US Midterms - Predictions and Aftereffects

Tani Coyote

Son of Huehuecoyotl
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I didn't see a thread for it, so...! (I mean c'mon, three days away)

Where do you think the election is headed? Will it be a sweeping victory for Republicans, a minor victory, or possibly even a Democratic victory?

And, what effect will this have on the nation as a whole?

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I predict a sizable - but not sweeping - Republican victory in the House based on polls. My greatest concern would be the effect of people being so assured of Republican gains they stay at home, thus helping throw seats to the Democrats.

With the Senate, I'm not so sure. It's a lot more stable isn't it? There may be Republican gains here, but I wouldn't count on it as much. Though some go so far as to predict a Republican net gain of 8, leaving the Democrats with 51 seats.

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As for after effects, I imagine a sizable Republican victory would force Obama to quickly push through as much as possible, as he'd be handicapped come January. Long-term, we'd probably see the deficit get even worse as Republicans probably wouldn't agree to raising taxes(but as usual, refuse to cut spending enough).

Potentially, Obama could be so handicapped that he'd be seen as ineffective come 2012, but then again, did Clinton not have a similar situation?

As a question, does anyone think any particular result would influence the stock market? People drool over tax cuts or at least avoiding tax raises, so Republicans winning could possibly stimulate it for a bit, right? (Even as reckless as their tax policy is)
 
I predict a vast sweeping Republican victory, for both Republicans and Tea Partiers, in which the aftereffects include the economy's total collapse, and a Police State, due to Typical Republican Shenanigans(tm).
 
What everybody else is saying. GOP/Tea Party take house, make gains but still minority in senate.
In my cynical moments I sort of hope they take house and senate by storm, pass through all their legislation, and watch as the country starts to suck. Then whenever anyone brings up 'lower taxes, less government' cry, we can point to this time period and say "No. It fails."
 
In my cynical moments I sort of hope they take house and senate by storm, pass through all their legislation, and watch as the country starts to suck. Then whenever anyone brings up 'lower taxes, less government' cry, we can point to this time period and say "No. It fails."

Which wpuld be different from now in what way exactly?
 
Because currently we haven't tried the 'lower taxes, small government thing' really in a case where we don't have to ourspend the commies.
 
Republicans get congress?
Senate gets more republicany.

Obama gains credit for any economic recovery, republicans get the blame for economic stagnation for being the fresh incumbents.
 
What everybody else is saying. GOP/Tea Party take house, make gains but still minority in senate.
In my cynical moments I sort of hope they take house and senate by storm, pass through all their legislation, and watch as the country starts to suck. Then whenever anyone brings up 'lower taxes, less government' cry, we can point to this time period and say "No. It fails."
Already happened under Bush, the democrats just suck at pointing that out in an effective manner.
 
Because currently we haven't tried the 'lower taxes, small government thing' really in a case where we don't have to ourspend the commies.
Well, Bush claimed to do that. If want to critizise that he didn't actually you won't have any better result with the new class of Republicans. You don't really think, they would cut defense, or Medicare.
They'd repeal Obamas healthcare bill if they could (which they can't) and make some minor cuts in Medicaid and Social Security in a way that fits their ideology.
Neither of both would lead to significantly smaller spending.
So effectively they would "succeed" to be "fiscal conservative" the same way Bush did.
 
Nah. Bush actualy did expand the government so he is derided for that. Basicaly I'm giving the GOP a three chances and you are out.
Reagan failed. Bush II failed, and the GOP will fail again.
 
I predict that nothing will really change and that I will continue to not really care.
 
John Boehner (sp?) will have to find a way to wrangle the Tea Party Republicans who get elected to the House to make sure Government functions. If the House grinds to a halt, then the Republicans will get the blame and it will strengthen Obama's rhetoric for 2012.
 
Nah. Bush actualy did expand the government so he is derided for that.
I know. So will Boehner and so would Palin.
Basicaly I'm giving the GOP a three chances and you are out.
Reagan failed. Bush II failed, and the GOP will fail again.
Fool me thrice... ?
 
The GOP will take the House, but it'll be a major upset to take the Senate.

The effect on the stock market will be hard to isolate because a lot of people are already placing their bets--some are hoping gridlock will rein in the out of control government and are buying, while others are getting out in case the middle class and working class get slammed by a tax increase in 2011.

How the divided government plays out will depend on how Boehnhead handles being Speaker. If he's smart (a VERY big if) he'll pass a healthcare bill that repeals the individual mandate and expands HSAs and mutual aid societies, and cut both taxes and spending (including GOP toys like the war on drugs).

If he's stupid he'll have congressional hearings on the birth certificate, pass a bill allowing health insurance across state lines (which would strengthen the interstate commerce argument for constitutionality of Obamacare), and attack popular government programs that all happen to be liberal favorites.
 
If they cut taxes, then no matter what other actions are taken the deficit goes up. It's not possible in this situation to cut spending enough to reduce the deficit without tax increases.
 
How the divided government plays out will depend on how Boehnhead handles being Speaker. If he's smart (a VERY big if) he'll pass a healthcare bill that repeals the individual mandate and expands HSAs and mutual aid societies, and cut both taxes and spending (including GOP toys like the war on drugs).

Er, that would just be vetoed.
 
I can only hope and pray that Dems keep the majority in both the house and senate. Though it would be nice if that majority grew by a lot. We must eliminate the Republican party and especially that insidious entity known as the "tea party"
 
In my cynical moments I sort of hope they take house and senate by storm, pass through all their legislation, and watch as the country starts to suck. Then whenever anyone brings up 'lower taxes, less government' cry, we can point to this time period and say "No. It fails."

I don't think Americans will tire of that rhetoric for a looooong time. Many seem quite shortsighted regardless of which politicians they're electing.

For example - everyone hates Congress but loves their Congressman.

John Boehner (sp?) will have to find a way to wrangle the Tea Party Republicans who get elected to the House to make sure Government functions. If the House grinds to a halt, then the Republicans will get the blame and it will strengthen Obama's rhetoric for 2012.

Sounds about right.

I can only hope and pray that Dems keep the majority in both the house and senate. Though it would be nice if that majority grew by a lot. We must eliminate the Republican party and especially that insidious entity known as the "tea party"

You are certainly a very interesting person with very interesting views. You want to strengthen the military yet support more and more Democratic government. :p

Also, elimination is next to impossible. A two-party state is the bare minimum in anything apart from dictatorship, due to polarisation - those who want to keep the status quo versus those who want sweeping change.

Never mind that a one-party government, I imagine, wouldn't be some utopian ideal. Indeed, it means they're more focused on hurting us than hurting eachother!
 
John Boehner (sp?) will have to find a way to wrangle the Tea Party Republicans who get elected to the House to make sure Government functions. If the House grinds to a halt, then the Republicans will get the blame and it will strengthen Obama's rhetoric for 2012.
Uhm, yeah, not going to happen. The talk about government shutdown is only getting more support within the GOP and the leadership has already made it clear that they will not compromise on anything.

The central message of conservatism is that government doesn't work and that we need to elect them so they can prove it.
 
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