Merlot Mafia: Last Queen of the Amazons

((All of this is ooc, in too much hurry to post this as note paper))

Ash, you either did not understand or you are deliberately trying to mislead the population here. Perhaps you have a hidden agenda?

The point is not about the absolute hit probability. If it were, it would be easy to attain 100% accuracy: just pass until all are mafia! The point is that there is one "extra" townie who brings absolutely no advantage whatsoever to the townie side, but helps the mafia side by decreasing the odds of hitting a mafia member with guesswork alone. Thus, while you managed to post "hey, this way we are getting higher numbers" in your carefully crafted examples, the end result is worse.

For those of you, who are still in doubt, I'll explain it in watertight way.

1) The game is about townies maintaining their majority.
Once it is gone (even a tie at start of a day round), the game is lost. Mafia's ability to win majority / block with a tie (or cause both sides to lose one player, depending on Winston's mystery rule) during day leaves just the mafia to do the killings.

2) Percentages are irrelevant. The number of people making up the difference is what counts.
If you have two-princess advantage at 101v99 (50.5% majority) you are equally close to losing as you'd be at 3v1 (75% majority), as a wrong guess in both cases would give the mafia the winning position.

3) There is no way for the townies to increase their majority during a full day-night cycle.
Even if townies manage to kill a mafia member during the day, the following night mafia gets one townie.

4) If townies pass the day, their lose 1 person from their majority during the day-night cycle.
Obvious death during night is obvious.

5) If townies kill one of themselves, they lose 2 persons from their majority during the day-night cycle.
This is obvious, as well.

6) If townies kill one of the mafia, they simply maintained their majority during that cycle.
However, this is the only way for the townies to win the game. They need to get this outcome n times, where n is the number of mafia members before they lose their majority.

7) The current difference between the two sides is even (multiple of 2).
8 left. Either 5v3, 6v2, 7v1. Differences are 2, 4 and 6. All even.

Now for the important part:
8) One townie is useless.
5v3 loses its majority with one bad voting round. So does 4v3 - not any sooner!
6v2 loses its majority with two bad voting rounds. So does 5v2 - not any sooner!
7v1 loses its majority with three bad voting rounds. So does 6v1 - not any sooner!

In each and every example above, the latter alternatives are better off. They have exactly the same amount of time remaining to make the correct guesses, but they all have better chances of making those guesses.

The game in nutshell is about making enough correct guesses before making too many wrong ones. It's not about making enough correct guesses as soon as possible.

Unfortunately I have to rush off now, so I can't bash the vile faulty "math" in ash's post any, but essentially what he is doing there to deceive (!) the good townsfolk is to compare apples and oranges. And the trump card argument is nullified by the good approach of voting whoever voted first - though this time I'd simply vote ash if I were alive.

Actually, another interesting point:

The only way that Slaze's plan works - that we can narrow down who is and isn't mafia based on successive votes - is if the mafias vote didn't count during the day phase. As I mentioned, Winston clarified that this isn't the case, so Slaze's plan doesnt work.

If Slaze was under the impression that his plan would work then he would want to suggest it to seem innocent, but also protect against it so he wouldn't be found out. The only defense against it is to have an equal number of mafia voting on each of the candidates.

With that in mind it casts some suspicion on the 2 people that are voting for the other person that Slaze is not voting for.

Slaze's mistake in understanding the game rules may make this a short game. Either that or he is a guy that made an honest mistake! Either way, you answer more questions dead then alive Princess Slaze!

Tic0 said:

Ash, you either did not understand or you are deliberately trying to mislead the population here. Perhaps you have a hidden agenda?

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I admittedly don't understand your point - but you didn't counter my main point - that having 2 chances to get something (so the percentages are so similar) is better then having only 1.

Think about playing 21.

Do you have a better chance of getting an ace if you are dealt one card, or if you are dealt 2 cards?

I have no doubt that I am not long for this world. But when I go, and everyone sees a big green "innocent" beside my name, hopefully they will look back on my theories and give them more merit.

Hey Tic0 -

I took some time to really reread your post. If you were still alive I would have dismissed it, but since you are dead and innocent you have no agenda. So one of us is wrong, and if its me I'd like to know about it (since I can vote!)

I agree with all of your points about maintaining a majority. However, a majority isn't worth anything unless that majority votes. Who cares if the townies have a majority if they don't use that majority?

If I'm understanding you your idea is to wait until the last possible moment - just before the townies lose their majority - and have everyone vote then when the odds are best.

However what I am saying is that if we vote twice in the time that your way would have us vote once then we are almost twice as likely (not quite, about 3% less then twice as likely) to kill a mafia.

I don't think that inaction is the best course here as every turn we are inactive we have a dramatic drop in our chances to kill a mafia.

ash88 said:

I admittedly don't understand your point - but you didn't counter my main point - that having 2 chances to get something (so the percentages are so similar) is better then having only 1.

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But I did. You have n chances now (majority divided by 2, rounding up). Pass a day and you have n chances then (majority divided by 2, rounding up). The only thing changing you have one less wrong target.

ash88 said:

The only way that Slaze's plan works - that we can narrow down who is and isn't mafia based on successive votes - is if the mafias vote didn't count during the day phase. As I mentioned, Winston clarified that this isn't the case, so Slaze's plan doesnt work.

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True, I did believe that the mafia's vote didn't count. I guess I'll have to go back and find that Winston post and figure out what's going on here.

Didn't find it. Where did he say that all votes counted?

slaze said:

Didn't find it. Where did he say that all votes counted?

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Post number 58, page 3... this was in response to my post number 56 where I initially asked the question.

ash88 said:

Oh I see - we get to see a tally... and the mafia votes don't count? And we know who voted for everyone? ...
Am I getting this? Because now it seems too easy.

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Winston Hughes said:

That would make things rather too easy for the good guys, I think.

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So, with this in mind, Princess Slaze, was your plan to have us all vote according to your party line a carefully constructed rouse to have us in the palm of your hand, or was it to throw off suspicions of your act of MURDER!

Yeah, I guess I read it little differently. I guess it had me thinking that mafia votes would be tallied, but not in a way that showed that they didn't count. I was only trying to come up with a solution that benefits the townies, as I have also read that the townies have to kill someone, so I was only trying to manipulate that killing into some use.

I still hope for a way that doesn't rely exclusively on odds. I'm still curious about what happens with ties. So, whatever we do, lets put up a tie.

Tic0 said:

But I did. You have n chances now (majority divided by 2, rounding up). Pass a day and you have n chances then (majority divided by 2, rounding up). The only thing changing you have one less wrong target.

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You aren't understanding me. I'm not sure how to make this clearer (or whether you intentionally are making it unclear).

Yes, on day 2, after abstaining, you have a slightly better chance of choosing a mafia target. I agree.

However, overall, in relation to all turns in the game, you have roughly halfed your chance of choosing a mafia because you are now only voting once instead of twice.

What do you think gives you better odds:

1) Picking one card out of 40 trying to get 1 of 4 aces?
2) Picking 2 cards out of 50 trying to get 1 of 4 aces?

The answer is that picking 2 cards gives you a better chance of success even though there are less non-ace cards in the first option. More votes means a better chance to find the mafia.

How much better? Well - almost 100% better.

Having 1 less mafia to choose from at this point only improves the odds by 3% or something ridiculous like that. But being able to choose twice significantly increases the odds - it almost doubles them (not quite).

slaze said:

Yeah, I guess I read it little differently. I guess it had me thinking that mafia votes would be tallied, but not in a way that showed that they didn't count. I was only trying to come up with a solution that benefits the townies, as I have also read that the townies have to kill someone, so I was only trying to manipulate that killing into some use.

I still hope for a way that doesn't rely exclusively on odds. I'm still curious about what happens with ties. So, whatever we do, lets put up a tie.

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According to the rules I have read on the internet a tie means no one is killed. Granted Winston can work it out any way he wants - but it makes sense that he would follow the time tested and true rules more times then not.

I think we gain more from your death, as per my last post. So if you are truly a Townie vote for yourself and convince others to do so. It's not like you can't participate after, but you really don't lose much (except the option to vote)... and after this completely failed strategy of yours you have to admit that things are grim.

Go ahead - if your a townie - do it.

(I'm not sure if Winston allows people to vote for themselves... if he doesn't you should just abstain and convince others to vote for you).

Ok Winston hasn't responded yet to my question about clues.


To recap these are the murder scene notes:


Sat upright on her bed, Winstonia's throat had been cut, leaving her head to sag backwards, and giving her gaping neck the appearance of a huge, bloody mouth. Lying on the floor a few feet away was found the murder weapon, a vicious-looking knife of unknown origin.

Hercules90 had been savagely disembowled, and her innards spread about the bedchamber in a haphazard fashion.

A lump on her head indicated that she had first been knocked unconcious, whilst the burn marks around her wrists showed that the killer then chose to tie her up. Lying just to her side, there was found a ball of cloth which (it could be assumed) had been stuffed in her mouth to prevent her from screaming out when she regained consciousness. And lastly, sitting in the middle of a pile of intestines, there lay the murder weapon itself: a sharpened stone, with a viciously jagged edge.


Anything there?

Strange murder weapons? of unknown origin? What about that ball of cloth?

Hercules90 said:

Ok Winston hasn't responded yet to my question about clues.

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That was an oversight. Really sorry about that.

Anyhow, this is not the kind of mafia game where you can routinely expect to find clues to the identity of the mafia in the write-ups, although this is not to say that no such clues will ever be found.

ash88 said:

I'm not sure if Winston allows people to vote for themselves...

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Yes, the Princesses can vote for themselves if they wish.

unvote: Tegvtec

vote: slaze

There it is, the count is now 3 for me, 2 for Caledorn. We need one more for Caledorn.

slaze said:

unvote: Tegvtec

vote: slaze

There it is, the count is now 3 for me, 2 for Caledorn. We need one more for Caledorn.

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No no we don't want a tie. According to mafia on wikipedia a tie means no one dies. The alternative, that 2 people die, is even worse. Why is it that you are pushing for a tie Princess Slaze? We have already dispelled your "tie means we can figure it out" theory... why are you still pushing for it? Do you hope that 2 people die?

I will be very surprised if you continue to vote for yourself until the end. This is a fine gesture but you haven't voted for yourself until the vote is counted. Although if you change your vote for any reason now you have to realize that people are going to be damn suspicious of you.

Lets get a few more votes on Slaze so if he changes his vote last minute - and potentially the other mafia changes their vote - then we can still run this through!

I have no problem with putting a vote on slaze.

ash88 said:

You aren't understanding me. I'm not sure how to make this clearer (or whether you intentionally are making it unclear).

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Well, I could say the same.

I thought I had been pretty clear expressing this: You do not have any less voting-days/picks-of-cards/whichever-metaphor-you-choose if there is no lynching on one day(*. That is a fact, which I have repeated over and over. So why on earth are you and ignoring that and comparing 1 day to 2 days, despite being told several times? If it's just misunderstanding, maybe this would finally strike the home run: "Passing one day of lyching(* does not mean passing a lynch, it means postponing the lynches." If you wanted aces, instead of picking your cards on Monday and Tuesday, you'd be picking them on Tuesday and Wednesday, after someone else took away some guaranteed non-ace cards on Monday. The number of attempts does not decrease, they just come a bit later. That is the whole point here. You still get the same amount of attempts, with less chance per attempt to fail. That's now 5 more different ways of saying it. Please no more "oh but 2 > 1" as the number of lynches does not.. oh, not going to say it sixth time now

(* if there is an even number of players at start of a day.)

Instead of the apple vs orange comparison here:

ash88 said:

What do you think gives you better odds:

1) Picking one card out of 40 trying to get 1 of 4 aces?
2) Picking 2 cards out of 50 trying to get 1 of 4 aces?

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the actual question is:

What do you think gives you better odds:

1) Picking 2 cards out of 40 trying to get 1 of 4 aces?
2) Picking 2 cards out of 50 trying to get 1 of 4 aces?

Click to expand...

Now, sorry if I really haven't been able to say it in a manner that would be crystal clear, English is not my native language and I did not remember to construct the messages with the explicit goal of not leaving loopholes for accidental or "accidental" misinterpretation. These have been my 2 latest attempts, which - despite my shortcomings - should be enough for anyone wanting to understand:

You have n chances now (majority divided by 2, rounding up). Pass a day and you have n chances then (majority divided by 2, rounding up). The only thing changing you have one less wrong target.

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(Fine, I did not emphasis that the n is the same value in both cases. It is of course implied. Perhaps "Pass a day and you still have n..." would've been better. I do not understand how "The only thing changing.." could be misinterpreted by accident.)

They have exactly the same amount of time remaining to make the correct guesses, but they all have better chances of making those guesses.

The game in nutshell is about making enough correct guesses before making too many wrong ones. It's not about making enough correct guesses as soon as possible.

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(Or this, but maybe "they have exactly the same amount of time to do the lynching.." would have again been better.

Edit: As no-one else has commented on this, I must conclude less than half of the players are interested in the subject, in which case it won't work. (A majority can enforce this by threatening to vote out anyone voting on a pass day.) I don't know if its down to bad presentation (my bad, sorry) or lack of interest ("whoa, too much text, I'm not reading that!" .. um, ok thats bad presentation as well) but I will let this rest unless someone else agrees as well. Just doesn't look like anyone read and understood the point of getting rid of dead weight currently on townie team. Well, if the mafia guy(s) do, they won't be saying that any time soon.

landlubber said:

I have no problem with putting a vote on slaze.

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Gah, disregard that, I actually typed the wrong name.
Vote: Celedorn.

Tic0 said:

I thought I had been pretty clear expressing this:

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Ahh - I understand what you are saying!

I thought you were arguing a different point; I thought you were saying that waiting a day increased the odds (which I disagree with).

You are saying that we have x days left, whether we vote or not.

To that I say:

The only issue now is getting everyone to refrain from voting. This is something that would be very difficult. With 0 votes anyone (including mafia) could come in and vote at the last second... with no time left we couldn't rally to get all the votes we needed in time... likewise that person could just say something like, "oh sorry, I was confused" ... and who knows, maybe they were.

Given those difficulties I wouldn't suggest we do this "abstain for a round" thing. But if everyone else said they were on board with it I would give it a try. It's probably too late to do it this round (because who knows whether everyone who has already voted will even be back to check on the forums before the vote).

landlubber said:

Gah, disregard that, I actually typed the wrong name.
Vote: Celedorn.

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Do we get to know why?