Alternate History Thread V

That doesn't really answer my question. All the trade you could want is in the opposite direction. The Chinese were not, to my knowledge and with certain exceptions, particularly keen on exploration for its own sake, but there is always Africa or something to explore.

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Perhaps a better way of what I said was, though the purpose of the Treasure Fleet was to replenish the imperial coffers, an underlying motive was to also find out where Zhu Yunwen might have gone. One way of doing this was apparently trying to convince the surrounding kingdoms of the legitimacy of Zhu Di's rule. He could do this through two methods, either throw scare tactics (which he did in some cases, I believe Annam was one of them but I could be spelling it wrong) or through gaining the good will of his neighbors, there by making them less likely to harbor his fugitive uncle (I think Yunwen was his uncle =/ ).

If you remove Yunwen from the equation, wouldn't it be possible that he would be more likely to seek out more trade partners if the only purpose of the Treasure Fleet was to GET RICH OR DIE TRYIN'!! =D

I'm still probably not explaining it correctly *frustration*

EDIT:- To clarify my point, the motivation of money and what not would get them to explore more trade partners. Just a note, the majority of the Treasure Fleet would be going on the same voyages as they did OTL, however a small portion would do the exploring.

EDIT2:- Also I'm not sure if I mentioned it before or not but the eunuchs would be growing in power in the imperial court, pushing aside Confucians. The eunuchs way of rising to power had been through the navy and hence they believe that by increasing the size and importance of the navy allows them to further expand their influence, which indeed it does.

If so, then that's pretty ironic considering the results.

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Word.

See, all of that still gives them no motivation whatsoever to swim east. They don't know that there is anything worth looking for there; rather, they know that it would be a waste of expensive ships that are, for all the reasons you have given, best sent south and south-west. There are many trading partners to find, many small kingdoms to intimidate, and if Zhu Yunwen had escaped overseas the best place to look might be, I don't know, Taiwan or Vietnam or even Malaya, not the huge empty ocean to the east.

No one, to my knowledge, had ever purposefully set out for the unknown. People stumbled into new continents while looking for something else (like you know who) or simply while unimaginatively moving along in a consistent direction (like the Vikings, or the Treasure Fleet, actually). The Europeans sailed west because they knew China and India were there and were trying to find a short-cut; they really could've used that short-cut, because they were dependent on trade with Asia for a great many things. I don't recall off hand whether or not the Chinese ever put it together that one can reach Europe by sailing east, but regardless, they have scarcely ever heard of Europe, never paid it much heed and never thought that it had anything they might want, which it didn't. The Ming didn't have the slightest diplomatic contacts with Europe, until Europe came to them, and even then they didn't seem to care all that much - the Europeans were just another marauding band of pirates/traders to them, nowhere near the importance of, say, Japan or Vietnam, whose rulers were significant enough to send embassies to and to demand obeisance from. Again, all they could ever want for the purposes you have outlined (and by the way, I am really not convinced by the pragmatic economic part of it; the expeditions really had more to do with court intrigues and imperial prestige plus a bit of private initiative than with anything else, incidentally much like most such ambitious "foreign policy initiatives" in Chinese history, and I seem to recall that Imperial China never really considered foreign trade very important or useful for filling the treasury, except maybe during the Southern Song - the treasury is filled with taxes first and foremost, trade tariffs are a relatively small and irregular part of it) was in the southwest and would've already been enough of a strain on the treasury to look into.

This discussion is interesting, because China (and thus East Asia as a whole) always ends up incredibly boring in most alternate historical NES settings. It is either all powerful, with huge borders, virtually unchanged, or divided into an obvious north-south duality (usually with the North being some kind of barbarian takeover).

The ideas I have generally involve a 3 kingdoms like setting transplanted to a later age, but with even more distinct characters of each state than in the Romance...

What about if some guy thinks that there is an alternate route to the rich... uh, Africa, through the east, and gets enough patronage?

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It's really probably easier to just travel to East Africa along the known sea-routes. People tend to take the easy way out, anyway: the only reason the Spanish went for the western route was because the Portuguese already had the more obvious and easy-to-use circum-Africa route covered.

Edit: Actually, no, what if it was for any reason at all? I mean, crazy patrons can do what they want if rich and powerful enough, right? They'll only need to outfit maybe one or three ships. Non-economic, non-political reasons surely must have influenced some great actions of historical significance in history dot dot dot.

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That's true, but there still needs be a reason, if not necessarily a rational one, to go east of all the possible directions. I can think of just one such reason for China, though there might be more; I'm wondering when it is going to be referenced, actually.

Though, I suppose one other possibility might be to take a leaf from the old fairy-tales and have Zheng He or someone else lose big in the court intrigues without being officially destroyed outright, and be saddled with a futile task, like an expedition across the eastern ocean.

The ideas I have generally involve a 3 kingdoms like setting transplanted to a later age, but with even more distinct characters of each state than in the Romance...

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I'm not really sure that's viable; the original system only lasted for as long as it took for the north to recover even partly, and even that took a lot of strokes of luck for the southern states. It's true that the South started out as a periphery and transformed into a much more prosperous part of China partly during and indeed thanks to the Three Kingdoms, but that transformation also had as a consequence a greater degree of economic integration. It's hard to get anything other than the OTL model or either of the two scenarios suggested, though I should note that there still is plenty of freedom and variation within those constraints: China United in particular can have very different foci and degrees of success.

Perhaps an earlier PoD might help, though. Maybe an East-West division (Qin/Chu) could in certain circumstances prove more viable? In that case, the far south might remain in Viet and Tai hands, which would certainly be interesting. Actually, I don't think we ever had a Greater Vietnam here.

I don't think it's that hard to achieve; the south is always a hotbed of rebellion and even in the Three Kingdoms the two southern kingdoms were basically allied. Economic integration can and is broken in periods of chaos, and the three kingdoms are distinct economic zones: the Huang He based north, the more maritime based South, and the Sichuan based Southwest. The point is for the two southern kingdoms to be culturally distinct but able to resist the North (which is always typefied as more belligerent). Perhaps adding a strong Turkic state harassing the North in modern day Xinjiang or giving the Shu analogue control over Xizang could also help that balance.

I think East Asia can be very interesting if you some how manage to make South East Asia powerful as well as a Korea more resistant to China and a Japan that comes out from isolation.

But all of that is a crap load of things

@das:- I see your point and I'm trying to think of some alternate reasons.

1) Obscure reference in some obscure text of mystical or even possibly alchemical nature; may be invented (artistic license) or researched (will disregard documents that did not survive the ages)

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That's what I was talking about, pretty much. See Qin Shi Huangdi and his expeditions.

2) Finding the "source" of the Sun (I guess this depends on the beliefs of the patrons and would-be explorer)

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The Chinese did not seem to be particularly concerned with that, as far as I know; their scientific curiosity extended more to what has been called "earthly miracles" - strange natural phenomena that can be studied up close. Astrology wasn't really their shtick, so to speak.

By "heroic thinkers", do you just mean any "Great People" that are connected mainly with culture rather than politics or warfare? If so, then the coherentising thing is something of a generalisation; the most successful of them (in the sense of wide acceptance) probably were, but there were also major exceptions. Intellectual trends are indeed something that has been confounding me for some time, at least NES-wise, since mostly I am unsure to what extent player stories should be allowed to affect them (though it seems indisputable that that should be the main means of player influence on the "non-state ideological" sphere, if any are to exist at all).

Alternate history as such does not have those problems, but has different ones. Modeling the development of Confucianism in a somewhat changed Medieval China is one thing, though it can be difficult enough, but we really have no idea how would a surviving Aztec Empire look at things in the 20th century. Alternate intellectual history might require even more imagination than ordinary alternate history, and the line between imaginative interpretation and utter irrealism is even thinner than usual.

Thanks to both das and fc for their ideas, I think I might either use the #4 or #1 of fc's suggestions.

What happens to the Mayans, Aztecs, and later Incas (since they are further down the coast and would there for be one of the last to be contacted) when they make first contact with China.

Does China react violently like the Spaniards did? Or the opposite, and they are peacefully traded with and not even colonize.

The drive for China to colonize anything, or even wage war far outside of China, was very low. As das said before, many Chinese simply believed that everything that was worth having was already Chinese. But what happens when China encounters a society in which there is no wheel, no use of complex metallurgy.

Aside from the obvious technological inferiority that the American natives have compared to China what other factors could influence this reaction. The main factor would most likely be the ensuing conversation between Aztecs and the Chinese (for simplicities sake I will say it is Zheng He cause I really love him ). It can either go good or bad, but even if the conversation goes well with one person, one diplomat, the forces at work behind that individual can be vastly different, with much more sinister motives. Another factor would be how the Chinese view the diseases and what not that they inflict on the Aztecs. Do they see it as the gods punishing the Aztecs for their wicked ways and granting the Chinese dominion over them? Or do the Chinese think it is simple coincidence (hard to believe that they would). The most likely out come would be divine providence, considering that spirits were believed to be in everything and thus everything was the work of spirits.

Now the previous paragraph I ask a lot of rhetorical questions, mostly because it helps me sort out my own thoughts. I'd love for your opinions of what might happen between the Aztecs and China.

Also I will be including European colonization within this TL. Their colonization doesn't just stop and other than a few butterfly effects Europe will probably still be the same way as it was up until they realize China is colonizing along with them. However having China being the only nation in East Asia to be anything fun, would make for a pretty boring NES, as far as the power balance goes in that region. One idea for balancing it is to make a strong Japan, that some how is not isolationist and gets gunpowder/guns tech along with the tech for the ships. Or do something with India, or South East Asia. Yes, Korea would still suck.

The "technological inferiority" is not nearly as wide a gap as you make it out to be.

It's doubtful that the Chinese could conquer the new world nations. Simply getting there is several times more difficult than it was for Spain and there's no real incentive for the Chinese to keep going, other than token tribute.

Plagues would likely still hit, but the survivors would have a lot of immunities against European diseases, and the new dynamic states filling in the power vacuum that will arise post-Zheng He would be on slightly more even terms.

Do they see it as the gods punishing the Aztecs for their wicked ways and granting the Chinese dominion over them? Or do the Chinese think it is simple coincidence (hard to believe that they would). The most likely out come would be divine providence, considering that spirits were believed to be in everything and thus everything was the work of spirits.

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Poor phrasing. The epidemic might be considered as punishment from Heaven for the Aztec ruler's personal transgressions, though that would really not mean much politically since, once again, the Chinese never did care all that much about the events in far-off countries, and would not really want to take over far off Mexico. I really don't see them regarding this as an omen to seize Aztec lands, because to my knowledge they never applied the Mandate of Heaven doctrine with a view towards expansion outside of the traditional boundaries of China. What's rather more plausible is that they might advise some of the local malcontents to seize power and receive the title of King of Mexico from the Chinese Emperor himself - thus becoming truly legitimate rulers and saving their country from all manner of troubles as long as they behave. An intriguing alternative, especially good for the exiled courtier scenario, is that the leader of the expedition might simply try and seize power there himself - I don't see why he couldn't if Cortez could pull it off, though holding on might be more of an issue.

Then, ofcourse, there is the fact that Chinese medicine was quite advanced and, in fact, advancing quite significantly in the early Ming period (that was when the first inoculations against smallpox were made, IRC, at least in China). Scholars might very well figure out the real explanation, sort of. Probably won't change much, though.

All in all, the Chinese Emperor would want obeisance and a ritual tribute. Maybe the eunuchs might want to get something more, but then again, gold was not as valued in China as it was in Europe, so I'm not sure if they would be tempted to organise any serious attack. I agree that the first contact hinges entirely on the expedition leader. Lastly, in the long-term America might become a macro-Taiwan - a refuge for pirates and malcontents fleeing from Chinese authorities, provided they have ships that can go there. That alone should have some interesting consequences for the region, especially if the Europeans arrive more or less on schedule - imagine clashing with Chinese mercenaries - or, hell, Chinese rulers - in Mexico, or having to cope with wako pirates at Panama.

Government-driven Chinese colonisation, as opposed to the independent or even anti-government diaspora, will probably be doomed, though; I don't think they would make a bigger effort than they did in the Indian Ocean, but even if they tried to resettle people there, such colonies would probably not be cost-effective and would eventually be abandoned altogether or just to their own devices.

To sum up, the trans-oceanic Chinese Empire is almost definitely impossible, at least without much earlier changes. However, a new China separate from the old China might very well come into existence, which IMHO might be more interesting than the original idea (especially if you make the Ming get overstretched and collapse earlier). Europeans will still arrive, but will find the New World rather more difficult to conquer, because of a smaller technological advantage, a lesser surprise effect, an already recovering population and, last but not least, American states with more experience in dealing with other powers - it has often been pointed out that this lack of "diplomatic experience" was a major factor in the destruction of the Incan Empire, in particular. So we might have surviving Mexican and Andean civilisations (if maybe in somewhat altered forms), an ethnically Chinese (and Japanese?) West Coast of North America, and Europeans in the eastern parts of North and South America and the Caribbean.

The "technological inferiority" is not nearly as wide a gap as you make it out to be.

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Out of curiosity, just how wide does he make it out to be? He simply mentioned that it's there and is significant - surely you won't deny that?

das said:

Out of curiosity, just how wide does he make it out to be? He simply mentioned that it's there and is significant - surely you won't deny that?

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Fair point. I was going more by the technological gap that was implied by the wording.

Anyway, I would say that it is there, that it is significant, but that it is not nearly as significant as people make it out to be; epidemics were much, much more influential (as you know). In some spheres (agriculture comes to mind), the Aztecs were ahead of the Old World. Their cities were far cleaner, better fed, and more populous. Incas had a pretty sweet textile thing going -- see their bridges. They also had some pretty advanced metallurgy -- but they were more concerned with malleability and shininess than durability and sharpness. Militarily, yes, they were pretty far behind... though pretty innovative -- Inca slings and Aztec swords.

They also had some pretty advanced metallurgy

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Agreed on the other points, and technically on this as well, but still, it seems to me that metallurgy was actually one of the main gap regions - they didn't have steel and only recently acquired bronze (at least the Incans did, from what I recall), which put them at a serious disadvantage. Steel and horses were far more important for the military side of the European conquest than gunpowder. Ofcourse, military technological advantages are usually short-term - the natives could adapt them, and could adapt against them, which did happen to some extent but too late to save the civilisations of the Mexico valley and the Andes.

Though ofcourse epidemics and local politics (meaning both the somewhat fragile political systems and the specific issues of the time) were the two most important factors by far.

I was speaking of metallurgy in respect to its application to military technology. But yes i am aware epidemics played a far greater roll in decimating the population of America.

What does one call a Chinese-Native American? A Chiameridan? Chinese diaspora communities would be kinda cool.

das said:

See, all of that still gives them no motivation whatsoever to swim east. They don't know that there is anything worth looking for there; rather, they know that it would be a waste of expensive ships that are, for all the reasons you have given, best sent south and south-west. There are many trading partners to find, many small kingdoms to intimidate, and if Zhu Yunwen had escaped overseas the best place to look might be, I don't know, Taiwan or Vietnam or even Malaya, not the huge empty ocean to the east.

No one, to my knowledge, had ever purposefully set out for the unknown. People stumbled into new continents while looking for something else (like you know who) or simply while unimaginatively moving along in a consistent direction (like the Vikings, or the Treasure Fleet, actually). The Europeans sailed west because they knew China and India were there and were trying to find a short-cut; they really could've used that short-cut, because they were dependent on trade with Asia for a great many things. I don't recall off hand whether or not the Chinese ever put it together that one can reach Europe by sailing east, but regardless, they have scarcely ever heard of Europe, never paid it much heed and never thought that it had anything they might want, which it didn't. The Ming didn't have the slightest diplomatic contacts with Europe, until Europe came to them, and even then they didn't seem to care all that much - the Europeans were just another marauding band of pirates/traders to them, nowhere near the importance of, say, Japan or Vietnam, whose rulers were significant enough to send embassies to and to demand obeisance from. Again, all they could ever want for the purposes you have outlined (and by the way, I am really not convinced by the pragmatic economic part of it; the expeditions really had more to do with court intrigues and imperial prestige plus a bit of private initiative than with anything else, incidentally much like most such ambitious "foreign policy initiatives" in Chinese history, and I seem to recall that Imperial China never really considered foreign trade very important or useful for filling the treasury, except maybe during the Southern Song - the treasury is filled with taxes first and foremost, trade tariffs are a relatively small and irregular part of it) was in the southwest and would've already been enough of a strain on the treasury to look into.

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Incidentally, the Southern Song would be a wonderful time for changing the Chinese attitude towards the rest of the world. A PoD in which the Mongols were weaker/didn't unite/never invaded China might allow for a Song expedition to reach the Americas. The Southern Song were much more accomodating to the idea of exploring and searching (and maybe they could have had a slightly crazy ruler who did believe in sailing across the ocean for the hell of it and then managed to extract mountains of treasure from the Central Americans, making return trips to refill the treasury always worthwhile). The Chinese obviously would not try to conquer these lands; that just wasn't their style. But they would probably set up some trading posts, and they might try settling farmers in OTL California where the native population would be essentially nil after diseases.

You could end of with a sort of mini-China (independent, of course, and possibly lacking contact with the mainland after the inevitable eventual end of the Song, whether by conquest or internal collapse) dominating OTL California by the time any Europeans got to the Americas (with subsequent stronger Native Americans because of disease exposure, and all sorts of butterflies changing the dynamics of at least Central America dramatically; no Aztecs, for one). California is quite similar in climate and geography to the heartlands of China and could support basically any crops or livestock the Chinese tried to import. Would make for a very interesting timeline.

A timeline in which the Mongol invasion of Japan was not destroyed by storms might cause something similar. I could imagine the Mongols sending ships eastward just to check to make sure there was no one else out there to conquer. Any settlement they did establish would consist mostly of ethnic Han, I would imagine, although you could get some interesting Han/other Chinese/Japanese/Korean ethnic tensions in the Mongol American colonies after the Mongol empire collapsed.

I don't think the Southern Song had the resources to cross the Pacific reliably, but a colonial empire is definitely within their reach if they survive.

I mostly agree, and I think I even did something like that in the past though it was flawed, but one small point here: once again, the

mountains of treasure

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that Central Americans had to offer were not of the kind that would've appealed to the Chinese as much as they appealed to the Europeans. Silver might be a bit different, but even then, the Chinese never were in such a desperate need of any valuable metals as the early modern Europeans.

So what is Republicanism like anyway?