anyone available, please login to take more demographics after other teams settle.

All starts so far are coastal, Quatronia appear to be working a 2food tile, perhaps a grassland forest, maybe with some spices on it...

DMOC said:

Going to sleep now, so anyone available, please login to take more demographics after other teams settle.

Click to expand...

I'll keep checking every hour or so

One thing to bear in mind with demographics is that if the tech they're researching is a second-tier tech (and so has prerequisites) the GNP is adjusted with the 20% bonus for researching something for which you have a prerequisite.

I'll have a good look at some numbers very shortly...

So we know exactly what the soldiers situation is:

Amazon/Cyrus: 2000 (Hunting)
CDZ/Ragnar: 2000 (Hunting)
Merlot/Pacal II: 4000 (Mining, Warrior)
Quatronia/Hannibal: 4000 (Mining, Warrior)
Sirius/Willem: 2000 (Warrior)
Us/Gandhi: 4000 (Mining, Warrior)

I'm struggling to figure out where our 17th GNP point is coming from. 10 comm + 2 culture + 4 esp = 16? We're not getting a research bonus on Agriculture, as we haven't met the teams that have it already, and there aren't any prerequisites.

Here's the updated stats after Ragnar finally settled. Sneaky bastards tried to pull this off in the middle of the night.

Just to confirm that the spurious 1 extra GNP we're seeing is the free "you have a city bonus". Haven't had time to crunch any number so far, but we seem to be very much on the ball! Keep the screens coming!

Thanks for the confirmation, Niklas. I always heard of this so called bonus but never really read it anywhere.

We've now got 4 teams who settled, 2 left to go. 2 teams have ended their turns (not us yet).

The land area intrigues me. Recall that X000 land area = X land tiles. (7000 + 7000 + 7000 + 0 + 0) / 5 = 4200 but the game says it's 4000 for our "rival average." I can only assume that our rival land area is (7000 + 7000 + 6000 + 0 + 0) / 5 = 4000 which means that one of the teams has 1 less land tile in its starting 9 tiles. More analysis leads to the conclusion that it must be the Vikings (Team CDZ) who start with the 6-land tile interior due to the calculations from after Hannibal (Quatronia) settled. What probable information can we derive from this? It's likely that every team starts coastal, as expected anyway. So prepare to see someone looking at the Great Lighthouse wonder.

The nice thing about land area is that it can't really be adjusted unlike the GNP, etc. since you can switch tiles to affect that. Now it's time to see if we can figure out anything from GNP, production ... or "life expectancy," but I'm not really fluent on that demographic category yet although I know it has something to do with the happy/health cap.

It's also nice when we've got people who can catch the others in the middle of the night. It's morning now where I am.

Some more info, assuming teams don't adjust their tiles.

4 civs known, 2 still have to go.



For production, it gets a bit more confusing since the #'s are all low so tough to deduce from math.

Our production and Siruis' production are known for sure. However, possible scenarios for Quatronia and CDZ include:

1. Quatronia 1, CDZ 2
2. Quatronia 1, CDZ 3
3. Quatronia 1, CDZ 4
4. Quatronia 1, CDZ 5
5. Quatronia 2, CDZ 1
6. Quatronia 2, CDZ 2 (most likely)
7. Quatronia 2, CDZ 3
8. Quatronia 2, CDZ 4 (Probably not)
9. Quatronia 2, CDZ 5

I think it's safe to say we can eliminate 1-5, because we have a MFG rank of 4, so Quatronia and CDZ must have a minimum production of 2. I think they can have a production of 2 since rank 4 means that others can be tied for us and we can still be 4th - remember 2 other teams have yet to settle. Also, we can probably eliminate 8 and 9 since CDZ has a food yield of 5 (tied with us) so they'd be hard pressed to get even 3 production out of their starting location.

More information: based on GNP info, CDZ has a GNP of 19. 19 - (6 from palace, 1 from bonus) = 12 GNP left for commerce. 9 is from the palace, so they are working a 3 commerce tile (they're financial, remember). Thus, I can only assume it's either a coast or, most likely, an oasis. Of course, there's also the possibility that they've settled on top of a resource that gives them more commerce. If they are working coast/oasis then its likely they have a MFG of 1 or 2. Of course this is venturing into unknown territory here.



Here is food. This makes sense, since we are 2nd, tied with CDZ.

I edited some numbers in my first screenshot post last night, but yours is prettier. Keep that up.

I thought we'd just do a summary like this at the end of each turn, 'cause this thread will get messy in a hurry.