Peace Talks Bog Down

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Indo-Pak peace bid hits a bump

REUTERS[ TUESDAY, AUGUST 24, 2004 04:28:50 AM ]

NEW DELHI: Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf is "confused" and not a little impatient. India is concerned, and Kashmiris are increasingly pessimistic.


The peace process between South Asia's nuclear rivals, at loggerheads for decades over Kashmir, appears to be running into trouble just eight months after it was launched at a summit in Islamabad in January.

"We're in the middle of a serious stall here," said Najam Sethi, editor of Pakistan's Daily Times . "We have spent the better part of eight months without any progress at all. Even the optimism that was in evidence seems to be evaporating."

India's concerns were made public by the Ministry of External Affairs last week. It said Islamic militants were crossing from Pakistani territory into Jammu and Kashmir once again -- and Islamabad was not taking any steps to shut down militant bases on its soil.

For Indian officials, that is a direct breach of a promise made by Musharraf to the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee when they launched the peace process in January.

"The edifice of peace that we wish to build must stand on the twin pillars of mutual trust and confidence," new Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said a week ago. "Of course, trends of cross-border terrorism and violence make that task more difficult."

Pakistan, though, has its own concerns, its own reasons for doubting India's commitment to peace.


Alarm bells first rang in Islamabad when Vajpayee was voted out of office in May's Indian election, to be replaced by a coalition government led by the Congress party, which has ruled India for most of its post-independence history.

Gone was the champion of the peace process who might, just possibly, have opened the door for some kind of compromise on Kashmir, the disputed and divided Himalayan region at the centre of their hostility. In his place a party which, in Pakistani eyes at least, had stonewalled on Kashmir for 50 years.

Singh has vowed to keep the peace process going, but observers say his government has seemed more pre-occupied with keeping its unruly coalition together while designing its own brand of economic reforms "with a human face".

The Ministry of External Affairs is once again running foreign policy, at its helm a minister, Natwar Singh, with a reputation as a hawk. Some of his public remarks have been interpreted in Islamabad as closing off any compromise on Kashmir.

"On one side I am hopeful, while on the other the Indians are giving negative signals," Musharraf told Pakistan's The News in an interview this month. "I am confused."

Pakistan is concerned that India, which controls the lion's share of Kashmir, wants peace without compromise, without offering it the face-saving solution it needs.

Musharraf's impatience is now "palpable", according to Sethi. That could be why Pakistan is once again turning on the "jihadi tap" and sending militants across the border into Indian Kashmir.


Musharraf also warned this month that Pakistan would not agree to any more "confidence-building measures" with India unless New Delhi moved towards substantive dialogue.


Separately, an apparent breakdown of a parallel dialogue between New Delhi and Jammu and Kashmir separatists has added to the pessimism after the government said talks must be held within the Indian constitution which holds Kashmir as an integral part of the country.

"We are not happy with this government," said Moulana Abbas Ansari, a leader of Jammu and Kashmir's All Parties Hurriyat Conference, which has held the first talks ever with the government since the revolt broke out in 1989.

"Congress kept the Kashmir issue lingering during the past 50 years."

Since India's May election, the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan have met on at least three occasions, meetings they never fail to describe as "frank and friendly exchanges".

Negotiators have also tackled a range of other disputes, from disagreements over water sharing to their long-running battle for control of Siachen glacier.

There has been no sign of significant progress, although some analysts say the fact they are talking at all is a good sign, after the two sides came close to war in 2002.

"It would have been unrealistic to have expected solutions to some fairly complex problems," said Samina Ahmed, Pakistan director of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "It is progress enough that the talks are continuing."

All eyes are now turning to a meeting between the two foreign ministers in New Delhi on September 5 and 6, and another between Musharraf and Singh at the United Nations General Assembly later that month. Observers say the leaders of India and Pakistan should have plenty to discuss.





Ah it appears Peace talks or failing. Well it was to be expected. As I've said before peace is impossible. I predict that the next war will happen within the decade.
 
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