SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

Sharp thinking Mitchum. I tested this and it's correct. So it's not exactly a bug, but it is a bummer, but good to know for the future. We only want to "design" failed gold in cities after the one completing the wonder. Easiest way to do that is to build them in Moscow.

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So we only get the failure gold next turn because program checks in the order the cities were founded/captured for failed wonder builds. But I assume we will get it right?

thanks LC it was a complicated turn set. With the level of detail notes on each city each turn, checklists were necessary for me to come close to the plan. And test game practice let me see the flaws in my unit movement strategy.

Rooservelt is currently pleased with us. We could ask him to gift us 150 gold.

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How often does this work? I almost never take advantage of this. This would be really nice of him.

I may have forgotten to check our resource deals near the end of my turnset. Might be a gold or 2 our there for us.

So is Gandhi gunning for Churchill? He can't be gunning for Rosey right?

You think Rosey will declare on Mao? Mao was in Vassalage for awhile (building 5 xp protective longbows )

I'm going back to sleep now

edit: if we can pull off LC's plan that would be impressive, but I don't envy the guy who has to take down Mao to 3 cities on the prayer that Rosey jumps in (although attacking him would make Rosey's attack more likely... If we can kill units faster than he can make them) But another AI taking out a very likely castled protective AI is a lot to ask.

edit#2: I was wondering about gold from overflow. Did they take this out of the game? So if you super overflow a city's hammers it maxes out at the city base production or the unit/building cost. Overflow beyond that used to be converted to gold but not anymore? So during a GA would some of Moscows hammers go to waste if we built cheap units?

edit#3:

T164 Our ships sail! (1@pike, 2@5/2XP maces, 2@5/2XP cats, 1@5/2XP treb)

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Maybe one of those can be forestII (love those C1 Medic1 ForestIII units) even a forestIII unit would be worth risking a fight at not great odds for.

okay sleep now

@Mitchum,
Seems you're back home now. Can you take this TS?

Interesting point on the F1 order of cities. I've always wondered about this, since it doesn't seem consistent.

bcool said:

How often does this work? I almost never take advantage of this. This would be really nice of him.

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Silu was calculating this last game. I'll try to see if he gave us a formula or just posted results.

bcool said:

edit#2: I was wondering about gold from overflow. Did they take this out of the game? So if you super overflow a city's hammers it maxes out at the city base production or the unit/building cost. Overflow beyond that used to be converted to gold but not anymore? So during a GA would some of Moscows hammers go to waste if we built cheap units?

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I was wondering the same thing. We could just run more scientists beyond a unit per turn. Or run some extra food, then starve a bit on scientists even.

Oh, yeah... bcool!

Found Silu's beg post, but there's no formula. It's based on TurnsKnown, attitude, previous beg timing and power ratio.

What do we wanna do about Churchill? I don't really want him taking Marseilles, as it would be a PITA later. He wants CS+Philo, but presumably we could sub in Machinery for Philo or something. He'll be getting CS, Machinery and Paper soon anyway, and is unlikely to have anything good for trade...

This turnset is quite complex, as LC stated. Don't envy you, Mitchum. It would be great if we could work out our GA timing to include a State Prop switch.

I'm still out of commission with zero access to the game until Monday. I've been following the exciting action on my phone! I'd like to swap again...

Search the Duck's thread regarding gold begging. IIRC, they did have a guideline in the last SGOTM for how much to beg and how often.

Ok, swap it is...

ROSTER UPDATE

LowtherCastle Played T48-57 T115-135 UP
Mitchum Played T0-27 T90-96 ON DECK
mdy Played T57-75 T135-140
babybluepants Played T27-40 T75-90 T140-152
bcool Played T40-48 T96-115 T152-164 JUST PLAYED
shyuhe M.I.A.
ZPV M.I.A.
mystyfly M.I.A.
Silu lurking
Soirana erasing

Got it!

Found this. Thx, Mitchum.

dingding said:

About begging:

Formule is T(n) = (M + 50) * L * (Ph + 100)/ (Pa + 100) - T(n-1).

T(n) = Value of the transaction of number (n). 1Gold = 2T if not in financial difficulty
M = Number of turns since the encounter of the 2 players
L = 2 if a land target
Ph = Our military evaluation (See info graph, Soldier. 20000 = 20 Ph)
Pa = AI's military evaluation

Financial Difficulty: if (1 + beakers output + golds output - total cost)/(1 + beakers output + golds output) < 40%.

Edit:
I don't have the time to verify. I don't think we are not in financial difficulty. Met Zara for 120+turns. Considering our Ph is 42 = 0.6 x Pa, Pa = 70. Theoretically we can beg 130-140 gold from Zara.

Try to find some time to check the plan.

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Turns = 164
Power = approx. 1-1.2? (We're 50k above average, which is brought up by Stalin, I think, and Roos is in war mode. Churchill would be the highest of the rest, I imagine)
L = 1 (not LT)
I don't think they're ever in financial difficulty - that's what Silu's said before, IIRC.

EDIT
I read that as circa 100g, but it's very imprecise due to power. Correct?

Edit2:
This looks slightly different:

Silu said:

Begging mechanics for non-vassal deals:

Maximum amount that is accepted is

(TURNS_KNOWN + 50) * 2 * (OUR_POWER / THEIR_POWER), further multiplied by 3 if that AI is our land target.

Note that this remembers earlier gifts granted, so if this formula gives a value of 1000, and we already have begged 700 during the game, the max gift value granted is only 300. Again, the value of gold is GOLD*2, or GOLD*3 if the AI is in financial trouble. Beakers are approx BEAKERS*1.5.

Also it's very important to note that the beg is refused outright if they haven't forgot all the former begs (successful and unsuccessful). AIs have a 5% chance of forgetting one beg each turn. So, the optimal begging rotation regarding this is a somewhat complicated optimization problem. Once upon a time I did simulations to find out the best beg interval regarding just this forgetting mechanic, results are here.

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The first *2 is missing from dingding's formula, and LT is *3...
That would give us double.

Edit3:
If no one's demanded anything from Roos yet, I think we may as well beg for the 150g. What do you guys think?

Test game updated with units (only significant differences are +13 hammers in bananas +2 hammers in Pigs--I refuse to fix that as I have done too much world building since the turn I would need to fix it from )

Gave DeG back Marseilles approximated units for DeG and Churchill there but didn't bother with xp, popped Orleans borders like in real game.

If someone wants to fix Bananas (attached older test game...)

I officially don't have the test game now.

PPP T164-T178

General idea: Run 1st golden age while conducting Mao Campaign. Set up a Nationalism then Communism theft before GA is done. Slingshot Biology. Pop 2 GSes and 1GSpy.

Research(binary): Liberalism(partial)-PP(GS+)-Nationalism-Chemistry-SciMeth(2GS+)-Lib(1t)-Biology(slingshot)-Communism(EPs).

Espionage points:
T164 switch to de Gaulle
T171 Slider at 100% espionage
T172 switch to Mao
~T174 Slider at 100% espionage

Golden Age: T167 after any poprushing
Civic changes:
T167 Pacifism+Caste System after golden age begins
T172 Nationhood

Cities
Moscow: trebs
Fish: settler(2pop)-musket-spy-settler
Siberia: spy
Pigs: market work: food+spy+6sci
GP Farm: archer-spy work: food+spy+7sci
Cuba: library(1pop)-spy forge
Bahamas: archer-archer-settler work: food+hammers+spy+2merchants
Bermuda: forge-library-Confucian monastery
Rheims: forge
Bananas: galley(2pop)-galley(2pop)-forge
Paris: galley(1pop)-galley(pop)-Buddhist monastery
Kamchatka: granary(2pop T164)-lh(1t)-lib(chop)-lh(1pop)-ch
Orleans: granary(1pop)-forge
bcool Island: granary
Shanghai: Intel Agency

Mao Campaign
T164 Our ships sail! (1@pike, 2@5/2XP maces, 2@5/2XP cats, 1@5/2XP treb)
T165 DoW Mao
T166 pinchers land, SoD crosses border
T167 bombard, SoD approaches
T168 bombard, suicide trebs, capture Shanghai
T169 pinchers move to Beijing-NE, healthy units follow behind
T170 pinchers move to Beijing-N, while new escort arrives at Beij-NE, bombard; damaged units enter Shanghai
T171 bombard, pincher escorts attempt to secure hill at Beijing-NW, others block Beijing-N entrance
T172 Capture Beijing if manpower available (has Scotland Yard now!!!)
T173 continue as possible, probably toward Guangzhou, possibly toward Hangzhou to empty Guangzhou
...
T177(or sooner) Roosy captures Xian
T177 Capture Guangzhou

Marseilles
T164 send two wkrs to road Marseilles-SSW; Rheims axe moves 2E
T165 DoW dG, capture wkr at Marseilles-SE
T166 monitor Marseilles situation

I prefer to let Churchill continue, in hopes he'll suicide much of his SoD. I don't like Churchill having such a big SoD near us. We capture Marseilles, if possible, if not, so be it.

Paris
Will be protected by the CII axe from Orleans SW. Chariot will join Mao Campaign in case road pillaging proves necessary.

Moscow-2S1SE
T166-67 Pre-scrub with 2 wkrs
Settle on T167 w/spy+confu
T172 Gift to dG, steal Nationalism

Some worker moves
road/scrub/fort wines
scrub/workshop Cuba
scrub next to forests
fort at Orleans-SW
finish Paris workshop

Other moves
Settle bcool's Island
T167 Settle Moscow-2S1SE
T167 Spy rides galley into Moscow-2S1SE (stationary 1t sooner
Confu Miss goes to Moscow-2S1SE
T172 Second spy galleys into Moscow-2S1SE
Monitor AI tech advances, especially Education and Optics

Trade deals
gpt as available
beg for 100g from Roosy
engineering to Gandhi for Compass+Drama+gold on T168?
Don't trade for feudalism while we're still building archer garrisons
cancel iron to Churchill. He had his chance to build some swords...

Stop points
Shtf
War troubles
Unexpected events

bcool said:

So we only get the failure gold next turn because program checks in the order the cities were founded/captured for failed wonder builds. But I assume we will get it right?

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Nope. Gone with the wind, if I'm not mistaken. I think it works like this: CIV cycles through our cities, A, B, C.... City C completes a wonder. CIty D had a partial build, so CIV cancels that and gives us gold.... Next turn, CIV sets up cities. Now the wonder has been built, that build is not longer recognized for any of the cities. Any partial build hammers attached to it for Cities A and B vanishes into thin air.

bcool said:

So is Gandhi gunning for Churchill? He can't be gunning for Rosey right?

You think Rosey will declare on Mao? Mao was in Vassalage for awhile (building 5 xp protective longbows )

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Gandhi is most likely to DoW Mao, if anyone. klarius once said he won't actually DoW till he has his attack force at the border, so this would be a naval attack force. That might not happen in the allotted time for hiw WHEOOHRN.

Roosy is also most likely to DoW Mao. I think he's planning a major campaign and there's no reason to believe he won't succeed in accumulating the required units in time. Xian has walls but is on flatland. If Roosy DoWs him, after we're at war with Mao I'll immediately recommend to Roosy that he target Xian and we'll see what happens. I'm a little more concerned that Roosy beats us to Guangzhou, but that's really no biggie because that just means we'll get Communism all the easier and that's the real short-term goal here.

ambitious

Might want another galley for worker/missionary/etc transport from Mainland and btwn islands, especially my island

Does cuba need a forge?
(Probably needs a worker to clear and workshop the plains, see above comment)

Probably doesn't make sense to build the Forbidden Palace before communism (but might want to think about where it should go)

I was thinking about the National Park too, best place might be Siberia (in which case we should clear fallout on the off chance the forests there would spread.) (Call it lumberjack regret )

Worker minor goals
clear road and fort wine (since with MoM siberia should pop borders in ~10 turns)

Where would we build intel agencies once we get communism?

Edit: What are the settlers for?
City for Mao stealing?
Are we settling Hammer city?
Or are the settlers for the gift chain?
or settling other cites on bcool's island?

babybluepants said:

Found this. Thx, Mitchum.

Turns = 164
Power = approx. 1-1.2? (We're 50k above average, which is brought up by Stalin, I think, and Roos is in war mode. Churchill would be the highest of the rest, I imagine)
L = 1 (not LT)
I don't think they're ever in financial difficulty - that's what Silu's said before, IIRC.

EDIT
I read that as circa 100g, but it's very imprecise due to power. Correct?

Edit2:
This looks slightly different:

The first *2 is missing from dingding's formula, and LT is *3...
That would give us double.

Edit3:
If no one's demanded anything from Roos yet, I think we may as well beg for the 150g. What do you guys think?

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I tried testing this, using bcool's test save. Roosy is the AI with 340 power, which I verified by giving him a grenadier, which took the top power to 352. Our power is 297, in the test save. I gave Roosy 300g and he will give us 120g, but not 130g. According to the two formulas, I get this:

ding: (214*397/440)/2 = 96
Silu: (214*2*297/340)/2 = 186

So they're both off somehow.

Now, I'm assuming Roosy also has the top power in our real save, which is 473, ours is 382. So if we use that and the 120g, we get:

120g*(382/473)/(297/340) = 110g

So I'd be willing to risk going for 100g. What do you think of that?

Why would Roos have the top power? Churchill's been building up much longer, hasn't he?

Edit: Based on everything, I'd say that 100g seems like it should be safe enough. Should we just do that?

Edit: no time to study PPP right now, comments later...

Revolting to state property in the same golden age is a very ambitous plan, and could easily fail, however it looks like we will be unlikely to lose anything important if we try so I think we should go for it.

engineering to Gandhi for Compass+Drama+gold on T168?

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Unfortunately Gandhi won't trade us boh drame and feudalism for engineering unless we throw in education as well. He will trade us feudalism + 55 gold for engineering. I think we should make this trade.

Does cuba need a forge?

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A forge should be worthwhile eventually, though it won't have any benefit in the short term. Maybe we should build wealth here instead.

I was thinking about the National Park too, best place might be Siberia

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It looks like there might be a site with more forests on the island to the SE.

LowtherCastle said:

Marseilles
T164 send two wkrs to road Marseilles-SSW; Rheims axe moves 2E
T165 DoW dG, capture wkr at Marseilles-SE
T166 monitor Marseilles situation

I prefer to let Churchill continue, in hopes he'll suicide much of his SoD. I don't like Churchill having such a big SoD near us. We capture Marseilles, if possible, if not, so be it.

Click to expand...

Could we perhaps pinch Marseilles with a couple of units when Churchill suicides? I'd try to have something in position. Depends on how it develops, I guess.

engineering to Gandhi for Compass+Drama+gold on T168?

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That reminds me, don't GS bulb Optics instead of PP or Chemistry if it is availiable?

It looks like there might be a site with more forests on the island to the SE.

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Only one more forest in the SE, but Siberia has a few place where a forest could grow (long term we would forest preserve the furs and deer)
And Siberia is an established city that could build it in a reasonable amount of time.

Hey, just played the next turn in the test game and I got the failure gold on Moai

Asking for 100g sounds okay to me.

bcool said:

Probably doesn't make sense to build the Forbidden Palace before communism (but might want to think about where it should go)

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Here are a couple of goes I made at it a while back. You guys might see it completely differently. Dotmapping isn't my strong point sometimes.