What if the Europeans hadn't discovered the New World until 1692?

Who are you arguing with, here? I'm saying that guns were not a particularly decisive factor in the European invasions of the Americas, and they weren't. Indians resisted European incursion with bows as well as with guns. The gun had certain advantages and the bow had certain advantages, and eventually the gun won out (although not until a good century after the period that Phrossack and I were talking about), but that doesn't imply that Europeans were able to conquer the Americas because they had guns. You're muddling two entirely different issues.
 
There are apparently good reasons to assume that there were already hundreds of guns in circulation among the Indians by 1650, at least by what is presented here:
http://www.amazon.com/Most-Pernicio...WJ0_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1407220265&sr=1-1
I was talking about 1590.


And indeed pretty much the only reason bows would have been preferred over guns, of any kind, was the lack of availability. And as long as there were multiple rival european factions present and providing trade and gifts, availability of guns and ammunition wasn't much of a problem, apparently.
Depends on the timeframe. In the 16th and 17th centuries, there was not that much of a firearm trade with the natives, and in any case firearms were not automatically a better weapon than a good bow in the hands of a skilled archer, of whom the natives had plenty. This is not a sign of native "primitiveness," since the English themselves clung to the bow well into the 16th century!

Even later, firearms and ammunition were not always that plentiful, since even at Little Bighorn many native men wielded bows, clubs, hatchets, and spears.

I'm not so sure the Comanche are making any kind of repesentative case, if that story is indeed correct. On the northern plains, guns, any guns were prized possesions, and even small numbers had a significant impact.
As far as I can tell, the Comanches preferred traditional weapons. Firearms in the late 18th and early 19th century were often clumsy to use from horseback, and the Comanche always fought mounted when possible. They seem to have done just fine with bows and spears, since they terrorized and devastated northern Mexico for decades and were done in more by disease than anything else. Indeed, at the same time plenty of European cavalry used lances and swords as standard weapons quite effectively in a more dangerous environment.

From what I have read on the French and Indian War, bows were pretty much obsolete by that time, and securing guns and ammo supply for the Indians, and trying to cut it off by their respective enemies were extremely important objectives.
By the mid-18th century, societies which fought on foot and had plenty of trade with firearm-producing societies definitely got as many guns as they could. Nobody's disputing that.


I never quite got those arguments. The historical record seems to show that almost anywhere where there was a real choice between guns and bows, guns were used, even by "warrior peoples" where the time for training wasn't an issue. Certainly so by the time flintlocks came around.

How exactly are bows, of any kind, outranging guns, of any kind? Even crappy guns have a much, much higher muzzle velocity than the best bows. A lead ball is much less affected by wind and foliage than an arrow.
Even a smoothbore musket with a very large windage will put about half of the shots into a man sized target at hundred yards on the shooting stand, a distance where an Indian archer would probably not even try to hit a target.

Higher rate of fire is the only argument that makes sense to me, yet this would be more than counterbalanced by a much, much large wound effect of a musket ball compared to an arrow.
And for the skirmish and ambush type of warfare in the eastern woodlands, rate of fire is probably not much of an issue in the first place.

Arrows won't penetrate armor and shields in most cases, where only under rare circumstances armor or shields would be effective against guns.

Guns do indeed tend to have better range, power*, and accuracy than bows, but you're focusing on mid-18th century Eastern Woodlands combat and I'm not. Armor and shields were rarely significant factors in fighting between native peoples, and by the time a lot of natives got guns, few if any Europeans used them anymore.

*It's not entirely relevant to who wins the engagement, but arrows can cause pretty nightmarish wounds. The American Dr. Joseph Howland Bill's 22-page essay "Notes on Arrow Wounds" was written in 1862, and contains some pretty cringeworthy sections, as summarized here. He treated dozens of cases, and noted that arrow wounds were often more lethal and harder to treat than gunshot wounds. Of 36 men hit in the torso, 22 died. He also noted that the bow's rate of shot meant that his cases were almost always hit multiple times; three unlucky soldiers had 42 wounds between them. Yet the bow's low stopping power meant that even with so many wounds, people often survived.

Still, this shows that bows were still used frequently in combat well into the mid- to late-19th century, and that they could be lethal. Obviously, natives who fought on foot preferred guns by this time period, but I was originally discussing the 16th and 17th centuries, not the mid-18th century onward.
 
The historical record seems to show that almost anywhere where there was a real choice between guns and bows, guns were used, even by "warrior peoples" where the time for training wasn't an issue. Certainly so by the time flintlocks came around.

The Japanese and Arabs* banned guns because they saw them as cowardly. Eventually, they'd use guns, too, but they refused for a really long time.

*see below
 
My understanding was that the Japanese banned guns because they saw them as a disruptive social influence. By the early 17th century they were probably the most capable producers and users of firearms in the world, but they gave peasants the ability to kill far beyond their social status, which was seen as a threat to the domination of the samurai class.
 
My understanding was that the Japanese banned guns because they saw them as a disruptive social influence. By the early 17th century they were probably the most capable producers and users of firearms in the world, but they gave peasants the ability to kill far beyond their social status, which was seen as a threat to the domination of the samurai class.

If my understanding of human nature if correct, this banning should have been the precipitator of a vast armed revolt. There are few things as likely to suggest weakness, not strength, as absolute prohibition. So why didn't this happen? Sort of poses a challenge for determinism, when you see a culture actively holding itself back on arbitrary principles.
 
The Japanese and Arabs banned guns because they saw them as cowardly. Eventually, they'd use guns, too, but they refused for a really long time.
The Japanese extensively used firearms from as soon as the Portuguese brought them until Tokugawa Ieyasu had completely unified Japan. Sengoku Japan produced huge amounts of arquebuses of a design based on Portuguese weapons but with Japanese changes. The arquebus became one of the dominant weapons of the 16th century in Japan, and even the samurai were known to use them.

Only once the Tokugawa Ieyasu unified Japan were firearms banned, along with all other weapons in the hands of civilians. He did this to preserve his rule by preventing any possible uprising from anyone, rather than out of any contempt for firearms.

And I've never heard of Arabs banning early firearms.

Thanks, especially for that link :)
Bitte!
 
Oda Nobunaga used guns to a great effect in his conquests. His most famous use of them would be in the battle of Nagashino. So no the Japanese didn't ban guns, the Tokugawa shogunate did, to limit the ability of commoners and the daimyo to fight back and as part of their general policy to prevent change from occurring within Japan. This didn't stop the really determined Daimyos though.
 
And I've never heard of Arabs banning early firearms.

hmmm, pretty sure i read that somewhere a long time ago, but the closest thing that i can find right now is on page 129 of R.G. Grant's book called Battle: "Egyptian historian Ibn Zabul relates that the Mamelukes appealed to the Ottomans [during their Egyptian wars in the early 1500s] to stop using cannons and the 'contrivance artfully devised by the Christians,' the arquebus." that's really neither of the things that I claimed, so I'll just chalk it up to poor memory and posting on an internet forum from my phone while I was at work.



and yes, i posted an amazon link because i'm too lazy to actually cite it correctly :p


Oda Nobunaga used guns to a great effect in his conquests. His most famous use of them would be in the battle of Nagashino. So no the Japanese didn't ban guns, the Tokugawa shogunate did, to limit the ability of commoners and the daimyo to fight back and as part of their general policy to prevent change from occurring within Japan. This didn't stop the really determined Daimyos though.
the tokugawa shogunate was the defacto national government of japan for the better part of 300 years, so saying that the tokugawa shogunate banned something is the same thing as saying that japan banned it. and of course there were guns in japan before they were banned, otherwise they wouldn't have been banned in the first place. and of course there were still people who had guns after they were banned, just like there are still people with guns in countries that ban them today.


edit:
but either way, to avoid more semantic debates, these are two pretty glaring examples of times when people shunned firearms, which was my argument in the first place. i guess they would still fall under the "almost anywhere" condition, but that's neither here nor there.
 
Ah, yes. The Mamluks seem to have rejected firearms in the 16th century. They were mainly of Circassian origin by this time, and their once excellent tactics and equipment had stagnated and fossilized. The Mamluks were drunk with success, supremely overconfident by this time, skipped training for illegal activities such as having families and running businesses, and became stuck in their old ways, and got shot to rags by the Ottomans for it. Not like their glory days in the late 13th/early 14th centuries.
 
I think the biggest change would actually be in Europe itself, as a result of the absence of the economic (and indirectly, political) consequences of American colonisation.

How about the effect on population from new world crops like potatoes or corn? Better calorie providers, and so allowed for significantly greater populations.

When did the new world crops start kicking in?

I do know that pellagra started being recognized as a disease in Europe the early 1700s, and you generally only get pellagra where you have people getting most of their calories from un... - excuse me a moment - from un-nixtamalized corn.
 
My understanding was that the Japanese banned guns because they saw them as a disruptive social influence. By the early 17th century they were probably the most capable producers and users of firearms in the world, but they gave peasants the ability to kill far beyond their social status, which was seen as a threat to the domination of the samurai class.

I think it was this, along with the natural extension of the sword hunt. Just instead of only swords, they collected guns as well. And guns just kind of fell out of fashion after that.

EDIT: Upon reading a quick wiki article, apparently this is attributed to Hideyoshi's sword hunt, which kind of conflicts a bit considering the extensive use of guns in the Korean campaigns.

The more likely reason for the banning of guns by the Tokugawa shogunate was the reason I posited above, just a permanent extension of the sword hunt.

If my understanding of human nature if correct, this banning should have been the precipitator of a vast armed revolt. There are few things as likely to suggest weakness, not strength, as absolute prohibition. So why didn't this happen? Sort of poses a challenge for determinism, when you see a culture actively holding itself back on arbitrary principles.

You do see a lot of discontent during a sword hunt, Hideyoshi's in particular is very well known due to extensiveness and how much it riled up the population. Of course, most of the possible rebels to his regime would probably go and die in Korea, which brings me to this:

You have to place yourself in the correct historical context. This particular sword hunt and ban took place after two failed invasions of Korea, which depleted the manpower and, well, power in general, of most western daiymos in Japan, specifically on Kyushu. In fact, it was one of the reasons Tokugawa was able to usurp the Shogunate from control of Hideyoshi's son, as he was able to gain favor in eastern Japan, who had committed far less troops to Korea than the west.

Coupled with post-invasion war weariness, mass depletion of fighting age men in Korea, and Tokugawa's short war in itself, I'm not sure the people left really would want to continue fighting.

and even the samurai were known to use them.

Heh, a bit mildly put. I've read that samurai absolutely loved their guns.
 
You do see a lot of discontent during a sword hunt, Hideyoshi's in particular is very well known due to extensiveness and how much it riled up the population. Of course, most of the possible rebels to his regime would probably go and die in Korea, which brings me to this:

You have to place yourself in the correct historical context. This particular sword hunt and ban took place after two failed invasions of Korea, which depleted the manpower and, well, power in general, of most western daiymos in Japan, specifically on Kyushu. In fact, it was one of the reasons Tokugawa was able to usurp the Shogunate from control of Hideyoshi's son, as he was able to gain favor in eastern Japan, who had committed far less troops to Korea than the west.

Coupled with post-invasion war weariness, mass depletion of fighting age men in Korea, and Tokygawa's short war in itself, I'm not sure the people left really would want to continue fighting.

I'm not talking about a "sword hunt," I'm talking about the Japanese ban on guns.
 
His point is that the ban on guns was part of a larger set of policies on the private ownership of weapons, and that if people weren't going to rebel against the "sword hunts", they weren't going to rebel against the prohibition of guns.

I'm not sure that's really a sufficient explanation, because the "sword hunts" were directed at commoners and defeated samurai, while the ban on guns mostly effected the aristocracy, but his general point that Japan was pretty much all fought out remains true. The samurai who had reason to rebel against the policy were the most beaten down by the civil wars, and those who were best positioned to rebel had more to gain from a strong shogunate. What's more, guns were never actually banned outright, they were just put under heavy restrictions (iirc, production was restricted to Edo and the shogunate had a monopoly on their distribution), so loyal aristocrats could still maintain a healthy cache of guns, as many as they could expect to need in peace-time.

The thing to keep in mind is that the prohibitions on guns came packaged as part of a sweeping program of reforms which centralised power and excluded Western influences, so whatever appearance of weakness there would be if the Tokugawa shogunate had simply panicked and tried to ban all guns was outweighed by the appearance of strength associated with carrying out what amounted to a top-down revolution.
 
forgot to mention the Viking(Norse) exploration and settling in north east of North America (Newfoundland and Labrador) prior to the "great discovery" by Columbus as well as the quite possible Chinese one as well.
Were the Norse settlement(s) later destroyed or abandoned? What happened to their Norse populace?
Finally, a silly question perhaps, is there any possible truth to the legend of the Welsh prince Madoc (Madog ab Owain Gwynedd), who was said to have sailed to and discovered and settled (along with a few hundred colonists) a new land in the west in the year 1170?
 
forgot to mention the Viking(Norse) exploration and settling in north east of North America (Newfoundland and Labrador) prior to the "great discovery" by Columbus as well as the quite possible Chinese one as well.
Were the Norse settlement(s) later destroyed or abandoned? What happened to their Norse populace?
Finally, a silly question perhaps, is there any possible truth to the legend of the Welsh prince Madoc (Madog ab Owain Gwynedd), who was said to have sailed to and discovered and settled (along with a few hundred colonists) a new land in the west in the year 1170?

Madoc's story is almost certainly a fiction. Many coastal societies have stories of people falling asleep in boats/getting lost in a storm and turning up in a mystical faraway land. Madoc's only has bite because of the presence of some Welsh-ish words in one Georgian language. There's really no way you can travel from the Irish Sea to Georgia on a coracle and survive.

As to the other part, the Norse settlement in North America was almost certainly abandoned or died out to starvation/weather/disease. With such a small population and such an irregular contact with Europe it wasn't likely from the start that Vinland was going to succeed. Look and Jamestown and Roanoke. Initial colonial endeavors require massive amounts of effort and capital (both monetary and political) to get off the ground. You need money to send constant streams of supplies, political organization to get (read: force) people to sail for several months across an ocean to resupply a remote village, a village which is almost certainly overrun with disease and starvation. Why bother when there are perfectly good, less insane colonies in Iceland and Ireland to see to? Scandinavia simply didn't have the interest nor political media necessary to make Vinland happen. Too politically fractured, too poor, too geographically separated, and there were much more fruitful places to see to elsewhere.
 
Disease would have most likely hit as hard regardless.
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Perhaps its plausible that a ship at drift could have reached the Americas prior to Columbus, carrying European/Asian/African disease in between 1492 and 1692, allowing for the population to build up immunity. If that happened, there would be dramatic differences in population/demographics compared to today. But random ships sailing that far west would be a bit strange outside of expeditions. Abu Bakr II's reported expedition west - or at least the story of it in history also shows that Africa would be an unlikely source of a ship at drift, seeing how the story was considered a folly by the Mansa.
 
Yeah, I think that massive disease-related death is pretty much inevitable, whenever contact occurred. I don't think that accidental voyages would make a lot of difference, either, because in the first place most of the Americas was too thinly settled for disease resulting from a single incident of contact to spread any great distance, and in the second it wasn't any individual disease that did the damage, but the constant barrage of diseases. (There was actually an outbreak of smallpox in 16th century Mexico that killed proportionally less people than a roughly contemporary one in Spain: the problem for the Mexica was that their outbreak followed and was followed by other equally destructive disease, while the Spaniards could expect at least a generation's breathing room before anything similarly unpleasant.) Even if you, say, introduced smallpox into pre-Columbian Mexico with the result that the population successfully develop immunity, that doesn't protect them from bubonic plague or from cholera, and isn't likely to held instil a similar immunity in the populations around the Great Lakes or the Amazon.

For all we know, the Norse may have introduced some European disease or other into Vinland, but because the locals were hunter-gatherers, it burned itself out before spreading beyond the immediate vicinity.
 
i just remembered that i read in 1493 that potatoes starting becoming a major staple crop in europe beginning in the 16th century and taking off in the 17th century. so if potatoes aren't around in 1692 i imagine that the growth rate of europe would be much less.
 
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