SGOTM 15 - Unusual Suspects

A minor detail I don't want to forget: We have an extra gold resource we could gift to Hammy. And if we go to war we should put the slider down at 0% until we finish the Bolly library, which will presumably be delayed. Bolly can build an axe in 3 turns if we switch now (using overflow from the completed granary). Of course, we might want to research Hunting/Archery right away if Hammy attacks us, or if we think he will.

If we attack Japan I'd like somebody else to play; I couldn't stand to see my beautiful peacetime MM ruined.

If we are to attack Japan, someone needs to present a convincing argument that we could actually take cities without catapults.

ChrisShaffer said:

If we are to attack Japan, someone needs to present a convincing argument that we could actually take cities without catapults.

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Agreed. The only combat units we can produce at the moment are warriors and axes, and it seems fairly late for what would amount to an axe rush. Maybe we could take Osaka with a stack of axes, but I'm highly skeptical that we could take Toku's capital without siege. I'm also worried that a prolonged war would distract us from our religion/culture goals.

My vote would be to let Toku attack, blow up his stack and send 5-6 Axes to Osaka with a missionary. If there are are only two archers that should do it (but worth testing). Agree on it being unlikely to take the capital with Cats. But taking Osaka and putting Hindu gives us three things:
1. A way to settle for peace by giving him a city back.
2. A better view of his land.
3. A step in spreading Hindu should we go diplo or even get him to convert down the road.
4. A very nice city location if we keep.

(did I say 3 things?)

Agree we defend the city first.
Then go offensive? At least do some scouting?
If we can take and keep Osaka, then OK, take it.
But I think Toku has to go (eventually). So, I'm not keen on giving it back - we would just have to take it again.

Japanese city names: Kyoto > Osaka > Tokyo > Satsuma

Note, if Toku founded a city after we met him, there should be a BUFFY log entry that Tokugawa has founded Tokyo in a distant land. Whether we can see it or not. Nobody has said they saw such a notice (though maybe its there and we overlooked it). So yes, I am basing my bloodlust on the idea that Toku has only two cities and even if we only take Osaka it cuts in half his ability to cause nuisance. Also, when we had diplomatic contact with him the city names are either red or white, whether we know where they are or not. There should be no need for guesswork here on this point. (As a reminder, contact Babylonia and count how many cities they have - note that the capitol is never listed as it is not tradable).

Why do you think he has four?

In any case, I feel pretty strongly that winning wars is better than losing them (or stalemating). We can get Osaka... it will cost probably three or four dead axes. But thats pretty cheap for what it gives us (unfettered access to corn, secure border and weakling neighbor).

What to do with Osaka? I think we should take our time and think about that. We can hold it, by loading up with defenders and start making culture there. Infecting it with Hinduism is a good idea. But we could wait and hope for free spread from Xtian or Hindu holy cities (save a Xtian missionary). We have no contact with the Bhudist holy city so we cannot get spontaneous Bhudism spread. Note: One more argument for exploration. Another option is to give it back, or allow it to flip back. I'm with Deckhand on not liking that idea -- if we KNEW we wanted a religious VC I'd see the benefits, but culture is still the main VC... so keeping it makes more sense.

I think it might be a mistake to start focusing on the culture growing aspect of the game just yet. Fast Culture VC's usually start like any other game: tech to military advantage, whack a neighbor for land and developed cities and weakening the opposition. Getting more religions is usually not an issue if you are the meanest SOB on the block.

I agree that Catapults are needed for total victory. So we should take Osaka, and hold it while we tech construction (instead of CoL). We could still lose the Confu race even if we proceed with CoL plans, but with Cats we are 100% assured of gaining Bhudism. And making a safe eastern border, allowing us to focus on the western front. All's quiet on the western front, but that won't last. Who wants to have to keep two stacks?

Note, another option that nobody has mentioned is to tech alphabet, make a spy, and start a revolt in Kyoto instead of using seige. But Cats are probably more conventional and trustworthy. But a spy would be faster and alpha is more in line with other techs we want (Literature).

I'm guessing that how we handle this present opportunity/dilemma will be a difference of at least 30 turns in finish date. And that is from my truly scientific process of just pulling a number out of my backside.

kcd_swede said:

So yes, I am basing my bloodlust on the idea that Toku has only two cities and even if we only take Osaka it cuts in half his ability to cause nuisance. Also, when we had diplomatic contact with him the city names are either red or white, whether we know where they are or not. There should be no need for guesswork here on this point. (As a reminder, contact Babylonia and count how many cities they have - note that the capitol is never listed as it is not tradable). Why do you think he has four?

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Perhaps I'm confusing the real and test games. Sorry, I didn't have time to check the real game last night. Could someone pull up the T74 save, ring up Japan, and see how many cities are listed? And also note the number of cities BUFFY lists in the bottom-right of the main screen (and also the color of that number)? If not, I'll do it tonight.

I agree that Catapults are needed for total victory. So we should take Osaka, and hold it while we tech construction (instead of CoL). We could still lose the Confu race even if we proceed with CoL plans, but with Cats we are 100% assured of gaining Bhudism. And making a safe eastern border, allowing us to focus on the western front. All's quiet on the western front, but that won't last. Who wants to have to keep two stacks?

Note, another option that nobody has mentioned is to tech alphabet, make a spy, and start a revolt in Kyoto instead of using seige. But Cats are probably more conventional and trustworthy. But a spy would be faster and alpha is more in line with other techs we want (Literature).

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We need Math in order to get Construction. Construction is the same beaker cost as CoL and in my original plan (with library next in Bolly and an academy around T92) it was going to be around T95 before we finished CoL-->Math; if we're at war it'll very likely be T100 before we finish Construction, 24 turns from now. And then we'd have to build cats (4 of them?), march 'em up to Kyoto, and attack. That seems like a long time to be at war. I'd rather defend, wipe out his stack, kill a scout or two, possibly pillage a little, and hope that'll be enough to get peace. [Edit: If we get the chance, take Osaka, either to hold or to give back for peace.] Toku's "refuses to talk" setting is "long"--maybe 10 turns?? Then we have 10 turns of peace, which takes us to around T96. If we stick with CoL-->Math, at that point we can bulb the Prophet (from Bolly on T92) for Civil Service and revolt to Bureau. It'll likely take another 10 turns to research Construction, so that's around T105. Not much later than going straight for it, and in the meantime we'll be teching in relative peace, growing our cities, be running Bureau, and won't have lost any units at a 3:1 ratio.

There are a lot of assumptions in there, Hammy is a big wildcard, and we need to get a solid answer on the number of Japanese cities. But I'd rather play defense if we have wars on two fronts, and try to end either/both as quickly as possible. Buying time lets us build up our tech lead and make warfare easier. And if we are fighting on two fronts we'll likely need to tech Hunting and Archery so our axes aren't chewed up by Babylonian bowmen, which will delay Construction even more.

I think that getting CoL by T87 (required to get a Delhi Great Sci before the Bolly Prophet) is no longer feasible, so the Bolly library should wait for an axe (or more). Keep research at 0% to build up gold--it'll be more useful when we have a library and is our emergency reserve for upgrading a warrior to an axe. My PPP called for 0% until T80 anyway. Switch Drona to an axe, work a forest, and then whip it next turn. Switch Bolly to an axe, which will complete in 3 turns (or 2 if we whip next turn). Move our northern Woody2 axe in to the forest to scope out Hammy and fogbust. Hunker down in Drona and let Toku attack. Play to the beginning of T80, stopping if Hammy DoWs us or Toku does something bad/unexpected.

The Alphabet/spy gambit is interesting, but how many espi points do we need to bring down Kyoto's walls? I'd still want cats for collateral damage even so. BTW, I split espi pts between Toku and Hammy starting T74. Should I should put them all (4) back on Toku?

If things look good at T79--the threat from Hammy is controllable, Toku has splatted his stack against us, no losses on our part--we can think about marching into Japan. We should have 3 axes in Drona and another on the way from Bolly by then. Maybe we can take Osaka. Maybe we can park a couple axes on forest hills next to Kyoto and keep him bottled up while we pillage him back to the Stone Age. We want to keep research at 0% anyway (unless Hammy DoWs us and we want archers) so I think we can proceed for a few more turns before committing to anything... drastic.

I've looked through my notes more closely and would like to stick with OrgRel and the library in Bolly, then 2-whip it on T78. On T79, if we want to pursue an offensive war we revolt to Theocracy and put Bolly's large overflow into an axe, so that it should be done on T80. We could revolt earlier than that (T78--that' my recollection and what kcd said) but we'd lose about 16 hammers toward the library and I'm assuming we won't need another axe that urgently. With 5 XPs we can get a Woody2 axe--very handy if Toku hasn't chopped all his forests yet.

Yes, put all espionage focus on Toku.

I prefer sticking to the course, fighting a defensive war without sacrificing the culture/AP options too much, and waiting until we have siege weapons to wipe out Toku and Hammuragawa.

p.s. Xc suggested plan looks fine to me, green.

Just checked the real game save from T74. Japan has 4 cities and Babylon has 3.

I like moving to the Math/Constr path suggested by several and taking out Toku if feasible. Now is the time, those archers will turn into Longbows down the road. I do think that Babylon is likely to declare. Not much to prevent. Need some northern defense. Added benefit of Math is chop bonus.

In my experience taking cities without cats is a triple or nothing prop - if it DOESN'T work, you're dead in water, with highly promoted archers to boot.

Protective?

Don't even think about it.

Quite often in my games I dare my enemies to attack the cities, and die against their defenses - rather than fight messy field battles.

ChrisShaffer said:

Yes, put all espionage focus on Toku.

I prefer sticking to the course, fighting a defensive war without sacrificing the culture/AP options too much, and waiting until we have siege weapons to wipe out Toku and Hammuragawa.

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This is my feeling as well. Especially, as vra379971 points out, Toku is Protective.

p.s. Xc suggested plan looks fine to me, green.

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Looks good to me too. Green to play more turns and see what happens.

OK, I am convinced by Xcal's argument. I'm green for the defensive war and only going after Osaka if opportunity arises. Also OK with continueing on CS-bulbing path.

Just remember that you promised we would have cats not much later by this path than the direct one. t105 I think it was. I'm holding you to that.

...and when we get mace/cat ability, don't even try to hold me back.

Yes, Construction by ~T105. But recall that I said if we had to divert to Hunting/Archery that would be delayed. Which would also be the case even if we did Math/Construction.

I'll try to play to T79 or 80 tonight.

• All espi back on Japan. 0% research.
• Revolt to Theoc ASAP (2 turns?).
• Bolly start library, 2-whip on 78, then start axe.
• Drona add forest to get 5hpt, switch to axe, 1-whip on T77, then finish granary.
• Delhi continue granary (finished T77), then start axe.
• Bombay just finished axe--start another. Send axe N to back up our Woody2 axe.
• Vijay grow, continue granary. (Too early to worry yet but we could switch to walls (+100 stone bonus) and prepare to whip if we can't hold off Hammy.)
• Fortify in Drona. Leave 5XP axe unpromoted. Give other axe C1 when/if Toku is at the city gates.
• Check Drona tile usage every turn--corn may become available again.
• Attack if Toku crosses the river--we can't let him get onto gold hill.
• Kill scout(s) if convenient.
• FW4 (by Drona) chops forest. Others farm wheat, build cottages.
• Shall I pause if Hammy DoWs? Or is that a foregone conclusion? I propose only pausing if our Wood2 axe sees a stack.

Pause only if we see a Hamuragawa stack, not for DoW.

One last thing: Shall I gift our extra gold to Hammy, in the forlorn hope of improving our relations? I know that if he's decided to DoW us it will make no difference, but better late than never to get started on making friends. Of course, we could also hope to meet somebody else with our workboat and trade for a resource in return.

Good lord, no! Save it for upgrades.

ChrisShaffer said:

Good lord, no! Save it for upgrades.

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Ambiguity! I meant our extra gold resource--we have 2, one by Drona, and one by Bombay. I'll probably wait to see whether or not our work boat finds a dead end going north. If he does, it'll probably take close to 10 turns to turn around and find new land. Since I'm only playing a few turns, let's just assume I won't do any trades without stopping to consult the team. (Hmm, I don't think it's even possible to gift coin-gold without donor or recipient having Currency.)

Oh, I see. Sure, gift him the gold resource. Sounds like a good idea to me.