what if the cold war had turned hot?

this post aims to explain the offensive posture of the Soviets in the Central European theater . First things first , this is not a Commie apologism . Just like only Nixon could go to China , ı have enough credibility in Moskof bashing . This said , ı will avoid further references to myself for the duration of the post .

though expect thingz at the very end ... Otherwise it is mostly serious .

the Red Army lost its mission to Sovietize the world in June 1941 , they were unable to get over the millions they lost in their Great Patriotic War . Once America arrayed the West against the Reds of all stripes , there was no chance for Moscow to win a prolonged conventional war . Anectodes serve any purpose you want them to , yet they still convey a piece of the story . At the end of the war America asked for the "payment" part of the Lend Lease , you either bought the stuff or gave it back . A Sherman unit in Manchuria spent hectic days if not weeks to prepare their charges for the return trip and their officers arrived in Vladivostok to witness the Americans at work . A ship docked in port , loading hundreds of fighter aircraft and immediately crushing them into piles of metal just like those cars we would always see destroyed in junkyards in American movies where the leading actor would save the leadig actress in the nick of the time . When full the ship sailed out to empty its cargo into the ocean and came back for more . Russian tankers didn't give their tanks back , they had lived in them and in cases died in them . Turrets were removed and the hulls became tractors in Siberia . Americans agreed , they were saved from tedious work . This wasn't some specific anti-Commie trick , the Dutch hopes of getting something from a plane boneyard in Indonesia were dashed when Americans simply bulldozed some 1000 to 1200 B-24 and P-38s into the ground .

this was at a time when Russian aviation industry was working on Condition Red to redesign their planes for peace service . A Russian fighter averaged 80 flying hours in wartime , such expenditure meant immediate bankruptcy in the coming Cold War . Since it was obvious that there would be one . Russian personnel who had operated Lend Lease material had it in their files and they kept operating Lend Lease material . Because there would be American company representatives for feedback and the Russians in contact with them were kinda contaminated . Keeping with the Shermans , in 1943 they were found to be dangerous to drive on icy roads becasue of their rubber padded tracks . Russians improvised with barbed wire strung around the tracks , the American saw the problem and the solution , the next Sherman shipment arrived with redesigned tracks . In the legendary Communist paranoia this wasn't exactly good . People might have started to talk good of the Dark Forces across the ocean .

talking of paranoias , one Russian fixation that survived the WW2 was the air threat . From "The Bomber will always get through" of 1930s which was endemic to all nations to actual combat experience in Spain where they first made a huge impression until the arrival of the Bf-109 turned everything upside down Russians were sort of troubled with it . I-16s had been using vertical tactics to the better turning of the Nationalist Fiats when the new German fighter plane arrived and they had to resort to manouvre . Once ordered it took time unorder it , ı understand no Russian fighter used dive attacks against Germans until a new directive in 1942 . Further in the war , lacking in engine tech Russian fighter planes had to resort to light weight meaning lack of firepower : ground attack versions of FW-190s , kinda slightly armoured, wouldn't come down . That's if they could be caught at zero level where they could outrun Russians . A bad thing , especially if it is also considered that Russians had given up high altitude to any enemy power so that they could cover and support the Red Army , their trumpcard .

korea was likewise bad . While the MiG-15 conclusively showed the Russians had to means to intercept a surprise American nuclear attack (which was as grave a threat to world peace as any Communist aggression) it definitely failed to wrest the air superiority from F-86 and the Communist ground troops suffered accordingly on the firing line at the DMZ . Vietnam was more of the same , despite heavy losses up North , American tactical air operated practically at will . In both cases Communist military casualties were measured in millions . The Middle East wars also added to the perception that a conventional global war was unwinnable if that "bad air" was around .

on the other hand a global nuclear war "was" far better if unfought .

meaning there was hardly ever a Russian intention to start a world war but there were tons of conviction to deter the evil West . Rightly or wrongly the Soviets felt this Free World was after them , which of course did not stop 'em Commies from interfering in or inventing griveances for people under the yoke of Cappies . Which finally distills to the question at hand . Russians had to win quickly if they wanted or were forced to fight when size of armies could determine the result , not the size of economies . They would have a one-shot before America rushed its full weight of the Air forces into the point of contact , meaning it would help if the targets were nearby and concentrated . Political disagreements and some sympaty in locals in situ would also help . Yeah , say , what happens if Russians decide to invade Istanbul ? Nothing . Afterall we know there are people who would invade Izmir if Istanbul falls . But if they were to catch Western Europe pants down and roll over in a week maximum , they might conceivably stare down Uncle Sam , from the global nuclear exchange . Those Category A divisions in East Germany , Poland and Czechoslovakia were instrumental to world peace ... Which kinda explains there weren't many more in other theatres .

it has already been pointed out here that the single purpose of theTurkish military forces in WW3 was to keep the airfields open for 48 hours . So that "air" could get going . A lie naturally but the Russians were also posturing mightily about their military might . This is indeed dead serious . On an aviation forum somebody , presumably German , said that when Israelis destroyed the Syrian SAM batteries in Bekaa Valley in 1982 , proving Soviet style divisional air defences could be defeated , Russians gave up the ghost and "made peace" hence Perestroika . Since now they knew they could never make it to Cherbourg .

wrong . KGB quickly discovered that the Red Army was not capable of winning in drawn out fighting , GRU knew it from its day one . Barring some divine intervention and you know divinity was not a popular concept back then . Perestroika would have happened in 1970s but for Brejnev and his doctrine that postulated Communism would stay where ever it was . As such some of the concepts of restructuring were total counterrevolutionary mischief for those who had seen Stalinism in action . Andropov , the head of KGB , was the guy who carried the need for reform and he died early , passing the torch to Gorbachov who lacked the total means of control etc etc . And of course the only reason the hardliners or for that matter the softliners consented to the calls for reform were the forthcoming Russki toys ; the double digit SAMs and the Flanker/Fulcrum duo . Omission of the Foxhound is intentional , it would have happened irregardless , seeping the avionics into other programmes . The new generation of the Russian jets were definitely capable of duking it out with the best of the West . Gorby stressed a defensive army , only because for the first time in the entire duration of the Cold War it was possible for the Soviets to exist with a defensive strategy .

if only because they still remembered the times they set out to conquer the world once their first , second or third 5 year plans were completed . Once you are set to be be against the West , the capabilities and "advantages" of the opposition can be quite mind numbing . Soviets , a radical transformation of the Tsarist Russia , was still an expansionist / imperialist edifice and they were fully of the opinion if they did not expand into Capitalist sphere , Capitalists would expand into Communist sphere . Plus it would be even harder to convince the hot blooded youth of Liberation movements here and there who were to do the actual dying and killing to face that mind numbingness if Russians were happy to let spineless Europeans breathe easily . Which then simply coagulated to an understandable agreement between Russians who loved their country enough to die for it and Russians who would sell their country if it meant a higher seat in the Party . Onto the Channel for world peace !

sez the guy who sez the 48 hours for airfields . Who needs airfields ! Fielding Incom 65s ı certainly do not ...
 
But surely NATO had some sort of non-nuclear first strike plan? It would seem foolish of them not to, since everyone knows you can't win a purely defensive war.

NATO almost certainly had spoiler attacks with air power and special forces planned if an attack from the Soviets seemed imminent. But a full scale offensive attack right out of the gate was just not in the cards with the combat power NATO then had in western europe (including reforger assets). The plan was to give ground and let the Soviet forces completely wreck themselves, then transition over to the offensive.
 
The United States could have pulled off a victory in the situation of a limited nuclear exchange....however if the conflict remains on a conventional level NATO would be hard pressed to pull of a victory, but with air and naval superiority on their side the alliance would at the very least be able to slow the Soviets enough to bring them to the table.
 
My best guess: the Warsaw Pact would make some heavy gains at first, but ultimately get pushed back as the entire industrial base of the US got converted to wartime production. The capitalist economy will always out-produce the Communist one.

They wouldn't even try to take Alaska. Too many civilians with guns.
 
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