I have put my explanation why the horse city with 2 FP's overlap is our best bet right now. If it doesn't convincing enough, fair.
You do realize that the SW city (1S of lake) is 5 tiles away, meaning 10T for roading to the place. Another 4T for improving pigs.
Needs monument (depending on food) will probably grow to size 2 in 7T, whips monument, pops borders at +10 (17T after settling) at which point you need another 4T for improving gold (we will suppose that the place will be already preroaded), meaning we won't get from this place any kind of commerce and happiness until 21!! turns after settling the spot?
meaning if you go with settler now, whip it in 3T (+- could be maybe 4) + 5T going in the place making the place effective in awesome 29(30) turns? that means 3 turnsets from now on we will wait and watch the city to make any kind of impact!
The clams will come at first border pop too.
And no the city doesnt secure our left wing, if anything it does it actually WEAKENS our position from strategic point of view, due to logistics (5T for reinforcements).
On the other hand MY horsey city is 3 tiles away from capital, river connected (no roading needed!!), have preimproved cottages around capital to work good tiles from get go (you did make the cottages, right?) and is productive right after settling (works cottages which are 3F3C that's 6 yield tiles and eventually gets better!).
From strategic point of view is easily defendable and just makes our empire more compact.
Let me try to compare in more detail the settlement of the dot 1NW of the eastern horses - the Troyan Horse City, THC - with the settlement of the dot 1S of the lake below Nottingham in our SW - the Evil Gold City, EGC.
Before that, let me say that, roughly, we need something like 24-25 turns to get EGC functional with regard to it being roaded to the capital - and BoS at least - with a pasture and a gold mine all working. Granted, 5 turns earlier is not that big deal, and in deed, it's more the effect AFTER that, that makes the difference.
Scenario:
Comparison of the $-effect of settling THC vs EGC
Assumptions:
roading 1 tile takes 2 turns,
cottage on fp takes 6 turns,
cottage on plains takes 5 turns,
cottage on grass takes 4 turns
pasture takes 4 turns, mine takes 4 turns
start is at one and the same moment with 1 settler and 1 worker available in Snarl
available - already built - cottages on THC FPs are deemed inexistant, as they are already used by Snarl, and we compare what are the consequences of settling two different dots,
we compare gold / income outcomes only (not food and/or hammers) and aim at max gold production
Possible turnset (there might be inaccuracies, but this should give the rough picture of what we are talking about:
t1: settlers start running to the dots, THC worker starts cotage #1, EGC worker makes haste toward the pigs
t2: THC founded
t4: EGC founded, EGC worker starts pasturing pigs, EGC starts monastery at 2h+1f10
t6: THC cottage #1 finished, THC worker moves onto 2nd FP and starts 2nd cottage
t7: EGC pigs pastured
t8: EGC worker starts road from pig pasture to Snarl's cow pasture (3 tiles, 6 turns)
t10: EGC becomes L2 (4*1f+3*6f=22f) and whips monument (not sure this is possible at that exactly moment, however)
t12: THC cottage #2 finished, worker starts cottage #3 on plain by river
t13: EGC worker finishes hooking up the EGC with Snarl & BoS
t14: EGC worker moves onto tile 1W of EGC
t15: EGC worker starts roading the Gold mine (2 tiles, 4 or 5 turns)
t16: THC cottage #1 becomes hamlet
t17: THC worker finishes cottage #3
t18: THC worker moves onto grass and starts cottage #4
t20: EGC pops culture, worker starts mining gold
t21: THC worker finishes cottage #4
t22: THC cottage#2 upgrades to village
t23: EGC worker finishes mine
So, on, or about t24 we have: 2 villages and two cottages functioning in THC, and a pasture and a gold mine functioning in EGC (please, note that the idea was also to buid first a monument in THC, so no big differences arise from buildings in the cities.
Now, what is the situation around t24:
THC produces (w/o center) 2*4+2*3 gold, or 14 gold
EGC produces 8 gold.
Besides, the THC has already produced (w/o center, a couple of $ could be added due to later start of EGC) about 120 gold.
That's a speed-up, and a very cosiderable amount to invest, of course.
And THC is currently producing more gold and will increase the production of gold from running cottages.
However, the LUX resource allows for an additional cottage in min three of our cities: Snarl, BoS and EGC. Ina couple of turns, this means 3*3 - 9 gold. This already is AN ADDITIONAL COTTAGE from that moment on. Road the Frown, you get one more ADDITIONAL COTTAGE, settle a 5th city, or conquer a city, and you get an additional cottage in the balance of EGC vs THC.
Note: with only one additional cottage, the next 40 turns even up the balance. With two, it's the next 20 turns or so.
Now, THC has almost dried up its potential of development, read: more cottages. Even if these are to be set up, they will just REPLACE the 2FPs that will go to the Snarl, and at a lower $-productivity at that!
While with getting fishing - some time later on - and without any investment of worker time we get two $3g additions, add the additional cottages by EGC, and the tiles with only $3 on the coast, and the balance - in the longer-term is in no way clearly in favor of THC ( I have again to emphasize that THC is restricted to a 4-6 L growth as it has no other food resource in its fat cross, while EGC is restricted by and large by its hap and health cap only.)
Even getting inflation and scaling into the picture, there seems to be no doubt that the comparison is hardly in favor of THC in the long-term, not so much as a result of the overlap, as a result of a limited food supply AND an overlap.
As I have already stated in my previous posts, situations change. A potential change might be in THC favor...when? If we gain victory by let's say 1400 AD. If we get another gold in some of our mines (very doubtful), or we get gold mine conquering Korea, America and/or India - again, by 1400 AD, approx. If we lose EGC to the Brits or whomever. And that's about it.
I choose the EGC. What about you?