Very interesting, thanks for sharing. Are these numbers the same for every civ? Why do some have a range? It does seem crazy that prophet bombing is the same as warmongering, but that explains the AI (over) reaction.
Some of the numbers are always the same, generally anything that occurs as a distinct event: denouncing, declaring friendship, etc. Liberating civilians depends on what unit you return. Lowest is about +20 for a worker, highest is +40 for a settler.
The ones that are variable are the ones that are harder to point out why: for example competing for city states. That depends on flavour for city states and how many you buy or coup out. Coveting your lands and building wonders are the same. These range in increments of -10, starting at -10 down to about -30.
Warmongering is just a continuous penalty, getting worse as you capture more or declare wars. Individual civs tolerance for warmongers determines how much of a penalty you'll suffer. I assume that there's a hidden "warmonger score" that each AI evaluates you on.
The "we traded recently" is surprisingly large but short lived, capping out at +30 for a totally one-sided deal. "They asked for help and we provided it" is quite large too although I can't remember the value exactly. It's at least another +35 and it lasts a long time.
I was still in awe of -250 for converting Enrico. It later dropped to -100. It was probably only so strong because of his one-city empire. Still, I've never seen the conversion penalty be small. You are absolutely 100% making an enemy. -40 or worse is pretty easy to reach and it fades very very slowly even after they convert back.
I think religion is the single greatest discrepancy between how casually they'll do something to you and how angry they'll be when you do it to them. At least most AI will hesitate before forward settling you if you have an army.
