SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

Taking the lowest values of Food, Hammers, and Flasks as our "base" values, we can say that:
Test 1 gave us 6 Hammers
Test 2 gave us 5 Food and 4 Flasks
Test 3 gave us 5 Food and 2 Hammers

It sounds to me like Test 2 is the winner, unless the extra 2 Hammers from Test 3 are needed to complete a build item 1 turn sooner, in which case it is more of a judgement call.

I was thinking along the same lines. It's possible that those 4:science: lead to sooner Pottery or Sailing, which could lead to sooner granary or City #2.

@LC In your best test run (last one with Pottery before Sailing), what was the limiting factor? Can you either play forward from one of these tests or let me know exactly what you did and I'll try to make the comparison?
 
Wait. If you revolt to Slavery as soon as BW is learned, you have one less turn of working an uniproved tile. Maybe that's the trick... :)
 
I've been able to nearly duplicate LC's #304. My run went something like this after following my PPP.

T44: Slavery
T45: Whip WB#2 (citizens on Clam, Corn + mine)
T46: WB#2 (clam nets on T47) -> WB#3
T47: WB#3 (first explorer) -> WB#4 Citizens on 2 Clam + Corn.
T49: Grow to 4 -> 2 Clam, Corn + Mine
T55: Grow to 5 -> 2 Clam, Corn, 2 mines. Pottery -> Sailing. WB#4 (partial) to Granary. One unhealthy.
T56: Whip Granary for 2. 2 Clam and Corn
T57: Granary -> WB#4 (partial)
T58: WB#4 (explorer) -> WB#5
T59: Grow to 4 -> 2 Clam, Corn + mine
T62: Grow to 5 -> 2 Clam, Corn + 2 mine
T65: WB#5 (part explorer then net southern Clams for city #2) -> Settler
T70: Sailing -> Writing. Move one citizen from a mine to a cottage (SW of Paris).
T72: Whip Settler #2 with max overflow. Chop in (I was pre-cottaging the forest, so I just finished the cottage for the chop). Corn, 2 Clams.
T73: Settler #2 -> Galley
T74: Galley -> LH
T76: Settle Orleans. Net Clams. Citizen in Orleans on Clam nets. Start granary. Paris grows to 5 -> 2 Clam, Corn + 2 mine
T79: LH -> Settler. Paris grows to 6 with one :mad: and one :yuck:
T80: Whip Settler #3 for 3 pops.
T81: Settler #3 -> WB

Hammers went into a WB rather than a warrior and I whipped a turn sooner to avoid the :mad: and :yuck: for yet another turn. So, settler #3 was out on T81 rather than T82 and Paris has more food in the basket.
 
To be honest, we seem to have gone in quite a circle.

The PH train has not left the station... yet. I think to move this forward though, you need to give a concrete SIP test run that you want to push. You need to define how it's different than the preferred PH test run and why you think it's better.

Right now, your argument is a bit abstract and it will be difficult to move anyone from PH to SIP.

Shyuhe has already suggested that we go with the majority and make plans to settle on the PH. I've done that and provided a detailed PPP to T44 and a quick plan to T82, which closely simulated LC1 #304. From this first 44 turn PPP we can still make tweaks or change things as the game unfolds and we learn more about our surroundings. It could closely mirror most of the better PH saves, so we're not tying ourselves to one test run in this first 44 turns. It gets the game moving and it's flexible.

I'm not sure how long we want to push this settling decision out though. Are you willing to concede or are you still running SIP tests with the goal of swaying the team to a different opening?

EDIT: X-post with LC below.
 
I was under the impression that we wanted an exploring Work Boat out before building Settler 2 and that Research was the factor that we cared about the most after an early explorer.

However, now it appears that we are favouring a production-heavy approach. This fact is a real turn-about, since sacrificing production is usually required to get the other two "supposedly more important" working at a "better than average" level.
For starters, testing provides two things, imo, everything we've been talking about, PLUS an ever-increasing awareness of the scenario at hand. Testing minimizes hindsighted regrets. So if our points of view are changing, that's normal and positive.

That said, I'm afraid I wouldn't characterize what we're doing the way you do, Dhoom. :blush:

My characterization is that we're looking for an optimal balance:
1. Research
2. REX
3. Exploration
4. Production
5. Poprushing
6. Growth
7. Etc.

The first thing we always do is look at our starting traits, techs, and situation. We see a number of things:

1. Commerce/research-poor scenario, requiring coastal food resources for growth and research, thus requiring Fishing.

2. After Fishing, we get a 40% beaker bonus on Pottery. An early granary is a rare occurrence but it makes sense here, because the only improvable land tiles are the corn and hills (and roads), so we only lack Mining to occupy our worker (EDIT: plus bw for chops). Granaries and poprushing are by far the two most overpowered tools in CIV ancient era.

3. We will need Sailing to REX and for double-prod lhs. We also want the Oracle, so we're going to be teching a lot of early techs. Testing shows that the best way to increase our bpt is to REX asap. Testing also shows that each new city grows and produces commerce best when there is an immediate wb available. Thus, we have this equation:
hammers = settler+wb = growth+research​
So, contrary to what you wrote, I would say that "sacrificing production is usually required to get the other two "supposedly more important" working at a "better than average" level."

4. Testing also shows that even with closely settled cities, the maintenance grows rapidly and is a burden on our research/empire until our cities have much higher happiness caps. Hence, we want to settle the very best sites, if there are any and we want to know exactly what they are asap. So early exploration of our REX zone is of critical importance. To me, far more important than meeting other AIs, though somewhat later that rapidly becomes a high priority. So we have this equation:
hammers = wbs+galley(+warrior) = exploration​
5. PH is only about 2t behind SIP in research on T82 in our best saves, iirc. To me, that's acceptable for +100h, more and better exploration, earlier settler3+wb, less angry and more populated capital, and a faster growing empire.

Dhoom, I was the strongest supporter of SIP for some time. Research IS king. But kings need empires to thrive. I'm still looking for an SIP test that can match up with PH, both in terms of balance and in terms of empire growth.
 
With the current focus on being "how awesome" getting an early Granary up in City 2 is going to be, you would think that getting one up in a City placed 3E would also give a competitive game... the trade-off will be that we will likely delay our first Work Boat Explorer, but since we aren't choosing the save with the fastest Work Boat Explorer (a SIP save), clearly, this criterion isn't our most important selection criterion, either, and thus we might actually vote on a save that produces a late Work Boat Explorer #1.

I can try and run such a test this evening, if for no other reason to say that "we tried it, didn't like it, and were thus happier with our current decision."
Here's what's awesome:

Sailing-Pottery costs us a pile of hammers that we mostly don't gain back with the earlier settlement.
Spoiler :
Code:
         whip p6>p3     food  benefit
         ----------     ----  -------
no gran     135h        126f    9h
w/gran      135h         64f   [COLOR="blue"][B]71h[/B][/COLOR]
Pottery-Sailing costs us an earlier growing settlement that we DO catch up with by having a wb ready when the city is settled. That's what I used to call a POWER MOVE. When one move accomplishes multiple goals. Note that is also gives us more time to explore, as you yourself have often pointed out.

If you can find an SIP solution that can match up, hallelujah, I'm all for it. In fact, if you can find an SIP solution that is merely equal, including research, that'd be great.
 
@Mitchum: PPP looks good to me.

COmment: Please keep a save of T1. In fact, I'd like to see saves for the turn before, during and after each tech we research. The screenshots of the demo screen only give some data, not all. You need the live save to get all avaiable data.
 
@Mitchum: PPP looks good to me.

OK. The PPP will have been posted for 24 hours tomorrow morning (Pacific Time (GMT-8?)). Unless I hear otherwise, I plan to move the settler on T0 to the PH, end turn, and then move the Warrior to the GHill 1N. Upload screen shot. Pause for comment if anything noteworthy to the north.

Now, there was some discussion of moving the warrior to 3E of SIP. Playing the resource game, what if there is a gem or gold resource to the east? Would we consider going back to SIP/3E to get this resource?

If we move the warrior 1N, what would he have to find for us to reconsider our current plan? My guess is that most teams did this, saw nothing, and settled the PH. This is an indication that there is nothing up there (if you buy the fact that most teams moved the warrior north).

So, should we assume there is nothing N and move the warrior SE instead?
 
COmment: Please keep a save of T1. In fact, I'd like to see saves for the turn before, during and after each tech we research. The screenshots of the demo screen only give some data, not all. You need the live save to get all avaiable data.

:nono: If it's something important, it's better NOT to edit an old post. It can easily get missed. Luckily I read back through your post and caught this. ;)

PPP has been updated to include this and shyuhe's suggestion of capturing a screenshot of the F8 Victory screen each turn.
 
I think moving the warrior 1SE is better. On the very small chance that there's something game breaking in that direction, we can retreat to SIP to allow for a second city on the island. It's planning for an unlikely scenario, but worth it since our general consensus on fog gazing is that there's nothing north in the fog that would immediately benefit us (except seafood I guess).
 
Well, I'm fine with moving to PH. I tried a Settler-first (instead of a Barracks first) and was thoroughly unimpressed with the results... I got a Granary in City 2 before I got one in City 1, but we were just too far behind in production.

There might be a "grow a bit and then get an early Settler" approach that could work. However, I didn't try it out. Instead, I wanted to see how far I could push SIP with the sacrifice of having one reasonably-early Work Boat but then leveraging SIP's strength, which is using 4 fully-improved Food Resources. Why try to fit a square peg into a round hole? If we've got 4 Food Resources, we might as well use them. That meant intentionally skipping Work Boat Explorer #2.

In so doing, I twice three-pop-whipped Settlers, getting Settler 3 on turn 83. However, we're loaded with whipping unhappiness at Turn 82... 34... but that's not too bad compared to some previous runs that had 15 less on Turn 82 but needed to whip a few turns later. So, if you subtract 15, then it's more like 19 (34 - 15 = 19) but with 15 "just added" this turn. Quite comparable to some of the other games.

Still, all I could get out was 4 Work Boats and a Galley by Turn 82, as well as Settler 3 to be completed at the end of Turn 82. I couldn't get a 5th Work Boat.

In order to get that extra production, I need to settle the first Work Boat Explorer so that we can "gain back" in terms of Food and thus future production from faster growth and faster whipping... but then we'd lose out on exploration altogether, which doesn't seem like a compromise that we'd go for.

Hence, we get Work Boat Explorer #1 out on Turn 47 (matching LC's latest and favoured PH test run) but we don't get a second Work Boat explorer at all, instead just getting Galley 1 on Turn 78.

Sure, we know Writing on Turn 82, but I just haven't found a way to QUITE match the production that the PH run is giving. I suppose that I could have loaded the Worker on Galley 1 on Turn 78, then landed to Chop the western GFor on Turn 79, but I still wouldn't be able to get the Forest Chop until 5 turns later (on Turn 84), past the cut-off date. SIP does have the advantage that this Forest Chop is of more value to it than PH, but since we might use that Forest Chop for a western-settled City in a PH run, it's probably all a wash, anyway.

So, that's probably about as close as I can see my testing getting to the production of PH, while still getting out an early Work Boat Explorer... if we're getting one extra Work Boat out of PH than this run, well, I know that one extra Work Boat will help out a lot, so I guess PH is the way to go... if anything, I'm glad that I pushed so hard with SIP testing that we were able to refine PH test runs to such a fine degree. Great work and congrats on a job well done!!! :) :goodjob:


I'll include the saved games and spreadsheet from my latest SIP test run here, but then that's it for me for new test runs... I'm going to move on to trying to understand the current PH PPP and see if there's anything that we missed with it.
 

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I think moving the warrior 1SE is better. On the very small chance that there's something game breaking in that direction, we can retreat to SIP to allow for a second city on the island. It's planning for an unlikely scenario, but worth it since our general consensus on fog gazing is that there's nothing north in the fog that would immediately benefit us (except seafood I guess).
Yeah, we might as well move the Warrior 1SE. Still, if we find a Gem or a Gold, I'd probably consider pushing the Settler 1SE onto the GH, since doing so would take just as long as going back to the SIP location, but then we'd get this Gem/Gold Resource.

Honestly, though, I think that once we move to PH, that's it. We'll go with PH. Our testing doesn't really support us doing anything else and I'm not sure that the team has the patience to sit through another round of testing that tests "3E + City 2 = SIP."

So, for all intents and purposes, moving that Warrior probably doesn't matter, but sure, let's send him SE for the fun of it.

The real question, in my mind, is: do we spend 1 turn walking on the barren GH square? Every turn that our Warrior exists on that square, we reduce our chances of getting a free Forest.

In all of the test runs that I ran, I saw a Forest grow up on that GH or on the western island's GH a few times (not counting test runs with duplicate paths and thus duplicate random numbers). It's a small chance, but we slightly increase our chances of Forest Growth by not walking on that northern GH at all. At worst case, we should only move onto the square for 1 turn with the Warrior.
 
I couldn't get a 5th Work Boat.
Okay, that statement isn't entirely accurate... City 2 could have completed a 5th Work Boat, since it has 49/90 Hammers invested in a Granary as of Turn 82.

Still, if we "turned that partial Granary into a 5th Work Boat," then we'd have virtually no progress on a Granary in City 2.

Would that matter? Possibly. LC's PH run hardly has any production in a Granary but it almost has a full population point, which is relatively equivalent to almost 45 Hammers... plus the 7 Hammers invested in the Granary... that's about equal to half of a Granary... so, yeah, even if I made that partial Granary into a Work Boat, we'd still be a bit behind.
 
Don't have an opinion on warrior move. Either could potentially reveal something. As you like...

Did a couple of runs, just to get back into this and see how my initial (base hammer focus) approach works without the extra hill mine. Not among the best runs, I think, but let's post it anyway:
Spoiler :

Code:
Paris
Settle	PH	PH
Pop	5	4
Food	26/45	21/42
Current	Settler	Settler
Hammers	17/149	28/149
LH	Yes	Yes
Granary	Yes	Yes
Clams	3	2
Health	5	5
Food	+9	+6
Hammers	8	8
Comm	15	13
Whip	13	13
Rax	0	13h Galley

Orleans
Settled	T69	T69
Loc	Isl W	Isl W
Pop	1	1
Food	18/33	19/33
Current	LH	Granary
Hammers	74/90	43/90
Food	+4	+5
Hammers	1	1
Comm	5	5
Whip	0	11
		Has LH

Ex WB1	T45	T45
Ex WB2	T54	T53
Ex WB5	n/a	T78	
Turns	65	70

Galley	T67	T66
Settler#3	T85	T86
Chops	0	0

Fishing	T11	T11
Mining	T22	T22
BW	T44	T44
Sail	T61	T61
Pott	T72	T71
Wtg	224/280	256/280
Total	1134	1166
Don't know what "Explorer turns for first off-continent city" means.
Edit: In the second test, I can get Settler #3 on T82 at the expense of another 2pop whip and not finishing the 5th WB.

I'm getting a good amount of exploration and solid production in the second city, it seems. Behind on third settler, though, and seems short on capital food. Ran into some awkward bottlenecks - Sailing 1t late, worker idle here and there, etc. I'll try Pottery ahead of Sailing next...
 
Sailing 1t late
Remember that working an Unnetted Clam is still a decent early square, with 4 base inputs... 2 Food and 2 Commerce. Working that kind of a square instead of a Grassland Hills Mine or a Grassland Forest might net you a tech a bit sooner.

Some test runs even built a Worker using an Unnetted Clam over a "3 base input" square, such as 3 Food from an Unfarmed Corn or 2 Food + 1 Hammer from a Grassland Forest square... so that's probably how you'd squeeze out a bit more Commerce when you find that your test run needs it.
 
Ok, sounds like we're all set to go then? Any other thoughts/comments? Otherwise I think Mitchum is clear to start tomorrow (erm, today...).

Good point about the warrior on the grass hill. We can travel 1NW of the PH for scouting before turning back around to Paris. I don't think we need to move onto the 1N grass hill since we'll get visibility through that square via culture soon enough anyways.
 
OK. I played the first 1.5 turns.

Somehow, my game got stuck into "Flying Camera" mode. I can't undo what I saw, so here is what I saw to the east (very desolate) and the north (very scary!!).

Spoiler :
East:


North:
:lol:

And here is a screenshot of what the warrior saw after moving SE:

Spoiler :
I presume that this Fish will not change our PH start. Unfortunately, it looks like desert to the east, but we may be able to settle on a desert square to capture that fish and still have some decent tiles in the BFC.

Demo Data from T1. Whoever has the GLH is going to be kicking butt on early research...
Spoiler :

Permission requested to play forward according to the PPP, Sirs! Warrior will head to Paris (PH) next turn, to the forest at Paris-NW on T3, and then back to Paris on T4.
 
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