SGOTM 14 - Kakumeika

I'm pretty skeptical that allowing for a second turn attacking the wizard is useful. If we use all 9 units and don't kill the wizard, then at most we'll have 3 more units to attack a promotion-healed wizard, and our attacking units might not have full health. We won't have any follow-up units. Our airships won't be able to help. If we were to lose about 5 knights attacking the wizard, who has ducked the longbows we'd be down to about a 50% chance of killing him that turn. Would we ever stop attacking, wait for the wizard to heal, and hope our first attacker kills him first time next turn?

The value of a T187 attack on the wizard is that we know the result before we vote on T188. If we plan a T188 attack on the wizard and vote at the start of T188 assuming success, then the window for cuirassier upgrades is surely one turn wider (raising our Pk from 97% for 9 C2-amphibious knights to nearly certain), and we get one more knight from Isengard in the Eastern fray. The worst case is that we fail to kill the wizard and win our previously-committed UN vote and come last in the SGOTM. The best case is that that extra knight allows us to capture one more necessary city for winning the vote.
 
The mechanics of bombarding down castles and walls are kind of strange too.



A city with no walls or castles has 0% bombard damage reduction.
A treb can bombard a city 16% a turn, so it can knock down culture defense from full to zero in 6 turns.

So if a city defense from culture is 40%, it will fall about 6% each bombardment.
If a city defense from culture is 60%, it will fall about 9% each bombardment.
In either case, the defense will be near 0% after 6 bombardments.

If a treb has the accuracy promotion which adds 8% bombard damage, it bombards 24% a turn. That means defenses will go to 0% after 4 bombardments.



Now, if a city has walls, it gains a 50% bombardment protection. The non-accuracy trebs take 12 or 13 bombardments to reach 0% defenses, and accuracy trebs take 8 bombardments. That is twice as many bombardments as a non-walled city can absorb.

If a city has a castle, it has a 75% bombardment protection. Non-accuracy trebs take 24 or 25 bombardments to take it to 0%, and accuracy trebs take around 16 bombardments. That is four times as many bombardments as a non-walled+non-castled city can absorb.

In the case where a castle is built and the culture defenses have already been knocked down 80%, then the city culture defense will become 20%.



Cannons only bombard city defense 12% a turn, less than trebs do, but they ignore castles and walls like they don't even exist. Non-accuracy cannons knock a city to 0% in 8 bombardments, and accuracy cannons knock a city to 0% in 5 bombardments.

I'm not really sure how to explain this clearly. Perhaps construct a test game with an enemy castle and some trebs for yourself :lol:
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by bcool

3) Kill the wizard details

Summary
Switch to Universal Sufferage T178
Buy boats T178, T179 (expensively), T180 (expensively) (no vassalage necessary) (a GG might be able to used to upgrade our galleons and so they wouldn't have to be purchased expensively the xp from the GG could give them flanking and navigation.)
Send at least 9 knights from Isengard on T180 to arrive and board boats on the coast next to Teotihuacon on T187 (Ideally send 3 knights on T179 which will upgrade to Cuirassiers in New York and arrive to board boats)

A GG should be sent to wizard killing city if it is born and can get to Wizard killing city by T181. This will save us a lot of gold since we can use him to upgrade the galleons and probably give a few knights more experience as well and get a few upgrade to a cuirassier ideally to boot.

Details and other options
We need a minimum of 9 knights if we can't get military tradition in time. More if possible. Ideally 3 of those knights at least will be cuirassiers.

Lesser units could be built now and upgraded. So chariots, horse archers, elephants, and knights can be upgraded to cuirassiers.

Let's assume that we need to win in 17 turns.

It will take galleons 7 turns to travel from the proposed western coastal city and the wizard (however... if we use a GG here, the boats bought here could be given 4+ xp, and pick up flanking and navigation I cutting travel time down to 5 turns)

If we assume the 7 turns of travel time we need to have the boats leave on T181. (boats move 4 on T181, T182, T183, T184, T185, T186 to coast of Teotihuacon, T187 move and attack, T188 attack again if necessary) (gives 1 extra turn of battle if we need it)

It takes 4 turns for a mounted unit to travel from Isengard to New York (wizard Killing city). Or it takes 8 turns for a non mounted unit to get there.
It takes 7 turns for a mounted unit to travel from Isengard to Teotihuacon's coast. As STW points out that we can board the boats later and not in New York.
If we want to have the mounted units to upgrade in New York then it will take 8 turns for them to travel from Isengard to Teotihuacon's coast.

The last mounted unit must leave from Isengard on T180 if they don't need to be upgraded. Mounted units we expect to upgrade in New York must leave T179.

We need a minimum of 9 amphibious knights to leave Isengard on T180 (no upgrades) We would like at least 3 cuirassiers which would have to be amphibious mounted units that would leave T179 from Isengard.

We need to buy boats from New York (Wizard Killing City) on T178, T179 expensive, T180 expensive. So we much switch to Universal Sufferage on T178.

Is this the latest plan? Is so, I'm not sure it works. If the units board on T187 outside Teotihuacon, then they can't attack on T187. They can hit on T188, but that doesn't leave time for a backup turn2 attack if we need it.
Click to expand...


If the knights leave Isengard on T180 then they move
T180, T181, T182, T183, T184, T185, T186 (board), T187 ready to attack.

I must have had a typo there.
If we don't want a 1 turn grace period, the knights could leave T181. If they want to be upgraded and we don't want a grace period they have to leave T180.

The reason for the grace period was mostly for safety rather than an extra turn of combat. The extra turn is so that we can recover from a small mistake moving the knights or placement of the galleon. It is always nice to have a safety margin. And knowing the result before we have to call for the vote as mabraham suggested.
 
mabraham said:
I'm pretty skeptical that allowing for a second turn attacking the wizard is useful. If we use all 9 units and don't kill the wizard, then at most we'll have 3 more units to attack a promotion-healed wizard, and our attacking units might not have full health. We won't have any follow-up units. Our airships won't be able to help. If we were to lose about 5 knights attacking the wizard, who has ducked the longbows we'd be down to about a 50% chance of killing him that turn. Would we ever stop attacking, wait for the wizard to heal, and hope our first attacker kills him first time next turn?

The value of a T187 attack on the wizard is that we know the result before we vote on T188. If we plan a T188 attack on the wizard and vote at the start of T188 assuming success, then the window for cuirassier upgrades is surely one turn wider (raising our Pk from 97% for 9 C2-amphibious knights to nearly certain), and we get one more knight from Isengard in the Eastern fray. The worst case is that we fail to kill the wizard and win our previously-committed UN vote and come last in the SGOTM. The best case is that that extra knight allows us to capture one more necessary city for winning the vote.
Click to expand...

The window isn't any wider, because I was pointing out that the current plan equated to a T188 attack, not a T187 attack, assuming that my theory about units having just boarded can't attack is true. We still need to have the cuirassier upgrade at the same time as before.

Current plan has a T187 boarding outside Teotihuacon coast. Departure date of T180 from Isengard if not upgraded. Departure date of T179 from Isengard if upgraded in New York.
I agree that the backup attack is of limited value. We'd have at most around 3-4 injured knights up against a wizard who defeated 5-6 knights and who has healed off the promos. Still it's better than nothing.

And the point about turning this into a 1st->last proposition in the overall competition is valid. Are we willing to take a 3% chance of losing this entirely?
 
If we don't build the Taj, I don't think we can get free civic changes on T183 or T188. We would have to go into revolt to get them. The point about not building Taj has merits too. I'm not sure now if we want it or not.
 
frogdude said:
The window isn't any wider, because I was pointing out that the current plan equated to a T188 attack, not a T187 attack, assuming that my theory about units having just boarded can't attack is true. We still need to have the cuirassier upgrade at the same time as before.

Current plan has a T187 boarding outside Teotihuacon coast. Departure date of T180 from Isengard if not upgraded. Departure date of T179 from Isengard if upgraded in New York.
I agree that the backup attack is of limited value. We'd have at most around 3-4 injured knights up against a wizard who defeated 5-6 knights and who has healed off the promos. Still it's better than nothing.

And the point about turning this into a 1st->last proposition in the overall competition is valid. Are we willing to take a 3% chance of losing this entirely?
Click to expand...


I think going for first place is the best move. Even if we don't get it, it was a real pleasure playing with you guys :D and getting nth place.
 
The only reason that we wouldn't send the knights early is if the war is going poorly and we don't have the votes.

I think we plan to send the knights 1 turn early and only take the risk of a T188 attack if the war is going poorly.
 
Maybe we compromise on the Taj Mahal. Build a knight in Stone first then we start the Taj Mahal build, if we lose the build than we get failure gold. If we don't lose the build well then we get the extra hammers and gold of a GA to get a few more units for the war.

Just checked we can get a knight in 2 turns in stone and then build Taj Mahal in 8 turns after that. so we might lose 1 turn of the GA.
I reject this idea and substitute another!

Build the Taj Mahal ASAP, give away Nationalism and hope the AI race us for it!

When we win the race we get to trade for their failure gold!
If we lose the race, not a big blow. We get the faulure gold.
 
frogdude said:
The window isn't any wider, because I was pointing out that the current plan equated to a T188 attack, not a T187 attack, assuming that my theory about units having just boarded can't attack is true. We still need to have the cuirassier upgrade at the same time as before.

Current plan has a T187 boarding outside Teotihuacon coast. Departure date of T180 from Isengard if not upgraded. Departure date of T179 from Isengard if upgraded in New York.
I agree that the backup attack is of limited value. We'd have at most around 3-4 injured knights up against a wizard who defeated 5-6 knights and who has healed off the promos. Still it's better than nothing.

And the point about turning this into a 1st->last proposition in the overall competition is valid. Are we willing to take a 3% chance of losing this entirely?
Click to expand...

3% is an upper bound on failure based on 9 C2 amphib knights with airship support. If we can get pinch on some knights, or get any cuirassier upgrades then we're basically home free. So if we are not upgrading or GG-promoting units, and not allowing for a follow-up wizard attack, then 9 knights leaving Isengard by T181 gives 97% chance of success in winning the SGOTM (board T187, fight T188, party T189).

If we can forecast MilTrad by T184(?) then some knights sent earlier than T181 can be upgraded and we can regard success as certain. If we can send a suitable GG to get Pinch(two knights) and Navigation(three galleons) action, we can regard success as certain. We won't be able to assess these until mid-turn-set, when a GG might be born or we understand how the economy is actually going. Sending at least one pair of knights a turn early is obviously a sound hedge plan.
 
Kaitzilla said:
If we don't build the Taj, I don't think we can get free civic changes on T183 or T188. We would have to go into revolt to get them.
Click to expand...

We're going to keep Theo and Free Market for the diplo. We're going back into Bureau T178 and staying there. We need US for the buys. Nobody's made a case for Slavery over Caste, and with population so tight I don't think there is one. So think our civics are locked in after T178.
 
mabraham said:
We're going to keep Theo and Free Market for the diplo. We're going back into Bureau T178 and staying there. We need US for the buys. Nobody's made a case for Slavery over Caste, and with population so tight I don't think there is one. So think our civics are locked in after T178.
Click to expand...

I was mostly thinking of Universal Sufferage from T178-T183. If we wanted to change back to Representation, or maybe Hereditary Rule for +1 relations with Elizabeth, it would have to occur T183 or later.
 
If we want to upgrade our knights for the wizard killing with military tradition. The absolute latest we can finish Military tradition is T183. That allows upgrades T184, new cuirassiers move T185, T186, T187 (board boats) T188 attack wizard.

So if we want cuirassiers we need mass media and military tradition in 11 turns
T173, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83

mass media 5616 and military tradition 3120 so a total of 8736 after modifiers
8736/1.2 = 7280 displayed research
7280/11 = 661 average displayed research
I think this is doable with limited research builds (assuming we don't have gold issues)
 
mabraham said:
I tried this out on my spreadsheet, which agreed with all the hammer outputs except the final total. I don't think this plan could switch off to the plains farm on the last turn.
Click to expand...

Thanks, my Hammer totals were both 4 too high. Thus my alternative would be short.

mabraham said:
However, we should be using the idea bcool suggested a few posts before this one, of swapping the gold to Silver and getting a Gworkshop back. This returns more food and hammers than the Gmine, breaks even on beakers, and sets up better for growth in Stone after Taj. Now the last population shuffles between 3 turns on the gold, 1 on plains farm and 4 on grass farm. It ends with four more food in the box, and I estimate that is just enough to secure two growths in Stone after Taj. I have details on my spreadsheet which I'll share when I've sorted out some other stuff.
Click to expand...

Sorry, I don't see bcool's plan as being any better. It reduces Silver City's growth from +3 Fpt to +2 Fpt for 4 turns. It seems to be identical to my plan with the exception of swapping the PH Gold Mine to Silver City for a Grassland Workshop.

The only difference is Silver City gets 4F less and Stone City 4F more. I don't see that as an improvement, since it slows down Silver City's grow by 4F net.

If the 4F saved in Stone City allows +2P, but reduces Silver City's growth by 1P, there's no net gain in Population.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
Taj Mahal

Build the Taj Mahal ASAP, give away Nationalism (well trade it for some spare change and Divine Right) and hope the AI races us for it!

When we win the race we get to trade for their failure gold!
If we lose the race, not a big blow. We get the faulure gold.
 
Sun Tzu Wu said:
Thanks, my Hammer totals were both 4 too high. Thus my alternative would be short.



Sorry, I don't see bcool's plan as being any better. It reduces Silver City's growth from +3 Fpt to +2 Fpt for 4 turns. It seems to be identical to my plan with the exception of swapping the PH Gold Mine to Silver City for a Grassland Workshop.

The only difference is Silver City gets 4F less and Stone City 4F more. I don't see that as an improvement, since it slows down Silver City's grow by 4F net.

If the 4F saved in Stone City allows +2P, but reduces Silver City's growth by 1P, there's no net gain in Population.

Sun Tzu Wu
Click to expand...

It is better to lose food from a city that isn't below half its food bar. There is a small gain to us if we take the food from Silver rather than Stone's granary food.
 
Sun Tzu Wu said:
Thanks, my Hammer totals were both 4 too high. Thus my alternative would be short.



Sorry, I don't see bcool's plan as being any better. It reduces Silver City's growth from +3 Fpt to +2 Fpt for 4 turns. It seems to be identical to my plan with the exception of swapping the PH Gold Mine to Silver City for a Grassland Workshop.

The only difference is Silver City gets 4F less and Stone City 4F more. I don't see that as an improvement, since it slows down Silver City's grow by 4F net.

If the 4F saved in Stone City allows +2P, but reduces Silver City's growth by 1P, there's no net gain in Population.

Sun Tzu Wu
Click to expand...

Hmm I was thinking that Silver City still had its granary run down and was a few population larger than Stone. I see now that the food box is half full. I guess things changed in Kait's turn set :) If Silver City was larger than Stone City, and both have had their granary run down, the extra food are more likely to become extra population in the smaller city, because that city needs less food to grow.

However we are under a bit of pressure for science, so I think that for the last 5 turns of rep, we should run some scientists in Silver instead of FWL and plains farm - basically spending that food in the box we built up last turn set. We're doing this in GPfarm for the same reason...

Given that condition, we're slightly more likely to grow Stone than Silver, so it is very slightly preferable that the former should have the Gworkshop. There's no difference in science multiplier between the two cities, of course.
 
bcool said:
It is nice to have spies in multiple cities of the AI we hope to vote for us as insurance. they would be used to switch them back to taoism or out of free religion if necessary. I'd like to have at least 2 spies in 2 (3 if possible) different cities of Gandhi, Genghis, Elizabeth, and Monty if at all possible by T182 so that we have 5 turns of stationary bonus by T187.
Click to expand...

I agree that we should have at least two spies in different cities of the Good Witch of the West, Wicked Watch of the West, Good Witch of the North and Wicked Witch of the North. Two of the cities will probably be Trojan Horse and Boston. We should plan to get them to their destinations at least 5t before we plan to use them to accumulate stationary bonus. We will need a few extra Galleons to do this efficiently.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
bcool said:
mabraham continues to report turn dates that are 1 after when they actually occur.
Click to expand...

We all agreed, even before SGOTM-114 officially started, that we would report all game completions (usually Great/National Wonders) as the turn number/date the game says they occurred in.

It is confusing to have to translate such turn numbers back one to compensate for this "bad" habit.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
Sun Tzu Wu said:
We all agreed, even before SGOTM-114 officially started, that we would report all game completions (usually Great/National Wonders) as the turn number/date the game says they occurred in.

It is confusing to have to translate such turn numbers back one to compensate for this "bad" habit.

Sun Tzu Wu
Click to expand...

Yeah, sorry. My brain only cares about things completing when we can then do things with or about them, rather than when we take the action to cause their completion. Since it's not easy to find out the turn number on which the game reports completion (because the logs are all in dates) I have never attempted to train myself to follow a rule whose mechanics I don't know. If there's some way to find this out, I'm all ears.
 
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